Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[advo-cate]

MH370 - What is the current situation?

Good to see MH370 finally getting some air in Australia.

ATSB update to the Senate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7Mw...ature=youtu.be

Some interesting facts I was not aware of.

The senators certainly were asking some serious questions. All the individual segments in order are grouped out on this site. They are worth reading in context.

Here is a direct quote from Hansard - Senate papers

Page 156 Senate Tuesday, 24 February 2015
RURAL AND REGIONAL AFFAIRS AND TRANSPORT LEGISLATION COMMITTEE

Senator BACK: Mr Foley, can you just give us a very brief update on the progress of the MH370 recovery and the number of vessels now in the recovery operation?
Mr Foley: I am the Program Director, Operational Search for MH370. We have currently got four vessels working in the search area. Three of those are contracted jointly by the Malaysian and Australian governments. They are the Fugro vessels—the Fugro Supporter, the Fugro Equator, the Fugro Discovery—
Senator BACK: Those are the Dutch vessels?
Mr Foley: Dutch mother company. The actual local company is based here in Australia. It is Fugro Survey Pty Ltd. The contract is with them as the Australian entity. The fourth vessel, GO Phoenix, is actually contracted by DefTech, a Malaysian defence contractor.
Senator BACK: Can you tell us approximately the number of square kilometres of the priority area that have now been searched and what does that represent percentage wise—35, 50?
Mr Foley: We have done about 24,000 square kilometres, which represents about 40 per cent of the initial priority search area of 60,000 square kilometres.
Senator BACK: Can you give us some indication when you think that that balance of about another 3˝ thousand square kilometres—
Mr Foley: In what sense?
Senator BACK: When will you have completed the search of this priority zone?
Mr Foley: We anticipate that 60,000 square kilometres will be completed towards the end of May.
Senator BACK: Can you give us any indication whether the four vessels have come up with anything of interest or promise?
Mr Foley: The four vessels have certainly identified various objects on the sea floor, which may be man-made. But at this point—we have expert analysis of the sonar data and imagery—there is nothing that indicates that it is likely to be an aircraft debris field. There are some isolated objects which, by and large, could be man-made but we have not positively identified any of them as such.
Senator BACK: Are you saying that preparations are in place in the event that wreckage is found?
Mr Foley: Yes, we have been making preparations. As you may be aware, we requested expressions of interest for a recovery operation. We ran a 25-day open tender process through AusTender. That closed last week. We are in the process of assessing those expressions of interest to participate in a further tender process for the recovery operation.
Senator BACK: So there was a level of interest, competence and expertise to do that?
Mr Foley: There was a good response.
Senator BACK: Thank you.
Mr Dolan: Senator, if I could just make clear: governments have not yet decided or authorised recovery. We are making preparations against the event of—
Senator BACK: I can understand that. Thanks, Mr Dolan.
Senator STERLE: These four items—are they the size of a suitcase or a desk?
Mr Foley: More than four, Senator Sterle. We have a system of classification. We are very careful in the way we treat the sonar data in terms of its acquisition, how we gather it and indeed how we assess and analyse it. We have a system of classification for objects, so we have three levels, if you like—one, two and three. Level 3 is items of potential interest—an object detected on sonar of some interest. Level 2 is likely to be something that is a bit more interesting, probably man-made. A level 1 object we need to investigate immediately. It could be an aircraft debris field. We have not had any level 1s. We have, to date, according to my memory, had about eight level 2s. And we have had well over 100 level 3s. I would hazard a guess that some have the dimensions of a shipping container, but we do not know until we get photo imagery. You are not taking a picture with sonar.
Senator STERLE: Thank you.

[Obba]

Just heard on the Australian news that they (don't know who 'they' are), will be putting forward 15minute tracking onto planes flying over remote areas instead of the 30-45minute intervals.

[Johno8]

Here's more info.
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 mystery prompts new plane tracking program - World - CBC News

[Robbovic]

It's called Automatic Dependent Surveillance Contract - ADS-C
It is and has been used extensively in Australian airspace for a number of years. It entails the aircraft establishing a "contract" with the ATC centre through a satellite link - aircraft downloads positional and other info at the contract rate. This is usually 30 minutes but can be varied by the controller with jurisdiction - in fact he can "one shot" a position at any time and can increase the rate in case of emergency. In between downloads, the position is extrapolated by the ATC equipment.
The procedure is being trialled of setting the default contract to 15 minutes.
The give-away is the "Dependent" bit - can still be turned off in the cockpit and bingo the aircraft's real position is purely supposition.

[Ian W]

Yes ADS-C is part of Future Air Navigation System 1/A (FANS 1/A) that also includes CPDLC and ACARS. The system was put into use initially by Boeing in the late 1980's so it has been around for around 4 decades. The ADS-C contract can be with up to 5 ground stations world wide. The ground stations as you say can re-contract without the pilot even knowing and request other position reports or reports on level changes and leveling etc etc.

ADS-C is being extended in Europe and USA to use VHF Data Link (2) (VDL-2) and will be used to control aircraft flying business (user preferred) trajectories. So one of the new messages will be Extended Projected Profile (ADS-C EPP) a series of up to 128 waypoints and pseudo waypoints ahead of the aircraft with their associated attributes/constraints such as speed, flight level, time. (Pseudo waypoints are for example Top Of Climb, Start Of Turn). Again the ground can ask and your FMC will reply you don't even know it has happened. This is all part of ATN-Block 2

Hey but don't stop the ICAO meetings and standards people re-inventing things the avionics salesmen love it.

[konstantin]

Robbovic

That too was my initial (puzzled) reaction - it seems all they are doing is creating an automatic contract change trigger which increases the ADSC update rate whenever there is an altitude or route deviation event?

And I am certainly a little confused at the meedja fanfare this is receiving. From the CBC article linked by Johno8;

Houston warned that new method being trialed would not necessarily have allowed air traffic controllers to monitor Flight 370 — whose transponder and other tracking equipment shut down during the flight — to the point where it crashed.
"I think we've got to be very, very careful because you can turn this system off," he said. "What would have happened while the system is operating, we'd know exactly where the aircraft was. If somebody had turned the system off, we're in the same set of circumstances as we've experienced on the latter part of the flight of MH370."

So we are back to square one anyway...the point of the exercise being...?

[DrPhillipa]

Is the point of the excercise that they will make ADSC subscription compulsory in the relevant airspaces?

[thf]

That's it?

Reuters: Australia says hunt for missing MH370 jet may be called off soon

(Reuters) - The search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 cannot go on forever, Australia's deputy prime minister said, and discussions are already under way between Australia, China and Malaysia as to whether to call off the hunt within weeks. (...)

The search of a rugged 60,000 sq km (23,000 sq mile) patch of sea floor some 1,600 km (1,000 miles) west of the Australian city of Perth, which experts believe is the plane's most likely resting place, will likely be finished by May.

Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss told Reuters that a decision would have to be taken well before then as to whether to continue into the vast 1.1 million sq km area around the primary search zone if nothing has been found.

Discussions had already begun about what to do in that event, including the possibility that the search might be called off, said Truss, who is also transport minister.

[rh200]

Discussions and possibility are the key words. All very prudent to reevaluate the data instead of just continuing to spend money.

Mind you I suppose the scientific community wouldn't mind a complete hi resolution map of the Indian ocean

[atakacs]

Somewhat off topic but do we have robotic technology to perform that mapping task? Or is it a tedious manned operation?

[mm43]

@atakacs

The following link will give you a good insight into how the mapping operation has been undertaken.

'Mapping the deep ocean: Geoscience Australia and the search for MH370'

[ATC Watcher]

DrPhillipa

Is the point of the excercise that they will make ADSC subscription compulsory in the relevant airspaces?

No the point of this perticular trial is to assess the load on the ATC system if the interrogation rate is increased to every 15 min instead of 20-30.
Nothing to do with MH370, and , as said previously , it would not have changed anything if the rate had been 15 min at the time.

[Ian W]

Originally Posted by ATC Watcher

No the point of this perticular trial is to assess the load on the ATC system if the interrogation rate is increased to every 15 min instead of 20-30.
Nothing to do with MH370, and , as said previously , it would not have changed anything if the rate had been 15 min at the time.

I don't see that there is any "load on the ATC system" If you want to fly one of the more popular tracks on the North Atlantic under the Reduced Longitudinal Separation Method, you will be reporting on ADS-C every 4 minutes.
BEA after AFR447 asked for reports as often as once every 1 minute.

Most carriers are now paying a fixed annual rate for ADS-C unlike the old days of pay per transmission. So there is no benefit by not using ADS-C. If the Air Traffic Service Provider in the airspace you are flying in does not use ADS-C you have up to 5 connections that can be made so contract with your FOC/Dispatch and they can track you.

Once you have a secure internet link to SITA/ARINC displaying and storing ADS-C positions is extremely simple.

Of course while this means that the regulators can say that they are "doing something" ADS-C update rate change would have no effect on a future MH370 scenario where the 'cooperative' / Active tracking devices are switched off.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by thf

Reuters: Australia says hunt for missing MH370 jet may be called off soon

Searches cost money. There is not infinite budget for such a search.
Who would fund the continuing effort beyond point in time "X" is a pertinent question.

[ATC Watcher]

Ian W

I don't see that there is any "load on the ATC system" If you want to fly one of the more popular tracks on the North Atlantic [....] you will be reporting on ADS-C every 4 minutes.

My comment was not a speculation but a fact. The South Indian Ocean airpace is not the North Atlantic , and data link processing load is an issue for the Australian system, hence the trial.

Of course while this means that the regulators can say that they are "doing something" ADS-C update rate change would have no effect on a future MH370 scenario where the 'cooperative' / Active tracking devices are switched off.

There we agree 100%

[Ian W]

Originally Posted by ATC Watcher

My comment was not a speculation but a fact. The South Indian Ocean airpace is not the North Atlantic , and data link processing load is an issue for the Australian system, hence the trial.

But ADS-C (Automatic Dependent Surveilance - Contract) is addressable SATCOM, with up to 5 contracts that can be held concurrently. So you could have a contract with any agency worldwide, including your own dispatch. ADS-C cannot overload the air traffic service provider of the airspace the aircraft is flying in, if they are contracted to receive the ADS-C they merely have to store the data - a short data message every 15 minutes.. The South Indian Ocean Airspace is indeed different to the North Atlantic. It is extremely sparsely flown whereas the North Atlantic is ~2000+ flights a day.

[kaikohe76]

After almost a year of highly professional & concentrated searching of the ocean to the west of Perth, so far without any sign at all, or any indication no matter how minor, that the 777 may be there. Can I suggest a couple of things please.
- Despite the vast majority of genuine experts, saying, this is where the aircraft is almost certainly to be found. Perhaps in fact this is not the case at all & before the search is scaled down or terminated, all other areas of interest should at least be checked.
- Are we absolutely sure the 777, once having recrossed Malaysia from east to west, did in fact fly south west & not anywhere to the north.

- Surely if the 777 is where most of the search agencies think it is, west of Perth, some even small part of the aircraft would have come to the ocean surface by now.
- I am still of the opinion, that certain people & or agencies from the missing aircraft's home country, may well have information that for whatever reason continues to be with held & so far not made public.

My thoughts only, but someone knows something out there & is so far not letting on.

[Ian W]

The Doppler tracing and tracking carried out by INMARSAT on the SATCOM signals plus validation testing against other aircraft would put the aircraft in the area being searched. It is not possible for the aircraft to have gone North and still provided the same Doppler signals. These calculations have also been checked by a considerable number of mathematicians.

There _is_ some discussion on the actual fuel burn that the aircraft could have made as it is thought to have made at least one low pass before flying South this could lead to an along track error that would have the aircraft crash/ditching site further North.

[rh200]

- Surely if the 777 is where most of the search agencies think it is, west of Perth, some even small part of the aircraft would have come to the ocean surface by now

40% is the figure I think you will find. Not sure if the search area is sub broken up with most likely spots, but if it isn't, and there's equal probability of it being any where in the area, then theres just as much chance of finding it on the final day as the first.

As for bits, awful big ocean and planet out there.

[RetiredF4]

Ian W

The Doppler tracing and tracking carried out by INMARSAT on the SATCOM signals plus validation testing against other aircraft would put the aircraft in the area being searched. It is not possible for the aircraft to have gone North and still provided the same Doppler signals. These calculations have also been checked by a considerable number of mathematicians.

But that is only true for an aircraft which after last radar contact to the northwest turned south and flew then with constant altitude, speed and track , which are the assumptions and led to the present search area.


An aircraft maneuvering in altitude, speed and track could be anywhere on a position close to the south arc and to the north arc.


Under the above assumptions they search at the most probable positions, but those are not exclusive and might be off by thousands of miles.