Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Iam W " totally correct , it is how it is done and I would even argue how it SHOULD be done.
WillowRun 6-3 : You have to realise hat the current system works extremely well , it is based on years of global experience and cover all cases to 1 to the minus 9 .
It is indeed frustrating for everyone not to understand what happenned, but most of us believe it was most probably a deliberate act by someone who knew exactly what he ( or they) were doing.
I do not think changing ATC ,SAR or military regulations will prevent another case like this to happen again.
WillowRun 6-3 : You have to realise hat the current system works extremely well , it is based on years of global experience and cover all cases to 1 to the minus 9 .
It is indeed frustrating for everyone not to understand what happenned, but most of us believe it was most probably a deliberate act by someone who knew exactly what he ( or they) were doing.
I do not think changing ATC ,SAR or military regulations will prevent another case like this to happen again.
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ATSB Report
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5205507..._FactSheet.pdf
The last ACARS message received contained the fuel remaining...
It will take at least another month to get the ACARS data.
The last ACARS message received contained the fuel remaining...
It will take at least another month to get the ACARS data.
Last edited by sSquares; 26th May 2014 at 16:43.
Thanks VME. That first fact sheet is fascinating reading.
It appears Inmarsat have been looking at these techniques since AF447. Certainly the range from the satellite stuff anyway. The doppler derived estimated of course and speed may have been more recent.
They have the fuel remaining at time of last ACARS. From this they believe fuel exhaustion would have occurred close to the last handshake.
And they seem to think last handshake was logon request from aircraft, consistent with aircraft equipment powering up - possibly following fuel exhaustion. So that fits with fuel calculations.
They also believe aircraft was descending at this time.
Intriguingly, they quote that study (Russian from memory) that suggests that in loss of control accidents the aircraft is usually found within 20NM of the last known position. So is there a suggestion they believe there was loss of control at the end - as opposed to a long glide from altitude and a controlled ditching.
Lots of independent validation, which is reassuring.
It appears Inmarsat have been looking at these techniques since AF447. Certainly the range from the satellite stuff anyway. The doppler derived estimated of course and speed may have been more recent.
They have the fuel remaining at time of last ACARS. From this they believe fuel exhaustion would have occurred close to the last handshake.
And they seem to think last handshake was logon request from aircraft, consistent with aircraft equipment powering up - possibly following fuel exhaustion. So that fits with fuel calculations.
They also believe aircraft was descending at this time.
Intriguingly, they quote that study (Russian from memory) that suggests that in loss of control accidents the aircraft is usually found within 20NM of the last known position. So is there a suggestion they believe there was loss of control at the end - as opposed to a long glide from altitude and a controlled ditching.
Lots of independent validation, which is reassuring.
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Intriguingly, they quote that study (Russian from memory) that suggests that in loss of control accidents the aircraft is usually found within 20NM of the last known position.
There is no clear suggestion about whether it was loss of control or not.
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From Considerations on defining the search area - MH370 :
Figure 4: MH370 timing (UTC) with corresponding rings arrowed
The center of each ring has to be the Inmarsat 3F1 Lat and Long at the time of the ring. How could they be concentric with the sat moving north-south?
Figure 4: MH370 timing (UTC) with corresponding rings arrowed
The center of each ring has to be the Inmarsat 3F1 Lat and Long at the time of the ring. How could they be concentric with the sat moving north-south?
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Arcs, handshakes, and satellite
The center of each ring has to be the Inmarsat 3F1 Lat and Long at the time of the ring. How could they be concentric with the sat moving north-south?
And no doubt the other side of the rings showon would be thru area 51 !!
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Alternatively, projecting the circles onto a sphere may be making them look more concentric than they are.
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OK.
From their path above north Sumatra coast, the 18:28 and the 21:41 rings are separated by about 1°. But, effectivly, between those times, the sat moved very few to south. For the other rings, the drawing is too small to see the difference.
Sorry for this uneducated issue.
From their path above north Sumatra coast, the 18:28 and the 21:41 rings are separated by about 1°. But, effectivly, between those times, the sat moved very few to south. For the other rings, the drawing is too small to see the difference.
Sorry for this uneducated issue.
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Good that there is a factsheet out now.
But I am still surprised about some "facts".
E.g. the Last SSR position is followed by a right turn and then a left turn in the colors of a SSR track (or what do the colors mean?).
The yellow primary track starts after a gap in coverage more westerly.
We know from Flightradar24 ADS-B data, that the airplane made a right turn along the airway, indeed. But we did not know about the left turn, because ADS-B data ended before it started.
It MAY be Vietnam SSR data that helped here, but why is it not indicated as such?
Even if such details may not be too relevant to the public there are so many educated spectators of this event out here, that the investigators should treat any release of facts with utmost care and let outstanding people check it before its release.
Otherwise they may heat conspiracy theories, certainly unwanted.
But I am still surprised about some "facts".
E.g. the Last SSR position is followed by a right turn and then a left turn in the colors of a SSR track (or what do the colors mean?).
The yellow primary track starts after a gap in coverage more westerly.
We know from Flightradar24 ADS-B data, that the airplane made a right turn along the airway, indeed. But we did not know about the left turn, because ADS-B data ended before it started.
It MAY be Vietnam SSR data that helped here, but why is it not indicated as such?
Even if such details may not be too relevant to the public there are so many educated spectators of this event out here, that the investigators should treat any release of facts with utmost care and let outstanding people check it before its release.
Otherwise they may heat conspiracy theories, certainly unwanted.
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Otherwise they may heat conspiracy theories, certainly unwanted.
Last edited by olasek; 26th May 2014 at 21:22.
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ATSB - Shape of Search Area
From ATSB Fact Sheet
At the time MH370 reached the 7th arc, the aircraft is considered to have been descending. A study completed after the Air France 447 accident concluded that the majority of aircraft in loss of control accidents were found within 20 nautical miles (32 km) of their last known position. This provides a reasonable limitation for the size of the search area across the arc.
At the time MH370 reached the 7th arc, the aircraft is considered to have been descending. A study completed after the Air France 447 accident concluded that the majority of aircraft in loss of control accidents were found within 20 nautical miles (32 km) of their last known position. This provides a reasonable limitation for the size of the search area across the arc.
- The distance of the impact point from the initial point of upset depends mostly on the type of upset and, sometimes (in dives and unclosed spirals), from the duration of coming down. In spins and closed spirals the impact point location has significantly lower correlation with the duration of coming down. In any case the distance is hardly possible to be more than 12 NM.
- The average time interval of loss of 1 km of altitude is shortest for dives and longest for spins, but in any case it seems hardly possible to be more than 14-16 seconds. It means that for AF447 flight, with cruise altitude of about 10700 meters, the duration of coming down was less than 3 minutes.
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I would trust much more the study done by French/Metron, etc in the wake AF447 since they looked at actual historical data. Also, not every upset is the same (even a definition what "upset' is can be far from razor sharp), there could be different degrees of upsets and this could impact how steep or shallow the descent is.
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The ATSB fact sheet along with some other recently discovered information has given me a clearer picture of the route taken by MH370 just after the turnaround.
The Thais' have said that they tracked (MH370) but that they didn't track it in Thai airspace, so in my earlier plots I had the flight skirting the Thai border; but when I tried to plot estimated groundspeed, the timing got a little tight. The plane would have had to maintain a cruse FL in order to have reached the vicinity of MEKAR at 18:22 UTC.
The ATSB plot shows the flight over Thai airspace, that more direct route west would fit other known facts better but is this a contradiction of the statement by the government of Thailand? Not at all, they did say that their track of the target was intermittent - so the ATSB plot is correct, they just didn't see the flight when it was over their territory.
The location of the Thai radar antenna that tracked MH370 is located at 6°50'38.02"N 100°25'11.64"E (you can see the antenna in Google Earth.) The slice of territory MH370 flew over in Thai airspace is blanketed by the high ground around Ban Panang Bo Ngo (a ridgeline at least 250 meters high at and near 6° 7'0.44"N 101°48'1.29"E.)
The person flying the plane knew about this "dead spot" in Thai radar coverage and crossed Thai airspace at much reduced altitude from cruise. This has been indicated in both early Malaysian radar reports as well as by the civilian sightings of the aircraft near Kota Bharu.
IMO this solidifies one part of a reconstructed flight path for MH370.
The Thais' have said that they tracked (MH370) but that they didn't track it in Thai airspace, so in my earlier plots I had the flight skirting the Thai border; but when I tried to plot estimated groundspeed, the timing got a little tight. The plane would have had to maintain a cruse FL in order to have reached the vicinity of MEKAR at 18:22 UTC.
The ATSB plot shows the flight over Thai airspace, that more direct route west would fit other known facts better but is this a contradiction of the statement by the government of Thailand? Not at all, they did say that their track of the target was intermittent - so the ATSB plot is correct, they just didn't see the flight when it was over their territory.
The location of the Thai radar antenna that tracked MH370 is located at 6°50'38.02"N 100°25'11.64"E (you can see the antenna in Google Earth.) The slice of territory MH370 flew over in Thai airspace is blanketed by the high ground around Ban Panang Bo Ngo (a ridgeline at least 250 meters high at and near 6° 7'0.44"N 101°48'1.29"E.)
The person flying the plane knew about this "dead spot" in Thai radar coverage and crossed Thai airspace at much reduced altitude from cruise. This has been indicated in both early Malaysian radar reports as well as by the civilian sightings of the aircraft near Kota Bharu.
IMO this solidifies one part of a reconstructed flight path for MH370.
Last edited by Propduffer; 26th May 2014 at 23:45. Reason: oldoberon spells better than me
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@Shadoko on 26th May 2014, 11:16
The satellite moved slightly over 1 degree in latitude over 6 hours, and far less in longitude.
Farthest North at the 19:41 ping (1.63 N), and then South to 0.58 N at the last ping.
The longitude change was around 0.06 deg over the same time span.
So as others, including you, have noted, not noticeable at the scale of the ATSB Fig. 4.
The satellite moved slightly over 1 degree in latitude over 6 hours, and far less in longitude.
Farthest North at the 19:41 ping (1.63 N), and then South to 0.58 N at the last ping.
The longitude change was around 0.06 deg over the same time span.
So as others, including you, have noted, not noticeable at the scale of the ATSB Fig. 4.
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RAW Inmarsat data to be released today.
Raw data tracking last moments of missing flight MH370 that was used to calculate search area to be released tomorrow | Mail Online
Raw data tracking last moments of missing flight MH370 that was used to calculate search area to be released tomorrow | Mail Online
Also having the relative speed to the satellite will help considerably.
Assumptions have to be made on TAS and cruise altitude and how they may change over time with fuel burn.
There are several scenarios, each of which may produce a different search area.
Likely the last several hours were on a constant course. Back driving the various scenarios to a turnpoint NW of Sumatra and LKP from primary may produce a number of solutions consistent with fuel, aircraft performance and Inmarsat data.
I am not in accord with the proposition that MH370 necessarily went into a steep descent after running out of fuel. It may just as well have proceeded on course while descending. The lack of debris is indicative of a ditching under control.
Assumptions have to be made on TAS and cruise altitude and how they may change over time with fuel burn.
There are several scenarios, each of which may produce a different search area.
Likely the last several hours were on a constant course. Back driving the various scenarios to a turnpoint NW of Sumatra and LKP from primary may produce a number of solutions consistent with fuel, aircraft performance and Inmarsat data.
I am not in accord with the proposition that MH370 necessarily went into a steep descent after running out of fuel. It may just as well have proceeded on course while descending. The lack of debris is indicative of a ditching under control.
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Satellite position / velocity data?
Also having the relative speed to the satellite will help considerably.
In general I accept the concern over crackpot theories, and also understand that Inmarsat has the right to protect its intellectual property, but the more eyeballs looking at the most data possible can only lead to either new interpretations or more confidence in the analysis already done -- either is desirable.
Edt: No satellite position or velocity information in the pdf from Malaysian DCA website. The information can be used to confirm the reasonableness of the analysis, but not confirm it as far as I can tell. It may end up that somebody is needed with knowledge of how "Inmarsat Classic Aero mobile terminals are designed to correct for aircraft Doppler effects on their transmit signals. The terminal type used on
MH370 assumes a stationary satellite at a fixed orbital position."
Last edited by JakartaDean; 27th May 2014 at 04:56. Reason: Have now read the data
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Pontius
The BFO analysis chart would indicate that the turn south probably happened within a few minutes of passing MEKAR.
The ATSB fact sheet mentions timing of last primary radar as 0222. The BFO chart indicates probable turn a few minutes before 0230.
On another issue: does anyone have any comments on the fact that Vietnamese military radar detected the turn back and advised Malaysia in real time? I am unsure from press releases "who" was officially advised. I am asking from the point of view of recent discussions over ATC protocol and whose job it was to attempt to find the missing aircraft. Were there grounds for the aircraft's possible movements to be placed back under either Subang's attention, or Malaysian military attention, in view of the above?
I find it somewhat curious that, whilst in other circumstances an unidentified aircraft on military radar might not attract much attention, in this case knowing that the aircraft had lost all communications, and that Vietnam advised of a turn back, no-one thought it worth connecting the dots.
The ATSB fact sheet mentions timing of last primary radar as 0222. The BFO chart indicates probable turn a few minutes before 0230.
On another issue: does anyone have any comments on the fact that Vietnamese military radar detected the turn back and advised Malaysia in real time? I am unsure from press releases "who" was officially advised. I am asking from the point of view of recent discussions over ATC protocol and whose job it was to attempt to find the missing aircraft. Were there grounds for the aircraft's possible movements to be placed back under either Subang's attention, or Malaysian military attention, in view of the above?
I find it somewhat curious that, whilst in other circumstances an unidentified aircraft on military radar might not attract much attention, in this case knowing that the aircraft had lost all communications, and that Vietnam advised of a turn back, no-one thought it worth connecting the dots.
Last edited by Blake777; 27th May 2014 at 05:04. Reason: Redundancy