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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 30th Apr 2014, 19:24
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Preliminary Report

According to the National News Agency of Malaysia (BERNAMA) the preliminary report is to be released tomorrow, which given the time difference could well be in just a few hours for anyone on GMT.
It has also been announced that the next phase will be conducted by contractors with a high degree of specialisation for deep sea search operations. Expected costs are said to be in the region of AUD60m. Added to the $44m to date the cost of search is by far the biggest in history.
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Old 30th Apr 2014, 20:31
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Talked to a former colleague from Malaysia who I regard as a consummate aviator. He mentioned something very peculiar...investigators are ignoring the report from a NRT bound pilot on MH088 and the initial reports of a distress message intercepted by a listening station at Rayong, to the detriment of the whole saga.

The MH 088 pilot had reported positive contact on 121.5MHz with MH370 pilots who came back with incoherent mumblings and static. The listening station at Rayong-VTBU revealed a distress message about " cabin collapse " with need for immediate landing.

He reckoned that this mysterious episode would eventually turned out to be a mind-blowing paradigm shifting occurrence which will be VERY CONFRONTING AND CHALLENGING. He personally knows the captain of MH370 and " knows " that what happened, is certainly beyond the comprehension of many just like the " adventures of Admiral Byrd ". Hope this survives the cull.
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Old 30th Apr 2014, 20:48
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"cabin disintegrating"

I've raised this once before.
Early on there was a report from a Chinese News Service that a US Naval Station at Utapao heard a distress call with the details you mentioned.
The person who posted it said it was being discussed on some military internet.
The story has not been followed up on, and at least one person suggested it was discounted because of the Chinese news service connection.
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Old 30th Apr 2014, 21:04
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Surely if the cabin had structurally collapsed, it would be unusual for the airframe to produce about another 5 hours of geographically separated 'pings'?
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Old 30th Apr 2014, 21:10
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@ gleneagles

Would you care to elaborate a bit on what you are implying with your final paragraph about minds being blown and paradigms being shifted? I'm not sure I quite caught what you were trying to convey there...But very interested, as I have had the thinking ever since this event began that crucial information was being withheld that would eventually become released one way or another.
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Old 30th Apr 2014, 21:30
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revealed a distress message about " cabin collapse " with need for immediate landing.
Pardon my scepticism, I give next to zero credence to this piece of news.
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Old 30th Apr 2014, 21:57
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I am well aware that the " cabin collapse " thingy cannot be reconciled with later reports of satellite pings. However the " cabin collapse " was only a perception...something very abnormal and odd happened as the erratic movements of MH370 both laterally and vertically indicated struggles and difficulties. I am pretty certain the pilots were completely befuddled at what had happened to their aircraft.

The satellite signatures certainly indicated that the aircraft survived the initial phenomenon and continued flight to some unknown location. The pilot's/pilots' reactions in the form of incoherent mumblings and " cabin disintegration " distress call suggest a stunned and uncoordinated response to whatever difficulties that plagued them...it didn't indicate they crashed or disintegrated.

We have all been thinking linearly. That former Malaysian colleague suggested against linear logical deduction the way the establishments are pursuing or want us to pursue. Be aware of the assets available in that region due to the Cobra Gold - Cope Tiger exercises. I believe that FIR prior to MH370's mysterious behavior is technically within WSJC jurisdiction but for practical reasons, aircrafts are handled between Lumpur and Ho Chi Minh.

The muddled misinformation or disinformation throughout are due to geo-political considerations amongst the participants of Cobra Gold - Cope Tiger. Kayej1188...I am afraid we need to leave it as it is. Going further will be venturing into the realm of the " woo woo " world as my Malaysian friend opined.

Last edited by gleneagles; 1st May 2014 at 00:12. Reason: Typo and added extension Cope Tiger to the Cobra Gold exercises
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Old 1st May 2014, 00:21
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I am sorry but you may not be thinking linearly, but you certainly are not logical. 121.5 is monitored by many many people, agencies and aircraft including the press who 0routinely listen to it,. Yet the claim is that only one aircraft heard the transmission despite MH 370 being at FL 350. That is patent nonsense.
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Old 1st May 2014, 01:44
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wouldn't that 121.5 call be on tape at rayong.
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Old 1st May 2014, 02:31
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"Cabin collapse"

Collapse might not necessarily mean a structural collapse. In several other languages it could also mean "reduction" or "decompression".
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Old 1st May 2014, 03:06
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Handshakes at 16:55 and 17:07 (Z) ??

If handshakes (other than 60 minute 'keep alive') are caused by course changes (beam reacquisition), why are there handshakes where there was no course change, and conversely, why would there be no handshakes between 17:21 and 18:25 where there were several major course changes??

see plot at :
http://tinypic.com/m/i6ax6u/4

Last edited by Datayq1; 1st May 2014 at 03:07. Reason: correct link
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Old 1st May 2014, 03:16
  #10332 (permalink)  
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Oldoberon,

wouldn't that 121.5 call be on tape at rayong.

Generally all ATC audio and Radar tapes are held for 30 days. Unless there is a specific request to hold them they are taped over and used again.
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Old 1st May 2014, 03:32
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@Datayq1
I've never seen it unequivocally stated that handshakes were caused by course changes. That still seems to be based on an assumption.
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Old 1st May 2014, 03:57
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I was also flying in the area at the time of the disappearance, I heard the SGN controllers and the MH088 trying to contact MH370 on 121.5 and I certainly didn't hear anything that resembled a coherent reply.

There's something in the SGN area which periodically causes 5-10 seconds bursts of buzzing static on all VHF frequencies. It's well known to all of us based out here, I'm pretty familiar with what it sounds like, and that's all I heard that night. Wish I had something more dramatic to report but I personally don't believe any transmissions were made on 121.5 from MH370 at that time.
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Old 1st May 2014, 05:36
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and neither of these people would have reason to make up stories.
People do make up stories all the time so there is nothing unusual about it. It is enough to recall numerous "UFO reporting", TWA800 accident, etc. etc, this includes airline pilots as "witnesses". Specially when you can claim a "privileged" position and know something that nobody else does - it has always been a big magnet to exaggerate your stories.
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Old 1st May 2014, 05:39
  #10336 (permalink)  
 
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I guess it's not real as a distress message on 121.5 would be investigated and recorded as evidence, you would hope.
I really find it difficult to accept that nobody on this planet knows or saw anything.
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Old 1st May 2014, 05:46
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I really find it difficult to accept that nobody on this planet knows or saw anything.
Actually Inmarsat satellites "saw" much more that one could have ever dreamt of. I am amazed we know as much as we do, if it was a general aviation long range aircraft - there could have been practically next to nothing to latch onto.
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Old 1st May 2014, 07:22
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Let's face it, no one has the faintest idea were MH370 is. The present favorite hunch is based on a tolerably credible location based on the mathematical interpretation of a few isolated data points that even a political pollster would find inadequate. Come on Guys, show me a seat cushion, not a dozen reasons why you can't find one, you have been looking long enough to find something even though the search area is large.

As soon as you step back from the bustle and the numbers and ask the logical question "Why?", nothing about a Southern route makes sense in this situation. Why would anyone fly an aircraft towards the Antarctic? Does disappearing quietly make a statement? If you intend to crash an aircraft why wait 7 hours to do it? Why fly out of radar range heading Northwesterly then apparently turn Southerly if you intend to crash? Why would you head South when you could have achieved the same end by heading West or Southwest? How do you explain the actions of the flight crew, was one incapacitated, both incapacitated, hijacked?

Here is a simple question. If I intended to crash an aircraft in deep water why would I turn Westerly when I could turn Easterly and fly to the deepest water on the Earth in about the same flight time?

When I reach this illogical position in my own affairs I throw all of the paperwork in the garbage can and start afresh.
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Old 1st May 2014, 08:08
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Datayq1,

Course corrections between 17:21 and 18:25 are toward the relative position of the satellite therefore there is no beam disconnect.


Something has to break the beam (the wing or crown of the aircraft, geographic features or another aircraft) for a reacquire to occur. A SATCOM communication from the aircraft will also cause a reacquire.

Last edited by MrPeabody; 1st May 2014 at 08:16. Reason: Added last sentence.
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Old 1st May 2014, 08:27
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Originally Posted by BOING
Come on Guys, show me a seat cushion, not a dozen reasons why you can't find one, you have been looking long enough to find something even though the search area is large.
...
As soon as you step back from the bustle and the numbers and ask the logical question "Why?", nothing about a Southern route makes sense in this situation.
These two issues indeed also still give me some doubts if the plane is really where it is assumed to be at the moment.
On the other hand the INMARSAT data and the apparent pings received do strongly indicate it is.
But I agree in so far that it is strange really nothing of a 250t airliner has been found in almost two months. Not a single small piece.
Also the second issue has something to it: If you really, really wanted to disappear, why flying back so 'close' to the Australian shore, taking the risk of being seen by JORN. Why not flying South West, where you would be out of reach for any land based Radar and Patrol aircraft? Or immediately flying South East iso first flying over potentially Radar/Electronic Intelligence covered Terrain. It makes no sense at all if you wanted to disappear. There would have been even better Options.

However, If the plane is roughly in the area where they are searching (IMHO still very likely), they will find it and chances are, we will get an idea of what really happened. So let's simply wait and hope for the second Phase of the underwater search.
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