Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[onetrack]

@tdracer -

1) A few days, if more signals are detected.
2) SSS is already there, on a number of craft.
3) See 1).
4) Submersibles are already on the SAR craft in the search zone. Interestingly, the Chinese have the worlds deepest-capacity submersible (7000M).
5) A few days to "go take a look". If confirmed, recovery could take several weeks to several months.
The major advantage of the search zone is the region is favoured with regular fine weather.

China's deep-sea exploration abilities - http://www.maritimeindia.org/china%E...-building.html

[nigf]

Defence minister on now, nothing, zilch to add, just getting the mug on TV seems to be the reason for this 'press conference'.
Angus Houston is being asked all questions which is a continuation of yesterday's Q&A after the press conference.

[onetrack]

Both Angus Houston and Defence Minister David Johnston in the live conference at Pearce airbase.

ABC News 24 - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Nothing of real importance being reported. Emphasis on further confirmatory pings being found before any submersible is launched.
Emphasis also being placed on finding some floating wreckage, as 24 sonar buoys have been released, and location information from floating wreckage found will assist greatly in calculating aircraft entry point, by utilising the sonar buoy drift information.

[Shadoko]

Arc #7 published?

From the 04/07 conference transcript ( Transcript of Press Conference, 7 April 2014 , bold from me):

Now, you might all recall the analysis by the expert team that I referred to, I think, three days ago—three or four days ago. This was the analysis of the satellite signals and the aircraft simulation work, and what that revealed was there were a series of arcs which signified where each exchange or handshake occurred between the satellite and the aircraft. The sixth exchange is represented by this line here. A short time after the sixth exchange, there was another exchange with a slightly different signal. This was a matter of, I think, about eight minutes after the sixth ping, and the expert team consider this as very significant. They think something happened at that stage, and we assess that that's about where the aircraft would have run out of fuel.
.../...
And what's the difference between this end of the box and that end of the box? It's the assumptions that relate to the aircraft speed. If the aircraft was travelling slower than normal, it would be this area up here where the aircraft might have ended up. If the aircraft was travelling faster than perhaps normal—a bit faster than here—it would end up in this area here. So that is why we are searching in this area here, and the most promising lead at this stage is the event I described first up, with Ocean Shield in this location here. This graphic will be up on the net after this press conference.

And the graphic:

As said by Houston, the 00:11 ping (known, IMHO, as the 6th) is a line (not an interval). It could be only what is captioned 'Satellite Handshake Calculation #6'. So, has the 'Satellite Handshake Calculation #7' to be tied to the 00:19 'partial ping'?
From the map, the 'Designated Subsea Search Area' look like 80km width (~600/7.5). Is there any clue in the published data that the 00:19 'partial ping" was a flameout from fuel exhaustion or from ditching? Or from another event?

[MG23]

Originally Posted by Shadoko

Is there any clue in the published data that the 00:19 'partial ping" was a flameout from fuel exhaustion or from ditching? Or from another event?

Something caused the SATCOM terminal to send a message to the satellite at that point, and it would certainly have been close to the limits of the available fuel. There have been a number of comments here about how fuel running out could cause it to lose power temporarily and reboot, so it seems one likely explanation for the anomalous behaviour.

If that was the case, I'd be surprised that the aircraft would be found within a few km of that point, since it should still glide some distance afterwards. However, I believe the comment some time back about testing fuel exhaustion in a simulator said the 777 banked as it dove to gain velocity, so perhaps it spiralled in.

Edit: I guess another possibility is that there was enough fuel remaining somewhere in the system to run the APU briefly during the descent, so, by the time the terminal finished booting, the aircraft was about to hit the sea.

[Two to Tango]

How about the Deepsea Challenger adding benefit? Ready with lights, camera and ability to collect items.

[hamster3null]

Originally Posted by Shadoko

As said by Houston, the 00:11 ping (known, IMHO, as the 6th) is a line (not an interval). It could be only what is captioned 'Satellite Handshake Calculation #6'. So, has the 'Satellite Handshake Calculation #7' to be tied to the 00:19 'partial ping'?
From the map, the 'Designated Subsea Search Area' look like 80km width (~600/7.5). Is there any clue in the published data that the 00:19 'partial ping" was a flameout from fuel exhaustion or from ditching? Or from another event?

There seems to be a problem here. Australian call it flameout from fuel exhaustion. But, after flameout at cruise altitude, the aircraft would continue to glide for some time and would go down at least 50 km away. If Ocean Shield's detected sounds are really ULBs, their location directly underneath arc #7 (which seems to correspond to lowest possible speed after leaving arc #6) would point towards controlled ditching instead.

Also, this location is much closer to Malaysia and Indonesia than anything that's been considered so far. Ocean Shield is currently at 20.8S 104.1E. Looks like supposed signals were in the same neighborhood. That's 1700 NM from last reported contact with Malaysian radar, or 280 knots for 6 hours. Even with a detour around Sumatra it still only works out to not much more than 330 knots.

In this picture, arc #6 is ~2600 NM from satellite footprint, arc #7 is 2650 NM from satellite footprint. Narrowness of arc #6 and of the search box seem to indicate that Inmarsat's experts are very confident in the distance to arc #6.

[alph2z]

OCEAN SHIELD current position. I'm surprised it took this long to do a 180 degree turn since the australian news of the 1st ping reception is over 24 hrs old.

EDIT added: Looks like they're doing 39 km lines before doing 180's.

Timestamp (UTC) Speed (kts) Longitude Latitude Course Show on Map

08-04-2014 04:20 2.0 103.9892 -21.06658 205 Show on Map
07-04-2014 23:26 2.1 104.0516 -20.93515 203 Show on Map
07-04-2014 21:38 2.1 104.0793 -20.87693 203 Show on Map
07-04-2014 20:42 2.4 104.1105 -20.8297 275 Show on Map
07-04-2014 18:00 2.0 104.1175 -20.88497 24 Show on Map
07-04-2014 17:24 2.0 104.1067 -20.90773 23 Show on Map
07-04-2014 01:18 2.0 103.9866 -21.13884 204 Show on Map
06-04-2014 23:34 2.1 104.0116 -21.08618 203 Show on Map

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/...4:20:00/zoom:9
.

[slats11]

Ok looks approx 80 km apart if crossing perpendicular to arcs. But at heading of perhaps 160. So distance is then in the vicinity of 120 km. In 8 minutes. This final phase seems a bit fast given current estimates of speed after turned south.

Maybe we are reading too much into this picture. Have we been given the angle to satellite for this 7th ping? If not, perhaps it should be thought of as an illustration for media rather than scaled drawing.

Regarding lower speed, maybe flew lower level to avoid contrails. Not unreasonable if you accept earlier flight path was chosen to avoid detection. Lower speed and higher fuel burn.

Pingers on final arc? Was final arc perhaps the ditching? Or else turn back west into wind.

What do people think about not capturing pingers today? We have been advised of gradual reduction in output towards end if battery life. This is not consistent with a 2 hour signal one day and none the next.

[Propduffer]

Originally Posted by hamster3null

Ocean Shield is currently at 20.8S 104.1E. Looks like supposed signals were in the same neighborhood. That's 1700 NM from last reported contact with Malaysian radar, or 280 knots for 6 hours. Even with a detour around Sumatra it still only works out to not much more than 330 knots.

I plotted a hypothetical path from VAMPI to Ocean Shield's location (20.8S 104.1E) under the assumption that the plane was flown about 200 mi north of Banda Aceh in order to avoid Indonesian radar. At this segment of the hypothetical flight the plane might also have been at a somewhat lower altitude in order to stay below the Indonesian radar horizon.

I come up with almost 2300 NM for that flight path (I don't know where you placed last radar contact with Malaysian radar); how does this fit in with your estimate?

[India Four Two]

I was looking at the map of the undersea search area posted by Shadoko and then looked up the AIS information for the current position of Ocean Shield, which is approximately 21 S, 104 E. That longitude looked very familiar.

If you go north along the meridian to about 7 N, you end up within 25 nm of the IGARI waypoint (6.9367 N, 103.5850 E)

Just coincidence? If they do recover the FDR, the actual track is going to be very interesting.

[selfin]

Originally Posted by Propduffer

...under the assumption that the plane was flown about 200 mi north of Banda Aceh in order to avoid Indonesian radar.

Nowhere near 200 miles north of Aceh. It was tracked out to about 10 NM beyond MEKAR on a bearing of about 285T from Butterworth AFB. MEKAR is 87 NM line of sight from Banda Aceh ARP. By NILAM it's 81.1 NM LOS. Intersection VAMPI is about 65 NM to Lhokseumawe. ICAO's FASID CNS/4A states both Banda Aceh and Lhokseumawe/Malikussaleh's PSR ranges are 90 NM. Apparently 60 NM might be closer to the truth.

"Had the plane entered Indonesian territory, the two radars must have detected it," First Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto of the Indonesian air force told the WSJ. (source)

MH370 was below Butterworth's RADAR horizon for a significant period enroute VAMPI. You can see that here:



From photo.china.com.cn

[hamster3null]

Originally Posted by Propduffer

I plotted a hypothetical path from VAMPI to Ocean Shield's location (20.8S 104.1E) under the assumption that the plane was flown about 200 mi north of Banda Aceh in order to avoid Indonesian radar. At this segment of the hypothetical flight the plane might also have been at a somewhat lower altitude in order to stay below the Indonesian radar horizon.

I come up with almost 2300 NM for that flight path (I don't know where you placed last radar contact with Malaysian radar); how does this fit in with your estimate?

As commented above, if last known radar contact is near NILAM and MH370 wasn't visible to Indonesian radars at that point, it's pretty straightforward to get from NILAM to 20.8S 104.1E in less than 2000 NM without getting any closer.

If radar slide is false though, MAPSO-IGREX-TOPIN-IKASA-Ocean Shield is 2213 NM (370 kts) while giving a wide berth to Indonesian airspace.

Incidentally, Ocean Shield spent the last day within 20 NM of a major waypoint corridor from India to west Australia. Interesting coincidence. Remember how roaring 40's were a big problem because no corridors went there? This area is not.

[Mahatma Kote]

Ocean swells in the Indian ocean well off the WA coast are usually long period, tending towards 30 second peak-peak - perhaps 25 second typical.

They are usually generated by deep polar lows and have travelled thousands of kilometres from near Antarctica. Alternatively cyclones in the North-West can generate them.

Wave amplitude in deep water is not particularly large for this type of swell. Breaking waves would be extremely unusual.

A landing parallel to the swell is quite feasible and there will be little or no effect from the swell during the expected very short landing period. This applies to the original search area SW of Perth and now to the search area NW of Perth.

[OleOle]

The telegraph has some more information on what caused the last partial ping:

Likening the sequence to a car spluttering as it runs out of fuel, Mr McLaughlin told The Telegraph: "The partial handshake would be the plane running out of fuel and faltering for a moment, so the system went off network and then briefly powered up and had communication with the network. The plane looked for a final communication before it went off – and that was it."

MH370 missing plane: 'black box pings' tracked to same point as final 'half-handshake' - Telegraph

[slats11]

If final ping represented fuel exhaustion in the cruise, we need to explain why the plane apparently ditched on the same arc as fuel exhaustion. This also requires plane to cover perhaps 120km in last 8 minutes of powered flight (= 900kmh or approx 480 knots). Even if plane was flying perpendicular to arcs, speed would still have been 380 knots (50NM in 8 minutes).

However if ditching would you really wait until fuel exhausted? Surely you would prefer to have a bit of control over the last few seconds of flight.

If had power at time of ditching and the final ping represented the ditching itself, what could account for final partial ping? Possibly loss of antenna. This scenario requires plane to cover same distance as above, as well as losing altitude and slowing down for ditching in 8 minutes.

On balance, this suggests ditched after fuel exhausted. So perhaps it flew along the arc when ditching. Or perhaps was already very low altitude in order to assess sea conditions when fuel exhausted, and ditching only a few km further on.

[OPENDOOR]

LCH77;

In a video of the Haixun 01 on CNN, it appears the Chinese had a spare pinger in the RIB.

Please tell me this isn't true. The nightmare scenario of some misguided or malicious person dropping a pinger overboard in the search area doesn't bear thinking about.

[RTD1]

Is there any actual evidence suggesting MH370 went North, West, and then South to avoid flying over Indonesia or is it based solely on the Indonesians saying they never picked the plane up on radar so it couldn't have flown over their airspace?

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Near as I can tell, the only actual radar evidence comes from the Malaysian military tracking the flight and showing that it made a westward turn near IGARI, headed back across Malaysia and into the Malacca Straight before disappearing again near Pulau Perak. Everything the media is reporting about the path it took after that is just speculation based on what other countries say they did NOT see that night.

[500N]

anyone have a link to the cnn video.

this video show the rib

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/08/wo...html?hpt=hp_c1

[Wader2]

Originally Posted by slats11

Or perhaps was already very low altitude in order to assess sea conditions when fuel exhausted, and ditching only a few km further on.

The whole thing is apparently irrational and an assumption of fuel exhaustion is just that, an assumption.

The same effect would be achieved by manoeuvring for ditching while still retaining power for ditching. That alone would account for not travelling as far south.

Professor Mishar Dohler* opined right at the outset that the final ping could have been as the aircraft sank.

*King's College London - Professor Mischa Dohler