Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[threemiles]

from 47 CFR 87.145
(d) Aircraft earth stations must correct their transmit frequencies for Doppler effect relative to the satellite. The transmitted signal may not deviate more than 335 Hz from the desired transmit frequency. (This is a root sum square error which assumes zero error for the received ground earth station signal and includes the AES transmit/receive frequency reference error and the AES automatic frequency control residual errors.) The applicant must attest that the equipment provides adequate Doppler effect compensation and where applicable, that measurements have been made that demonstrate compliance. Submission of data demonstrating compliance is not required unless requested by the Commission.

It seems this requirement was not fulfilled by the airplane's equipment. Tests with other MAS 777 airplanes during the first two werks seem to have shown evidence that all those airplanes had the same behaviour.

My assumption is that a satellite is just a very wideband transponder and plays no active role in analysing. I am surprised that raw data are recorded in the ground station that allow a retrospective doppler analysis to this degree. I would have expected that only data packets would be stored, albeit with a timestamp, channel information, maybe beam antenna employed. But retrieving such small amounts of frequency deviation as 100 Hz from 1600 MHz requires raw data be stored.

Assuming the Doppler effect can be modified by a person on board is pure bs, though.

[ferry pilot]

The pilot has an excellent personal and professional reputation, but was involved in politics that may have placed him in conflict with his employer.

[clayne]

Originally Posted by ferry pilot

The pilot has an excellent personal and professional reputation, but was involved in politics that may have placed him in conflict with his employer.

For as many problems as Malaysia has at the government level it is not a totalitarian or fascist state. It is extremely unlikely the captain is the only pilot on the MH roster who supports the "opposition." I'd also imagine there's plenty of time flying long haul for politics as a subject to be discussed and for that I'd speculate it's quite unlikely other pilots didn't know his leanings (just as he may have known theirs).

These discussions of who he supported, politically, need to stop. They show a real ignorance of politics in Malaysia and unnecessarily disparage a most likely dead pilot who's life was invested in flying airplanes.

[Passagiata]

Clayne:

These discussions of who he supported, politically, need to stop. They show a real ignorance of politics in Malaysia and unnecessarily disparage a most likely dead pilot who's life was invested in flying airplanes.

Hear hear. Moderate them out. Who knows what egregious quarter that sort of speculation is coming from, but it does everyday, politically engaged Malaysians (of whom I know a handful well, and have had collegiate conversations with dozens more) a great disservice.

[jugofpropwash]

These discussions of who he supported, politically, need to stop. They show a real ignorance of politics in Malaysia and unnecessarily disparage a most likely dead pilot who's life was invested in flying airplanes.

I think the pilot's politics are germane. Yes, he could have been making some sort of statement - but on the other hand, it's been widely reported that the opposition leader was found guilty on trumped up charges. If true, then the government might be more than willing to pin the disappearance of a plane on one of his supporters, even if the pilot is totally innocent. The political angle works both ways, but I do think it's something that needs to be taken under consideration.

[ferry pilot]

There seems to be little support for a pilot directed disappearance of this airplane and perhaps that is not surprising. A crime, unlike an accident, is
not open to public speculation and conjecture, litigation being a serious and effective deterrent. That fact may however, discourage the open discussion by those best qualified to determine the cause of this most perplexing of aviation disasters. There is a reason this happened, and people who know what that reason is. They are pilots, aviation professionals, and investigators
who follow this forum, and should by now have been heard from.

[Green Guard]

BBG

The reason one switches to standby before changing the code

if you read rules and regs ...no transponder should ever be switched to standby in flight UNLESS you are asked so by ATC

[JoeBloggs2]

It has been discussed in round about terms since very early in the thread. I suspect many people have reached similar points of view but you need to focus on the specifics without going into the geopolitical aspects or you get moderated tout suite.

The main objection I have is incapacitating the passengers to a point where no attempt is made over the next 6 hours to regain control. Which logically should have resulted in either a crash well before 08:11 or a diversion towards the West Australian coastline...

People have suggested hypoxia/ hypothermia but having just reread the Helios crash report where the FA with the CPL was seen entering the cockpit 1 ~ 2 hours after the loss of communications, I am still not 100% sold

[mseyfang]

The pilot has an excellent personal and professional reputation, but was involved in politics that may have placed him in conflict with his employer.

And there are pilots are in direct conflict with their employers through involvement in their unions, which can at times be quite acrimonious. I've never heard of a case where those conflicts have led to a deliberate accident. So your point is?

Absent evidence to the contrary, this kind of implicit allegation is close to libel.

There are plenty of pilots with passionate political views. I have yet to learn of an accident deliberately caused to make a political point. If this one is the exception, I'm open to that possibility provided that there is actual evidence to back it up. The US FBI has analyzed Captain Zaharie's computers and has not found anything suspicious. Time to stop beating this dead horse unless something incriminating turns up, particularly in view of the fact that the man is not around to defend himself.

[ekw]

Absent evidence to the contrary, this kind of implicit allegation is close to libel

There is no liability for defamation of the deceased. At least not in English Common Law. Whether comments are in good taste is another matter. But the constant refrain from some pilots to stop speculation on this line of enquiry is just silly. You cannot ignore that which is staring you in the face. I will not repeat the arguments which have been made hundreds of times on this forum, but if this was a deliberate act, whoever did it went out of their way to make it very difficult ever to be found. Without that unexpected 'ping' we would still be looking in the South China Sea, and the sleepy heads in the RMAF may never have been caught napping. Incidentally, some have assumed that the RMAF Air Defence Radar is antiquated. That is not true. The Kuantan and Butterworth stations were upgraded in 2005 at a cost of RM$43 million. Since the same contractor provides SSR for ATC I would be surprised if they did not have he ability to track civil aircraft on transponders or notice when one went covert. Their buzzers must have been turned down too.

[buttmonkey1]

What is the Malaysian navy / air force contributing to the search,
they seem have a range of vessels including hydrographic, mine sweepers and submarines that could be out looking.
I don't see one Malaysian asset actively involved on the list.

[ampclamp]

Buttmonkey, 2 Herc's from the RMAF have arrived in WA. Tardy yes, but at least contributing.

[UnreliableSource]

Buttmonkey, 2 Herc's from the RMAF have arrived in WA. Tardy yes, but at least contributing.

Not tardy at all.

Look, the overall search has different areas of possibility. The possibility of a crash closer to Malaysia has been declining, but was not zero.

Malaysian assets have been used closer to Malaysia.

[InfrequentFlier511]

It would be ironic if, as a protest against a government's alleged assault on democracy, an individual were to deprive a couple of hundred others of their democratic right to self-determination. It would be an empty gesture too, unless a statement was made to explain the reason for the person's actions. It seems there was no such statement made, publicly or privately. No doubt, if there *had* been such a statement, the government would not be reticent about revealing its existence, if not its content.


If we are to continue to explore the possibility of pilot suicide, it should be considered that Islam (I think Capt Zaharie is Muslim, we have already heard from the Imam at FO Fariq's mosque) takes the same dim view of suicide as does Christianity. A devout Muslim would consider it a crime against Allah, just as a devout Christian would consider it a crime against God. Of course both religions also take a pretty dim view of the slaughter of innocents. This both makes pilot suicide seem less likely, and perhaps explains why a suicidal pilot might choose to engineer an unexplained disappearance over a straightforward plunge into the South China Sea. Of course a suicidal B777 pilot could probably have borrowed or hired a light aircraft and done the deed with far less questions and without the loss of his passengers, colleagues and friends - assuming it was premeditated.

[JamesGV]

Pontius

I think that "everything" is on the list of probable cause at the moment, however abhorrent some of them may be.

The Malaysian authorities have used the term "manual intervention" in respect to the deactivation of the transponder. That is what they have stated.

If they are correct (and "we" do not know), the reason for that alleged "intervention" is unknown. As is the person or persons responsible, their technical knowledge and background(s) or their motivation.

[highcirrus]

InfrequentFlier511

Are/were not the legions of islamist suicide bombers which now plague the world also devout muslims and do/did they consider their plans/actions as crimes against Allah? Perhaps they consider/have been told that they have dispensation?

[Flightmech]

FedEx 705? That was a mix of employee conflict and personal issues. No fatalities but easily could have ended up that way.

[Airbubba]

If we are to continue to explore the possibility of pilot suicide, it should be considered that Islam (I think Capt Zaharie is Muslim, we have already heard from the Imam at FO Fariq's mosque) takes the same dim view of suicide as does Christianity. A devout Muslim would consider it a crime against Allah, just as a devout Christian would consider it a crime against God. Of course both religions also take a pretty dim view of the slaughter of innocents.

And earlier posts here suggested that MH 370 couldn't be a hijacking since Malaysia is a Muslim country. Many airlines in Muslim countries have been hijacked in years past, just ask some of the Ozmates who have worked overseas.

I believe Egyptair 990 and the 9-11 attacks kinda blew away the theory that Muslims wouldn't commit suicide and take others, thousands in the 9-11 attacks, with them. Somehow the 'slaughter of innocents' clause didn't seem to apply in 1999 and 2001.

I can see your point though that the dim societal view of suicide might be an incentive to engineer a mysterious disappearance.

[multycpl]

Has the climb to 45'000 now been discounted ????

[BWV 988]

We're looking at residuals of a process performed by an unknown device with the intention of bringing these residuals to zero. It's pure luck that we didn't get random noise!

Inmarsat has deduced a trend which is supposedly significant enough to distinguish between north and south. Speed/course determination would appear more uncertain now, especially if data logging isn't lossless. Relative changes, however, might still hold some information.