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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 28th Mar 2014, 03:07
  #8441 (permalink)  
 
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1100 km is an hours flying time or more

We have a reasonable indication when the plane ran out of fuel from the satellite pings. Now the belief is that the plane had less endurance than initially expected because its early diversions consumed more fuel than thought. At any possible cruise speed, the 1100 km shift represents more than an hours lower flight time. How does that square with the satellite data?
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 03:08
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Anyone else struck by how slowly information is being incorporated into the official search. 2 weeks in and they now have new speed information!

It is almost as if unofficial sources are reluctantly drip feeding information.

I am also thinking about how far the Aust PM went out into a limb announcing the first images of debris. This announcement was based on relatively early images of debris that now seem to be a long way from the now estimated crash point. Based on estimated position now, I can't see how these images could have represented debris.

This latest twist has me even more certain there is a great deal of information not in the public domain. I hope so anyway.

Last edited by slats11; 28th Mar 2014 at 03:38.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 03:12
  #8443 (permalink)  
 
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Next AMSA press conference on ABC TV at 0330z today.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 03:15
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One major advantage with the revised search zone position is it means reduced transit time to the zone, and more search time available for each aircraft.

The ADV Ocean Shield (which is tasked to tow the U.S. Navy pinger locator) is expected in Albany, W.A. (not Fremantle, as previously advised by the media), at an ETA of 1300UTZ (2100HRS WST) tonight.

I'm guessing it will take a day or two to set up the pinger locator on the Ocean Shield and then another couple of days to travel to the search zone - so they won't be starting to look for the FDR pings until around Monday 31st, I'd say.

That's only a week approximately before the FDR battery runs out. That's not much time, when they only have a rough idea of where the aircraft might have splashed down.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 03:17
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Would not the ground speed have been apparent on the ping/time/arc formula used already?

Looks like there are plenty more twists and turns left in this yet.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 03:39
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Would not the ground speed have been apparent on the ping/time/arc formula used already?
Only a minimum speed set by the distance between the ping arcs, and a maximum set by the aircraft performance so it can reach the final arc before it runs out of fuel.

If less fuel was available, the crash point will have to move further North around the arc to reduce the distance the aircraft travelled.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 04:15
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O ye of little faith...

It wouldn't surprise me if they are finally incorporating classified US satellite data to refine the Inmarsat estimates.

They'll eventually find it--the Chinese are highly motivated and have very deep pockets.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 04:17
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the Chinese are highly motivated and have very deep pockets.
They are neither motivated nor they have deep pockets (for this task). But they are enough motivated to score some political points.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 04:20
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They score the points just by being here with two aircraft and 5 ships
and Malaysia isn't.

They are motivated and do have deep pockets and they will find it.

They are playing to the National political game as well as the international
but the National would be a higher priority.

Do a google search and pick the Chinese media results, photos,
they are making a big thing out of it in the Chinese National media.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 04:22
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Smoke and mirrors.
Something is definitely off here, and I wonder if the Malaysians are more than a little paranoid re the unsolved hijacking and crash of the Malaysian Air flight in 1977 . Both pilots shot, all px lost but no reason or claim from any group ever made.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 04:40
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Boeing want it found. Boeing is pretty important to US military and also export earnings. And therefore USA most likely want it found.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 04:44
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Why did the change of direction of MH370 not trigger fighters scramble ?

Hi,
To come back to the very origin of the disappearance of MH370, I saw no real discussion as to why the change of direction, noticed by the military radar, did not trigger fighters scramble. Eventually, MH370 flew for at least 1 h westward, which was totally against its flight plan. Fighters could have helped identifying what was the problem (like they did in the Helios incident).
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 04:47
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as to why the change of direction, noticed by the military radar, did not trigger fighters scramble
Simple. Not everyone is so preoccupied with the post 9/11 hysteria that sees fit to send fighters after a wayward aircraft (Frankly I don't think they even tracked it in real time). Only later when reviewing tapes they probably spotted it.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 04:49
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Boeing want it found. Boeing is pretty important to US military and also export earnings. And therefore USA most likely want it found.
As do Malaysian Airlines and their insurers.

Each of these two parties want the answer for opposite reasons, they want any potential future lawsuits directed at the other party.

Boeing also just plain wants to know if there is a failure mode in the 777 and by inference other models they don't know about.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 05:02
  #8455 (permalink)  
 
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If the new search area is correct, we are about 10-14 days from debris washing up on the WA coast.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 05:04
  #8456 (permalink)  
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I assume the new search area is still outside the southern boundary of JORN radar 2... and that it might struggle to see anything with a low profile floating on the surface anyway.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 05:54
  #8457 (permalink)  
 
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Drift Patterns in the Southern IO

CSIRO* ‏@CSIROnews 16m
Watch: An animation demonstrating how marine debris can move, and be tracked, in the ocean http://ow.ly/v6jiO #MH370 ^CS


*Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia)

What?s our role in the search for missing flight MH370? | News @ CSIRO
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 06:06
  #8458 (permalink)  
 
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Just saw the P-8 go overhead on its way out to the revised search area - visibly different track to previous days....
Good luck lads... Let's hope it pays dividends.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 06:17
  #8459 (permalink)  
 
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Question

The new information says that the missing plane flew at a faster speed, thus using more fuel and had shorter max range. Higher speed requires more fuel per unit of time, but also produces further travel per unit of time. Don't the two pretty much offset each other?
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 06:20
  #8460 (permalink)  
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Drive faster in your car and find out!
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