Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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@ ReadMyACARS / Map of Data
Great map. Just had one query. Bearing in mind the Indonesian denial that MH370 crossed their airspace:
MH370 not detected by Indonesian military radar: Defense minister | The Jakarta Post
Does that infer that more turns were made before hitting 'open water'? Or do you think that the current path is far enough away from Indonesian primary radar capabilities (whatever they are)?
But according to the Wall Street Journal yesterday, Indonesia said its two radar stations in the Aceh province, nearest to where Malaysia lost sight of the Boeing 777-200ER carrying 239 people in the Straits of Malacca, found no indication of the aircraft.
“Malaysia said their radar detected [an object] near Pulau Perak, and then it disappeared.
“Had the plane entered Indonesian territory, the two radars must have detected it,” First Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto of the Indonesian air force told the WSJ.
“Malaysia said their radar detected [an object] near Pulau Perak, and then it disappeared.
“Had the plane entered Indonesian territory, the two radars must have detected it,” First Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto of the Indonesian air force told the WSJ.
Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro has asserted that the military radar placed in Sabang, Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam -- Indonesia's westernmost point -- did not detect missing flight MH370 or any other foreign aircraft crossing Indonesian airspace.“I have received a report about it. The air defense radar system in Sabang is very sophisticated and it did not detect any aircraft,” he said in Jakarta on Wednesday, as quoted by Antara news agency.
The minister said the military radar owned by the Defense Ministry was more sensitive than civilian radars so that there was no reason to doubt its accuracy.
The minister said the military radar owned by the Defense Ministry was more sensitive than civilian radars so that there was no reason to doubt its accuracy.
Does that infer that more turns were made before hitting 'open water'? Or do you think that the current path is far enough away from Indonesian primary radar capabilities (whatever they are)?
Heli, the 'mirror image' is only a result of the arc(s) being drawn about the equator. The arcs are actually part of a Position Circle with one segment already eliminated by non reception by the adjoining satellite, and actually a second one (through Africa) outside the max range of a great circle track from the last radar fix, also eliminated.
The 'dots' would be the running fix on each later segment or arc, out from the centre, but note there would be two on any hourly range circle centered around each prior fix, being the circle intersect points along the next arc. Note that later arcs can be inside earlier arcs if the thing had done 180's. The area would actually grow in tree branch fashion.
The test of validity would be a feasible set of points along the final arc. Its a DR nav solution.
lakedude; look up 'running fix', with a radar fix near an early ping as a strart point.
The 'dots' would be the running fix on each later segment or arc, out from the centre, but note there would be two on any hourly range circle centered around each prior fix, being the circle intersect points along the next arc. Note that later arcs can be inside earlier arcs if the thing had done 180's. The area would actually grow in tree branch fashion.
The test of validity would be a feasible set of points along the final arc. Its a DR nav solution.
lakedude; look up 'running fix', with a radar fix near an early ping as a strart point.
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Jindalee OTHR
Jindalee is an OTHR using High Frequency transmissions determined by an FMS A frequency management system.
It has three main lobes.
But only one transmitter with a steerable beam at a secret location.
The time of the alleged transition of the Malaysian flight, it has been suggested occurred off the beam when the radar beam was looking North.
Debate will occur as to if any HF OTHR operating in the 17-24 MHZ band would have propagation at that time of day/night.
And why ask Jindalee why not ask the Russians and the UK one on Cyprus and all the other OTHRs operating at the time,
To find out if you had HF prop between central Australia and Malaysia...
You would need the sounder data from Xmas island, but it would be easy using IPS charts on the day to see the MUF on the NW path to see if the OTHR would have produced a paint, which would be just a dot and have to be correlated with other radar data from Malaysia to join the dots.
I think if the RAAF have data they have given it to their Orion pilots and it maybe the reason why the search area has been narrowed slightly.
I still ask the question (please don't shoot the messenger) if the aircraft was under pilot/hijacker control, how did the people involved control 200 passengers for 7 hours going into daylight over vast expanses of ocean.
When it would become obvious that they weren't going to China?
As in Boston a few passengers could easily overcome the person guarding them and the longer the standoff went on the more determined the people would become to find out what was going on and try something.
And so far no one on board appears to be a radical...bent of self destruction 3000km out in a remote ocean. what would be the point?
It has three main lobes.
But only one transmitter with a steerable beam at a secret location.
The time of the alleged transition of the Malaysian flight, it has been suggested occurred off the beam when the radar beam was looking North.
Debate will occur as to if any HF OTHR operating in the 17-24 MHZ band would have propagation at that time of day/night.
And why ask Jindalee why not ask the Russians and the UK one on Cyprus and all the other OTHRs operating at the time,
To find out if you had HF prop between central Australia and Malaysia...
You would need the sounder data from Xmas island, but it would be easy using IPS charts on the day to see the MUF on the NW path to see if the OTHR would have produced a paint, which would be just a dot and have to be correlated with other radar data from Malaysia to join the dots.
I think if the RAAF have data they have given it to their Orion pilots and it maybe the reason why the search area has been narrowed slightly.
I still ask the question (please don't shoot the messenger) if the aircraft was under pilot/hijacker control, how did the people involved control 200 passengers for 7 hours going into daylight over vast expanses of ocean.
When it would become obvious that they weren't going to China?
As in Boston a few passengers could easily overcome the person guarding them and the longer the standoff went on the more determined the people would become to find out what was going on and try something.
And so far no one on board appears to be a radical...bent of self destruction 3000km out in a remote ocean. what would be the point?
Last edited by ZAZ; 20th Mar 2014 at 02:58.
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The blog post linked to by marlin was rather unimpressive IMO.
The writer of it ought to bear the following points in mind:
(a) The Indian radars covering the Andaman Islands may not have been on during the night because it was "too expensive" according to some reports recently.
(b) Also, there ought to be more coordination between different countries. You could have a situation where a plane hijacked by terrorists cleverly flies along the air borders between, for example, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia and none of those countries scrambles its fighter jets because they each think it's not in their territory, flying in the other direction, and "not a threat". The plane could then change direction at the last minute before an attack.
The writer of it ought to bear the following points in mind:
(a) The Indian radars covering the Andaman Islands may not have been on during the night because it was "too expensive" according to some reports recently.
(b) Also, there ought to be more coordination between different countries. You could have a situation where a plane hijacked by terrorists cleverly flies along the air borders between, for example, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia and none of those countries scrambles its fighter jets because they each think it's not in their territory, flying in the other direction, and "not a threat". The plane could then change direction at the last minute before an attack.
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A "join the dots" plot is not possible from one satellite. There would be several full circles, one for each ping, no dots. Parts of each circle could be eliminated but an exact plot would be impossible from the ping data from only one satellite.
This is the unfortuate truth of the matter. If a second satellite was involved two connect the dots plots could be made, one to the north the other to the south in a mirror image.
If a third satellite was in line with the first two it wouldn't help anything but if it was off the line to the north or south it would pinpoint the exact location.
This is the unfortuate truth of the matter. If a second satellite was involved two connect the dots plots could be made, one to the north the other to the south in a mirror image.
If a third satellite was in line with the first two it wouldn't help anything but if it was off the line to the north or south it would pinpoint the exact location.
However like many have said on here ian_W and I thjnk yourself and others there must be ways to extrapolate some date out of the missing ping data basesd on the spacing (range between them, estimated speed etc and if looks as if the experts have done it.
should have released it who knows perhaps ppruners would have come up with an answer earlier
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Thanks for the feed back, sorry it too 6000 message befoe I got there.
Apparently Jindalee wouldn't have picked it up,for one it might not have been on and another it apparently is used to concentrate on areas for periods of time.
Some years ago I heard the claim, not refuted, that no civilian had ever actually seen what Jindalle produces. So we really don't know.
The reason I took the aircraft out to BEDAX was so that the Indonesian radar wouldn't have seen it. Again, I have to make a presumtion that the radar at Lhokseumawe was not capable of primary returns or it didn't have the power. All the circles on the map are 60 nm, but, depending on power they shoud be capable of much further than that.
I'll have a look at the due south idea, because that was actually my first thought, the pilot took it to a certain waypoint and then headed south.
Apparently Jindalee wouldn't have picked it up,for one it might not have been on and another it apparently is used to concentrate on areas for periods of time.
Some years ago I heard the claim, not refuted, that no civilian had ever actually seen what Jindalle produces. So we really don't know.
The reason I took the aircraft out to BEDAX was so that the Indonesian radar wouldn't have seen it. Again, I have to make a presumtion that the radar at Lhokseumawe was not capable of primary returns or it didn't have the power. All the circles on the map are 60 nm, but, depending on power they shoud be capable of much further than that.
I'll have a look at the due south idea, because that was actually my first thought, the pilot took it to a certain waypoint and then headed south.
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@marlin
Thank you. This is my suspicion since a long time. The malaysian air force did not scamble because it was an identified track. They had never lost it but marked as civil, friend or whatever is their denomination. Now I would love to see the track plot from their air command system published for the exact track the aircraft took.
The indonesian radar did not pick it up because it never went that far!
Thank you. This is my suspicion since a long time. The malaysian air force did not scamble because it was an identified track. They had never lost it but marked as civil, friend or whatever is their denomination. Now I would love to see the track plot from their air command system published for the exact track the aircraft took.
The indonesian radar did not pick it up because it never went that far!
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Marlin: "Why the Malaysian fighters were not scrambled"
Aha...nothing like a poke in the eye with a sharp stick to provoke a response and when you filter out the understandably indignant adjectives at:
MH370: I Speak Out | The Crap In Between SeaDemon's Ears
what is left reveals a fairly close correlation with the path proposed by "Read my ACARS" at:
MAS370
Which is an excellent piece of deduction.
Am guessing that the new radar data likely came from the Andaman Islands base which is why the donor wishes to remain anonymous.
MH370: I Speak Out | The Crap In Between SeaDemon's Ears
what is left reveals a fairly close correlation with the path proposed by "Read my ACARS" at:
MAS370
Which is an excellent piece of deduction.
Am guessing that the new radar data likely came from the Andaman Islands base which is why the donor wishes to remain anonymous.
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Lakedude and oldoberon:
Actually it's a fairly simple relative velocity calculation, if you assume steady course and speed. Ranges from pings at hourly intervals give you velocity made good (VMG) over the hour towards the satellite's position; for a given speed there are only two possible courses which would generate that VMG - one (assuming closing on satellite's position) NW, one SW.
Repeat for whatever speed range you want to get, and for each speed you'll get a different pair of tracks. If you know the pings, it's a simple calculation which I'm sure would have been done within hours of the ping information reaching the authorities.
So they presumably have a good reason for not making it public.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lakedude
A "join the dots" plot is not possible from one satellite. There would be several full circles, one for each ping, no dots. Parts of each circle could be eliminated but an exact plot would be impossible from the ping data from only one satellite.
This is the unfortuate truth of the matter. If a second satellite was involved two connect the dots plots could be made, one to the north the other to the south in a mirror image.
If a third satellite was in line with the first two it wouldn't help anything but if it was off the line to the north or south it would pinpoint the exact location.
Think we all know that except the good prof.
However like many have said on here ian_W and I thjnk yourself and others there must be ways to extrapolate some date out of the missing ping data basesd on the spacing (range between them, estimated speed etc and if looks as if the experts have done it.
should have released it who knows perhaps ppruners would have come up with an answer earlier
Originally Posted by lakedude
A "join the dots" plot is not possible from one satellite. There would be several full circles, one for each ping, no dots. Parts of each circle could be eliminated but an exact plot would be impossible from the ping data from only one satellite.
This is the unfortuate truth of the matter. If a second satellite was involved two connect the dots plots could be made, one to the north the other to the south in a mirror image.
If a third satellite was in line with the first two it wouldn't help anything but if it was off the line to the north or south it would pinpoint the exact location.
Think we all know that except the good prof.
However like many have said on here ian_W and I thjnk yourself and others there must be ways to extrapolate some date out of the missing ping data basesd on the spacing (range between them, estimated speed etc and if looks as if the experts have done it.
should have released it who knows perhaps ppruners would have come up with an answer earlier
Repeat for whatever speed range you want to get, and for each speed you'll get a different pair of tracks. If you know the pings, it's a simple calculation which I'm sure would have been done within hours of the ping information reaching the authorities.
So they presumably have a good reason for not making it public.
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Something found.
Live from question times in the parliament of Australia. PM Tony Abbott just informed the house that some debris have been found and might relate to MH370. They're dispachng assets to verify.
Update---
Just watching Australian Parliament live and the Prime Minister just announced new information has come to hand from expert satellite photo analysis. They have spotted possible debris in the water and a P3 is expected oven that location at this time of writing 03:08 UTC
Just watching Australian Parliament live and the Prime Minister just announced new information has come to hand from expert satellite photo analysis. They have spotted possible debris in the water and a P3 is expected oven that location at this time of writing 03:08 UTC
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JTOHR common knowledge
And like I said the other day it is being used to look for Asylum seeker boats at the moment not aircraft.
OTHR had a display at AVALON AIRSHOW with diagrams, the people said the only way to beat OTHR was to fly TANGENTIALLY, which correct me but according to the great map above the track was just about tangential to the transmitter site and at the limit of the somewhat low powered Harts Range NT.
At extreme range the backscatter returns would determine the resolution, and a plane makes a small fast target boats are slower, bigger and better and what OTHR was designed for..
REF below.........
This paper presents an overview of ship detection by high-frequency (HF) skywave backscatter over-the-horizon radar (OTHR). Ships have been detected at ranges of 2000 km or more by OTHR that uses sufficient resolution in the radar spatial and Doppler frequency domains. The HF sea-echo Doppler spectrum limits the target signal-to-clutter ratio (SCR), as a function of the ocean wave-height distribution, wind direction, radio frequency, and ship target radial velocity. Maximum sea-clutter spectrum purity, and hence larger SCR, is achieved with the use of stable single-mode ionospheric propagation. Real-time measurement and interpretation of ionospheric propagation features therefore must guide the choice of OTHR operating frequency. Experimental data recorded at the ONR/SR1 Wide Aperture Research Facility (WARF) bistatic OTHR in central California demonstrate reliable ship detection in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. WARF transmits 1-MW average effective radiated power, using a linear frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) waveform, and receives with a 2.55-km broadside array of vertical monopole element pairs. Swept bandwidths as high as 200 kHz have been used. Sufficient spectral resolution is achieved with a coherent integration time (CIT) of 12.8 s. Longer CIT, and autoregressive (AR) spectral analysis techniques such as Marple's algorithm, have been used to improve Doppler resolution.
Published in:
Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of (Volume:11 , Issue: 2  
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"The indonesian radar did not pick it up because it never went that far!"
Wouldn't it have been difficult for the plane to have avoided Indonesian airspace if it flew in the southern direction?
Wouldn't it have been difficult for the plane to have avoided Indonesian airspace if it flew in the southern direction?
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I have found something so ridiculous it just has to be a stupid coincidence, but the logic is so good, I feel compelled to share it with you, even at risk of upsetting the mods.
Question…..If the best place to start looking on the southern arc is where the Aussies are now starting to search, where is the best place on the northern arc ?
Answer….In the symmetrical location in the northern hemisphere, i.e. just turn the Aussies South Latitudes into North Latitudes.
In planning their search, the Aussies will I suggest (unlike us and the press) have had full access to all the pings, at best accuracy, and will have done the best possible calculations to merge and reconcile them based on suitable assumptions ("joining the dots").
And here's the point: apart from some differences near the beginning, where uncertainty is big anyway, such calculations would likely be equally valid in either hemisphere.
So I looked.
Takliman Desert. Uyghurs.
I wish I hadn't found this…its too stupid for words.
It really looks as though - if the Aussies were in the Northern Hemisphere, they'd be searching the land of the very Ughyur terrorists who were the first and only group to have claimed this disappearance as their work. The claim was, it seems, laughed out of court.
You couldn't make it up, could you?
Please someone check and tell me I'm wrong. It makes no logical sense at all. It has to be either error or coincidence.
I see no possible reason to take MH370 there.
PS…incidentally, the Aussie search area is bang on the 40 degree arc…they obviously believe in the Inmarsat data.
Question…..If the best place to start looking on the southern arc is where the Aussies are now starting to search, where is the best place on the northern arc ?
Answer….In the symmetrical location in the northern hemisphere, i.e. just turn the Aussies South Latitudes into North Latitudes.
In planning their search, the Aussies will I suggest (unlike us and the press) have had full access to all the pings, at best accuracy, and will have done the best possible calculations to merge and reconcile them based on suitable assumptions ("joining the dots").
And here's the point: apart from some differences near the beginning, where uncertainty is big anyway, such calculations would likely be equally valid in either hemisphere.
So I looked.
Takliman Desert. Uyghurs.
I wish I hadn't found this…its too stupid for words.
It really looks as though - if the Aussies were in the Northern Hemisphere, they'd be searching the land of the very Ughyur terrorists who were the first and only group to have claimed this disappearance as their work. The claim was, it seems, laughed out of court.
You couldn't make it up, could you?
Please someone check and tell me I'm wrong. It makes no logical sense at all. It has to be either error or coincidence.
I see no possible reason to take MH370 there.
PS…incidentally, the Aussie search area is bang on the 40 degree arc…they obviously believe in the Inmarsat data.
Wreckage?
Sounds as though Australian P3 Orions are tracking to debris. Australian Maritime Safety will be holding a press conference in just over an hour from now. @ 1530 AEDT.
Last edited by flyingfox; 20th Mar 2014 at 03:25. Reason: Spelling
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