Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[FE Hoppy]

There are a few summaries of "Fact" on here.

This is mine
TO ("standard fuel load")................00:41(MAS)
TOC (FL350)....................................01:02(FR24)
ACARS data ....................................01:07(MAS)
Last Comms....................................01:19 (Sub)
Last SSR Position IGARI....................01:21 (Sub) 01:22 (Thai)
Opposite track.................................01:28 (Thai) (no time MAS)
Last PSR Position@GIVAL ->IGREX.....02:15(MAF) 02:40(Sub first report)
Last handshake................................08:11 (Inmarsat)


That's pretty much all we know and some of that isn't very clear.

[porterhouse]

The waypoints have not been confirmed.

If it suits your agenda you may believe whatever you want.

[Lonewolf_50]

Airbubba, something to chew on in the old "what would you do if _____?" ready room discussion.

From the IGARI waypoint, what point could they get to and land within about 15 minutes?

I recall a "rule of thumb" (which I have seen discussed here on PPRuNe regarding in flight fire scenarios) that if you don't get the fire out / aircraft on the ground in about fifteen minutes, the chances of it all ending in tears increases dramatically.

IF fire is what's happening, a location he can get to in 15 minutes strikes mes as the first target for a Captain of that experience level.

Complications include:
It's now a non-moonlit night
Flying a heavy with a substantial fuel load still on board
Few airports open at night.
Crash crew potentially available

Further this thought:

IF fire, and IF ALSO successful fire put out (hooray for the crew!) Captain still wants to land soon, but as fire is no longer burning more time available and thus more landing options.

[dmba]

For any fact being listed, please link to the official source. Otherwise you going to breathe life in to the mess that currently exists. ACARS has simply not been confirmed as being turned off at 1:07. 'At least 12 minutes' does not mean 12 minutes...

[FE Hoppy]

@Lonewolf.

The 15 minutes comes the iso standard for "Fireproof". Someone somewhere at sometime read that "Fireproof" as used in CS25 means withstand 1100°C for 15 minutes and made the rest up from there.

[oldoberon]

BBC 24hr news (sky 503) tickertape says

"satellite signal can only come from a moving plane - BBC has learned" no source given

[Alchad]

BBC News Comment

On the BBC 24 hours news programme tonight, the transport correspondent (I think) was making a big point -"BBC has just learnt etc" that the last ping had to have come from a moving aircraft and not a stationary one.

Doesn't seem right from what I've read on here, thought it just needed power, but reporting it in case it makes more sense to anyone else.

[flown-it]

Lonewolf_50

[QUOTE I recall a "rule of thumb" (which I have seen discussed here on PPRuNe regarding in flight fire scenarios) that if you don't get the fire out / aircraft on the ground in about fifteen minutes, the chances of it all ending in tears increases dramatically. ]

I recall 12 to 18 minutes and that's the time frame I give in my sim sessions.
VMO/MMO to around 10 miles and do the approach in LNAV/VNAV particularly if your plane doesn't auto load the ILS. WHatever it takes to get lined up and below the clouds.

[md80fanatic]

Just as a point of reference, I managed a basic motion stabilization of the video of the 767 ditching off the Comoros Islands in the early 90's. This is what happens when a 767 is set down softly into medium surf. Port wing/engine ripped away cleanly and the resulting roll over to the now wingless side forces the starboard wing to break just outboard of the engine pylon. The sailboat image posted earlier of an average day in the waters where MH370 is being searched would probably end much worse than this.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6xodugyc5d...ormalspeed.mp4

[awblain]

It's possible that the BBC might have learned that there is Doppler information available from the spectrum of the ping signal, which is perhaps possible. *

Then again, on their "what we known" page BBC News - Missing Malaysia plane: What we know their 777s appear to be -300s with 6 doors.

* How big an effect?

It's small - on the 40 degree arc, flying towards the satellite at 200m/s - only of order 1 part in 2 million, so it's not likely to be of any use.

[Tomescu]

Apologies if it was posted before, I couldn't find it. It amazes me the fact that nobody on TV and other mass-media channels did not mention anything about the Heading Selector knob from the MCP. All the TV "specialists" are talking about some " pre-programmed" waypoints. I speculate it would be a lot faster and perhaps more convenient to disengage the LNAV and change the direction using the Heading Selector instead of reprogramming the flight path on the CDU.

[deadheader]

knowns, facts & fallacies

@DS, thanks for keeping the timeline updated & re-posting... evidently many posters ignore scores of previous posts entirely & present the same ol' flawed scenarios to feed their own denial & bias. Some of them are "pilots" too! Funny old world.


If anyone bothers to read this before posting yet another smoke filled cockpit electrical fire depressurisation hypoxia type lazy amateur hour version of events, please, for the sake of our collective sanity, please first answer one very simple question:


Why did someone in the cockpit enter a new waypoint into the FMS but subsequently fail to mention this during their conversation with ATC?!?!?

[Lonewolf_50]

@Pace:

Why on earth would a hijacker wanting to route somewhere want to bother loading a route or flying waypoints?

One reason: to avoid try and avoid detection until closer to intended destination. Heading selector seems an easier way, though.

I also wonder how deep the seas are in the areas being searched?

The area ~ 2000 miles west from Australia? Thousands of feet deep, most of it looked to be past the 1000 fathom curve when I consulted an old atlas last night. This pic may help. This has a bit more detail.

@ FE Hoppy. Thanks, my previous response was binned.

[Gamebeater]

Waypoint Entry Challenged

Why did someone in the cockpit enter a new waypoint into the FMS but subsequently fail to mention this during their conversation with ATC?!?!?



Where is the evidence of waypoint entry or even prior waypoint entry? The premise is off. Even the Malaysian pressers have walked that back.

[Jilted]

Why did someone in the cockpit enter a new waypoint into the FMS but subsequently fail to mention this during their conversation with ATC?!?!?

There is absolutely no evidence that a new waypoint was entered other than journalist speculation.

[Pace]

One reason: to avoid try and avoid detection until closer to intended destination.

Lonewolf

I would have thought the very opposite as an aircraft which had lost radio and transponder identification the first obvious place to look would be along set airways?

[TDK mk2]

How about a massive electrical failure caused by electromagnetic radiation from an external source. Electrical systems rendered inoperative. Engines continue to run as fadecs shielded and supplied by permanent magnet alternators. FBW Flight controls out but aircraft could be turned with rudder deflection, is that physically connected to the pedals on the 777? But with no way to reduce thrust and cabin alt rising crew would then have had to don masks hampering communication, or may have become hypoxic. So in darkness with no roll or pitch control, no way to reduce thrust, and possibly impaired judgement perhaps they could have ended up in the water south west of Australia 7 hours later when the fuel ran out.

[Zorin_75]

Pprune is a RUMOUR network meaning we can all speculate as there is little to go on.

Bull. There's discussing rumours and there's making them up out of thin air. Big difference.

[oldoberon]

Originally Posted by awblain

It's possible that the BBC might have learned that there is Doppler information available from the spectrum of the ping signal, which is perhaps possible.

Then again, on their "what we known" page BBC News - Missing Malaysia plane: What we know their 777s appear to be -300s with 6 doors.

if they are talking about the theory of pinging I agree with the comments of rubbish, however I like your thinking, they have been told it but don't realise why

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Pace

I would have thought the very opposite as an aircraft which had lost radio and transponder identification the first obvious place to look would be along set airways?

Fair point. Guessing the motives of persons unknown is a tricky business.