Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Pilots have oxygen masks in the cockpit, and the first thing we do if we detect smoke in the cockpit is to put them on! Not the bloody smoke hood!
What is this? Amateurs night?
What is this? Amateurs night?
Freight God
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Heli-phile, Porterhouse
you are incredible! You KNOW they selected menus to stop ACARS?
The only FACTS we have is that the transponder stopped sending return signals and that ACARS stopped sending messages. WHY this is, we do NOT KNOW.
And the "Track" with waypoints is not official knowledge but an assumption by someone playing around with skyvector.
you are incredible! You KNOW they selected menus to stop ACARS?
The only FACTS we have is that the transponder stopped sending return signals and that ACARS stopped sending messages. WHY this is, we do NOT KNOW.
And the "Track" with waypoints is not official knowledge but an assumption by someone playing around with skyvector.
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If you had followed this thread you would have read the factors that make the fire in flight scenario a less than likely option. Fire cannot deselect transponders, nor call up menu options to shut down ACARS systematically, let alone preselect route 2 waypoints on the FMS.
(a) the fire had to burn such it disabled the power to certain electrical components and not other electrical components despite the fact that these electrical components are on the same power circuit.
(b) that this fire was hot and heavy enough to result in the incapacitation of the pilots yet light enough to burn itself out before effecting any of the control surfaces, cabling, etc so the plane could fly for five more hours.
Last edited by MountainBear; 19th Mar 2014 at 19:05. Reason: effect vs affect
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The only FACTS we have is that the transponder stopped sending return signals and that ACARS stopped sending messages.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike757007
Question ? Assuming the aircraft flew on without human input until it ran out of fuel. When it hit the sea, would the aircraft fuselage stay intact, or would it disintegrate creating lots of surface wreckage ?
Saigon 480
I would expect lots of surface wreckage.
Even if “Sully” Sullenberger tried to land a B777 at night on ocean swells I would expect lots of surface wreckage.
Pontius Navigator
As with everything else here, it depends.
There have been several recorded instances of aircraft making soft landings without human intervention. Admittedly the ones I know of were military jets where the crew had banged out, but there is no reason to suppose that the aircraft may have made a very shallow descent, alighted and remained intact.
Photo of a typical day on the ocean at the end of the southern arc:
Originally Posted by mike757007
Question ? Assuming the aircraft flew on without human input until it ran out of fuel. When it hit the sea, would the aircraft fuselage stay intact, or would it disintegrate creating lots of surface wreckage ?
Saigon 480
I would expect lots of surface wreckage.
Even if “Sully” Sullenberger tried to land a B777 at night on ocean swells I would expect lots of surface wreckage.
Pontius Navigator
As with everything else here, it depends.
There have been several recorded instances of aircraft making soft landings without human intervention. Admittedly the ones I know of were military jets where the crew had banged out, but there is no reason to suppose that the aircraft may have made a very shallow descent, alighted and remained intact.
Photo of a typical day on the ocean at the end of the southern arc:
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The following quote is from Chris Goodfellow as posted on Google+. He has 20 years experience as a Canadian Class-1 instrumented-rated pilot for multi-engine aircraft.
In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time.
Before complaining about the lack of skills in journalism, he should also make a quick google search to check his facts ...
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My view on this:
Something very dramatic happened aboard, maybe a fire in the electric bay and all went black, no comms, toxic fumes and so on. The captain promptly set a course to return and thought that Langkawi airport was the best option due to its clear terrain, low traffic and direct approach. Meanwhile things got worse in the cockpit, they lost conscience due to smoke inhalation and the autopilot kept it’s programmed course, passed low near Langkawi, Pulau Perak and all the Malacca Strait as reported by the radar, and went in the direction of the Indian Ocean.
Eye witness reports from Kudahuvadhoo of a low passing plane in the morning have been dismissed on the basis that no radar has recorded any unusual traffic, but maybe it’s because the plane was flying too low. And as we know, eyewitness reports are always taken with a grain of salt whenever there is an air incident.
I, for one, think that the airplane is somewhere not very far from Kudahuvadhoo in the Maldives taking into account that it flew at low altitude with lots of drag, it would be in the very limit of the 777 range at such altitude. If we cross a straight line from the point the transponder stopped transmitting to Kudahuvadhoo all this assumptions make some logic, they flew very near Langkawi, and crossed the Mallaca Strait. Also this has some consistency with the Inmarsat data.
Something very dramatic happened aboard, maybe a fire in the electric bay and all went black, no comms, toxic fumes and so on. The captain promptly set a course to return and thought that Langkawi airport was the best option due to its clear terrain, low traffic and direct approach. Meanwhile things got worse in the cockpit, they lost conscience due to smoke inhalation and the autopilot kept it’s programmed course, passed low near Langkawi, Pulau Perak and all the Malacca Strait as reported by the radar, and went in the direction of the Indian Ocean.
Eye witness reports from Kudahuvadhoo of a low passing plane in the morning have been dismissed on the basis that no radar has recorded any unusual traffic, but maybe it’s because the plane was flying too low. And as we know, eyewitness reports are always taken with a grain of salt whenever there is an air incident.
I, for one, think that the airplane is somewhere not very far from Kudahuvadhoo in the Maldives taking into account that it flew at low altitude with lots of drag, it would be in the very limit of the 777 range at such altitude. If we cross a straight line from the point the transponder stopped transmitting to Kudahuvadhoo all this assumptions make some logic, they flew very near Langkawi, and crossed the Mallaca Strait. Also this has some consistency with the Inmarsat data.
Last edited by MountainSnake; 19th Mar 2014 at 20:04.
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Whatever 'we' know is miniscule - investigators aren't going to throw all their cards on the table. Still probably enough to enable professionals to predict how, if not who.
This disappearance is still most likely to be due to a criminal offence. Any evidence needs to be preserved, not concealed or destroyed.
However, the public treatment of these grieving families is disgraceful and inexcusable.
This disappearance is still most likely to be due to a criminal offence. Any evidence needs to be preserved, not concealed or destroyed.
However, the public treatment of these grieving families is disgraceful and inexcusable.
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Gentlemen,
I personally and I am sure lots of other experienced flight crew update secondary flight plans on a regular basis with turns towards waypoints for the closest suitable diversion field.
There is nothing abnormal about this, it is called AIRMANSHIP.
Alright goodnight, is a STANDARD goodbye greeting at handover. NOWHERE is it mentioned that the frequency was omitted in the readback.
Greetings,
Despegue, an ACTUAL Airline Captain.
I personally and I am sure lots of other experienced flight crew update secondary flight plans on a regular basis with turns towards waypoints for the closest suitable diversion field.
There is nothing abnormal about this, it is called AIRMANSHIP.
Alright goodnight, is a STANDARD goodbye greeting at handover. NOWHERE is it mentioned that the frequency was omitted in the readback.
Greetings,
Despegue, an ACTUAL Airline Captain.
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Quote:
The meaningful question in the absence of data is "what are the odds of getting five heads in a row?" or in this case the question I asked about both failing in a short time span.
These are classed as random events; if, under a given set of circumstances the probability of each one failing is X, the probability of both failing is X provided there is no interdependency, i.e that the probability of failure of either is not affected by the failure of the other.
The meaningful question in the absence of data is "what are the odds of getting five heads in a row?" or in this case the question I asked about both failing in a short time span.
These are classed as random events; if, under a given set of circumstances the probability of each one failing is X, the probability of both failing is X provided there is no interdependency, i.e that the probability of failure of either is not affected by the failure of the other.
Pulau Langkawi
Makes sense for a rational pilot. But didn't have time? He didn't need 7+ hours to get there.
Wasn't this area heavily searched once the SAR teams went west?
Wasn't this area heavily searched once the SAR teams went west?
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On probabilities
There seem to be several statements about odds here and there in this thread. So let me ask (as an SLF) a question to someone who knows the inner working of a 777:
What are the odds that a sudden event is going to make every form of communication impossible (or not a priority), disable ACARS, and at some point, incapacitate pilots (and the rest of the crew, and the passengers), but STILL the autopilot is going to keep the whole plane on a fixed course across the Indian Ocean until running out of fuel?
Common sense suggests that at some point things are going to escalate even further and A/P is going to be switched off.
What are the odds that a sudden event is going to make every form of communication impossible (or not a priority), disable ACARS, and at some point, incapacitate pilots (and the rest of the crew, and the passengers), but STILL the autopilot is going to keep the whole plane on a fixed course across the Indian Ocean until running out of fuel?
Common sense suggests that at some point things are going to escalate even further and A/P is going to be switched off.
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despegue
good for you.
I wish every real airline pilot would simply say:
A 777 is missing. Beyond that we really know and I MEAN KNOW, anything else.
I haven't heard the full ATC tape, have you?
I haven't actually seen or talked with the radar operators at military radar sites, have you?
good for you.
I wish every real airline pilot would simply say:
A 777 is missing. Beyond that we really know and I MEAN KNOW, anything else.
I haven't heard the full ATC tape, have you?
I haven't actually seen or talked with the radar operators at military radar sites, have you?
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indeed, and the last 2 'pings' on the same arc some 7-8 hours after IGARI seem to eliminate innumerable other options which 'seem' to make more sense in some scenarios.
I really hope these 'pings' aren't a red herring.
I really hope these 'pings' aren't a red herring.
Langkawi was not even the closest airport at the time when the aircraft turned back. Kota Bharu (WMKC) and Kuala Terengganu (WMKN) would have been some 200 km closer. Problem is, all of these 3 airports close at or before midnight local time, according to Malaysian AIP. The logical choice would be Penang, about the same distance as Langkawi, and open 24/7.
Where is the bloody +1 or 'I Like' Button when you Need it!
There are People here proclaiming rumours as 'Knowledge'.
Guys, some of you are too easy to fool.
Even the 'official' Statements are often contradictory, revised or modified the other day.
Then some purported comments from sources left and right field from the US and China again sometimes contradicting each other.
I would consider none of this as 'Knowledge' at all. In my daily life I would take this quality of Information with more than a Grain of Salt. So do I in this case.
Looks like mixture of politics, bits of Information with unclear source and history and conclusions based on these data.
Let's simply hope someone happens to stumble across wreckage soon before it will become impossible to backtrack it - assuming it's in the Sea (which I tend to consider more likely than not finding a 300t Airliner over land in more than a week).
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Because there have been a couple mentions/questions of time, and because of a couple slight adjustments have been made, I want to again present the Timeline for easy reference...
What we know* timeline
(*or at least have a separate "unidentified official" verification on from a reputable source)
- 1:07 - ACARS last transmission (thru VHF) which apparently includes notation of a WP change having been entered into system since last scheduled report at 12:37
- 1:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite?)
- 1:19 - 'Alright, Good Night' at handover (supposedly by co-pilot)
- 1:22 - Transponder goes off
(note: those previous two might be reversed, we have multiple sources seemingly confirming both possibilities. One happened at 1:19, one at 1:22 though. I'm putting them in this order mainly because...)
- 1:22 - Plane goes out of range/black from Thailand Radar (likely from the transponder going black and not the plane going out of range)
- 1:28 - Unidentified plane shows up on Thailand Radar roughly off the Kota Bharu, Malaysia coast (at Malaysia/Thailand border) and this apparently shows plane crossing the Peninsula (without going over Thailand land) to the Straights of Malacca (unknown endtime for this path)
- somewhere between 1:15-1:30 - Vietnam sees plane turn around.
(note: they have not told us a specific time of turn or if they know this because of a Military or ATC radar hit, but they told Malaysia they 'watched plane turn around' sometime shortly after contact was lost)
- roughly 1:30-forward, Vietnam is "frantically" trying to contact the plane
- 1:37 - ACARS misses scheduled transmission
- 1:30-1:45 - at minimum 11 eye witness reports from around and past the Kota Bharu, Malaysia/Thailand border areas (including one saying 'plane descending fast' like one of the later radar hits indicates)
- 2:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- between 1:30-2:40 - Malaysian Military and Civilian radar picks up an "unidentified" plane flying over peninsula (Daud says "this was corroborated by civilian radar" in the March 9th press conference). Those include a couple radar WP hits we have specifically been told about* (and who knows how many that haven't been provided/leaked):
... VAMPI
... GIVAL
... IGREX
(note: we are not sure of the timing of the radar hits, and there is very contradictory evidence here. The most recent seemingly-official time is 2:15 for the last hit. Which hit that was, we don't know for sure)
- post 2:15/or/2:40 apparent absolute complete blackout of plane (except...)
- 3:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 4:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 5:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 6:11 - IINMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 7:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite) near 40 Degree line
- 7:24 - Statement released by Malaysian Officials saying contact lost at 2:40 and SAR efforts are underway
- 8:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite) (thru Satellite) on 40 Degree line
*those way-points on map
(Note on map: the Thailand radar data indicates a straight path from IGARI to VAMPI is not possible ("plane never over Thiland,") so there are more unknown/unreleased turns in there somewhere. Please do not read that map as a 'straight flight' from WP to WP; it was not a straight path over the peninsula, in the very least)
............................................................ ......................................
Anyone have any other times to add and/or corrections? Any details you think should be included? Would like to keep this as updated and accurate as possible for all, and any input is welcome! (just, also want to keep it to things cross verified, so please keep that in mind during suggestions - that is why things like the possible post-1:30 JapanBoundFlight/MH88 call is not included here)
What we know* timeline
(*or at least have a separate "unidentified official" verification on from a reputable source)
- 1:07 - ACARS last transmission (thru VHF) which apparently includes notation of a WP change having been entered into system since last scheduled report at 12:37
- 1:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite?)
- 1:19 - 'Alright, Good Night' at handover (supposedly by co-pilot)
- 1:22 - Transponder goes off
(note: those previous two might be reversed, we have multiple sources seemingly confirming both possibilities. One happened at 1:19, one at 1:22 though. I'm putting them in this order mainly because...)
- 1:22 - Plane goes out of range/black from Thailand Radar (likely from the transponder going black and not the plane going out of range)
- 1:28 - Unidentified plane shows up on Thailand Radar roughly off the Kota Bharu, Malaysia coast (at Malaysia/Thailand border) and this apparently shows plane crossing the Peninsula (without going over Thailand land) to the Straights of Malacca (unknown endtime for this path)
- somewhere between 1:15-1:30 - Vietnam sees plane turn around.
(note: they have not told us a specific time of turn or if they know this because of a Military or ATC radar hit, but they told Malaysia they 'watched plane turn around' sometime shortly after contact was lost)
- roughly 1:30-forward, Vietnam is "frantically" trying to contact the plane
- 1:37 - ACARS misses scheduled transmission
- 1:30-1:45 - at minimum 11 eye witness reports from around and past the Kota Bharu, Malaysia/Thailand border areas (including one saying 'plane descending fast' like one of the later radar hits indicates)
- 2:11 - INMARSAT ping would have been received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- between 1:30-2:40 - Malaysian Military and Civilian radar picks up an "unidentified" plane flying over peninsula (Daud says "this was corroborated by civilian radar" in the March 9th press conference). Those include a couple radar WP hits we have specifically been told about* (and who knows how many that haven't been provided/leaked):
... VAMPI
... GIVAL
... IGREX
(note: we are not sure of the timing of the radar hits, and there is very contradictory evidence here. The most recent seemingly-official time is 2:15 for the last hit. Which hit that was, we don't know for sure)
- post 2:15/or/2:40 apparent absolute complete blackout of plane (except...)
- 3:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 4:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 5:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 6:11 - IINMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite)
- 7:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite) near 40 Degree line
- 7:24 - Statement released by Malaysian Officials saying contact lost at 2:40 and SAR efforts are underway
- 8:11 - INMARSAT ping received. This has some unexplained connection to Boeing's AHM report (thru Satellite) (thru Satellite) on 40 Degree line
*those way-points on map
(Note on map: the Thailand radar data indicates a straight path from IGARI to VAMPI is not possible ("plane never over Thiland,") so there are more unknown/unreleased turns in there somewhere. Please do not read that map as a 'straight flight' from WP to WP; it was not a straight path over the peninsula, in the very least)
............................................................ ......................................
Anyone have any other times to add and/or corrections? Any details you think should be included? Would like to keep this as updated and accurate as possible for all, and any input is welcome! (just, also want to keep it to things cross verified, so please keep that in mind during suggestions - that is why things like the possible post-1:30 JapanBoundFlight/MH88 call is not included here)
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01:07 ACARS deliberately switched off?
If the Airplane took off at 1241am, maybe at 107am the PNF needed to relay a departure message to company and used the Center radio taking it out of VHF DATA? Maybe he never put it back to VHF DATA, the EICAS would show VHF DATA message of course but no ACARS. Not sure what comms set up MH have. Can someone verify? Is HF DATA installed on COMM 1 or 2. They may not have been set either. Is SATCOM installed? What DMI's/MEL's did the airplane carry? Just saying, there are other ways ACARS could be turned off inadvertently.
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The logical choice would be Penang, about the same distance as Langkawi, and open 24/7.
Why worry about the airport being open if its an emergency? Well, for one, you would have a crash crew on duty. And KLIA would have a lot more equipment than Penang (even though PEN handles pax B-744's).