Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[D.S.]

INTEL101 said

Shortly after takeoff, as Malaysia 370 was flying out over the ocean, just after the co-pilot gave his final "Good night" sign-off to Malaysia air traffic control, smoke began filling the cockpit, perhaps from a tire on the front landing gear that had ignited on takeoff.

The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do: turn the plane toward the closest airport so he could land.

This theory, unfortunately, pretty much falls apart right out the gates.

- it ignores the ACARS message indicating WP was altered prior t 1:07

- Between the two paragraphs events, ACARS would have sent emergency messages indicating major problems on board.

- Then, the nearest safe location to land was likely Vietnam anyway, not a frantic turn back to where you came from. (this is especially true if the cockpit is that bad off already)

- Plus, if the fire is believed to be that bad (bad enough to turn off most/all systems before you start reacting) you probably don't want to fly the plane over a city with a population of 577,000 people (Kota Bharu) and instead want to attempt a sea landing

[bsieker]

D.S.,

- 3:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 4:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 5:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 6:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 7:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite) near 40 Degree line
[...]
- 8:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite) on 40 Degree line

(my bold)

Where does Boeing enter into it? Malaysia Airlines did not have a health monitoring contract with Boeing. And even if, these transmissions would have gone via ACARS, which was apparently disabled/inactive/switched off/...

These "attempted messages" as you call them, were keepalive-pings to the INMARSAT network, and have nothing to do with either ACARS, Boeing, or anyone else.

[GarageYears]

What difference does it make....?

Airborne at 0041....last recorded satellite "ping" at 0811. Fuel: 7:30

Well, I don't know where on that arc that ping occurred... the furthest they went along that arc is defined by max speed from the last recorded point on the radar trace, limited only by fuel load.

[DaveReidUK]

If the circles are relatively close together in time

The circles (assuming that more than one could be plotted, which now seems in doubt) would be 60 minutes apart, because that's how often the satellite pings the aircraft.

The only deduction that could reasonably be made would be if the spacing between two successive rings turned to be equal to the maximum distance that the aircraft could fly in an hour. Then it would follow (as previously suggested) that the track must be along the radius of the rings, but of course that doesn't identify which radial.

If two hourly rings are spaced closer together, then it's hard to see how anything can be deduced in respect of track or groundspeed.

But as it seems that only one ring is known, it's all a bit academic.

[awblain]

Speed of sound,

I accept however that the final two pings being the same distance from the satellite would strongly suggest a stationary aircraft and more coincident arcs than that would suggest the aircraft is on land and not in the process of sinking or drifting and therefore likely to be on the 'northern arc'. Those are the only conditions that I see the prior pings being of any help to the search.

You're right - to fly equidistant from the satellite would require a non-great circle along the red arc. If the ACARS was powered off, the alleged miscreants wouldn't think they needed to worry about that, and would it even enter their heads what Inmarsat logged about data signals for Rolls Royce, and where their satellites were located?

If there are prior distance measurements, then they will help. They'll give a time to some unknown point on the arc, and thus constrain possible paths between points on the different arcs.

If the Inmarsat signal has a frequency measured in fine channels, which it probably doesn't, and better a change in frequency from signal to signal, since the properties of the transmitter aren't known, that might even add a point measurement of line-of-sight speed which would help improve the possible paths it could have taken.

[pax2908]

What useful data would have been exchanged, had Boeing decided to activate their SAT service before the event was over?

[D.S.]

bsieker

Where does Boeing enter into it? Malaysia Airlines did not have a health monitoring contract with Boeing. And even if, these transmissions would have gone via ACARS, which was apparently disabled/inactive/switched off/...

These "attempted messages" as you call them, were keepalive-pings to the INMARSAT network, and have nothing to do with either ACARS, Boeing, or anyone else.

the pings are only known (supposedly) because of Boeing's Airline Health Management system, and were not connected because of MAH not having that service plan. That is where the Boeing name came in

That said, you are correct in it being stated a bit confusing, and I will update the timeline. Thanks!

Edit to say the previous posts edit is as follows
INMARSAT ping received, as apparently Boeing's AHM report attempted to automatically transmit (thru Satellite)
That make more sense?

[rampstriker]

What useful data would have been exchanged, had Boeing decided to activate their SAT service before the event was over?

Likely nothing, since ACARS had been disabled.

[awblain]

I don't think the Maldives account and the Inmarsat tracks can be consistent. If Inmarsat hold to their technical knowledge about their system, then the Maldives witness account has to be spurious.

[SLFplatine]

Quote:
Then PF locks the cockpit door and does whatever he wants...

Okay, but why enter the wp in the first place before shutting down ACARS which will report a wp change?

[noalign]

0811 on 40
0711 near 40
the rest are omitted. The track could have been near tangent.

Also, the maps in here with the multiple course changes, didn't the PM's briefing show an offset to the right from the lines connecting the intersections. SLOP or just a convention for the graphic?

[hornet22]

Intel 101

The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do: turn the plane toward the closest airport so he could land.

From the point of last contact, RMAF Air base Kuantan would have been on the reciprocal track back towards KL. If you look at Google Maps this will be evident. This was without doubt the nearest divert airfield with Fire Services.

Kuantan is a Fast Jet Base which has Mig 29, F/A-18D and other FJ assets.

Langkawai would have been at least three times the distance and around 60-70 degrees of the reciprocal track to Kuantan.

A "land as soon as possible - nearest divert" wouldn't equate to Langkawi or Penang airfield for that matter.

Good post, however imho unlikely.

Cheers

[EDMJ]

So the aircraft was allegedly seen at 06:15 (local) in the morning over a Maledivian island. That's quite early for many people (still sleeping or just gettting up) and only a couple of minutes after local sunrise (= not the best light to spot airliner paintschemes in)....

[ManaAdaSystem]

The captain and co-pilot tried to find the source of the smoke and fire. They switched off electrical "busses" to try to isolate it, in the process turning off systems like the transponder and ACARs automated update system (but not, presumably, the autopilot, which was flying the plane). They did not issue a distress call, because in a midair emergency your priorities are "aviate, navigate, communicate" — in that order. But smoke soon filled the cockpit and overwhelmed them (a tire fire could do this). The pilots passed out or died.

A pilot would know that we have oxygen masks in the cockpit...and the first course of action would be to put them on.

[EPPO]

I don't think the Maldives account and the Inmarsat tracks can be consistent. If Inmarsat hold to their technical knowledge about their system, then the Maldives witness account has to be spurious.

Agree. Moreover, if the Maldives sighting took place at 06:15, and there were pings at 11 minutes past each hour, one of them should match. But strangely, it seems we only have the timing (=angle) data for the last two pings.

Anyway, it's nearly impossible to sort out what info is verifiable. Garbage in, garbage out.

[helimutt]

A pilot would know that we have oxygen masks in the cockpit...and the first course of action would be to put them on.

and a pilot would also know that turning on extra oxygen in the event of a fire may just lead to a bigger fire!

I agree with Romeo ET

[Ornis]

Does Acars send data routinely for Boeing's and Rolls Royce's use, even if the airline in not paying for a maintenance programme?

[awblain]

EPPO,

Even then… the Maldives are across the red track from starting point. It would have to have doubled back.

The timings of a satellite communications operator shouldn't be garbage, but there may be snafus being incorporated into the information appearing.

[LASJayhawk]

Once again. If the waypoint change was reported via ACARS at 1:07

WHY DID IT TAKE 10 DAYS to realize this information.

It's a text message TEN DAYS.

Either they are oblivious to everything, or this report is untrue like most reports have been.

[ribt4t]

and a pilot would also know that turning on extra oxygen in the event of a fire may just lead to a bigger fire!

Not really considering it feeds a mask attached to his face. It's still the first order of business if there's smoke or the smell of smoke in the cockpit.