Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
which terrorists got which publicity that would support their cause?
I'll really be impressed if we eventually learn the tail was drug somewhere along the trail to drop the black box away from the wreckage. (unbelievably unlikely, I know - but hey, look where we already are!)
Impressed, 239 dead and you are impressed at their cunning. Okay, up to you.
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"All in all the entire event still does not make a lot of sense"
SLF here. Perhaps it didn't go 'according to plan' and the bizarre disappearance we now have was unintended.
Most deliberate actions are a consequence of trying to attain a premeditated goal. If that includes long-planned suicide (or the remainder of one's life as an international criminal) by persons intelligent and informed enough to carry out this act, I fail to believe that they would throw away their lives lightly. I think they thought they had a decent chance of success, and as Occam's Razor tells us, the simplest plans with the least dependencies are the most likely to work.
It might be helpful to try to figure out what was intended, in the most basic way:
* An influential public statement, like 9/11?
Once its perpetrators had decided to act unconstrained by behavioural norms the 9/11 plan itself was quite simple and straightforward, with few dependencies. Even so, it only partly succeeded. As a public statement, so far MH370 seems to have a pretty obscure purpose, whereas 9/11 was clear and comprehensible.
* A disappearance intended to precipitate an insurance payout?
MH370 seems so far to be an unnecessarily complicated way of going about it. There have been plenty of prior instances and I'd expect an intelligent perpetrator to try to avoid their complexities, weaknesses and failures.
* An attempted theft of the airframe, its cargo, or passengers?
Sure, but once you have them, what are you going to do with them? Again, if the overall plan is complex with many dependencies its chances of success are low. As has been pointed out before it's probably easier to seize the cargo before flight. It's probably easier to kidnap individual passengers before flight. And what are they going to do with this particular airframe which couldn't be done with another? I'd have thought it would be far easier to seize a freighter or bizjet on the day if the goal was to drop a dirty bomb on a city or disrupt The Hague talks.
Most deliberate actions are a consequence of trying to attain a premeditated goal. If that includes long-planned suicide (or the remainder of one's life as an international criminal) by persons intelligent and informed enough to carry out this act, I fail to believe that they would throw away their lives lightly. I think they thought they had a decent chance of success, and as Occam's Razor tells us, the simplest plans with the least dependencies are the most likely to work.
It might be helpful to try to figure out what was intended, in the most basic way:
* An influential public statement, like 9/11?
Once its perpetrators had decided to act unconstrained by behavioural norms the 9/11 plan itself was quite simple and straightforward, with few dependencies. Even so, it only partly succeeded. As a public statement, so far MH370 seems to have a pretty obscure purpose, whereas 9/11 was clear and comprehensible.
* A disappearance intended to precipitate an insurance payout?
MH370 seems so far to be an unnecessarily complicated way of going about it. There have been plenty of prior instances and I'd expect an intelligent perpetrator to try to avoid their complexities, weaknesses and failures.
* An attempted theft of the airframe, its cargo, or passengers?
Sure, but once you have them, what are you going to do with them? Again, if the overall plan is complex with many dependencies its chances of success are low. As has been pointed out before it's probably easier to seize the cargo before flight. It's probably easier to kidnap individual passengers before flight. And what are they going to do with this particular airframe which couldn't be done with another? I'd have thought it would be far easier to seize a freighter or bizjet on the day if the goal was to drop a dirty bomb on a city or disrupt The Hague talks.
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Future implications
Why are so many on this thread speculating about the cause of this incident rather than the outcome? If it were a hijacking, what will be done about it if there were a rogue airplane waiting somewhere to be used for an attack?
Will air-corridors be monitored more thoroughly in future, will there be finally telemetry in real time mandatory for airlines rather than old fashioned black boxes, considering all the money spent on retrieving black boxes from the ocean over the last decades?
So what will be the implications for the airline industry?
Will air-corridors be monitored more thoroughly in future, will there be finally telemetry in real time mandatory for airlines rather than old fashioned black boxes, considering all the money spent on retrieving black boxes from the ocean over the last decades?
So what will be the implications for the airline industry?
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Live from KL
Malaysian investigators have categorically denied speculation that the pilot and/or FO asked to fly together.
-investigation has entered a new phase with involvement of more countries along the North Corridor (11 countries making a total of 25 countries involved in SAR). Malaysian PM has spoken to the PMs/Presidents of some countries along the Northern Corridor. Focus has shifted away from South China Sea.
-Police are using Acts covering sabotage, hijacking etc in their investigations including cargo manifest, personal problems including all ground crew, pilot's flight sim, pax background checks (some international police agencies have cleared all pax- no negative records on them). Section 130 (c) applied and data release classified.
-satellite and radar info has been requested from all countries concerned in possible flight path and those who have global coverage over suspected areas.
-Immediate financial assistance (not compensation) being given to families of pax
-Plane took off with plenty of fuel for original flight plus some extra for contingencies. There was no extra fuel (otherwise).
-Flight simulator has been taken by Police and is being examined by experts
-Primary military data (revealed to investigative partners when normally not done), with satellite data is the reason for shift of focus
-no hazardous substance in cargo manifest.
-new information received yesterday being investigated - will be verified and corroborated before being released
-cannot divulge military radar data from other sources
-minimum speed and max speed a/c can fly has been taken into account in determining the possible flight path corridors
(Factual summary of the full live press conference this morning from KL)
-investigation has entered a new phase with involvement of more countries along the North Corridor (11 countries making a total of 25 countries involved in SAR). Malaysian PM has spoken to the PMs/Presidents of some countries along the Northern Corridor. Focus has shifted away from South China Sea.
-Police are using Acts covering sabotage, hijacking etc in their investigations including cargo manifest, personal problems including all ground crew, pilot's flight sim, pax background checks (some international police agencies have cleared all pax- no negative records on them). Section 130 (c) applied and data release classified.
-satellite and radar info has been requested from all countries concerned in possible flight path and those who have global coverage over suspected areas.
-Immediate financial assistance (not compensation) being given to families of pax
-Plane took off with plenty of fuel for original flight plus some extra for contingencies. There was no extra fuel (otherwise).
-Flight simulator has been taken by Police and is being examined by experts
-Primary military data (revealed to investigative partners when normally not done), with satellite data is the reason for shift of focus
-no hazardous substance in cargo manifest.
-new information received yesterday being investigated - will be verified and corroborated before being released
-cannot divulge military radar data from other sources
-minimum speed and max speed a/c can fly has been taken into account in determining the possible flight path corridors
(Factual summary of the full live press conference this morning from KL)
Last edited by brika; 16th Mar 2014 at 10:11. Reason: highlighting and word correction
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I'm thinking about the final non standard radio transmission. As this happened after the ACARS was turned off I presume that someone has done an analysis of the transmission to see if it is either of the pilots voices. The opinion of some of the comments on this site is that it is an Americanism, is it a normal term of speech for Malay pilots?
An analysis of the voice would have been one of the first things done. Being based in this region many local flight crew and even cabin crew have "Americanism" or Western slang terms. This is a result of being around many expats and some are educated in the American and British Schools in these countries.
An analysis of the voice would have been one of the first things done. Being based in this region many local flight crew and even cabin crew have "Americanism" or Western slang terms. This is a result of being around many expats and some are educated in the American and British Schools in these countries.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by X-37
How can they be sure that communications weredeliberatelydisabled?
It could be that a chain of events cut the ACARS, transponder and VHF and that chain caused them to turn back but the crew were themselves overcome by the events.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golf-Mike-Mike
Exactly my post at 23:50 UTC last night that was deleted, so sadly yours and mine may now also be deleted. Just before the mods do that could someone with the 777 / electronics expertise please categorically confirm that the ACARS system and later the transponder / ADS-B systems can ONLY go offline by the "deliberate act of someone on board". The Malaysian authorities are so definite on this point they are categorically ruling out equipment failure / fire / etc.
========================
Yes guys, a spill of substantial water over the Aisle Stand, in the middle of the 2 pilots, would have generated many short circuits including the TCAS and all the radios and further leaking into the E&E bay would have done the rest. Including switching off all the 6 CRTs that helps the pilots for navigation.
it was night + smokes and fumes in the cockpit + no navigation display.
This scenario may be has more credit than a UFO or an asteroid impact....
Originally Posted by X-37
How can they be sure that communications weredeliberatelydisabled?
It could be that a chain of events cut the ACARS, transponder and VHF and that chain caused them to turn back but the crew were themselves overcome by the events.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golf-Mike-Mike
Exactly my post at 23:50 UTC last night that was deleted, so sadly yours and mine may now also be deleted. Just before the mods do that could someone with the 777 / electronics expertise please categorically confirm that the ACARS system and later the transponder / ADS-B systems can ONLY go offline by the "deliberate act of someone on board". The Malaysian authorities are so definite on this point they are categorically ruling out equipment failure / fire / etc.
========================
Yes guys, a spill of substantial water over the Aisle Stand, in the middle of the 2 pilots, would have generated many short circuits including the TCAS and all the radios and further leaking into the E&E bay would have done the rest. Including switching off all the 6 CRTs that helps the pilots for navigation.
it was night + smokes and fumes in the cockpit + no navigation display.
This scenario may be has more credit than a UFO or an asteroid impact....
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Cura
I think you are referring to the Oceanic Position Tracking Improvement & Monitoring (OPTIMI) project
Check the sesarju website for info......
Check the sesarju website for info......
The report in fact makes references to the OPTIMI project, but I have not looked further into the links.
awblain....I wonder if any knee-jerking legislators might consider having arbitrary numbers of security persons with much less education, training and judgement than the crew themselves installed in the jump seats to watch the crew and each other?
Whom themselves may consider a take over. aka the FedEx Engineer.
Whom themselves may consider a take over. aka the FedEx Engineer.
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Golf-Mike-Mike
Yes my second attempt too. Can't see how to quote.
Not electronics expert but I did fly the 777 for seven years. Maybe something as simple as dropping coffee over the centre consol caused system failure and worse. Will we ever know the truth?
Yes my second attempt too. Can't see how to quote.
Not electronics expert but I did fly the 777 for seven years. Maybe something as simple as dropping coffee over the centre consol caused system failure and worse. Will we ever know the truth?
me myself and fly...
John Sparks @c4sparks
I asked the Malay Min of Transport if #MH370 data comms system Was disabled before pilot said 'good night' to Malay ATC - he said yes ...
That would be the perfect time to do it as Malay ATC would think nothing of it as voice comms has been established after the failure.
There is nothing unusual in DATA transmission going off line, happens all the time, usually it comes back on its own or after a few resets.
John Sparks @c4sparks
I asked the Malay Min of Transport if #MH370 data comms system Was disabled before pilot said 'good night' to Malay ATC - he said yes ...
That would be the perfect time to do it as Malay ATC would think nothing of it as voice comms has been established after the failure.
There is nothing unusual in DATA transmission going off line, happens all the time, usually it comes back on its own or after a few resets.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
The routing may have been designed to skirt the presumed edge of some search radars.
The reduction of height to 295 may also have been planned to get below long range cover of the ground radars.
All you would need to plan a dark route is knowledge of the capabilities of the different radar systems and knowledge of their location.
Routing along an FIR boundary could be used to engender 'ownership' confusion between Indonesia and Malaysia etc.
All pretty easy stuff for a technically savvy person.
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Al Quaeda shoe bomb plot?
This changes a lot of the scenarios people seem to be dwelling on:
Malaysia Airline MH370: 9/11-style terror allegations resurface in case of lost plane - Telegraph
Would be consistent with the fact that both pilots seem to be very unlikely terrorist candidates:
MH370: profile of missing Malaysian Airline plane's pilots starts to emerge - Telegraph
Malaysia Airline MH370: 9/11-style terror allegations resurface in case of lost plane - Telegraph
Would be consistent with the fact that both pilots seem to be very unlikely terrorist candidates:
MH370: profile of missing Malaysian Airline plane's pilots starts to emerge - Telegraph
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Two things spring to mind.
ACARS had been disabled BEFORE the final voice transmission. So it seems to me that identification of the voice making the final transmission will greatly assist in steering the investigation towards the person(s) responsible. The hijacking had already commenced.
Secondly reports have suggested the aircraft was climbed to FL450. I can only think of one reason to do this. That would be to increase the cabin altitude. The implications of that should not be lost on anyone.
I haven't flown the triple for a few years either, but I vaguely recall there's an Eicas alert for ACARS? Transponder too I believe?
ACARS had been disabled BEFORE the final voice transmission. So it seems to me that identification of the voice making the final transmission will greatly assist in steering the investigation towards the person(s) responsible. The hijacking had already commenced.
Secondly reports have suggested the aircraft was climbed to FL450. I can only think of one reason to do this. That would be to increase the cabin altitude. The implications of that should not be lost on anyone.
I can't see how you would know that the ACARS or Transponder had failed.
Retired from the 777 for ten years now so memory not so good.
Retired from the 777 for ten years now so memory not so good.
Last edited by 4468; 16th Mar 2014 at 10:36.
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If this has been posted feel free to delete, a terror group said the other week there was a plan to hijack an aircraft.
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 expands after plane diverted by ?deliberate action?, amid hijack fears | News.com.au
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 expands after plane diverted by ?deliberate action?, amid hijack fears | News.com.au
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