Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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wow... Just stumbled upon something that I had completely missed until now
That is Vietnam’s deputy minister of transport, Pham Quy Tieu, and the quote was reported at least 4 days ago
(as can be seen here Vietnam suspends air search for missing Malaysian jet | NDTV.com )
So that means
A) Vietnam has the plane on radar turning around, and tried to tell Malaysia that day
B) Malaysia knew they had it on their radar at 2:40 in the Straights anyway
...yet still they let 14 countries waste 8 days in the Gulf looking for a plane that wasn't ever there.
Unbelievable
"We informed Malaysia on the day we lost contact with the flight that we noticed the flight turned back west but Malaysia did not respond,"
(as can be seen here Vietnam suspends air search for missing Malaysian jet | NDTV.com )
So that means
A) Vietnam has the plane on radar turning around, and tried to tell Malaysia that day
B) Malaysia knew they had it on their radar at 2:40 in the Straights anyway
...yet still they let 14 countries waste 8 days in the Gulf looking for a plane that wasn't ever there.
Unbelievable
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It might well be that the reason nobody was watching the Military radar that night is because nobody was assigned to watch the scope, the operator(s) may have been on standby in case they were needed. I will add another voice to a couple of previous posts - many people have an exaggerated view of military capabilities / readiness. This was on a sleepy Malaysian night shift in peacetime conditions, not West Germany at the height of the cold war or on any cocaine smuggling route. There may be valid reasons to criticize the Malaysian government but this is not one of them.
Another point I would like to mention is that the reason that the ACARS was turned off and the aircraft "soared" to a higher altitude appears to some of us (it has been alluded to here but I may be the first to come out and state it bluntly) as if the man at the controls wanted to prevent data transmission of the fact that that the cabin pressure had been vented to ambient outside air pressure. The increased altitude appears to have been to insure the least amount of resistance for the shortest time from the people in the back of the plane.
Another point I would like to mention is that the reason that the ACARS was turned off and the aircraft "soared" to a higher altitude appears to some of us (it has been alluded to here but I may be the first to come out and state it bluntly) as if the man at the controls wanted to prevent data transmission of the fact that that the cabin pressure had been vented to ambient outside air pressure. The increased altitude appears to have been to insure the least amount of resistance for the shortest time from the people in the back of the plane.
Southern Corridor
As per my last post PM Tony Abbott has just announced that 2 x AP3C's will be sent to search on the 40 deg line the Indian Ocean.
Given the B777 range ring on the 40 deg line I imagine that the P3 will be limited in its search time at the extremities of the range ring. Any P3 drivers able to comment. I would suggest an aircraft carrier is going to be the only option unless there can be some descent sat coverage.
If you want to make sure no one finds you this is the place.
Anyway good luck to no 10 / 11 SQDN's
Given the B777 range ring on the 40 deg line I imagine that the P3 will be limited in its search time at the extremities of the range ring. Any P3 drivers able to comment. I would suggest an aircraft carrier is going to be the only option unless there can be some descent sat coverage.
If you want to make sure no one finds you this is the place.
Anyway good luck to no 10 / 11 SQDN's
You will not be getting any report on the aircraft fuel plan or fuel uplift. Even if it were provided it wouldn’t make any difference. The fuel loaded for the route in question will be standard for the time of year taking into consideration a multitude of factors. The Captain may elect to stick on a few extra tonnes and if he did so that would be quite normal and acceptable in all the circumstances.
So far, pretty much all political/terror related scenarios end with: "But why has no-one come forward to claim responsibility?"
If there was foul play, why couldn't that have been the *intention*, i.e. making this event be a paradigm shift, just as Sept 11 was?
Prior to Sept 11, hijacks ended with landing & making demands. Which is what the Sept 11 hijackers indeed broadcast to the passengers and to ATC.* But they changed the paradigm, as we know, and those statements were active misinformation.
Why change the paradigm again? To sow the maximum amount of fear and uncertainty into commercial transportation -- make a modern first world jet appear to disappear into thin air, with no ability to find it. (Because whatever happened to it has happened somewhere *well away* from its last known position.) A crash is unsettling, but can be dealt with. A simple disappearance with nothing more -- no debris, no recorded crash, no demands, with everyone looking 1,000s of NM away -- would inflict maximum uncertainty. It already has inflicted a lot, but imagine how much more there would be if the pinging wasn't there, and especially if the pilot had evaded Malaysian radar?
That could be the aim itself. So a lack of any claim of responsibility may no longer be a pointer against foul play.
Remember, bin Laden's strike was symbolically at the three limbs of the USA - economic (4 planes + 2 towers); military (Pentagon); and political (intended target of UA93 was likely the Capitol). This could be a strike at one, the easiest to get to (economic).
* United 93, which had the only CVR to survive, recorded the pax being told "Here's the captain. I would like to tell you all to remain seated. We have a bomb aboard, and we are going back to the airport, and we have our demands. So, please remain quiet." On AA 11, Atta told ATC "We have some planes. Just stay quiet, and you'll be O.K. We are returning to the airport."
If there was foul play, why couldn't that have been the *intention*, i.e. making this event be a paradigm shift, just as Sept 11 was?
Prior to Sept 11, hijacks ended with landing & making demands. Which is what the Sept 11 hijackers indeed broadcast to the passengers and to ATC.* But they changed the paradigm, as we know, and those statements were active misinformation.
Why change the paradigm again? To sow the maximum amount of fear and uncertainty into commercial transportation -- make a modern first world jet appear to disappear into thin air, with no ability to find it. (Because whatever happened to it has happened somewhere *well away* from its last known position.) A crash is unsettling, but can be dealt with. A simple disappearance with nothing more -- no debris, no recorded crash, no demands, with everyone looking 1,000s of NM away -- would inflict maximum uncertainty. It already has inflicted a lot, but imagine how much more there would be if the pinging wasn't there, and especially if the pilot had evaded Malaysian radar?
That could be the aim itself. So a lack of any claim of responsibility may no longer be a pointer against foul play.
Remember, bin Laden's strike was symbolically at the three limbs of the USA - economic (4 planes + 2 towers); military (Pentagon); and political (intended target of UA93 was likely the Capitol). This could be a strike at one, the easiest to get to (economic).
* United 93, which had the only CVR to survive, recorded the pax being told "Here's the captain. I would like to tell you all to remain seated. We have a bomb aboard, and we are going back to the airport, and we have our demands. So, please remain quiet." On AA 11, Atta told ATC "We have some planes. Just stay quiet, and you'll be O.K. We are returning to the airport."
Given the B777 range ring on the 40 deg line I imagine that the P3 will be limited in its search time at the extremities of the range ring. Any P3 drivers able to comment. I would suggest an aircraft carrier is going to be the only option unless there can be some descent sat coverage.
http://goo.gl/maps/4cDSX
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If the aircraft was down south, it likely made it much further west than the 40° line, and that should only be the starting point.
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all data points aligned ?
Shadoko answered:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8379709
To my post:
To the psychological aspect:
- Maybe the initial plan was to hit the petronas towers.
- The above maneuvre is physicaly extremly challenging. Going "semi-ballistic" in a depressurized cabin on o2 only.
- After recovery you might see things differently and refrain from original plan=> erratic flightpath.
- You are now in a psychological challenging environment with harm done to every soul on board.
- There is no way to fix this situation, but you don't want to cause any more harm any longer.
- Program FMS to go above the Malaca Strait into the Indian Ocean an then set a last waypoint, the obvious one would be 90 degrees south.
- Now depressurize again, don't put your o2 mask and doze away.
The aircraft or what remains of it would be found south of where longitude ~95°E intersects with the southern branch of the "ping arc".
And then fly evading detection until sunrise: it will be along the south arc of the last ping, after flying for the last time. Retaliation after is friend jailed for 5 years?
Journey to the End of the Night - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Journey to the End of the Night - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
To my post:
One of the last ACARS Messages transmitted by AF447 concerned cabin pressure, IIRC external altitude becoming lower than cabin altitude.
It makes me sick thinking about it:
- Turn off ACARS
- Then depressurize
- Wait 12 minutes until cabin emergency O2 is used up
- Turn off transponder
- Zoom climb to what is possible, on topping out there will be less than 1g so it can be somewhat higher than what is in the spec
- now return, over land no cell phone calls will be made
It makes me sick thinking about it:
- Turn off ACARS
- Then depressurize
- Wait 12 minutes until cabin emergency O2 is used up
- Turn off transponder
- Zoom climb to what is possible, on topping out there will be less than 1g so it can be somewhat higher than what is in the spec
- now return, over land no cell phone calls will be made
- Maybe the initial plan was to hit the petronas towers.
- The above maneuvre is physicaly extremly challenging. Going "semi-ballistic" in a depressurized cabin on o2 only.
- After recovery you might see things differently and refrain from original plan=> erratic flightpath.
- You are now in a psychological challenging environment with harm done to every soul on board.
- There is no way to fix this situation, but you don't want to cause any more harm any longer.
- Program FMS to go above the Malaca Strait into the Indian Ocean an then set a last waypoint, the obvious one would be 90 degrees south.
- Now depressurize again, don't put your o2 mask and doze away.
The aircraft or what remains of it would be found south of where longitude ~95°E intersects with the southern branch of the "ping arc".
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I don't need to prove anything and there isn't enough factual data to prove anything at all in any case, including how long this aircraft stayed airborne, in which direction it went after last contact and how far into an event it was without the crew being aware, if at all.
Just because the acars and transponder went offline does not necessarily mean the crew must have known, although I'm tipping it wouldn't have been much later when all hell broke loose. I don't see any reason at all why this aircraft could not possibly be within observation range.
You can run with the turnaround theory and pinging satellites, but do we really know that, its equally plausible.
Just because the acars and transponder went offline does not necessarily mean the crew must have known, although I'm tipping it wouldn't have been much later when all hell broke loose. I don't see any reason at all why this aircraft could not possibly be within observation range.
You can run with the turnaround theory and pinging satellites, but do we really know that, its equally plausible.
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Look again at my map from earlier. Considering the southern option.
Diego Garcia is the dark patch mid-ocean between Thailand and Madagascar.
If the plane reached the red circle (where ping was) by 8:11am (after being near Phuket at 2:15am) then it was within the blue circle by then (time and speed limit).
Thus it was not heading for Diego Garcia, or Africa.
After perhaps rounding Sumatra and turning South, it was headed for Antarctica, due South, or just perhaps French Antarctic Islands, Heard Island or maybe even Perth, or inland Australia.
It is a pity that the Australian radar (white circle) was probably off for the weekend.
Diego Garcia is the dark patch mid-ocean between Thailand and Madagascar.
If the plane reached the red circle (where ping was) by 8:11am (after being near Phuket at 2:15am) then it was within the blue circle by then (time and speed limit).
Thus it was not heading for Diego Garcia, or Africa.
After perhaps rounding Sumatra and turning South, it was headed for Antarctica, due South, or just perhaps French Antarctic Islands, Heard Island or maybe even Perth, or inland Australia.
It is a pity that the Australian radar (white circle) was probably off for the weekend.
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givemewings:
"Would you say that would be a 'usual' practice? In my experience I've had engineers 'ride along only twice in more than 6 years- once was an overwater sector and an insurer requirement to prevent unsched overnight in an unfavorable port... the other was an empty ferry sector."
I haven't seen it done in a US airline, but I've seen it elsewhere. For instance, I was on a 737 flight in Argentina, and there was the technician, in airline coveralls, in view of passengers, with a panel open and screwdriver out. The aircraft would make sudden maneuvers, each time he'd stick the screwdriver into the panel. Everyone would gasp. Of course, it was just coincidence. The sudden maneuvers were just the pilot thinking he was still in his Mirage fighter from his Falkland Island War days.
"Would you say that would be a 'usual' practice? In my experience I've had engineers 'ride along only twice in more than 6 years- once was an overwater sector and an insurer requirement to prevent unsched overnight in an unfavorable port... the other was an empty ferry sector."
I haven't seen it done in a US airline, but I've seen it elsewhere. For instance, I was on a 737 flight in Argentina, and there was the technician, in airline coveralls, in view of passengers, with a panel open and screwdriver out. The aircraft would make sudden maneuvers, each time he'd stick the screwdriver into the panel. Everyone would gasp. Of course, it was just coincidence. The sudden maneuvers were just the pilot thinking he was still in his Mirage fighter from his Falkland Island War days.
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OTHR - Australian and Diego Garcia JORN Range Revisited
Post #4280 refers to Communicator's post #4062, but quotes someone else's contribution. (See details below.)
In substance, everyone seems to be on the same page - JORN's public statements no doubt understate the system's actual capabilities. The Soviet term dezinformaciya seems a tad harsh to characterize strategic modesty by a trusted and trustworthy ally.
U.S. facilities on Diego Garcia, to say nothing of airborne and space based assets are probably much more powerful.
The gist of Communicator's earlier #4062 is that JORN in Australia publicly admits to 1,000 - 3,000 km for their OTHR system, implying that actual range may be rather wider.
===============
In substance, everyone seems to be on the same page - JORN's public statements no doubt understate the system's actual capabilities. The Soviet term dezinformaciya seems a tad harsh to characterize strategic modesty by a trusted and trustworthy ally.
U.S. facilities on Diego Garcia, to say nothing of airborne and space based assets are probably much more powerful.
The gist of Communicator's earlier #4062 is that JORN in Australia publicly admits to 1,000 - 3,000 km for their OTHR system, implying that actual range may be rather wider.
===============
I'd raise an eyebrow at the 'dezinformaciya' repeated in Communicators' post #4062, thus:
"I can well understand the Australians being very cagy about releasing any data analysis which might give clues and cues regarding the extent and limits of their OTHR system, but I am wholly confident it now exceeds by some margin what is widely reported in the public domain.
...
"I can well understand the Australians being very cagy about releasing any data analysis which might give clues and cues regarding the extent and limits of their OTHR system, but I am wholly confident it now exceeds by some margin what is widely reported in the public domain.
...
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Sunday is a normal work day for them.
weekend is Friday and Sat.
weekend is Friday and Sat.
Subang / KLIA are in an unaffected state / Territory.
Workweek and weekend - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Folks,
Based on answers to a "Question without Notice" in the Australian Commonwealth Parliament some time in 2013 ( as I recall) Jindalee does not work H24, so it would be very lucky if its restricted operations hours coincided with this occurrence.
Jindalee would certainly have been able to track the target well into the Indian Ocean, and well towards the surface, if it was in range.
Tootle pip!!
Based on answers to a "Question without Notice" in the Australian Commonwealth Parliament some time in 2013 ( as I recall) Jindalee does not work H24, so it would be very lucky if its restricted operations hours coincided with this occurrence.
Jindalee would certainly have been able to track the target well into the Indian Ocean, and well towards the surface, if it was in range.
Tootle pip!!
