Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
Makay the oil rig observer, remember him.
Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.
He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.
I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.
He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.
I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
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The turn shortly before the transponders were powered down may have been the result of an FA's advice to the cockpit that men had descended into the E&E bay. The pilots, noting a loss of comms, may have decided that their only option was to turn back and await further developments. Navigation and flight control could've then become increasingly difficult as systems were rendered inert.
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I've seen no report or questions re the initial fuel load. Although it may be common to carry more than planned fuel, it would give some idea of intentions if it was significantly different from plan or from the crews normal practice
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Visual sighting of aircraft over long distances
When I was a spotter and listened to VHF radio from my home in Glasgow, elevation 100' or so I could see contrails over Belfast, a distance of approx 100 nautical miles. The trails were very low to the horizon (<10°) but very definitely over Belfast since there was no traffic over Prestwick. This was late daylight, winter, high pressure so cloudless and highlighted by a low sun.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen.
Agreed and repeated, yet again - the report on fuel will not be forthcoming for a variety of reasons. However, if it did and the fuel load was above what was reasonable for the w/x, then it would add some weight to possible intentionals. Just another potential clue, not proof.
Lawyers are now involved, as is big money and this frames many decisions. Some of the logic needs to be viewed from their position and not Mr Ockham's.
Lawyers are now involved, as is big money and this frames many decisions. Some of the logic needs to be viewed from their position and not Mr Ockham's.
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Xeptu says
Makay mapped out his GPS location for us
(as seen here Oil rig worker saw Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 go down: report - National | Globalnews.ca )
Go ahead, you remind us how it is possible he saw the crash from his location - but remember, physics still exist in this, the real world, despite their inconvenience for you in this calculation
Makay likely did see something. What that was, who the heck knows - it sure as heck wasnt the plane though. That we know because A) Physics B) the plane went the other way anyway(!!!)
...so my question to you becomes, despite it being physically impossible for him to see the plane, are we to just make believe the plane is there as to not hurt his feelings when he returns from the rig?
Makay the oil rig observer, remember him.
Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.
He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.
I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.
He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.
I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
(as seen here Oil rig worker saw Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 go down: report - National | Globalnews.ca )
Go ahead, you remind us how it is possible he saw the crash from his location - but remember, physics still exist in this, the real world, despite their inconvenience for you in this calculation
Makay likely did see something. What that was, who the heck knows - it sure as heck wasnt the plane though. That we know because A) Physics B) the plane went the other way anyway(!!!)
...so my question to you becomes, despite it being physically impossible for him to see the plane, are we to just make believe the plane is there as to not hurt his feelings when he returns from the rig?
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I will say that in my 20 years in this industry that this is the strangest incident I think I've come across 8 days after the fact. One can only wonder that if the correct IFER/SAR procedures had been followed from the outset that this whole episode may have been in a totally different place right now. It just goes to prove that despite ICAO 'recommendations' you still need to be careful operating in 3rd world FIRs..
A bit unfair. He's done a good report as best he can. It's just that lots of phenomena occur at night over the sea that are not easily explain. A common one is the bright lights from squid boats that reflect off clouds or are refracted by inversions. Space debris is falling frequently also. Oil fires are often briefly refracted. You see this over the middle East with the right cloud conditions.
We cannot entirely rule his observation out; it's just improbably MH370.
We cannot entirely rule his observation out; it's just improbably MH370.
Occam
His ‘razor’ principle, which is in widespread use today in arriving at solutions to scientific quandaries, involves 'paring away’ (with the razor) the least significant information to leave a core of significant facts with which to arrive at the most likely explanation. This will not always be the correct answer, but on the balance of probability it will in more cases than not.
It states that among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis with the fewest assumptions should be selected.
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OldPilot55 said
He was 370 miles away
When I was a spotter and listened to VHF radio from my home in Glasgow, elevation 100' or so I could see contrails over Belfast, a distance of approx 100 nautical miles. The trails were very low to the horizon (<10°) but very definitely over Belfast since there was no traffic over Prestwick. This was late daylight, winter, high pressure so cloudless and highlighted by a low sun.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen.
So my point is the Kiwi oil worker could have seen at night a bright light or fire over a considerable distance, as he described. Whether that was the missing 777 remains to be seen.
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You'd be surprised...
JugofPropwash said: (apropos Shadow post 16th Mar 2014 05:25 "The Elephant outside the Room")
What if it was a single MAS Engineer with credentials? There was one aboard. I believe the hatch in the fwd galley area isn't visibly apparent to pax. Can't imagine an F/A not being duped in this scenario (but may well check with the flight-deck after consulting the chief purser). The hatch has been plotted by then. Terrorists can look just like any other pax until they declare their hand.
You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"???
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A scathing review of the MH 370 search situation from the New York Times wire:
Series of errors by Malaysia mounts, complicating the task of finding flight MH370 - The Times of India
It seems that the earlier speculation here about the 'A' team being off duty on the weekend at the military radar sites was on target.
Series of errors by Malaysia mounts, complicating the task of finding flight MH370
Michael Forsythe & KEITH BRADSHER,NYT News Service | Mar 16, 2014, 11.12 AM IST
SEPANG(Malaysia): The radar blip that was Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 did a wide U-turn over the Gulf of Thailand and then began moving inexorably past at least three military radar arrays as it traversed northern Malaysia, even flying high over one of the country's biggest cities before heading out over the Strait of Malacca.
Yet inside a Malaysian Air Force control room on the country's west coast, where American-made F-18s and F-5 fighters stood at a high level of readiness for emergencies exactly like the one unfolding in the early morning of March 8, a four-person air defense radar crew did nothing about the unauthorized flight. "The watch team never noticed the blip," said a person with detailed knowledge of the investigation into Flight 370. "It was as though the airspace was his."
It was not the first and certainly not the last in a long series of errors by the Malaysian government that has made the geographically vast and technologically complex task of finding the $50 million Malaysia Airlines jet far more difficult.
A week after the plane disappeared, the trail is even colder as the search now sprawls from the snowy peaks of the Himalayas to the empty expanses of the southern Indian Ocean. Nobody knows yet whether the delays cost the lives of any of the 239 people who boarded the flight to Beijing at Kuala Lumpur's ultramodern airport here. But the mistakes have accumulated at a remarkable pace...
Michael Forsythe & KEITH BRADSHER,NYT News Service | Mar 16, 2014, 11.12 AM IST
SEPANG(Malaysia): The radar blip that was Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 did a wide U-turn over the Gulf of Thailand and then began moving inexorably past at least three military radar arrays as it traversed northern Malaysia, even flying high over one of the country's biggest cities before heading out over the Strait of Malacca.
Yet inside a Malaysian Air Force control room on the country's west coast, where American-made F-18s and F-5 fighters stood at a high level of readiness for emergencies exactly like the one unfolding in the early morning of March 8, a four-person air defense radar crew did nothing about the unauthorized flight. "The watch team never noticed the blip," said a person with detailed knowledge of the investigation into Flight 370. "It was as though the airspace was his."
It was not the first and certainly not the last in a long series of errors by the Malaysian government that has made the geographically vast and technologically complex task of finding the $50 million Malaysia Airlines jet far more difficult.
A week after the plane disappeared, the trail is even colder as the search now sprawls from the snowy peaks of the Himalayas to the empty expanses of the southern Indian Ocean. Nobody knows yet whether the delays cost the lives of any of the 239 people who boarded the flight to Beijing at Kuala Lumpur's ultramodern airport here. But the mistakes have accumulated at a remarkable pace...
It seems that the earlier speculation here about the 'A' team being off duty on the weekend at the military radar sites was on target.
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jugofpropwash: "You really believe that in this post 9-11 world, 200+ passengers are going to calmly sit there and allow a couple hijacker/terrorists access to the area, especially when there's a FA standing there screaming "Stop them!"??? "
A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed. Maybe such a mechanic was "in on it", or maybe his screwdriver slipped, frying some of the electronics, starting a series of events that led to the disappearance of the 777.
A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed. Maybe such a mechanic was "in on it", or maybe his screwdriver slipped, frying some of the electronics, starting a series of events that led to the disappearance of the 777.
A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed.
Damn straight if someone came up to me saying they wanted in to the E&E bay during flight I'd be calling the captain first.
If they forced their way in I'd be doing a lot more than standing there to watch!
Sadly I'd guess this points to the CC being unable, or as has been put forward, 'someone' in the airline telling them that it was kosher... don't think that is as likely as the first one though...
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You will not be getting any report on the aircraft fuel plan or fuel uplift. Even if it were provided it wouldn’t make any difference. The fuel loaded for the route in question will be standard for the time of year taking into consideration a multitude of factors. The Captain may elect to stick on a few extra tonnes and if he did so that would be quite normal and acceptable in all the circumstances.
It's a very obvious question to an experienced operator but it hasn't been addressed in public. Someone's flight plan was different to MAS, whose plan was it?
Last edited by knackeredII; 16th Mar 2014 at 06:59. Reason: Insert quote
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Makay the oil rig observer, remember him.
Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.
He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.
I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
Went to a lot of trouble to get his message out more than once, he gave a detailed observation, he is trained in the use of life rafts and signalling equipment, he knows what a flare looks like.
He saw something significant falling from the sky. His observation was not in any search area at the time, any possible debris field is moving away from the search areas.
I can't imagine what he will be feeling when his tour is over and he gets back to the mainland to discover the world thinks, "he couldn't have or he made the whole thing up"
However, why was MacKay's email dismissed so quickly is a point.
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A mechanic could have been riding along, troubleshooting something in the E&E bay. Some airlines allow this. It can make the passengers nervous, but as long as he has on airline coveralls, they wouldn't be very alarmed.
CNN interview his father at KLIA.