Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Harry O]

Why no military radar at night? Too expensive was the reply.

Nothing much happens they said, so the radar is switched off

Yahoo News UK & Ireland - Latest World News & UK News Headlines

[lakedude]

I'd like to help y'all understand the arcs because I think there is a misunderstanding of what they represent. IMHO they are not possible flight paths.

The arcs line up exactly with the range information from one single satellite, not two. This indicates that they are primarily getting their information from only one satellite (the only one in range).

Funny thing about these satellites (assuming the pic a few pages back is correct) is that they are all in a line so even if three or more were in range no "triangulation" would be possible because the satellites are not arranged in a triangle. GPS satellites are not arranged in a straight line for this exact reason.

All the arcs indicate is that at a few specific times the plane was roughly at a few points (or possibly only one point) along the arc, not that the plane flew exactly along the arc.

One satellite is going to give you a circle (in 2 dimensions, really a sphere but we can safely assume the plane is not in space or anywhere out of flight range to the west). Two satellites would give you duplicate points of intersection north and south. It would take a 3rd satellite that was not in line with the first 2 to triangulate and determine which of the north or south points was the correct one.

Since we are being shown arcs of a circle the information is only coming from one satellite.

[ChrisJ800]

Id like to know answers to OBD's 2 questions on fuel quantity at push back and cargo manifest.

In addition if a pilot is wearing a flight deck oxygen mask would that make his RT voice sound mumbled or muffled? And what is the approx duration of the flight deck 02 supply? Are we talking a few minutes or longer?

[D.S.]

Communicator said

The primary radar track was only connected with MH370 when the relevance of Satcom ping information was appreciated some days later.

That is not correct. The Malaysia Government instantly recognized it as the plane, hence "last contact was 2:40" and "evidence to suggest the plane turned around" being relayed to the media on day 1 (remember, the initial thought by absolutely everyone everywhere was the plane was lost after 2 hours, not 1)

Only later, for God only knows what reason, did they start saying there must have been a catastrophic event taking place between 1:20-1:30 at the last known location - that despite their knowing the plane made verbal communication twice in that time frame, their hard evidence said it took a turn and eye witness accounts said it took a turn

[mm43]

@Communicator,

It may be worth the to conduct a full-fledged trial to confirm assumptions about signal strength etc. given the actual type of aircraft, antenna, flight attitude, etc.

The Inmarsat aperture angles have been determined by reference to the node establishment 'pings' tx/rx timings, meaning that the accuracy of the arcs shown is reasonable, though could be subject to some small errors associated with the internal pass-through time of the aircraft SatCom equipment.

EDIT: I made the following comment in Post #3819 over 12 hours ago;

That timing will produce a position line (in this case a curved one) and the originating signal will be somewhere along that line.

[dsc810]

Well, I would imagine that there is no way that information on the fuel and the cargo is going to be released to the public.
So while many would like it - they ain't going to get it.

[Speed of Sound]

Cargo

Can we stop all these nonsense theories about cargo theft?

If anyone had enough advance knowledge of the cargo and the flight it was carried on to plan to hijack the plane, they would have saved themselves a hell of a lot of money, risk and trouble by hijacking the truck that took it to or from the airport.

The only part the cargo has to play in the solving of this mystery is if it was in some way responsible for causing an explosion, fire or other incident in flight.

Oh and on the subject of the 'roger that' reply, do we know that the pilot making that comment was speaking English? If he was talking to Malaysian ATC he may have been speaking Malay and the above may simply be a poor translation into English.

[MikeBanahan]

HF / VHF comms

What has not been mentioned by the previous posters suggesting HF is that nowadays huge chunks of HF spectrum can be recorded using SDR and played back at leisure, with particular attention to transmissions sticking out as unusual. Likewise VHF, if anyone is recording it in that way.

This is interesting because intelligence networks like GCHQ do something along these lines and as the aircraft was equipped with something like Rockwell Collins HF 400W transceivers which can work any frequency between 2 and 30Mhz then it is possible those on the cockpit had capability of communicating on preassigned frequencies with a range of 1000s of miles.

The key things here are 'if it stands out' and 'if it was heard'. Short HF transmissions in the middle of an Amateur Radio or Maritime frequency block are, I suggest, highly unlikely to draw attention to themselves unless there is something spectacularly unusual about them, even assuming that the signal is received loud and clear at a monitoring station. And even if someone spotted them immediately and identified the transmissions as unusual, unless the messages contained clear intent and identifiable place names, there is going to be very little that can be done about it. Something like "Alfa this is Bravo, all according to plan, ETA position Charlie four hours" isn't going to give much away unless you can recognise the speaker's voice or instantly triangulate it (good luck with that) to a location of high interest.

The radio bands are cluttered with all manner of transmissions from any number of sources, most of which are going to be unidentifiable unless they choose to identify themselves. Ships, aircraft, expeditions, taxis, radio hams, smugglers, take your pick ...

[RifRaf3]

Full face Oxy masks usually are clear but a bit hollow and nasal in tone, not muffled. In a hijack situation the interloper is listening in and that should involve a non standard speaker or mic set up that could muffle things somewhat.

I agree with D.S.'s critique of the Ramjet555 theory.

The pilots are reasonable suspects, no matter how harsh, just as when someone is murdered in a home the spouse is normally on the suspect list.

[luoto]

The end of this article intimates that India's radar might not a always be switched on (!) and thus the aircraft might have been missed. Hunt for MH370 nears Indian coast | The Indian Express

[JanetFlight]

Based on the new "~8 hours fuel time" quote by Malaysia auth, and following that supposed Southern Arc, it was within the "range" to reach outskirts of Antarctica, just asking?
Ok, i assume the most proper answer would be "C'mon, why the Hell this frozen Land???", but just asking...

[justawanab]

If anyone had enough advance knowledge of the cargo and the flight it was carried on to plan to hijack the plane, they would have saved themselves a hell of a lot of money, risk and trouble by hijacking the truck that took it to or from the airport.

Anyone who was capable of organising the heist of a 777 in order to run off with its cargo would probably be able to make darned sure they had the right contacts in place to ensure it went on the right aircraft at the right time.

The problem with hijacking the truck on the way to the airport is that you would then still have to get it out of the country. That problem is eliminated if it's already 'flown', as it were.

[techgeek]

GCharlie

Thanks for clarifying. If there are more frequent "pings" then a/c location should be more precisely fixed than being publicly stated.

Also, as lakedude pointed out earlier, I think many are misinterpreting the arcs shown on a map as a flight path (like flying a DME arc). These are plots of possible positions of the a/c at a given point in time. The aircraft can be at one and only one point along the arc. The arc defines the possible points at a given time that a "ping" was received.

[JPK]

Just some minor points

I have been lurking here, but have not been able to read everything. just some points:

1. Pilot playing pilot at home: It was said on various web sites posting information on the pilot that he was involved in simulator training with his company. It would therefore make sense to have such equipment at home. This does not have to have a sinister background.

2. As to the WHY: If this was a suicide by a crew member, it would be most logical to hide the flight trail and divert the plane to the South corridor. Previous suicides were concluded as such because the plane was found. Ditching it where the ocean is very deep and hiding its trail would therefore be a very logical, rational thing to do. Plus, waiting for it to fall out of the sky would ensure that nothing unusual is recorded should the black boxes ever be found and readable.

3. IF it was not a "simple" suicide mission, it would have to be a very organized hijacking. The last terror attack by Uyghurs was a very messy knife attack. Nothing like MH370, which to me looks very cold and methodical. Even al Qaida is currently focusing on more simple, bloody attacks. To me, this looks more like special ops. It would appear to me there are not many countries with reason (still unknown to me) and capability and even fewer freelancers. But then, I am only a scientist trained to be very rational and logical.

I also have some points that I find confusing.

Were the reports that there was radio contact with MH370 by another airliner not disputed later? It seems this is now taken as a given.

Why is the WH involved in press conferences? I missed the initial reports on that. I cannot remember they got into the game during the Air France incident. By contrast, China is comparably quiet given that most passengers are theirs.

Would voluntary decompression of the plane generate a noise that could be heard by witnesses on the ground?

If the plane indeed changed flight levels dramatically in the beginning of th editor, would RR not have gotten the data? It seems they did get routine reports by the plane on the way up. Should a rapid climb up not generate a report?

Sorry, if what I raised is trivial. I have no flight experience other than as an occasional passenger.

[bono]

Australian Radar Did Not Capture MH370

Mark Dodd, a spokesman for the Australian Defense Ministry, said he hadn’t heard of any trace of the aircraft being picked up by his nation. Australia’s network includes a long-range radar system capable of detecting air targets as small as the BAE Systems Hawk, a single-engine, two-seater jet.
A base station in Laverton, Western Australia state, has a range of about 3,000 kilometers covering most of the ocean south of Java and west from Perth, he said.
Ocean Off Perth Called Diverted Malaysian Plane's Most Likely Last Position - Bloomberg

Where now? Looks like it headed off further west between Australia and Madagascar well outside the range of Australian radar. Looks like someone was really really trying to get lost.

[xyze]

Speed of sound, you may be right about it being easier to rob the truck but if it was 4300kg of gold you were trying to pinch (see earlier posts for derivation of this figure) how would you move it? As bizarre as it seems, taking the plane is logistically easier, and, as may have been proven, more likely to succeed.

Not saying this is what has happened, but until the cargo manifest is released this option is on the table.

[KKN_]

Still not put to rest ...

There is one extremely important aspect that is never mentioned on really anyones timeline. That is

0107 - ACARS disconnected
0121 - Transponder switched off
0122 - "Alright, Good night"
shortly after 0130 - Japan Flight makes radio contact with plane
Between 0130-0145 - multiple eyewitness reports from Malaysia/Thailand border areas (Businessman, Bus Driver, 'Villagers', etc)

Well, it is rarely mentioned because it likely never happened that way. It comes from one early claim by the New Strait Times that has been picked up in the usual rash by other outlets (XYZ have learned) who later did not find it interesting anymore.

A pilot is quoted to have speaken anonymously, fine. But then that writing goes on to say the source was on a T7 (how pertinent), captain, bound for Narita, 30' ahead, and knew the MH370 crew by first name (and voice) ... Not very smart for an 'anonymous' pilot, or a real journalist, for that matter. The text just screams 'I'm credible'.

Guess the anonymity lies in the non-existence of this source.

[ExSp33db1rd]

..........the CVR will be useless as it only records two hours.

Why useless, it should give a clue as to what happened at the start of the drama, which will be something at least ?

[Richard W]

All the arcs indicate is that at a few specific times the plane was roughly at a few points along the arc, not that the plane flew exactly along the arc.

Not even that. The arcs represents the possible positions of the aircraft at the time of the last ping. This seems to be mostly based on the measured distance of the plane from the satellite and the limits on the altitude of the aircraft. This ought to yield a full circle. Consideration of satellite coverage eliminates parts of the circle, and other parts have been eliminated by consideration of the range and possible speed of the aircraft.

[raindog308]

..........the CVR will be useless as it only records two hours.

Why useless, it should give a clue as to what happened at the start of the drama, which will be something at least ?

It's a loop - you always have the last two hours.