Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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Quote:
"The more one sees , and the more one reads, especially regarding the route being flown and the timing of dropping off of all comms, the more this looks like a very carefully planned and executed operation. The choice of when to go "missing" and then large changes of heading to throw off any searchers ( radar or otherwise ) .....
I am actually very eager to find out if this is a very carefully planned and executed operation, I am kind of hoping it is and all the passengers and crews are still being held hostage somewhere, all alive! But oh well, if this is actually the case, this hijack would be one hell of a job"
Let's assume its a hijack.
To control and subdue 200+ souls you need more than 1 pilot flying.
Just in the air alone you'd need at least 6 heavily armed hijackers just in the cabin. In light of 9/11 probably more.
I just don't see that many suspicious sleepers in the passenger list.
To me it looks like an individual going postal. But if that is the case why the precise flight path to destination unknown.
Someone mentioned significant USA military footprint nearby??
"The more one sees , and the more one reads, especially regarding the route being flown and the timing of dropping off of all comms, the more this looks like a very carefully planned and executed operation. The choice of when to go "missing" and then large changes of heading to throw off any searchers ( radar or otherwise ) .....
I am actually very eager to find out if this is a very carefully planned and executed operation, I am kind of hoping it is and all the passengers and crews are still being held hostage somewhere, all alive! But oh well, if this is actually the case, this hijack would be one hell of a job"
Let's assume its a hijack.
To control and subdue 200+ souls you need more than 1 pilot flying.
Just in the air alone you'd need at least 6 heavily armed hijackers just in the cabin. In light of 9/11 probably more.
I just don't see that many suspicious sleepers in the passenger list.
To me it looks like an individual going postal. But if that is the case why the precise flight path to destination unknown.
Someone mentioned significant USA military footprint nearby??
Steve6443 don't subscribe to the theory of someone else hijacking the plane by overpowering the crew.
Agree, the pilots could have got a call out or just held open the mic. Also they would ave to be pretty quick to disable all the comms, especially the SAT phones to stop anyone in the cabin making a call on the seat telephone.
They would also have to be knowledgeable of the DATA comms system and disable the ADS CPDLC SAT HF and VHF data link.
The pilots could do this in a matter of seconds, also best to switch off the ADS CPDLC and transponder when transiting from one sector to another. This would not arouse any immediate suspicion as one sector would think the other was still in 'control'.
It would take several minutes for the controllers to be aware something was amiss and by that time the plane would be well out of the area and so difficult to spot on primary radar. It would also take time to alert an operator of a primary radar set (military), that the aircraft was lost.
Agree, the pilots could have got a call out or just held open the mic. Also they would ave to be pretty quick to disable all the comms, especially the SAT phones to stop anyone in the cabin making a call on the seat telephone.
They would also have to be knowledgeable of the DATA comms system and disable the ADS CPDLC SAT HF and VHF data link.
The pilots could do this in a matter of seconds, also best to switch off the ADS CPDLC and transponder when transiting from one sector to another. This would not arouse any immediate suspicion as one sector would think the other was still in 'control'.
It would take several minutes for the controllers to be aware something was amiss and by that time the plane would be well out of the area and so difficult to spot on primary radar. It would also take time to alert an operator of a primary radar set (military), that the aircraft was lost.
Where would it have landed?
Where would MH370 have been headed, if the latest confirmed or unconfirmed rumors hold any real information? The rumors point to the region of the andaman islands group.
What place could it land there?
I would put my bet on great coco island, i posted a reference few posts earlier, here is a better reference.
Wikimapia - Let's describe the whole world!)
1.400 meters could be enough after fuel has been used? That would explain the flighttime to use up the fuel as much as possible. By an able and trained crew i think so. Could it land unobserved? Nobody was looking there from the orbit, when the search started to concentrate to the east of Malaysia. It is a remote place, only around a thousand people there on the whole island. The airport seems to be off limits due to military presence. Could it have been refueld there? There is probably fuel available or could be made available. Could it take off again? I dont know, what do the experts say after removing all load with some fuel to get to its next destination, be it another landing place or an eternal wet grave?
But what would be the motivation for such an act? To answer that, we would have to be willing to discuss the "chinese question", they are the housekeepers on this airport. Do they have motive, ability and will to commence such a deed? What can they gain?
Think about their part in the search until now, could the satellite images have been a diversion, when the focus of the search changed suddenly to the west of malaysia?
This is my third post on this thread and it is highly speculative and probably political sensitive. I´m well aware that this post might disapear in short time by the mods- no pun intended, you guys do a great job here-, but it is worth a try.
What place could it land there?
I would put my bet on great coco island, i posted a reference few posts earlier, here is a better reference.
Wikimapia - Let's describe the whole world!)
1.400 meters could be enough after fuel has been used? That would explain the flighttime to use up the fuel as much as possible. By an able and trained crew i think so. Could it land unobserved? Nobody was looking there from the orbit, when the search started to concentrate to the east of Malaysia. It is a remote place, only around a thousand people there on the whole island. The airport seems to be off limits due to military presence. Could it have been refueld there? There is probably fuel available or could be made available. Could it take off again? I dont know, what do the experts say after removing all load with some fuel to get to its next destination, be it another landing place or an eternal wet grave?
But what would be the motivation for such an act? To answer that, we would have to be willing to discuss the "chinese question", they are the housekeepers on this airport. Do they have motive, ability and will to commence such a deed? What can they gain?
Think about their part in the search until now, could the satellite images have been a diversion, when the focus of the search changed suddenly to the west of malaysia?
This is my third post on this thread and it is highly speculative and probably political sensitive. I´m well aware that this post might disapear in short time by the mods- no pun intended, you guys do a great job here-, but it is worth a try.
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mrbigbird, if the hijacker(s) gained access to the cockpit, the number of passengers in the cabin is totally irrelevant, so even a lone hijacker could carry out the takeover (although two to four would be more likely).
The doors between cockpit and cabin fitted to all wide body (and most narrow body) airliners after 2001 make it impossible for the pax to gain access to the cockpit - and, given the hour of the day that these events took place, it's quite possible that no one in the cabin, perhaps not even the First Class cabin crew, would even be aware that anything was amiss for quite some time - until just before the aircraft landed or ditched.
The doors between cockpit and cabin fitted to all wide body (and most narrow body) airliners after 2001 make it impossible for the pax to gain access to the cockpit - and, given the hour of the day that these events took place, it's quite possible that no one in the cabin, perhaps not even the First Class cabin crew, would even be aware that anything was amiss for quite some time - until just before the aircraft landed or ditched.
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Mention has been made that although the flight was not full (with 50 or more unoccupied seats) there were passengers who flew standby. The reason given for this in this thread was that cargo uplift may have limited passenger capacity.
Question - how often does routine cargo on a passenger flight displace this much passenger uplift capacity?
If it was revealed that the cargo included a heavy valuable substance weighing as much as 50 passengers and their baggage, how many reading this thread would change their mind as to likely cause?
Question - how often does routine cargo on a passenger flight displace this much passenger uplift capacity?
If it was revealed that the cargo included a heavy valuable substance weighing as much as 50 passengers and their baggage, how many reading this thread would change their mind as to likely cause?
About the passengers: it's the Midnight to Dawn flight to Beijing. Guessing most passengers intended to sleep the flight away.
About Malaysian Air Force scrambling fighters (response to poster ETOPS):
Not trying to give the Malaysians the needle here, but why would one assume they are on alert 30 or alert 15 at midnight? I have no insight into what "DEFCON" condition Malaysia maintains, but they don't have a large Air Force, and it's the late shift. The flight profile as described, heading west, may very well NOT match a given threat profile they use to scramble fighters.
My KISS principle applied to that is that it isn't a surprise that nobody launched an alert fighter section.
About Malaysian Air Force scrambling fighters (response to poster ETOPS):
Not trying to give the Malaysians the needle here, but why would one assume they are on alert 30 or alert 15 at midnight? I have no insight into what "DEFCON" condition Malaysia maintains, but they don't have a large Air Force, and it's the late shift. The flight profile as described, heading west, may very well NOT match a given threat profile they use to scramble fighters.
My KISS principle applied to that is that it isn't a surprise that nobody launched an alert fighter section.
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Reported by Singapore Today on Twitter
"This is latest and most accurate flight path and the reason why the search is now where it is"
https://twitter.com/sgify
Looking at this track I think is beggars belief that the Malaysian military radar was unable to see this aircraft. If not in real time on the night then surely on review of the tapes.
And anyone who looks at these very precise changes of headings at recognised way points can only come to the one conclusion that the aircraft was not critically damaged and was under the command of a professionally trained pilot.
So I would suggest the leaders of almost all countries involved have known for many days that we are not dealing with a disaster caused by either mechanical or Structual defect.
This is something else entirely. Something I need not put into words.
We have been told specifically, almost from day one, in briefings that there are some things the Malaysians can tell us. And some things they can't.
It seems clear to me that this is what they were talking about. Or rather refusing to talk about.
"This is latest and most accurate flight path and the reason why the search is now where it is"
https://twitter.com/sgify
Looking at this track I think is beggars belief that the Malaysian military radar was unable to see this aircraft. If not in real time on the night then surely on review of the tapes.
And anyone who looks at these very precise changes of headings at recognised way points can only come to the one conclusion that the aircraft was not critically damaged and was under the command of a professionally trained pilot.
So I would suggest the leaders of almost all countries involved have known for many days that we are not dealing with a disaster caused by either mechanical or Structual defect.
This is something else entirely. Something I need not put into words.
We have been told specifically, almost from day one, in briefings that there are some things the Malaysians can tell us. And some things they can't.
It seems clear to me that this is what they were talking about. Or rather refusing to talk about.
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Would someone have any idea that at its last known position ie Igari .....How much fuel did the aircraft have since it was fueled to fly to Beijing with reserves ??
The only ones to know for sure are those in possession of the ground copy of the loadsheet. That would show minimum required fuel plus any extra.
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Info
If the plane has crashed, could passengers have been saved if all the information had been made available to all resources from day 1?
Should there not be a central authority that oversees searches? I find it bad that Boeing would be prohibited from officially announcing anything because they are required to pass that information on to the country overseeing the current state of affairs.
Wherever the plane is found will suddenly be the overseeing country of the case. Just sounds like too much red tape when there is an emergency.
Should there not be a central authority that oversees searches? I find it bad that Boeing would be prohibited from officially announcing anything because they are required to pass that information on to the country overseeing the current state of affairs.
Wherever the plane is found will suddenly be the overseeing country of the case. Just sounds like too much red tape when there is an emergency.
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Has it been confirmed the 'pings' are definitely from MH370?
Or from another aircraft sneaking through for legitimite or nefarious reasons?
That would explain if there was 'strategic planning' along the 'flightpath', if it was a completely different aircraft en route elsewhere.
How much information is contained in these 'Hello, I'm here' pings?
The following questions haven't been answered, have they been asked?
- Which countries within the search area have positively ruled out MH370 crossing into their airspace? Have any?
- Which countries did/do not have the capability to confirm whether MH370 entered their airspace? (I've read that southern Thailand was not covered, it may be the case that parts of Indonesia weren't too. How widely is this known?)
That would explain if there was 'strategic planning' along the 'flightpath', if it was a completely different aircraft en route elsewhere.
How much information is contained in these 'Hello, I'm here' pings?
The following questions haven't been answered, have they been asked?
- Which countries within the search area have positively ruled out MH370 crossing into their airspace? Have any?
- Which countries did/do not have the capability to confirm whether MH370 entered their airspace? (I've read that southern Thailand was not covered, it may be the case that parts of Indonesia weren't too. How widely is this known?)
Simply a heads-up (as a change of programme), on TV Channel 5 here in the UK tonight (14th) at 9 pm/2100z for one hour - 'The Plane that Vanished: Live'.
What is the general feeling ?
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I am beginning to think there are two heros in waiting here, who have negotiated to at least prolong the inevitable or possibly save lives. They appear, to me, to have left a quite specific trace with what they had available.
The idea that pilots would take a plane should surely be the least conceivable on this forum...
The idea that pilots would take a plane should surely be the least conceivable on this forum...
Tracking
Once the aircraft was low enough and in range of mobile phone masts then all mobile phones could be tracked and positioned with some degree of accuracy.
The phone does not even have to be on. Just the battery installed.
Once a few mobile numbers of the pax have been identified, pretty simple task, then the position of these phones should be easy to locate.
The phone does not even have to be on. Just the battery installed.
Once a few mobile numbers of the pax have been identified, pretty simple task, then the position of these phones should be easy to locate.
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Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah - RE Flight Simulator
"Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah was in command of MH370 at the time of it's disappearance. Captain Shah was well known to many in the flight simulation community because he had developed an online presence in which he dedicated many hours of his time to promoting the enjoyment of flying generally, and flight simulation specifically.
In a manner of speaking, our community appears to have lost one of our own by virtue of the fact that he was also an accomplished 777 captain flying for a well respected airline.
There has been some conjecture in various locations around the internet as to what Captain Shah's relationship with PMDG might have been. Some have posited that since he is a flight simulation enthusiast and a 777 captain, he must therefore have been involved in the development and/or testing of the PMDG 777-200LR/F product line.
Aside from being a PMDG customer, Captain Shah had no relationship with PMDG Simulations.
Currently there are significant questions and mystery surrounding the circumstances of MH 370. As is always the case when something cannot be explained, there are many folks attempting to explain the event to the public using theories, guesswork and good, old-fashioned imagination. Some of these individuals are indeed experts attempting to apply reasoned thought process to the event in order to help the public understand what happened. Still others are working with outdated expertise, or lack of expertise in the type of flying involved, the aircraft involved or the technology involved.
Some of these commentators have focused on Captain Shah's love of the flight simulation hobby as a suggestion that he may somehow have played a role in the disappearance of MH 370. Such wild conjecture is not only insulting to those of us who wear or have worn the stripes of a captain, but has the potential to be damaging to the flight simulation hobby."
Please bear this in mind, regarding pointing the finger at Captain Shah.
In a manner of speaking, our community appears to have lost one of our own by virtue of the fact that he was also an accomplished 777 captain flying for a well respected airline.
There has been some conjecture in various locations around the internet as to what Captain Shah's relationship with PMDG might have been. Some have posited that since he is a flight simulation enthusiast and a 777 captain, he must therefore have been involved in the development and/or testing of the PMDG 777-200LR/F product line.
Aside from being a PMDG customer, Captain Shah had no relationship with PMDG Simulations.
Currently there are significant questions and mystery surrounding the circumstances of MH 370. As is always the case when something cannot be explained, there are many folks attempting to explain the event to the public using theories, guesswork and good, old-fashioned imagination. Some of these individuals are indeed experts attempting to apply reasoned thought process to the event in order to help the public understand what happened. Still others are working with outdated expertise, or lack of expertise in the type of flying involved, the aircraft involved or the technology involved.
Some of these commentators have focused on Captain Shah's love of the flight simulation hobby as a suggestion that he may somehow have played a role in the disappearance of MH 370. Such wild conjecture is not only insulting to those of us who wear or have worn the stripes of a captain, but has the potential to be damaging to the flight simulation hobby."
Please bear this in mind, regarding pointing the finger at Captain Shah.
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And anyone who looks at these very precise changes of headings at recognised way points can only come to the one conclusion that the aircraft was not critically damaged and was under the command of a professionally trained pilot.
If the ACARS 'pings' information is correct, then this route was constructed from between 5 and 10 triangulated positions at 30 min intervals. Just because someone has drawn a 'line of best fit' using known waypoints then superimposed it on a map of the area, that does not make it a verified route.
It is just a guestimate of where it may have gone.
dmba...The idea that pilots would take a plane should surely be the least conceivable on this forum...
History is not on your side. Only recently an Ethiopian plane was hijacked by the co-pilot with the Captain locked out. Aircraft landed in Geneva etc..
History is not on your side. Only recently an Ethiopian plane was hijacked by the co-pilot with the Captain locked out. Aircraft landed in Geneva etc..
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There is so much bizarre theories bandied about, we should remind ourselves of what we really know
1) A/c vanishing in mid flight is incredibly rare.
2) Hijack or terrorist action is much rarer (20-50x less likely) than pilot error or technical fault
3) We have no solid information beyond the LKP in the Gulf of Thailand, only rumors.
Then list what we don't know:
SAR is searching both sides of Malay peninsula, South China Sea and Andaman Sea, because they do not know where to look.
We don't know the transponder was switched off, just that it never showed up in Vietnam airspace.
We don't know that the a/c produced no RT or mayday, just that none was heard or recorded.
We don't know if the plane turned back or not
We don't know if the engines were running for hours afterwards
We have no evidence of a hijacking, ransom or terrorist action.
We have no evidence of a rogue or suicidal pilot, which are also incredibly rare and unlikely.
Lack of debris around LKP does not mean that it did not crash there.
There have been so many false leads now, we can't really believe anything beyond what was known in the hours after the disappearance. I don't expect an imminent breakthrough. Rumors and theories are flying around the internet, but what it seems to me is that the authorities and SAR resources really don't know much more than we do. They seem to be chasing rumors too. The internet has given "legs" to some of these rumors. This does not turn rumor into evidence.
It is deeply unsatisfactory, but there is no other conclusion. We as crew and passengers just have to live with no understanding of this unsettling incident until something turns up. Don't be surprised if this takes a few more weeks.