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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:09
  #3161 (permalink)  
 
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Oh hang on, outside of the cockpit (when he is always accompanied) where else can a "Fully qualified" pilot route plan, check fuel consumption, practice disabling equipment?
You DO know how many hours this captain has/d, don't you?
How many of those hours are relevant to the skills required in this case?


The point is, the police must investigate every possibility in order to dismiss each. Searching a house is one of the easiest tasks in this investigation requiring very few assets and very little time. Until it's done nobody knows what evidence may or may not be there!
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:13
  #3162 (permalink)  
 
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The Malaysian authorities seemed to dismiss the finding of Jet fuel in an oil slick in the South China Sea as being significant, if not connected to 370, where could the Jet fuel have come from?
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:17
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If reports about the likely (destination according to radar plots) is to be believed, and subsequently proved as being the Andaman Islands and we accept that someone set up a very deliberate flight path using recognised way points.

Why didn't 'they' set a direct course across the Thai peninsula.

That would have saved time and fuel.

Thoughts on why 'they' decided to fly over Malaysia first and then changed the heading?

Obviously this was not spur of the moment stuff.

Why that route?
I'm guessing that route was strategically planned, which is why the plane has now "disappeared" and we are still searching for it 7 days later! Also, such a route would probably involve flying under the ground radars, thus being undetected while making its way to where it was heading after disabling all onboard communications and ACARS and ELT
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:19
  #3164 (permalink)  
 
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Reported by Singapore Today on Twitter
"This is latest and most accurate flight path and the reason why the search is now where it is"
https://twitter.com/sgify

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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:19
  #3165 (permalink)  
 
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But why in the world someone who takes (unlawfully, let's suppose) control of the a/c would want to follow a route neatly through all those wpts? If he wanted to take it somewhere, it would be more logical to fly direct.
More logical maybe. but not so easy to an unqualified person flying the plane especially if you are unsure of your location after the struggle to take over control of the aircraft. If your 'nefarious' final destination is not in the FMC database and you really don't fancy dead reckoning at night, a bit of advance planning and judicious use of the LSKs will get you 90% of the way there.

I'm not saying that's what happened but it is certainly something to consider.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:19
  #3166 (permalink)  
 
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The Malaysian authorities seemed to dismiss the finding of Jet fuel in an oil slick in the South China Sea as being significant, if not connected to 370, where could the Jet fuel have come from?
I remember last seeing that they said only "fuel".. Did they confirm later after testing that it was indeed "jet fuel" or was the results of the testing not publicised?
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:20
  #3167 (permalink)  
 
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Please, could someone here with access to reliable knowledge confirm to me that push-back and take-off were precisely at 00:27 and 00:41 local time, respectively? I have various media contradictions (Flightstats vs. FR24 vs. others) and not interested in what the press says. Only in hard data. Many thanks indeed. Titania
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:22
  #3168 (permalink)  
 
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"This is latest and most accurate flight path and the reason why the search is now where it is"
After how many hours of flight would it then be at IGREX? Has that been released? i.e. the time at which it was at each waypoint?
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:24
  #3169 (permalink)  
 
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EPPO: But why in the world someone who takes (unlawfully, let's suppose) control of the a/c would want to follow a route neatly through all those wpts? If he wanted to take it somewhere, it would be more logical to fly direct.
If it stays on UARs on the associated track, then radar operators would be more likely to overlook the track as an expected everyday blip. It's entirely possible that people would just mentally filter it out.

As soon as you go off-route and start flying direct, then that would be an unusual occurrence that you'd pay more attention to.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:27
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PortVale: Would SIA68's TCAS not go mental and force an RA if MH370 got too close?

SIA would tell ATC.
Transponder was off, so TCAS wouldn't know it was there.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:29
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Let's back track.

Transponder turned off.

ATC ask aircraft flying ahead to try to make contact on the emergency frequency.

This was achieved. But I have seen no transcript even from memory of what was said. Just that communication was difficult because of static.

But the other Malaysian pilot said he was confident it sounded like the voice of the pilot or co pilot.

Then this avenue of communication stopped as well.

It would be very interesting to know the time line of the erratic flight levels.

Could that call up on the emergency frequency have alerted the innocent pilot to what the other was up to eg switching off the transponder. And a struggle eschewed???

It seems that some sort of conversation happened. If everything was kosher and you were in control of an aircraft and you are contacted on an emergency frequency saying that your transponder is off and ATC have lost you - that would be be more than a casual chat.

And finally what indication if any would appear on the flight deck that the transponder had been turned off. Would there be on screen messages? Alarms.

Specifically would a co-pilot know if a driver in the other seat had disabled these?
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:30
  #3172 (permalink)  
 
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Is the conflicting information coming from the various agencies (Malaysia, USA - even China) quite deliberate?

If we suppose the aircraft has possibly landed somewhere it would make sense for the authorities to keep giving an appearance of confusion and lack of knowledge whilst getting all the ducks in a row to deal with the perpetrators when they make their next move.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:31
  #3173 (permalink)  
 
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I'm not too familiar with TCAS' operation, but since 370's Transponder was decidedly off, would 68 know they were there at all?
SIA68 would only know MH370 was there through visual means, not on radar since transponder and acars were off
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:33
  #3174 (permalink)  
 
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playing for max confusion and time.....

The more one sees , and the more one reads, especially regarding the route being flown and the timing of dropping off of all comms, the more this looks like a very carefully planned and executed operation. The choice of when to go "missing" and then large changes of heading to throw off any searchers ( radar or otherwise ) .....

Looks like an insider job now from where I'm sitting , but sadly I've been wrong many times in the past, so.....
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:36
  #3175 (permalink)  
 
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sneaking up on SIA

To 'sneak up' on SIA they would have had to be able to fly significantly faster than SIA or fly some sort of lateral intercept maneuver. SIA was also a T7.... I think we're in fighter/interceptor territory here, not what a T7 is built to do.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:42
  #3176 (permalink)  
 
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hoppy

How many of those hours are relevant to the skills required in this case?
You are missing the point.

A senior captain with that much experience and presumably access to a whole library of company and Boeng manuals is not likely to need a homebuilt flight sim to find out how to switch off, or disable various functions.

Yes, the police should investigate everything, but with limited resources they need to prioritise the most likely areas first.

A flight sim in the captain's home and discussed on a number of enthusiast forums and YouTube is not really that suspicious.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:44
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Just my tuppence worth. The latest reports seem to indicate a plane flying along airways and my first thought was - bearing in mind their transponder was off and they weren't talking to anyone - thank goodness they didn't collide with another plane.

Some have suggested that an explosive decompression or even a slow decompression for that matter could have been the cause, losing communications - but surely anything disrupting the comms / transponder would also impact their ability to navigate?

Others suggest that some event - explosive decompression with failed oxygen would lead to hypoxia and this could have impaired their ability but how could they be so hypoxic as not to be able to enter the correct altitude in the autopilot but able to enter the details into a flight management system for a totally different set of co-ordinates?

Some are stating the pilot turned the transponder off as a precursor in a bid to commit suicide but then I recall hearing about the altitude change - if I pilot wanted to commit suicide, why not "go out in a blaze of glory" and charge along an airway toward oncoming traffic with ATC unaware what's going on? Surely, anyone intent on committing suicide isn't "rational" enough to switch from FL350 down to a level which would avoid any other traffic flying according to the Hemispherical rule.

Then why FL295? Because they were possibly transiting an area where the Quadrangal rule is in effect and they wanted to be sure that they didn't hit anything coming the other way, because this is in effect up to FL290 (see the Malaysian AIP). So why not fly at FL355? Possible because other planes flying at FL340 - 360 could see them pass relatively close under them and advise ATC of a "near miss"?

So when you add this all up together, I'm tending to think that this was a deliberate change of course, maybe a member of the crew had ulterior motives and had intended to divert elsewhere, for reasons unknown - who knows, maybe coercion of some sort or other? However he could only do this once his fellow (non involved) flight crew had actually left the cabin, for example for a toilet break, but what happened if he had miscalculated the fuel required to reach this new destination due to high level winds, due to the fact that he couldn't start his new flight because his co-crew didn't go for their break early enough, that the plane then was forced to ditch elsewhere?

I don't subscribe to the theory of someone else hijacking the plane by overpowering the crew because by now the backgrounds of all those on board would have been examined and anyone without a pilot's licence who would have been learning to operate a 737's navigational and comms system would be suspicious and I don't believe that an amateur, reliant on flight sims alone, would be able to adequately program a 737's FMS...
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:50
  #3178 (permalink)  
 
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In post 3233 The flightpath suggests transponder was disabled exactly at igari waypoint. If this is correct you could think the flightplan was already in the FMS beforehand and whoever was in control wanted tot hide the deviation from the filed flightplan exactly when reaching igari by turning off the transponder.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:51
  #3179 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mrbigbird
If reports about the likely (destination according to radar plots) is to be believed, and subsequently proved as being the Andaman Islands and we accept that someone set up a very deliberate flight path using recognised way points.

Why didn't 'they' set a direct course across the Thai peninsula.

That would have saved time and fuel.

Thoughts on why 'they' decided to fly over Malaysia first and then changed the heading?

Obviously this was not spur of the moment stuff.

Why that route?
If you wanted to ensure that any AD people awake were not made edgy by your aircraft you would follow a standard route at a standard altitude and look like any other westbound. If you want to alert AD fly off route on a direct heading through procedural airspace. This also confirms the taken by someone who knows and has planned what they are doing. Anyone still pushing the decompression after a bomb, fuselage failure or oxygen bottle theories should abandon them.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 11:52
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You wouldn't go out in a blaze of glory because if it were apparent that it was a deliberate act, your insurance will not pay out, not to mention the shame your family would live with. Whereas going into stealth mode, flying South West into very deep sea miles from where people are looking means there's a good chance you'll never be found.
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