Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[HeathrowAirport]

Final recorded track and height

I was just looking at the flight plan, IGARI -BITOD is 059*M so the final recorded track was 040* - Winds surely didn't give 19* of drift on the night?

The last location tracked by Flightradar24 is
Time UTC: 17:21:03
Lat: 6.97
Lon: 103.63
Alt: 35000
Speed: 471 knots
Heading: 40

Between 17:19 and 17:20 the aircraft was changing heading from 25 to 40 degrees, which is probably completely according to flight plan as MH370 on both 4 March and 8 March did the same at the same position. Last 2 signals are both showing that the aircraft is heading in direction 40 degrees.

BITOD-BIBAN is 035*M so I presume that ATC gave a shortcut or is this not common practice in that airspace, as it is with European during quieter times? As the final turn at IGARI suggests a route direct given by ATC.

Today there are reports in media that MH370 may have turned around. FR24 have not tracked this. This could have happened if the aircraft suddenly lost altitude as FR24 coverage in that area is limited to about 30000 feet.

So this may explain why there was a 0ft readout from Mode S as anything below 30,000ft wouldn't read correctly due to lack of coverage. Whatever happened, did so before the next data grab at 17:22:ish..

[wiggy]

could that be an overwing exit door?

Not on any 777-200 I'm aware of....

[DaveReidUK]

So this may explain why there was a 0ft readout from Mode S

We don't know that there was such a thing.

[Whiskey Papa]

Re doors. You didn't look at a picture of a B777 as I suggested, did you?

[andrasz]

1000 posts and 50 pages down, perhaps time to summarize the VERIFIED facts we know more than 50 hours after the event:

• Transponder response ceased after 17:21 UTC (01:21 LT), about 40 minutes into the flight
• There was no verified communication with the aircraft after this time
• Last reported position, altitude, speed and heading as reported by FR24 correct
• There was no significant weather in the area of last contact
• No unusual ACARS messages received
• At last known position aircraft had a remaining endurance of approximately 6.5 hours, equating to a range of about 5000 kilometres
• Subsequently aircraft did not enter any area with civilian primary radar coverage
• There were two passengers with confirmed false identities on board, further two suspect.
• Same airframe suffered substantial wingtip damage in a ground accident in Shanghai in August 2012 which was repaired
• Till now no part of the aircraft had been located.
• ... ?

[HeathrowAirport]

We don't know that there was such a thing.

I am sure I read it on here, that there was erroneous/unverified data.

[MartinM]

That picture looks more like the emergency exit hatch on a king air than a main door to a Boeing.

Never been in a 777, could that be an overwing exit door?

T7 has all Emergency Exits as full size doors. The hatch is indeed not a T7.

Not even a Boeing at all. 737th have different overwing exits

Keep searching ...

[ian16th]

Global Warrior,

you can depart one place using one passport and arrive in the UK using another!!!!! BY AIR!!!

Definitly.

A lot of dual passport holders do this, as many countries that allow dual citizenship, insist that if you have their passport you must use it at their border.

I am aware that South Africa and Australia have this requirement.
Two countries where there are many dual citizens with a UK passport.

[roving]

Given the repeated assertions that terrorists would not use forged stolen passports, this link addresses the Thai trade in forging stolen passports which are then sold on not only to criminals but terrorists groups.

Thailand?s crime-busters set sights on passport fraud gangs - The BigChilli

[JG1]

Mach tuck? Spin? What? You might as well speculate that the ap failed and it flew off into orbit.

[kinteafrokunta]

Wrt to the early reports of another MAS pilot on MH088 having established contact on 121.5, the so called static and mumbling could be feeble replies from a hypoxic pilot using a poorly adjusted O2 mask.

In an abrupt explosive decompression, people with glasses or beards normally do not don the O2 masks properly especially in a busy, highly stressful emergency situation. Just saying.......

[JG1]

Wrt a breakup and a debris trail.. It could have ditched... And sank... Nobody knows yet ...until the airframe is found.

[roving]

GobanaStick, the 9/11 terrorists used forged passports.


govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/staff_statements/staff_statement_1.pdf

[Evanelpus]

That's no door but it did remind me of a cabin window dado panel.

[mseyfang]

Mach tuck? Spin? What? You might as well speculate that the ap failed and it flew off into orbit.

Admittedly it is unlikely, but there have been multiple instances of ADIRU failures that have resulted in uncommanded and unexpected aircraft maneuvers. Malaysia had one in 2005 in a T7 as I recall. While these faults have supposedly been fixed, one never knows; these are devices that are highly complex and they are only as good as the programming that goes into them.

Almost all accidents involve multiple causes. An ADIRU fault resulting in an uncommanded maneuver plus an incorrect response to that maneuver could, at least in theory, explain an inflight breakup.

In any case, I readily admit that this is idle speculation. The aircraft will be found, the investigators will do their work based on facts and evidence and the cause identified and hopefully something will be learned that makes aviation safer going forward.

[broadreach]

Early in this thread some posters, who I believe identified themselves as flight crew who regularly overfly the Gulf of Thailand, mentioned the density of squid fishing boats, with their bright lights to attract the squid. Looking down at night like looking at a starry sky. One poster suggested the fishermen would have been unlikely to see any object falling from the sky precisely because of the brightness of their own lights. With which I would agree entirely. At sea, with lights on, you can see nothing outside the immediate surroundings of the boat or ship.

I'm just wondering whether the area in in which the aircraft is presumed lost is also a regular fishing ground (it may not be the same area the early posters were referring to). And, if it is, what has become of the boats over the last two days. Would they have been dragooned into the search and offered rewards for finding anything, or would they have been chased off by the navies involved due to a perceived looting risk or that of naval vessels running them over? My own guess is that fishing boats would be warned to stay clear; it would be ironic, not to mention some loss of face for the authorities involved, if it were a fisherman who came up with the first piece of wreckage.

[Ida down]

The two Australian Air Force Orions are used to looking for needles in haystacks, so to speak, given the large distances they are used to searching, hopefully they will come up with something. The agony of the families concerned is becoming too much, this is appalling, and becoming increasingly bizarre, its almost like a movie set. Lets hope today, the answer comes.

[ia1166]

There is an emergency code for access to the flight deck in case of both pilot incapacitation.

The cabin crew have portable oxygen bottles so if they have passed out they could gain access to the flight deck, fit the oxy masks and recover the pilots.

They have to remember the code of course, and be somewhat pro active.

[wild goose]

Assuming the aircraft disintegrated over the sea, or struck the sea intact, surely by now debris would have been found (see AF447).

Lack of the above would suggest the aircraft coming down over land, whether intact or otherwise. Valujet in the Everglades comes to mind. Jungle canopies can make SAR very difficult, such as in southern Vietnam or even Malaysia itself.

[ia1166]

Igari is a long way off shore.

Not sure I've seen a lot of prawn boats out that far.

There is probably more chance of another aircraft seeing an in flight explosion, and not much chance of anyone seeing a nose dive at night.