Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
If they don't find anything within 24 more hours, I think it may be time to step back and consider possibilities other than a crash into the ocean. The area of ocean where the 777 is reported to have disappeared is relatively densely traveled, and a 777 would leave a whole lotta floating debris (especially if it broke up in-flight). Add dozens of dedicated search ships and aircraft and it becomes hard to believe we could go 72 hours without finding a trace.
There is an awful lot of the reported 'facts' in this case that are not adding up.
There is an awful lot of the reported 'facts' in this case that are not adding up.
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Military radar data
It's been years since I've worked in the field, but in the day, the powers-that-be were extremely reluctant to publicly disclose anything that would reveal capabilities of their military radars. Even if it meant helping with a civil matter.
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Radar Coverage
Once upon a time two commercial aircraft did a mid air over the grand canyon. My source said both were reporting being elsewhere and each was taking passengers for an off track sight see of the canyon.
Results was Congress mandate the US Air Force put in place 100% coverage of the US for ATC.
Take care not to extrapolate the US flight coverage picture to the rest of the world. I get 600+ miles between Kuala Lumpur and Bien Hoa Air Base in Viet Nam. That is a lot of water with no eye's on a scope.
Results was Congress mandate the US Air Force put in place 100% coverage of the US for ATC.
Take care not to extrapolate the US flight coverage picture to the rest of the world. I get 600+ miles between Kuala Lumpur and Bien Hoa Air Base in Viet Nam. That is a lot of water with no eye's on a scope.
Curious
I'm curious as to whether or not an inflight breakup would not cause a fireball or flash of some kind.
I suppose it would possible, but I think not probable.
If NASA is telling the truth about not seeing a flash of any kind, and so far, no reports from the surface, plus the 3 or 4 aircraft in the area on clear night have not reported they saw anything, then it either disintegrated with no flash, or it was flown somewhere else.
However, if it disintegrated with no flash, it should be near where they last saw it on radar...yes?
There are a lot of international implications in the area, and I'm sure all the countries involved in the search want to be very careful about what they release.
I suppose it would possible, but I think not probable.
If NASA is telling the truth about not seeing a flash of any kind, and so far, no reports from the surface, plus the 3 or 4 aircraft in the area on clear night have not reported they saw anything, then it either disintegrated with no flash, or it was flown somewhere else.
However, if it disintegrated with no flash, it should be near where they last saw it on radar...yes?
There are a lot of international implications in the area, and I'm sure all the countries involved in the search want to be very careful about what they release.
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Yesterday there was the report of a gentleman who had seen a bright white light descending sharply.
Given his location, the last reported position of the aircraft, etc - would this match the scenario of the flight descending to avoid radar and possibly crossing Malaysia toward the west? Could he have seen either the usual lights, or possibly landing lights? Might the pilot have illuminated the landing lights either in an attempt to attract attention (if he was under duress) or simply to see better if flying at a very low altitude?
Also - Since this transpired in the middle of the night, with it dark outside and many passengers presumably resting - if the pilots were quietly threatened into cooperation and the various coms were shut off, would passengers even have been aware of a hijacking?
Given his location, the last reported position of the aircraft, etc - would this match the scenario of the flight descending to avoid radar and possibly crossing Malaysia toward the west? Could he have seen either the usual lights, or possibly landing lights? Might the pilot have illuminated the landing lights either in an attempt to attract attention (if he was under duress) or simply to see better if flying at a very low altitude?
Also - Since this transpired in the middle of the night, with it dark outside and many passengers presumably resting - if the pilots were quietly threatened into cooperation and the various coms were shut off, would passengers even have been aware of a hijacking?
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We know a 777 disappeared over the ocean and we have not found the crash site. Any reasonable speculation at this point as to why is impossible.
It took two years to get the answers for AF447. The shallow water near their last known position will make this one much easier. The black boxes will tell the story when they are found.
The media wants to keep public interest up with scraps they have like stolen passports but nothing will be known until the FDR and CVR are recovered.
It took two years to get the answers for AF447. The shallow water near their last known position will make this one much easier. The black boxes will tell the story when they are found.
The media wants to keep public interest up with scraps they have like stolen passports but nothing will be known until the FDR and CVR are recovered.
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The vast majority of the speculative posts here are all with good intentions. This forum has managed to maintain a good level of respectability compared to everywhere else. I saw a youtube video of a guy suggesting that FR24 had altered the planes flight path. He has merged together a trace of the actual flight in question and the one of the following day. His video has been viewed 60000 times and a lot of people seem to believe the guy...so although you might complain about having non-pilots on here at least you don't have people intentionally spreading lies...
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re: Radar Coverage
The 1956 Grand Canyon mid-air had nothing to do with "sightseeing". That it occurred over the Grand Canyon was purely coincidence. There were changes in altitude due to weather and other factors. Changes in altitude were granted but not relayed. The crash resulted in the coordination of ATC under the newly created FAA.
1956 Grand Canyon mid-air collision - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
1956 Grand Canyon mid-air collision - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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"Malaysian authorities have released security video of the two men who used stolen passports to board the Malaysia Airlines plane that vanished over the South China Sea to international security agencies and will soon release them publicly."
Source: Missing Malaysia Airlines jet: Security footage of mystery passengers to be released
Source: Missing Malaysia Airlines jet: Security footage of mystery passengers to be released
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The vast majority of the speculative posts here are all with good intentions. This forum has managed to maintain a good level of respectability compared to everywhere else. I saw a youtube video of a guy suggesting that FR24 had altered the planes flight path. He has merged together a trace of the actual flight in question and the one of the following day. His video has been viewed 60000 times and a lot of people seem to believe the guy...so although you might complain about having non-pilots on here at least you don't have people intentionally spreading lies...
At least here, most posts have a link to their source, so forum users & judge for themselves about the factuality of a comment. A very good habit to be in.
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I am not surprised at all the speculation going on here - this is clearly a very unusual accident and the eventual explanation will be of a very unusual and rare nature. One would not have expected that the pilots of AF447 would display such levels of inability to fly their aircraft and would crash it in such a way.
However, it would be wise to wait until at least a little more information emerges. One should also not expect British or American levels of transparency from the Malaysian authorities. Other countries organisations don't necessarily share the view that all items of information should be released and so withhold certain items. They also get very prickly when challenged (bureaucrats are like that). Military involvement will also limit the amount of information released. Military organisations are past masters at operating the 'need to know' principle to its fullest. Add in possible turf wars and one begins to think that it is amazing that so much has been released. All this, though, doesn't help the search which would benefit from sharing information. But then a search involving a lot of different agencies always has the flavour of trying to herd cats.
However, it would be wise to wait until at least a little more information emerges. One should also not expect British or American levels of transparency from the Malaysian authorities. Other countries organisations don't necessarily share the view that all items of information should be released and so withhold certain items. They also get very prickly when challenged (bureaucrats are like that). Military involvement will also limit the amount of information released. Military organisations are past masters at operating the 'need to know' principle to its fullest. Add in possible turf wars and one begins to think that it is amazing that so much has been released. All this, though, doesn't help the search which would benefit from sharing information. But then a search involving a lot of different agencies always has the flavour of trying to herd cats.
Thread Starter
OBD - it would be either the National Reconnaissance Office or the DOD itself whose SBIRS satellites would have seen a flash, not NASA.
A few pages back, there was an explanation as to why an in-flight breakup in the cruise might not necessarily result in an explosion.
Agree with the above poster.
This is a part of the world where there is a fair bit of military tension at the moment.
If military radar is being used as source data to try and help in the search, I would imagine there would be huge sensitivity and scrutiny before releasing anything that might give a clue to operational capabilities.
I suspect that's the real reason for the Civil Aviation guy's rather mysterious comment that he `can't tell the press everything.'
I also suspect that's why they're looking in the Straits of Malacca as well... they know something we don't yet.
Some insight can be gained here as to how any search involving military capabilities there might be a little `delicate' so to speak.
A few pages back, there was an explanation as to why an in-flight breakup in the cruise might not necessarily result in an explosion.
Agree with the above poster.
This is a part of the world where there is a fair bit of military tension at the moment.
If military radar is being used as source data to try and help in the search, I would imagine there would be huge sensitivity and scrutiny before releasing anything that might give a clue to operational capabilities.
I suspect that's the real reason for the Civil Aviation guy's rather mysterious comment that he `can't tell the press everything.'
I also suspect that's why they're looking in the Straits of Malacca as well... they know something we don't yet.
Some insight can be gained here as to how any search involving military capabilities there might be a little `delicate' so to speak.
Last edited by tartare; 11th Mar 2014 at 00:41.
The two individuals with stolen passports bought the cheapest flight available for their routes, so they flew economy.
Sitting in the back of the airplane, they would draw attention just by coming forward into the first class/cockpit area. That seems inconsistent with a planned hijacking. They are more likely just two of the victims rather than perpetrators.
Sitting in the back of the airplane, they would draw attention just by coming forward into the first class/cockpit area. That seems inconsistent with a planned hijacking. They are more likely just two of the victims rather than perpetrators.
@Tartare
Thanks for the correction. I couldn't remember.
I did see the previous posts about the no flash break up. I'm just not sure
I agree with the above poster as well.
Have a good evening.
I did see the previous posts about the no flash break up. I'm just not sure
I agree with the above poster as well.
Have a good evening.
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Interesting new tidbit:
CNN' chief national security correspondent said the revelation that Mr Ali bought passports and tickets for the two Iranian passengers adds to concerns the loss of the Flight MH370 might have been a terrorist atrocity.
Jim Sciutto said: "This adds to the concerns because a terrorist group would go to a fixer too."
"They piggyback on drug smugglers and immigration smugglers, so absolutely they could go to this guy. He may know nothing about it. He would be just given a sum of money and told 'get these people on an airplane, get them passports'."
CNN' chief national security correspondent said the revelation that Mr Ali bought passports and tickets for the two Iranian passengers adds to concerns the loss of the Flight MH370 might have been a terrorist atrocity.
Jim Sciutto said: "This adds to the concerns because a terrorist group would go to a fixer too."
"They piggyback on drug smugglers and immigration smugglers, so absolutely they could go to this guy. He may know nothing about it. He would be just given a sum of money and told 'get these people on an airplane, get them passports'."
MH have decided to bring the families of all the 'lost' passengers to Kuala Lumpur as soon as possible. There is an additional service from Beijing to Kuala Lumpur today especially for the families, the details being highly confidential. The overflow passengers will be accommodated on scheduled services. The OneWorld partners of MH have been requested to assist with transport to KUL from all parts of the World except China.
The reasons for this action appear to be due to the unrest and problems being caused by the families of 'missing' passengers in China. All costs including medical and cash are being borne by MH. Each family is being provided with at least one MH staff member acting in the role of a caregiver. MH staff from Australia have been sent to KUL to assist with the families of 'missing' non Asian passengers.
The name of the Chinese passenger whose name was obscured on a passenger namelist released has now been released. The investigation team now believe there is a link between the 2 passengers using fake passports and the disappearance of the aircraft which could be anywhere.
A disaster recovery management specialist from Atlanta has been engaged to assist MH with dealing's with Authorities
The reasons for this action appear to be due to the unrest and problems being caused by the families of 'missing' passengers in China. All costs including medical and cash are being borne by MH. Each family is being provided with at least one MH staff member acting in the role of a caregiver. MH staff from Australia have been sent to KUL to assist with the families of 'missing' non Asian passengers.
The name of the Chinese passenger whose name was obscured on a passenger namelist released has now been released. The investigation team now believe there is a link between the 2 passengers using fake passports and the disappearance of the aircraft which could be anywhere.
A disaster recovery management specialist from Atlanta has been engaged to assist MH with dealing's with Authorities
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CNN' chief national security correspondent said the revelation that Mr Ali bought passports and tickets for the two Iranian passengers adds to concerns the loss of the Flight MH370 might have been a terrorist atrocity.
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I am kind of amazed that nothing has turned up after 3 days. I still don't think weather is an issue but I went ahead and assembled a collection of charts profiling the upper-air data, sea-surface temperature, and currents for you all to peruse. I saw several pages back that people were asking about winds aloft, so I have included some radiosonde profiles from both Ho Chi Minh City and the Malaysian coast.
Tim Vasquez
Weather Graphics
Link:
Collection of meteorological and oceanographic images for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - Weather Graphics
Sample chart: FL340 chart for 08/0000 UTC with observed radiosonde and interpolated winds:
Tim Vasquez
Weather Graphics
Link:
Collection of meteorological and oceanographic images for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - Weather Graphics
Sample chart: FL340 chart for 08/0000 UTC with observed radiosonde and interpolated winds:
