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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 17th Jan 2017, 12:41
  #11781 (permalink)  
 
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It's interesting no-one has found the Varig 707 or Faucett 727 which crashed in the 70s & 90s. Both of those much, much closer to land than MH370 likely is.

It's a pity they didn't take the northern search area more seriously though given where the washed up debris was.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 12:53
  #11782 (permalink)  
 
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One of the key presumptions in concluding that the crash site was in the 7th arc was that the aircraft continued on a straight autopilot course.

That presumption is now called into serious question. On the other hand, the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight.

One thing I noticed right away with the ping data is that those pings are consistent with a straight path - but far from perfectly consistent. And, of course, they are also consistent with many other paths.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 13:00
  #11783 (permalink)  
 
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There was a recent article that stated that it was likely that Boeing would take up the MH370 search when the ATSB gave up. I have seen no confirmation from anyone in authority (or Boeing) that this would be the case.

Boeing rumored to take up MH370 search

I cannot understand why Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and David Mearns were not enticed into the search for MH370.
After all, Mearns found the "unfindable" 1941 shipwreck of HMAS Sydney, in 2008, around 130 miles SW of Carnarvon - and WHOI played a substantial part in helping to locate AF447.
The wreck of HMAS Sydney was found at a depth exceeding 8000 feet, and it was found within a relatively short time after Mearns commenced his search. However, Mearns did have the benefit of warship contact records and a relatively small search area.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 13:05
  #11784 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by .Scott
One of the key presumptions in concluding that the crash site was in the 7th arc was that the aircraft continued on a straight autopilot course.

That presumption is now called into serious question. On the other hand, the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight.
The two theories aren't mutually exclusive.

Once the engines quit, the question of whether or not the aircraft was flying on autopilot up to that point becomes academic.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 13:36
  #11785 (permalink)  
 
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What I did not understand (from early on) and still do not understand is what appears to be a 'single' line of reasoning and search.

A number of alternative approaches and scenario's have been proposed. At least one of those scenario's suggested a very limited search area and was presented to the ATSB and Malaysian investigations. An area in the southern Indian Ocean proposed at a time when the official search was still combing the Andaman to Perth route. As far as I know that limited scenario is still possible with the old and new drift analysis and the various confirmed finds.

Why a search for 2 years over a huge area without even talking about or checking such relatively easy check&reject alternatives.

These Fugro guys and others on board have been operating in pretty risky environment for a long time. I only have admiration for them.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 13:44
  #11786 (permalink)  
 
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Quote from .Scott:
"...the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight."
Quote from DaveReidUK:
"Once the engines quit, the question of whether or not the aircraft was flying on autopilot up to that point becomes academic."

I would go further than Dave. Any suggestion of a qualified and current B777 pilot setting the aircraft down in one piece in the Southern Indian Ocean, even if all systems were available, and the aircraft subsequently sinking intact would also lack credibility. As previously commented, this was not the River Hudson. There would be debris, regardless of the circumstances of the impact, and some pieces would float better and for longer than others.

Following the discovery of a piece of flaperon on the island of Reunion, the subsequent arrival of debris on the eastern coasts of Africa and/or Madagascar was predicted on the MH370 thread. The problem was how to locate and identify the larger pieces before they were put to good use by those residing on those shores.

Last edited by Chris Scott; 17th Jan 2017 at 16:14. Reason: 2nd para extended. Indian added.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 13:47
  #11787 (permalink)  
 
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Northwest Flight 2501, June 23, 1950 in Lake Michigan has never been found.

http://archive.jsonline.com/news/wis...249370671.html
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 13:50
  #11788 (permalink)  
 
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Why a search for 2 years over a huge area without even talking about or checking such relatively easy check&reject alternatives.
Unfortunately when there's limited resources, then every day spent checking "some other area" will necessarily take away from time checking within the "most probable area".

So the best strategy is to maximize your resources by searching areas according to the best probabilities.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 13:51
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It will probably show up eventually, Star Dust was found over 60 years after vanishing.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 14:10
  #11790 (permalink)  
 
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"Star Dust was found over 60 years after vanishing."

Quite. Emerging from a glacier...
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 16:22
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I suspect that the decision to call the search off was likely influenced by a common understanding of the parties to investigation that the loss of the aircraft was due to "willful human inputs" as already indicated in the preliminary report. Accepting this scenario, it is highly unlikely that the FDR/CVR would reveal anything that is not already known, both can easily be stopped by pulling a CB, and likely were just like the transponder. I would assume that were there any scenarios that would indicate any technical malfunction (like AF447) , there would be a much greater incentive to find the wreck whatever it takes.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 16:38
  #11792 (permalink)  
 
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I think andrasz has hit the nail on the head. And whether or not Boeing also believes the loss was due to willful human action (as oppposed to any technical malfunction or pilot error, or combination of those) they are unlikely to spend large amounts of their own money to continue searching.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 16:56
  #11793 (permalink)  
 
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I think andrasz has hit the nail on the head. And whether or not Boeing also believes the loss was due to willful human action (as oppposed to any technical malfunction or pilot error, or combination of those) they are unlikely to spend large amounts of their own money to continue searching.
Another view

Similar to the China Air B747 freighter whose search for the critical pieces in the ocean dragged on and off. Some of us felt not enough effort was being expended by governments . In the end we were damn unhappy when the El Al freighter crashed before the China Air one got sorted out. We vowed never again !!!

Now I'm not being critical of the MH370 search to date but there is this knawing feeling that mysteries are not good for the industry and if we have another it will have much larger repercussions.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 17:27
  #11794 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris Scott
Quote from .Scott:
"...the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight."
Quote from DaveReidUK:
"Once the engines quit, the question of whether or not the aircraft was flying on autopilot up to that point becomes academic."

I would go further than Dave. Any suggestion of a qualified and current B777 pilot setting the aircraft down in one piece in the Southern Indian Ocean, even if all systems were available, and the aircraft subsequently sinking intact would also lack credibility. As previously commented, this was not the River Hudson. There would be debris, regardless of the circumstances of the impact, and some pieces would float better and for longer than others.

Following the discovery of a piece of flaperon on the island of Reunion, the subsequent arrival of debris on the eastern coasts of Africa and/or Madagascar was predicted on the MH370 thread. The problem was how to locate and identify the larger pieces before they were put to good use by those residing on those shores.
I wasn't suggesting any specific mechanism for the plane flying other than straight and level. Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.
From what I've read, they are quite certain that at the end of the flight, there was a high-speed impact with the ocean.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 17:32
  #11795 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by .Scott
I wasn't suggesting any specific mechanism for the plane flying other than straight and level. Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.
From what I've read, they are quite certain that at the end of the flight, there was a high-speed impact with the ocean.
Is the S&L theory incompatible with a high-speed impact?

Note that we can't be certain that the aeroplane *insn't* in the area predicted by the S&L theory, because large parts of that area have a sea bed comprised of a layer of ooze that is up to tens of metres thick. Wreckacge setting on that would disappear below the surface and become hidden from view within a few days.

PDR
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 18:36
  #11796 (permalink)  
 
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The all too important question is what have we learned from this costly disaster. I would suggest, the salutary lesson in this instance is the need for an expedient means of at least finding it`s wreckage, even if we cannot find why it crashed. Has anything been done about that.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 20:03
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FWIW my own view is that the wreckage is probably "undiscoverable" by virtue of being either in a steep valley on the sea bed or (more probably) under a few dozen feet of seabed ooze.
That doesn't seem consistent with the wrecks and other debris found on the seabed during the search. As far as I remember, they used an AUV to check the areas the ship's sonar couldn't see into, and the shipwreck debris is still out in the open after sitting on the seabed for centuries.

Edit: of course, I guess there could be other shipwrecks in that are that we didn't see because they did sink.

Last edited by MG23; 17th Jan 2017 at 20:39.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 20:11
  #11798 (permalink)  
 
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Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.
1. As I understand it, there was no 'straight and level theory', except in the very early days. Later, they modelled a wide variety of routes at different speeds and altitudes and variations of speed and altitude to find the ones that best matched the satellite data.

2. The big question all along has not really been at what latitude it made the final transmission, but how close to that position it hit the sea. the assumption has been that it spiralled in close to the arc of the final transmission, but it could have travelled tens of miles from there before finally crashing. It may be sitting on the seabed half a mile outside the area that's been searched, and it seems likely based on the debris analysis that it's within a few miles of the area already searched at the north of the search area.

My personal guess is that someone on board set it to fly to the south pole or a convenient waypoint nearby, and we could probably find it by searching a relatively small area around the final arc that coincides with those course settings. I remember someone pointing out early on that a setting of 180 degrees at constant speed closely matched all the ping arcs.

If this is the end, hopefully we'll be able to crowdsource a drone search in a decade or two.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 20:32
  #11799 (permalink)  
 
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Catalog of Found Debris

One of the items is an interior cabin panel from the R1 door area - indicative of fuselage breakup. One would think that there would have been a debris field similar to AF447, but the searches may not have covered that area before the debris dispersed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...s-found-so-far
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 20:36
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One would think that there would have been a debris field similar to AF447, but the searches may not have covered that area before the debris dispersed.
Actually, one of the arguments for the aircraft being at the north end of the current search area is that no debris from that area was likely to have drifted into any of the areas searched for debris after the crash.
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