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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 17th Jan 2017, 14:47
  #11781 (permalink)  
 
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Northwest Flight 2501, June 23, 1950 in Lake Michigan has never been found.

http://archive.jsonline.com/news/wis...249370671.html
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 14:50
  #11782 (permalink)  
 
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Why a search for 2 years over a huge area without even talking about or checking such relatively easy check&reject alternatives.
Unfortunately when there's limited resources, then every day spent checking "some other area" will necessarily take away from time checking within the "most probable area".

So the best strategy is to maximize your resources by searching areas according to the best probabilities.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 14:51
  #11783 (permalink)  
 
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It will probably show up eventually, Star Dust was found over 60 years after vanishing.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 15:10
  #11784 (permalink)  
 
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"Star Dust was found over 60 years after vanishing."

Quite. Emerging from a glacier...
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 17:22
  #11785 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect that the decision to call the search off was likely influenced by a common understanding of the parties to investigation that the loss of the aircraft was due to "willful human inputs" as already indicated in the preliminary report. Accepting this scenario, it is highly unlikely that the FDR/CVR would reveal anything that is not already known, both can easily be stopped by pulling a CB, and likely were just like the transponder. I would assume that were there any scenarios that would indicate any technical malfunction (like AF447) , there would be a much greater incentive to find the wreck whatever it takes.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 17:38
  #11786 (permalink)  
 
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I think andrasz has hit the nail on the head. And whether or not Boeing also believes the loss was due to willful human action (as oppposed to any technical malfunction or pilot error, or combination of those) they are unlikely to spend large amounts of their own money to continue searching.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 17:56
  #11787 (permalink)  
 
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I think andrasz has hit the nail on the head. And whether or not Boeing also believes the loss was due to willful human action (as oppposed to any technical malfunction or pilot error, or combination of those) they are unlikely to spend large amounts of their own money to continue searching.
Another view

Similar to the China Air B747 freighter whose search for the critical pieces in the ocean dragged on and off. Some of us felt not enough effort was being expended by governments . In the end we were damn unhappy when the El Al freighter crashed before the China Air one got sorted out. We vowed never again !!!

Now I'm not being critical of the MH370 search to date but there is this knawing feeling that mysteries are not good for the industry and if we have another it will have much larger repercussions.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 18:27
  #11788 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris Scott View Post
Quote from .Scott:
"...the debris found to date indicates that the collision with the sea was in uncontrolled flight."
Quote from DaveReidUK:
"Once the engines quit, the question of whether or not the aircraft was flying on autopilot up to that point becomes academic."

I would go further than Dave. Any suggestion of a qualified and current B777 pilot setting the aircraft down in one piece in the Southern Indian Ocean, even if all systems were available, and the aircraft subsequently sinking intact would also lack credibility. As previously commented, this was not the River Hudson. There would be debris, regardless of the circumstances of the impact, and some pieces would float better and for longer than others.

Following the discovery of a piece of flaperon on the island of Reunion, the subsequent arrival of debris on the eastern coasts of Africa and/or Madagascar was predicted on the MH370 thread. The problem was how to locate and identify the larger pieces before they were put to good use by those residing on those shores.
I wasn't suggesting any specific mechanism for the plane flying other than straight and level. Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.
From what I've read, they are quite certain that at the end of the flight, there was a high-speed impact with the ocean.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 18:32
  #11789 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by .Scott View Post
I wasn't suggesting any specific mechanism for the plane flying other than straight and level. Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.
From what I've read, they are quite certain that at the end of the flight, there was a high-speed impact with the ocean.
Is the S&L theory incompatible with a high-speed impact?

Note that we can't be certain that the aeroplane *insn't* in the area predicted by the S&L theory, because large parts of that area have a sea bed comprised of a layer of ooze that is up to tens of metres thick. Wreckacge setting on that would disappear below the surface and become hidden from view within a few days.

PDR
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 19:36
  #11790 (permalink)  
 
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The all too important question is what have we learned from this costly disaster. I would suggest, the salutary lesson in this instance is the need for an expedient means of at least finding it`s wreckage, even if we cannot find why it crashed. Has anything been done about that.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 21:03
  #11791 (permalink)  
 
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FWIW my own view is that the wreckage is probably "undiscoverable" by virtue of being either in a steep valley on the sea bed or (more probably) under a few dozen feet of seabed ooze.
That doesn't seem consistent with the wrecks and other debris found on the seabed during the search. As far as I remember, they used an AUV to check the areas the ship's sonar couldn't see into, and the shipwreck debris is still out in the open after sitting on the seabed for centuries.

Edit: of course, I guess there could be other shipwrecks in that are that we didn't see because they did sink.

Last edited by MG23; 17th Jan 2017 at 21:39.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 21:11
  #11792 (permalink)  
 
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Only that the straight and level theory for those hours over the Indian Ocean has taken a hit.
1. As I understand it, there was no 'straight and level theory', except in the very early days. Later, they modelled a wide variety of routes at different speeds and altitudes and variations of speed and altitude to find the ones that best matched the satellite data.

2. The big question all along has not really been at what latitude it made the final transmission, but how close to that position it hit the sea. the assumption has been that it spiralled in close to the arc of the final transmission, but it could have travelled tens of miles from there before finally crashing. It may be sitting on the seabed half a mile outside the area that's been searched, and it seems likely based on the debris analysis that it's within a few miles of the area already searched at the north of the search area.

My personal guess is that someone on board set it to fly to the south pole or a convenient waypoint nearby, and we could probably find it by searching a relatively small area around the final arc that coincides with those course settings. I remember someone pointing out early on that a setting of 180 degrees at constant speed closely matched all the ping arcs.

If this is the end, hopefully we'll be able to crowdsource a drone search in a decade or two.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 21:32
  #11793 (permalink)  
 
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Catalog of Found Debris

One of the items is an interior cabin panel from the R1 door area - indicative of fuselage breakup. One would think that there would have been a debris field similar to AF447, but the searches may not have covered that area before the debris dispersed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...s-found-so-far
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 21:36
  #11794 (permalink)  
 
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One would think that there would have been a debris field similar to AF447, but the searches may not have covered that area before the debris dispersed.
Actually, one of the arguments for the aircraft being at the north end of the current search area is that no debris from that area was likely to have drifted into any of the areas searched for debris after the crash.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 22:16
  #11795 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wheels_down View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rch-called-off

What next I wonder? How many years or decades until technology is developed to find it?

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetal...0-search-2017/
The cost of installing all ETOPS aircraft with a detachable, solar-powered transmitter on a floating balloon which could be barostatically released at below say 20 metres, would surely be less than the incredible cost of the search for MH370 which still has produced nil result.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 22:37
  #11796 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks for the link, RBF.

The detached cabin interior trim-panel from Door 1R, which is presumably the forward (service) door on the R/H side, and apparently confirmed as from MH370, suggests that the fuselage did not remain intact with all doors closed. Either the fuselage broke up, or the door opened as a random result of the impact of an unpressurised cabin, or a door-assist (opening) system was triggered, or someone opened the door after a relatively successful ditching. The latter seems unlikely.

Regarding fuselage breakup, this would have exposed most or all of the cabin trim panels to the elements. In that event I suggest that the finding of a door trim-panel would be less likely than panels from the rest of the cabin. It seems likely, therefore that Door 1R opened.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 22:54
  #11797 (permalink)  
 
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From what I remember, other pieces of what could be cabin debris have been found (e.g. what appears to be part of a seat back), but they're not conclusively linked to MH370. But that's an interesting theory about the door.

Edit: the possible seat back panel is shown here: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37820122
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Old 18th Jan 2017, 04:04
  #11798 (permalink)  
 
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Mustafagander

I assume there were no relatives of yours or close family members on this aircraft. In my opinon, you made a rather silly remark without giving it much thought first. Yes, the search did cost a great deal & unfortunately it did have to stop sometime I suppose. However what would you have done, had you been in charge? Have you no thought for the families of all those who so sadly perished.

Last edited by kaikohe76; 18th Jan 2017 at 08:58.
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Old 18th Jan 2017, 04:53
  #11799 (permalink)  
 
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Personally, I wonder if the scenario of some kind of aircraft damage (say, caused by an O2 bottle fire) that affected the flying characteristics of the aircraft, without it a being a major impediment, was considered in the flight path projections?

This would have the effect of shortening the calculated total flight distance - and this figure appears to me to be the singular major "rubbery" factor that has impacted on the success of the search.

If the total flight distance was say, 10% less than the "best projection", this obviously puts the aircraft well North of the designated search area - and the MH370 debris finds around Mauritius most certainly point to a more Northerly crash location.
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Old 18th Jan 2017, 09:19
  #11800 (permalink)  
 
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I assume there were no relatives of yours or close family members on this aircraft. In my opinon, you made a rather silly remark without giving it much thought first.
But he's got a point, why must Australia pay at all? It was a Malaysian aircraft and passengers were mostly Chinese, frankly it is China which is now such a large economy that should pick up the tab or even carry on the search at their own expense.
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