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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 7th Oct 2016, 09:47
  #11741 (permalink)  
 
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Or a Samsung like battery fire in the most inconvenient of places .....
Or aliens.

Pretty much all of the recorded evidence points towards deliberate (human) intervention. Ockham’s Razor and all that.

FullWings ... whilst your summary might well be correct, it would be appropriate to show respect for those who died and their families.
I wish this crash had never happened and that those involved were still alive. However, facts indicate that it did and they aren’t. Is the amount of effort and expense still going into the search for MH370 going to be worth it in terms of saving future lives or providing answers we don’t know already? IMO probably not. That has nothing to do with “respect” which is a rather nebulous cultural concept to begin with...
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Old 7th Oct 2016, 09:48
  #11742 (permalink)  
 
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An on-board fire would not explain why it was where it was.
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Old 2nd Nov 2016, 01:58
  #11743 (permalink)  
 
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MH370 ATSB Update 2nd Nov

So the saga rolls on....


A new report by Australian investigators into the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 suggests the aircraft's flaps were not extended when it crashed, effectively ruling out the possibility of a controlled descent into the Indian Ocean.

An analysis of data associated with the plane's final communications to and from the satellite was also "consistent with the aircraft being in a high and increasing rate of descent at that time", the Australian Transport Safety Bureau advised.

The findings, presented in a report released on Wednesday, are significant because they cast doubt on the "controlled descent" theory being pushed by some observers and elements of the media. Instead, they support the theory that the plane entered an uncontrolled dive when it ran out of fuel over the Indian Ocean.

Analysis of debris from the plane's right wing, confirmed to belong to MH370, found some of the damage was "consistent with the flaps in the retracted position", leading investigators to conclude "the right outboard flap was most likely in the retracted position at the time it separated from the wing". The right flaperon was most likely at or close to the neutral position at the time of the crash, the report said.

In the controlled descent scenario, a rogue pilot – most likely the captain, Zaharie Ahmad Shah – was at the controls and conscious when the flight with 239 souls on board hit the water somewhere in the vast Indian Ocean. In a controlled ditching, the plane could have flown further and crashed south of the current search area.

The Transport Safety Bureau previously said that if the wreckage was not found in the current search area, the next most likely scenario was that someone was at the controls and glided the plane beyond the current area. The bureau's critics have argued it should have accepted the likelihood of this rogue pilot possibility from the beginning, but the latest finding backs the bureau's favoured hypothesis.

Prior to the release of the report, the head of the Transport Safety Bureau's search effort Peter Foley indicated the analysis of the flap position would be crucial to understanding the flight's final minutes and whether investigators were looking in the right place.

"The rate of descent combined with the position of the flap, if it's found that it is not deployed, will almost certainly rule out either a controlled ditch or glide," he said in August. "If it's not in a deployed state, it *validates, if you like, where we've been looking."

It is not possible to rule out the rogue pilot theory completely, as a person could have deliberately diverted the plane and allowed it to enter an uncontrolled descent when it ran out of fuel.

Local and international experts are meeting in Canberra this week to discuss the future of the search effort, which has been led by Australia. It is expected the search will be extended, most likely north to the 34th parallel, with the ABC reporting the Transport Safety Bureau wants another $30 million to continue its efforts.

Transport Minister Darren Chester said Wednesday's report contained important information on "what we believe" happened to MH370, and this week's summit would "inform the remainder of the search effort, and develop guidance for any future search operations".

MH370 disappeared from radar in March 2014 during a scheduled night-time flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. So-called "handshake" signals between the aircraft and satellites revealed the plane flew on for hours on an arc over the Indian Ocean.

So far, more than 20 items of debris of interest to the investigation team have been found off the coasts of Africa and Madagascar, and the islands of Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues. But most major parts of the wreckage continue to elude search teams.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politi...01-gsfxvo.html
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Old 2nd Nov 2016, 02:05
  #11744 (permalink)  
 
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Here is the ATSB report referenced in the Sydney Morning Herald article:

http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5771773...e_2nov2016.pdf
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Old 2nd Nov 2016, 03:00
  #11745 (permalink)  
 
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WSJ on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Likely in Steep Dive Before Crash - WSJ

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Likely in Steep Dive Before Crash

Examination of wing flap debris shows it likely wasn’t extended when plane entered ocean
...As well as physical debris, the report drew on recent analysis by Australian defense scientists of burst frequency signals from Flight 370 to satellites which indicated the aircraft had been descending fast, likely in an automated series of swooping dives called fugoids.
“Additional analysis of the burst frequency offsets associated with the final satellite communications to and from the aircraft is consistent with the aircraft being in a high and increasing rate of descent at the time,” the report said....
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Old 2nd Nov 2016, 03:04
  #11746 (permalink)  
 
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Engineering analyses, as diligent and well founded with appropriate assumptions as they may be, will never explain the potential motives and actions of individuals unseen by the rest of us.

I don't believe that the ATSB analysis and investigation is likely to conclude along the lines of deliberate action by the pilot/s in control at the time of the incident to ditch the aircraft for other than emergency reasons. That sort of conclusion moves into potential criminal intent, which is a matter for police/coronial authorities to adjudicate upon.

The technical authorities, like the ATSB, is where the expert analysis investigation rules out other possible/reasonable reasons in the technical/operational realm.

So it seems the aircraft is not likely to have descended in a controlled manner as analysis/inspection of some of the flight control system components recovered do not support the 'controlled descent' hypothesis.

As disturbing as it sounds, I personally believe, and have for a long time, that the aircraft's descent was very rapid and very steep and it entered the water in that attitude and dove very deep. Only the 'flimsiest' of secondary and tertiary external structures would have been at risk of breaking off in that sort of instance, where the vehicle enters the water in the most 'streamlined' orientation possible. And this, I propose, is what we appear to have seen with the debris that's been recovered and the state/condition that it is in.

On a relatedasdie,, aerodynamics and fluid dynamics are two very closely related diciplines and the study and design of vehicles operating in those environments are very similar. In fact we treat the air that aircraft fly in very much like a fluid with similar properties and characteristics.
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Old 2nd Nov 2016, 10:19
  #11747 (permalink)  
 
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complete overview of 22 items MH370 confirmed/under investigation

The 2 Nov ATSB update provides a link to a very interesting complete overview by the Malaysian authorities of the 22 (sic!) items found so far, that are either confirmed to be from MH370 or under investigation.

Didn't know for instance that last August they found a vertical stabiliser panel on a Mozambique beach. One can clearly distinguish part of the red coloured Malaysian logo, which suggests its from somewhere midway up the vertical stabiliser.

http://www.mh370.gov.my/phocadownloa...014Oct2016.pdf

P.S. Apologies for posting this as a new thread, as the main thread is closed
Attached Images
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 05:52
  #11748 (permalink)  
 
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MH370 Officials: Crash Site Could Be North of Search Area

From the Associated Press:

MH370 Officials: Crash Site Could Be North of Search Area

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
DEC. 20, 2016, 12:30 A.M. E.S.T.

SYDNEY — For two years, a handful of ships have diligently combed a remote patch of the Indian Ocean west of Australia in a $160 million bid to find Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. On Tuesday, investigators made what was surely a painful admission: They have probably been looking in the wrong place.

The latest analysis by a team of international investigators concluded that the vanished Boeing 777 is highly unlikely to be in the current search zone and may instead be in a region farther to the north. But though crews are expected to finish their deep sea sonar hunt of the current search area next month, the possibility of extending the search to the north appeared doubtful, with Australia's transport minister suggesting the analysis wasn't specific enough to justify continuing the hunt.
More here: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016...lane.html?_r=0
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 07:07
  #11749 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Airbubba View Post
The latest analysis by a team of international investigators concluded that the vanished Boeing 777 is highly unlikely to be in the current search zone and may instead be in a region farther to the north.
so, what? don't tell me.

Where the "pings" were originally heard by the Chinese patrol boat Haixun 01?
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 07:42
  #11750 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps this might help:-
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5772119...n_driftv29.pdf
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 13:48
  #11751 (permalink)  
 
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I find it incredible that, after nearly 3 years since the loss of MH370 - amid vast amounts of calculations, discussions and mapping - there has been a "revision" to a new potential location, further North along the 7th arc.

For so much MH370 debris to turn up around Mauritius, this has to be the best indicator of a more Northerly crash location.
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 14:28
  #11752 (permalink)  
 
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It clearly shows the crash location is to the north of the areas searched to date.

Or perhaps to the south.

Or maybe to the east.

Of course it could easily be to the west as well...
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 15:53
  #11753 (permalink)  
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Let's keep this discussion about the search, please

For reference, the original MH370 thread is here. Please, let's not rehash that whole thread in discussing search for (and the long-hoped-for finding of) that lost aircraft.
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 19:19
  #11754 (permalink)  
 
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Jeez!

Completely agree, T28B. Before the first boat put oars in the water on this search, I said that the whole thing smelled like a boondoggle. The search area(s) was/were determined using some imprecise science and educated guesses, with more exact scientific methods and equipment used toward the final phase of each search "episode".

This is completely bassackwards. Logic says that you use precise, known, and reliable methods at the beginning (of a search process, logic process, problem solving process, whatever), and you "guess" or "reckon" toward the end of each process, having narrowed the field of possible outcomes.

FWIW, send everybody home for the holidays, and tell 'em not to come back. My respects to all the searchers and the families of the missing.
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 20:43
  #11755 (permalink)  
 
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Might be a good time to revisit the Curtin hydrophone noise. Which seem to suggest a point in the middle of the IO.

To me, the investigation discarded this noise too quickly and placed too much weight on the Inmarsat pings.
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 22:30
  #11756 (permalink)  
 
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Realistically, what is there to be gained from finding the wrechage this long after the crash ?
If the recorders can be recovered are they still likely to be readable ?
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 22:43
  #11757 (permalink)  
 
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> If the recorders can be recovered are they still likely to be readable ?

If they were readable after whatever happened to them when the aircraft went down, they are likely to be readable now. The memory should still be intact even if the enclosures have been damaged by submersion in the deep ocean.
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 23:48
  #11758 (permalink)  
 
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The authorities have been using the tried and true SWAG method - Scientific Wild A$$ Guess.
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 06:20
  #11759 (permalink)  
 
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BREAKING: Australia ceases MH370 Search

The search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has come to an end with passengers’ families being informed that the effort to find the plane has been suspended.

Next of kin were told in an emailed statement on Tuesday that Australian authorities’ underwater search of 120,000 sq km in the southern Indian ocean had concluded without success.

The search had been ongoing for more than two years.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rch-called-off

What next I wonder? How many years or decades until technology is developed to find it?

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetal...0-search-2017/
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Old 17th Jan 2017, 06:27
  #11760 (permalink)  
 
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MH370 Search 'Suspended'

Another milestone in the saga:

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370: underwater search called off

Wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 might never be found after suspension of underwater search

The search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has come to an end with passengers’ families being informed that the effort to find the plane has been suspended.

Next of kin were told in an emailed statement on Tuesday that Australian authorities’ underwater search of 120,000 sq km in the southern Indian ocean had concluded without success.

The search had been ongoing for more than two years.

The MH370 Tripartite Joint Communiqué seen by the Guardian was co-signed by the transport ministers of Malaysia, China and Australia, representing the three countries involved in the search. It was made public at 2pm Malaysia time.

“Today the last search vessel has left the underwater search area. Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has not been located in the 120,000 square-kilometre underwater search area in the southern Indian Ocean,” it read.

“Despite every effort using the best science available, cutting edge technology, as well as modelling and advice from highly skilled professionals who are the best in their field, unfortunately, the search has not been able to locate the aircraft.

“The decision to suspend the underwater search has not been taken lightly nor without sadness.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rch-called-off

The MH370 Tripartite Joint Communiqué:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lled-off#img-2
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