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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 28th May 2014, 17:09
  #10801 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Propduffer
I don't know what the circle represents, but we can see the 'MH370' track before and after the circle on a (gustimated) 295 degree heading. So the circle isn't where the track was lost. If you look closely at the MH370 track you'll see a series of dots that presumably indicate the sweeps of a search radar.
If you notice the top of that image, it claims that the radar track is from Pulau Perak. I'm not familiar with that part of the world, so I looked it up on Wikipedia. Pulau Perak is a very small island at 5° 40′ 50″ N, 98° 56′ 27″ E (5.680556, 98.940833). It does not even appear (at least to me) on Google Maps satellite view. I was able to see a rough image of it on Yahoo Maps. Pulau Perak appears to be very close to the flight path that was tracked from Butterworth. In other words, the aircraft transited above the highest beam angle of the military radar there. That is likely why there are no returns. It is possible that the white circle represents an internal limit which the radar there cannot see unless the return is from something quite low in altitude (when that close).
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Old 28th May 2014, 17:11
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Originally Posted by Propduffer
I don't know what the circle represents, but we can see the 'MH370' track before and after the circle on a (gustimated) 295 degree heading. So the circle isn't where the track was lost. If you look closely at the MH370 track you'll see a series of dots that presumably indicate the sweeps of a search radar.
As previously stated, the circle represents the track where no radar returns were received

look inside the circle and you will see two solid lines which I take to indicate airways. On the upper of these two airways there can be seen a series of dots which I also take to be representations of radar sweeps.
I see white lines. I still see no dots.

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 28th May 2014 at 18:45.
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Old 28th May 2014, 17:39
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@SFgeek
I plot the center of the circle to be about: 6°16'16.02"N 97°49'29.62"E.

BTW the Malaysian radar antenna that tracked MH370 during this part of the flight is the Polu Pinang Radar at 5°25'28.70"N 100°15'2.89", it is on a peak of at least 800 meters height.
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Old 28th May 2014, 17:44
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About the photo with the radar returns.
Do the green "things" not added for a better viewing, but text lines completly pixelised? It seems (to me) all those green "things" are horizontal on the right of yellow dots.
Just a tought, but perhaps someone has a better picture? Could it be time and altitude?
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Old 28th May 2014, 17:53
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I see no radar sweep dots either.

But I just came to the same realization as Shadoko - most of the greenish-yellow dots in that screenshot are not tracks but pixelized text labels.

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Old 28th May 2014, 17:54
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@Shadodo

That picture has more detail that is noticeable at this resolution.
Put it into windows picture viewer and zoom in on it.

@hamster3null
I have been ignoring the greenish yellow smudges.
You're probably right they are remnants of text.
The dots that mark the track are there in the midst of the smudges.
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Old 28th May 2014, 18:13
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The plotted positions before the white circle appear not to be on a drawn flight path, but those after it are.


Obviously it is only a short section between waypoints so could appear on many different standard routes.


Why would the plane go from flying off the beaten track to flying on it again?
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Old 28th May 2014, 18:14
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propduffer/pontius. the airway passing through the circle is N571 and the airway below it is B466. the dots look to me to be man-made. each one is accompanied by a label and where many labels are close to each other, they overlap and appear to cause the green "track "effect. the labels appear to have 5 characters, and they appear to be different for each dot. the only one I can make out ends in - - - TA. possible that dots represent received aircraft blips and MAF have appended a label to each one... pity label for the long arrow pointing to "track" is obscured by someone's camera...

Last edited by portmanteau; 28th May 2014 at 18:28.
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Old 28th May 2014, 18:20
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Portmanteau, I thought the small greenish text labels were coordinates.
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Old 28th May 2014, 18:31
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Green Smudges

These are time labels.
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Old 28th May 2014, 18:42
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On this picture, the white arrow label is visible :
http://tmfassociates.com/blog/wp-con...jing-event.jpg
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Old 28th May 2014, 19:21
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Time Labels

See http://i.imgur.com/N0MWBCK.jpg
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Old 28th May 2014, 19:38
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IMO the circle is just a circle in the picture to show the holow in the path
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Old 28th May 2014, 20:01
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gritty, back to my explanation, was it below the radar horizon in the circle and then climbed?
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Old 28th May 2014, 20:09
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The airplane could have made the distance from IGARI to the last plot at around 500 kts ground speed only. Distance about 494 NM, flying time a little less than 1 hr.
If it flew lower for a longer period it could not fly such a high ground speed value.
Air density and physics do not allow that.
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Old 28th May 2014, 20:17
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I suspect a 15 wind component at 200mb level.
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Old 28th May 2014, 20:39
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@threemiles

That's not how I plot it. You must have the flight passing over Penang, I don't think it went there.

My first leg is from IGARI to Kota Bharu (90nm) at mach .84 (or a tad more)
I place MH370 over Kota Bharu at 1:33 local time.

My second leg is from Kota Bharu to 5°39'12.74"N 101° 7'2.61"E (74nm) at 340kts. I plot it arriving there at 1:46.

My third leg is from 5°39'12.74"N 101° 7'2.61"E, where I believe a turn was made towards MEKAR. From here the A/C regained altitude and I plot the average speed for that leg (290nm) as 470kts which gets the A/C to the area of MEKAR by 2:22 local time.

I would appreciate a review of these plots. I'll post a Google Earth KML file showing this flight scenario as soon as I have it cleaned up and ready for prime time.

@Pontis
I didn't factor in winds. But I believe they were tailwinds during the Malacca leg. Maybe you can help me there.

Last edited by Propduffer; 28th May 2014 at 20:58.
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Old 28th May 2014, 20:51
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DrPhillipa

Also would one emergency land a T7 in the dark at Penang without comms from the South West or from the North East?
R/W 04 has VOR/DME/ILS, R/W 22 has VOR/DME/NDB so an approach from the South West for 04 would be much preferred.
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Old 29th May 2014, 00:10
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Now that the USN have made their statement, if it is accurate, the best we can hope for is that eventually some wreckage/baggage/flotsam will appear on a coastline somewhere, (and be found), then the oceanographers will take over and back track the known currents etc. Right now science would appear to be out the door.
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Old 29th May 2014, 00:14
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Well looks like the Indian Ocean search was a giant waste of time.

A series of pings detected in the southern Indian Ocean and originally believed to have come from missing Malaysia Airlines jet MH370 are now thought to have been emitted from either the searching ship itself or equipment used to detect the pings, a US Navy official says.

Michael Dean, the US Navy's director of ocean engineering, told CNN that authorities now believed the four acoustic pings at the centre of the search off the West Australian coast did not come from the missing passenger jet's black boxes, but from a "man-made source".

"Our best theory at this point is that (the pings were) likely some sound produced by the ship ... or within the electronics of the Towed Pinger Locator," Mr Dean told CNN on Wednesday.

"Always your fear any time you put electronic equipment in the water is that if any water gets in and grounds or shorts something out, that you could start producing sound."

He said other countries involved in the massive search for the jet, which disappeared on March 8 with 239 people on board, had also reached the same conclusion.

When the pings were first detected in early April, retired air chief marshal Angus Houston, the head of the search's Joint Agency Co-ordination Centre (JACC), said experts believed the signals were consistent with those of a flight data recorder.

He said the first two pings - detected on April 5 at 4.45pm and at 9.27pm Perth time - had been analysed by the Australasian Joint Acoustic Analysis Centre, based at HMAS Albatross in Nowra, on the NSW south coast.

"The analysis determined that a very stable, distinct and clear signal was detected at 33.331 kilohertz, and that it consistently pulsed at a 1.106-second interval," Mr Houston said at the time.

''They therefore asses that the transmission was not of natural origin, and was likely sourced from specific electronic equipment. They believe the signals to be consistent with the specification and description of a flight data recorder.''

The final two pings were detected on April 8 - at 4.27pm and 10.17pm, Perth time.

But despite an extensive underwater search, no evidence of the plane has been found in the search area in the southern Indian Ocean.

Fairfax Media has contacted JACC for comment.

Read more: Malaysia Airlines jet MH370 pings 'may have come from searching ship'
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