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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 22nd Apr 2014, 19:20
  #10061 (permalink)  
 
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There's little doubt that the engines would be torn from the wings in any controlled ditching attempt as in US1549. They would be on the bottom near the coordinates of the point of impact even if the fuselage remained reasonably intact.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 19:23
  #10062 (permalink)  
 
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Reading Teddy Robinsons post (10167 as I write) I am still of the feeling that

A - The "Authorities" are totally clueless, or B - They are totally clued up & doing everything to appear to be clueless.

For quite some time now, I am unable to decide which version is the reality.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 19:24
  #10063 (permalink)  
 
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We are forgetting that there may well have been debris to begin with, but we were all looking in the wrong place, and a large amount of it will probably have sunk by now.


So perhaps it doesn't have to have been an entirely controlled ditching.


And what was left could well already be on a beach somewhere remote.


Let's not give up hope that we will soon have an answer.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 19:38
  #10064 (permalink)  
 
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Cool Airspace and Radar

The Malaysian narrative supports a number of different scenarios. A steady state flight across Malaysia is one way to "evade" radar (by blending in) and evasive fighter pilot tactics are one way to cause someone watching radar to notice. Per MH370 first turn (Igari), Malaysia military radar might have noticed a offshore inbound unidentified target, but apparently it didn't. The next soonest time for a military alert would have been if ATC had notified Malaysian Air Dispatch and an alarm raised because of no contact . As soon as MH370 left Malaysian airspace, it was somebody else's business. The aircraft might have been seen paralleling borders by Thai or even Indonesian radar, but the aircraft might not have been 'noticed' unless it was headed to or over each's respective airspace. In effect, after 30 minutes this aircraft would have been off radar(and not a 'potential threat'), until and unless, it crossed another country's airspace.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 19:38
  #10065 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tdracer
Right, because the terrorists never target predominately Muslim countries:
I didn't say that. But terrorists apparently don't target Malaysia. If they wanted to they surely would have done so in the past.

Bali attacks were directed primarily at Australian and European tourists and most Balinese are not Muslims. Marriott targets were officially Americans and Australians.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 19:49
  #10066 (permalink)  
 
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The old generation ELTs prior to the introduction of 406Mhz ELTs were, I agree, notoriously unreliable.

However all those that are 406Mhz conform to new specs that were introduced, RTCA DO204 and Eurocae ED62, and spurious signals etc tend to be down to maintenance issues etc.

The type of ELT installed on the Malaysian aircraft is that used on many other Boeing and Airbus aircraft. It is a top of the range model known for the quality of it's construction. Yes, a ditching would certainly provide the de-acceleration forces required to trigger the "g" switch.

Serveral references have been made in the past to the 1992 Air Inter A320 Mont St Odile crash, and the fact that the ELT did not go off in this event. There is an extremely simple explanation as to why no ELT went off, since surprising as it may seem, no Automatic Fixed ELT was installed on that aircraft. Most likely because at the time it was not a mandatory requirement
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 20:24
  #10067 (permalink)  
 
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An inflight breakup WOULD spread debris well over a mile..Ref Pan Am 103...
Most debris was found well within 1.5-2 miles.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 21:16
  #10068 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rampstriker
. . . But terrorists apparently don't target Malaysia. If they wanted to they surely would have done so in the past.
Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator
Non sequitur. There are many countries that have not been targeted and these include Muslim countries popular with western tourists.
Actually, it was more of a tautology

My original point was that the Malaysian perceived threat of a terrorist attack of any sort was low. And an airborne attack on the Petronas Towers, a potent symbol of Malaysian national pride, would make no sense at all for any terrorist organization, especially on a Friday night when it was virtually empty.

Last edited by rampstriker; 22nd Apr 2014 at 21:31.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 21:48
  #10069 (permalink)  
 
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Montreal Convention.
Pilot Suicide/murder. How is that treated ?

In the event he was acting in a "political" manner, is that then terrorism (and hijack) which is treated differently.

I ask as MAS/Malaysian Govt appear to be setting up a "fund" to support relatives (and the issue of Death Certificates).
(my edit. So therefore no payment under the Convention)

Now the defence under the articles could only be "without fault", which points to only one thing (one "probable cause" in the eyes of Malaysian Airlines and their lawyers).

In the issue of "presumptive death" there would be an Inquest ?
Have I missed something here.

Any learned friends ?
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 22:45
  #10070 (permalink)  
 
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Nope

"The magnetic declination is limited to 2 in this area of the world and along the trajectory"


Following a magnetic heading will automatically result it a curved, true course. Nothing to do with declination. Look at a globe to see why.
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 00:26
  #10071 (permalink)  
 
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Could we hope for some news or otherwise from the Australian, British, Malaysian, Chinese and Indian submariners on ?? site ? Keep up the good work
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 00:47
  #10072 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by susier (22nd Apr 2014, 10:33)
I'm inclined to agree with Ornis that they know more than we do, either way.
So either they know it's there, by whatever means (including the pings perhaps - but they certainly have more classified info that we're not party to) and they are looking in the right place, or they know it isn't there, and are looking in the wrong place for some obscure reason to do with obfuscating the truth.
More likely the first.
In which case I believe it's highly likely it will turn up there eventually. If you want to be a conspiracy theorist then that time might be once the geopolitical issues have been mostly ironed out and it's 'safe' to find it...
Originally Posted by captplaystation (22nd Apr 2014, 19:23)
Reading Teddy Robinsons post (10167 as I write) I am still of the feeling that
A - The "Authorities" are totally clueless, or B - They are totally clued up & doing everything to appear to be clueless.
For quite some time now, I am unable to decide which version is the reality.
Is the time for 1 and B coming next week?:

CNN Exclusive: MH370: Australia transport official tells what's next - CNN.com "
Australian officials are hammering out a new agreement put forward by the Malaysian government that will set out critical guidelines in the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane.
.../..."The Australian government is currently considering that proposal from the Malaysians and will respond as quickly as possible," Dolan said. "We hope to have resolved this within the next week." He declined to elaborate further on specific details put forward by the Malaysians, explaining that once finalized, details of the agreement probably would be confidential.../...
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 01:11
  #10073 (permalink)  
 
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Smile Tangled webs

Pontius Navigator: Thank you. Still don't know why one or the other ATC didn't ask MA Dispatch to try contacting MH370; and agree with you the 'origin' of aircraft might have been seen & known, so no threat via military. My additional reasoning: 1) southern arc might be associated with 'pilot' suicide; 2) northern arc suggests a hijacking; 3) the 'Maldives' points to an inflight 'accident/event'.; & 4) a direct act of terrorism doesn't seem to have happened (attack on Kuala Lumpar, Singapore, Jarkata,etc). My conclusion is that the Malaysian narrative seems to be malleably and purposefully inconclusive.
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 05:32
  #10074 (permalink)  
 
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Multiple media resources are once again poking in the above or the "shot down by the Americans" theory!

Seriously??? While I empathise with the relatives on CNN even they are clinging to this hope and I would think the Aussies have done a great job in providing all evidence they have that this aircraft did end it's flight somewhere in the greater geographic area of Australia.

Is there something I am missing?
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 05:55
  #10075 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wannabe Flyer View Post
Is there something I am missing?
Lack of any physical evidence. All the circumstantial evidence we have says it should be on the sea bed around where they're currently searching with the AUV, but nothing's turned up in the right place yet, on the surface or under it.

I strongly suspect it's down there somewhere, but, until something is found, people will continue to consider other possibilities.
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 07:07
  #10076 (permalink)  
 
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The Aussies are doing a fantastic job imho but there will be background information that they are unable to share.


I think this is what makes it frustrating.


There is always going to be a hierarchy of information in a situation involving various countries and agencies, as well as various conflicting interests.


So trying to adjust our own mental settings, if you like, to take into account the fact that NOT all the relevant information is available to us, quite deliberately, is really almost certain to lead to degrees of conspiracy theory, because we simply don't know where that line is drawn between clarity and obscurity.


And there HAS to be a line, somewhere.
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 07:14
  #10077 (permalink)  
 
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"There is always going to be a hierarchy of information in a situation involving various countries and agencies, as well as various conflicting interests."

Especially where Pine Gap and the US MIGHT be involved.

They might have allowed a book to be written but that doesn't mean nitty gritty current detail is going to be laid out in public.
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 07:39
  #10078 (permalink)  
 
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It's the Southern Hemisphere , very much uncharted waters .
From this it will be a bit more charted . I really hope they are looking in an area that has meaning for the aircraft . I am concerned that we Aus have found nothing. NOTHING!
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 08:21
  #10079 (permalink)  
 
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The major reasons why not a shred of wreckage has been found, are:

1. This is the first B777 out of over 1100 built that has crashed into water - anywhere. Thus we have no real comparisons to figure out how a B777 might behave when run out of motion lotion and then ditched. They're a very robust aircraft, and trying to compare the ditching of the Airbus A320 into the Hudson is trying to compare apples with oranges.

2. I think few very people have much understanding of the sheer vastness of the Indian Ocean. This is an Ocean where you can fly for 10 hrs at 550-600mph and not see a single solitary piece of land - and very few ships. Most shipping travels between Fremantle and Singapore, Japan and China - and only a relatively few go from Fremantle to the ME and India and Europe.

3. If the aircraft ditched in the current search area (as this is still the highest possibility of all the scenarios), any wreckage will have been driven by prevailing winds and currents in a Westerly, or Sth-Westerly direction.
Some permanently buoyant wreckage will possibly be merely circulating in eddies in the mid-Indian Ocean, far beyond any current aerial search area.

Possibly 50% of the initially-floating wreckage will have sunk by now.
In time, perhaps in weeks to come, some small pieces of identifiable wreckage may appear around Mauritius, Reunion, Madagascar, or the Seychelles.
I'm personally amazed that no reward offers for MH370 wreckage, to fisherman in the regions surrounding the Indian Ocean, have been made, to assist in wreckage recovery and ID.

4. I'm of the personal opinion that the Bluefin-21's capabilities are being stretched, and that better equipment is needed.
I feel that dedicated sea-floor mapping ships would be better suited to the search for the wreckage, from here on in.
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Old 23rd Apr 2014, 08:42
  #10080 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by hamster3null View Post
The only thing known about the military radar trace is one screenshot from a press conference back in March.
Thinking about that screen shot.

It was heavily synthesised as the only plot was that of MH370. There must have been other plots but they appear to have been suppressed.

A simple screen shot would have shown the contact at one moment. This short was clearly a composite showing an initial track, a dark period, and then a regain until it ran out of radar range.

What caused the initial 'dark' period?

Either they had no plot for some technical reason or the aircraft was at a medium level and ran out of radar range at that level.

Contact was then gained as the aircraft was climbed to a greater altitude and finally lost at that higher altitude when it was too far from the radar site.
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