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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 20th Apr 2014, 18:43
  #10021 (permalink)  
 
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joy ride:-
<< IF >> one or both of these had been a contributory factor, and assuming substantial recovery of wreckage, would the investigators have any chance of finding evidence of it? Particularly as a windscreen cracked by altitude/pressure changes might resemble one cracked on contact with water.
Without going into the microscopic details, I would reckon a fracture attributed to internal forces (failure with cabin pressurised) and one due to external forces (impact with water) will be pretty evident on close examination.
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Old 20th Apr 2014, 19:27
  #10022 (permalink)  
 
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I really hope I'm wrong but it's not looking good for finding the aircraft in that 10km radius zone. It seems more than 2/3rd has been searched to no avail.

The Malaysians have long labelled the investigation as being a criminal one. One can only assume, it wasn't a knee jerk reaction and that they have solid reason to do so.
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Old 20th Apr 2014, 19:33
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"Bluefin-21 has searched approximately 50 per cent of the focused underwater search area to date."
Search and recovery continues for Malaysian flight MH370
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Old 20th Apr 2014, 23:12
  #10024 (permalink)  
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Confirmed oil not from a plane.
The JACC were a little more non committal than that:

"Preliminary analysis of the sample collected by ADV Ocean Shield has confirmed that it is not aircraft engine oil or hydraulic fluid". (source: JACC website)
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Old 20th Apr 2014, 23:27
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Howard Hughes,
Are you suggesting that the oil is not totally discounted as being from the aircraft and that it could be from cargo? E.g. an electrical transformer ruptured in the crash?
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Old 20th Apr 2014, 23:30
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I notice in the JACC Press release that 11 aircraft are still being used
and this seems to be the case on a daily basis.

Not all the aircraft can drop buoys but are they still searching for debris, pings ????

Any comments ?
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 01:43
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by Terminus: I would say no chance, as a boating person I have had 3 un scheduled swims with smartphones and their behaviour has been identical in salt water, they go off instantly and don't respond to anything,then get hot as they short circuit, the flash comes on then the device finally dies within 30 minutes.
Nevertheless, there is a good chance the non-volatile memory would retain its data which could potentially be recovered. If you'd broken your phone by going for a swim you wouldn't bother because the phone is not economically recoverable - but if it's a question of recovering data for a crash investigation that's another matter.
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 03:06
  #10028 (permalink)  
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Are you suggesting that the oil is not totally discounted as being from the aircraft and that it could be from cargo? E.g. an electrical transformer ruptured in the crash?
I am just pointing out that they have given themselves a little room to move!
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 03:14
  #10029 (permalink)  
 
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Latest JACC media release

Media Release
21 April 2014—am

Up to 10 military aircraft and 11 ships will assist in today's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Today the Australian Maritime Safety Authority has planned a visual search area totaling approximately 49,491 square kilometres. The centre of the search area lies approximately 1741 kilometres north west of Perth.

This morning, Bluefin-21 AUV completed mission eight in the underwater search area. Bluefin-21 has searched approximately two thirds of the focused underwater search area to date. No contacts of interest have been found to date.

The focused underwater search area is defined as a circle of 10km radius around the second Towed Pinger Locator detection which occurred on 8 April.

Bluefin-21 AUV's ninth mission will commence later this morning.

The weather forecast for today has conditions deteriorating, particularly in the north of the search area, as Tropical Cyclone Jack continues its track southwards. Wide spread showers are developing with isolated thunderstorms to the north and east south-easterly winds.
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 08:22
  #10030 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lucille
I really hope I'm wrong but it's not looking good for finding the aircraft in that 10km radius zone. It seems more than 2/3rd has been searched to no avail.
Indeed. This is a bit puzzling but on the other Hand that doesn't necessarily mean they are searching in the totally wrong area.
If the waterfall graphs were the real deal and it wasn't accidentally generated in the measuring device itself (which I hope they are examining), I would say there is very big chance it was from MH370. It looked perfectly constant in amplitude and frequency and the duration of the Signal seemed to match as well.
Natural phenomena won't achieve that in any likelyhood.
However, some querstions remain: Is Bluefin21 working as advertised?
Would it really detect shattered debris in silt?
And more importantly: How far do these signals really travel. Looking at the on/off nature of the detections, it looked more like signals that were channeled over a longer distance, leading to relatively short detection times (in some instances only minutes). At 2kts, a detection of 15 minutes means a length of 0,5 km. Perhaps behaviour of such signals in cold water under high pressure is not really 100% understood, yet.

Anyway, they will look at the results of the scans and be able to decide if Resolution was suffcient to 100% exclude they travelled over it.
Depending on that it would be: Either different Equipment (Abyss? Remus?) or enlarged Search area.

Last edited by henra; 21st Apr 2014 at 08:32.
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 09:10
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Kooljack, thanks for clarification about determining the cause of any windscreen cracks, pretty much what I expected but nice to know!

Anyone know if investigators might be able to determine if the ADIRU software issues discussed here might have contributed?
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 09:23
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Ocean Shield - positions 5 April

The following are the times of ping aquisition as given by Angus Houston following a press request.

#1..5/16:45 WAST (5/08:45 UTC) Duration 2:20
#2..5/21:27 WAST (5/13:27 UTC) Duration 0:13 (return leg)
#3..8/16:27 WAST (8/08:27 UTC)
#4..8/22:17 WAST (8/14:17 UTC)

Does anyone have the AIS data for the 5 April dates?

If so please PM me.

The reason for asking is that:-

(a) the #1 positions do not reflect known tracks.
(b) the #3 & #4 positions appear to be transposed.

None of this will change the positions of the Ocean Shield, but could have an effect on the actual ping (Star) positions. They could shift ~2NM to the east.
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 12:21
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CVRs using SSDs

@Paxboy and Holdatcharlie:

Whether data is recoverable from the digital CVRs depends on a number of factors. If these were normal magnetic media drives, then it would be likely that anything that hadnt been overwritten would be retrievable but also its likely it would need a lot of work to actually get anything constructive out of the data.

However, there are issues if the CVR drives were solid state drives (SSDs). Anyone with any clue of computer forensics should know you cant just plug them in and image as you would normal magnetic media drives. SSDs have a garbage collection function that can run independently of any software, all it needs is to be powered on so your drive can be deleting data in the background faster than your imaging software can collect it. Not good for a computer forensics examiner having to explain why you havent got any data at all.

First question is if SSDs are used in CVRs does the CVR programming have the garbage collection process running in the background while its writing data to the disk to free up disk space? If so, then all you are likely to retrieve is the current length of the recording. If not, then you may be lucky to get partial bits of the recording being overwritten although all that may get you is silence in this case.

Also, one would like to think those designing systems using SSDs are aware of the reliability issues that are being raised about them in certain situations (e.g. power failure). If power fails it can make the drives inoperable and even those supposedly guaranteed against power failures do not seem to live up to their stated reliability looking at some of the research going on.

I dont know much about the CVRs but do they have alternative power sources or backups in case of drive failure during the flight?

Some articles for the techies on the issues with SSDs and data retrieval:
Solid State Drives and Forensic Troubles - WP's Police Tech

The mysteriously disappearing drive: Are power outages killing your SSDs? | ExtremeTech
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 13:45
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CVR recording

CVRs are required to have an independant backup supply that lasts 10mins after main power is removed.

The CVR memory will be discrete memory devices not SSD. As in the discussion above, the software reading and writing memory will be to DO178.
Therefore any and every action (if it was) of an SSD drive would have to be specified and software tested.

The memory devices will always be older technology because every time a device is changed, e.g. size or manufacturer, they have to be re-qualified (crash tested, cooked, shake'n baked). The temperature and g-force is large.

No compression except dynamic on the audio amplitude is allowed. Therefore long spells of no speach will take exactly the same memory as speach. How do you determine what speach or noise, bangs cruches beeps etc you want to record?


The recorder will have the last 2 hours and that is it.
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 14:52
  #10035 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lynw
I dont know much about the CVRs...
Clearly......
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Old 21st Apr 2014, 20:02
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Oil Analysis per JACC Media Release

Re: Oil Analysis:
Quote: I am just pointing out that they have given themselves a little room to move!

Thanks Howard Hughes - Agreed, they have left the door slightly open to revise statement, if they do a further analysis of the oil and results become relevant to the flight ~ my comment was "generalized" and not exactly as worded per JACC media release.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 02:03
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Wreckage moving?

encounters 1 to 3 the plane seemed to be moving south at about 1 knot
.
Maybe it was floating at some great depth or tumbling across the seabed
I really doubt this, but I'd love to hear from a maritime expert.

After a month on the bottom, it's unlikely it would still be tumbling. One would expect it to have reached a resting place. If it's floating submerged... well, that would be a remarkable accidental balance of buoyancy, if possible at all.

Best guess... anomalous sound propagation. Although, it's surprising the detection ranges implied by that. Perhaps the ping detector is more sensitive than is expected for the "specified" detection ranges. Or, perhaps the sound was caught in a duct and thus was subject to a loss less than 1/r^2 spreading and 5db/km absorption.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 03:18
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I really doubt this, but I'd love to hear from a maritime expert.
No expert needed: it's simple physic matter!
If anything sank, it will be less and less buoyant with the pressure increasing. Even if the cabin sank in a whole, and it opened when it crashed on seabed, I don't see anything could be buoyant at ~5000 meters: all things which might float at the sea surface are crushed by the pressure (more than 7000 psi!). Polyethylene and like have an intrinsic density > 1: porous materials with "opened bubbles" are water impregnated and those with "closed bubbles" are crunched beyond floatting possibility. Even organic things which will slowly rot (sorry for the picture...) can't become buoyant with carbon dioxide or methane gassing: CO2 is solvable in water (and if protected from water, CO2 is a liquid at this pressure), and CH4 gives hydrate.
So...

Last edited by Shadoko; 22nd Apr 2014 at 03:36. Reason: Spelling
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 07:09
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Many theories have been put forward and there has been much speculation regarding the fate and final location of MH370. We have heard various reports of the aircraft being tracked on radar (or not) and of it following differing courses at various heights. We have seen an initial and fruitless search in the South China Sea and later, based on satellite info, we saw the search area shifted to the South Indian Ocean where we heard of 'signals' being detected which caused the Malaysian & Australian governments to express their confidence that the remains of MH370 would soon be found.

But, more than seven weeks after the event, it seems that we are no closer to understanding what actually happened to MH370 and are no closer to identifying it's final location.

How can this be?

It has to be time for a fresh look at all the available data and a re-think of the whole situation starting from scratch.
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Old 22nd Apr 2014, 09:31
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Carjockey
... seven weeks ... no closer to understanding what happened ... no closer to identifying it's final location. How can this be? It has to be time for a fresh look at all the available data and a re-think of the whole situation starting from scratch.
Nobody knows what happened but the authorities clearly believe it ended up were they are looking and they know more than we do. The defined area has not been properly examined. If nothing is found either the search wasn't good enough or it isn't there. Time then for the next big decision.
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