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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 13th Apr 2014, 11:07
  #9841 (permalink)  
 
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Its one of the benefits of working for a smaller outfit and regularly flying with the same characters, you can spot if someone has a shift in personality, its usually either work stress, family or relationship based.

The military for obvious reasons, have trauma risk management trained individuals embedded in our staff as a secondary role. Interesting that most individuals taking absence do so as a result of family issues or other home life issues other than exposure to the stuff that goes with the military. They are not trained healthcare professionals but line pilots , copilots and crew who have been given training to identify subtle changes in individual.

Two things need to change:

The attitude of aircrew to aviation medics and in particular reticence to admit mental health issues needs to change.

There also needs to be regulatory protection to allow individuals time off if they need it. Harsh rosters believe are a key cause of mental health issues due to numerous circadian rhythm changes and day/night shift, particularly on long night sectors without augment.

All said from outside the civilian sphere granted. How you manage this in the civilian market will be much more difficult due to the size of organizations. Being taken off the line for mental health should be viewed no differently to blocked ears; very often the time off required is comparable. Until a change in culture and attitude occurs, we will be carrying the same risk with no effective barriers in place.

Good luck explaining that to the Daily Mail/Express and other hack toilet paper rags.
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 12:12
  #9842 (permalink)  
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During my 40 years of aviation career, I had contact with a number of individuals suffering from different degrees of mental behavior problems that the six monthly mandatory medicals could not detect.
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 14:22
  #9843 (permalink)  
 
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The pings heard last week , could they have come from anything else ? by going quiet it equates to the useful battery life of mh370 or is this just a coincidence.
Without the recorder pings now is it still worth looking?
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 17:15
  #9844 (permalink)  
 
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Just on CNN:

The MAS CEO declared during a press conference that the FDR / CVR - ULB maintenance records indicate that the ULB battery due date is June 2014.
At what intervals are the batteries usually changed? In general, how substantial (or how minimal) is the likely dropoff between the projected pinging duration (beyond 30 days) of a newly installed battery versus one due to be replaced soon? (I realize 30 days is the minimum requirement and that individual batteries may differ).

The Batteries have up to 8 years from new until replacement. Dukane allow for some storage though, and so the minimum you will get at point-of-sale is 6 years.
Unfortunaltely for the SAR effort for MAS370, it looks like these batteries (if the June 2014 expiry is correct) are end of life units, meaning that they will not last long beyond their certified 30 Day life.

Last edited by GroundedSpanner; 13th Apr 2014 at 17:18. Reason: Edited Flight No - 170 - 370 - silly boy
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 19:14
  #9845 (permalink)  
 
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I think claiming that an ULB with a standard 30-day battery would still send out signals after 90 days is a mistake. Sure, Teledyne Benthos has a 90-day ULB model ELP362D available, but it only works for 90 days if an optional lithium battery is used. Standard battery life is the same, 30 days only.

http://www.benthos.com/_doc/main/Bro...815__rev_L.pdf (see page 8)
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 21:33
  #9846 (permalink)  
 
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Unfortunaltely for the SAR effort for MAS370, it looks like these batteries (if the June 2014 expiry is correct) are end of life units, meaning that they will not last long beyond their certified 30 Day life.
but we have to read the good news out of it ! if they heard pings with the correct frequency in the current area which started to fade away just after the 30 days limit and are now silent it would be to´much concidence to be something else than really the mh370 blackbox. due to the very limited range of such pings they have now the correct search area to nail down where the wreckage is.

imagine the disaster when they would be some days late here and never hear a ping - they would not know if they are close now or if they are still searchin for the haystack in the whole indian ocean to finally find the needle in it.
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 22:23
  #9847 (permalink)  
 
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mm43 - great work (as usual). Thanks for putting the time in to keep updating the plot.
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 22:41
  #9848 (permalink)  
 
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AIS Report source

I'd be interested to know where the current AIS information is coming from.
I have noticed that Echo and Ocean Shield report at the same time. This suggests that a proxy is providing the reports - perhaps AMSA.
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 22:50
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No news

I think we'er all frustrated by the lack of concrete evidence in this case. Obviously so are the journalists who keep coming up with sensational claims, unconfirmed rumours and technical impossibilities to keep their reports fresh. The FL450 story persists, even though it would appear to be outside the capabilities of a heavily loaded B777. (Was anything ever said about the climb rate or how long it spent up there?) A phone call made by the captain before take-off (already done to death) and now a phone call from the FO - or was it his girlfriend or a family member for whom he bought a phone? Passengers alive and well in Kandahar, or dead over the South China Sea? Claims that the aircraft was flown like a fighter - or was it a Cessna? The fact is, we don't know what the facts are, and journalists are still milking the story in the hope of getting a scoop - if somehow their stories can still fit the data when the wreckage is eventually found, then so much the better for them. As for Capt Zaharie: hero, villain or victim? All we can say for sure is that he was the ranking officer on the flight deck when the flight left KUL. The rest is just hypothesis based on the facts at hand and, increasingly, journalists are cherry-picking the facts at hand to spin a coulourful tale that brings sales, but gets us no closer to the truth. Even worse, they're reporting what other reporters wrote as if it absolves them of responsibility for verifying the source.

Last edited by InfrequentFlier511; 13th Apr 2014 at 22:54. Reason: Bad journalism takes more forms than I first thought.
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 22:56
  #9850 (permalink)  
 
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As long as the media has fresh pretty pictures and video, fresh maps, some fact from JACC and a sensationalist slant they can run as a headline grabber that sells that day's newspapers, they are happy

Australia is providing plenty of fresh pretty pictures / video with plenty of aircraft, ships and people and fresh maps daily looking at what the media is running with.
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 22:56
  #9851 (permalink)  
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VinRouge
Being taken off the line for mental health should be viewed no differently to blocked ears; very often the time off required is comparable. Until a change in culture and attitude occurs, we will be carrying the same risk with no effective barriers in place.
This is correct, reading Andrew Weir, The Tombstone Imperative - The Truth About Air Safety will tell you all you need to know about saving money in the airline biz.
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Old 13th Apr 2014, 23:11
  #9852 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by InfrequentFlier511
The FL450 story persists, even though it would appear to be outside the capabilities of a heavily loaded B777
Perhaps you are taking the 45k figure too literally. The slant range capabilities of radar, particulary at or close to max range aren't accurate to any great degree of precision. To be off a few thousand feet would not be unusual.

A 777 pilot posted in this thread that he had attempted the manovure in a simulator and had gotten to 43,000 and he may have still had some room to go. So the claim seems perfectly valid if you take the information to mean that MH370 soared to max altitude and apparently was at least above 40,000 feet at some time between IGARI and Koto Bharu.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 00:49
  #9853 (permalink)  
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Media Release JACC Today 14th April AM

Media Release
14 April 2014—am

Up to 11 military aircraft, one civil aircraft and 15 ships will assist in today's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Today the Australian Maritime Safety Authority has planned a visual search area totalling approximately 47,644 square kilometres. The centre of the search areas lies approximately 2,200 kilometres north west of Perth.

Today, Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield continues more focused sweeps with the Towed Pinger Locator to try and locate further signals related to aircraft black boxes. The AP-3C Orions continue their acoustic search, working in conjunction with Ocean Shield. The oceanographic ship HMS Echo is also working in the area with Ocean Shield.

There have been no confirmed acoustic detections over the past 24 hours.

The weather forecast for today is south easterly winds with possible showers, sea swells up to 1.5 metres and visibility of three to five kilometres.
I Suppose there will be a news conference today or tomorrow. Is it worth mobilizing the people to start searching the WA coastline yet? Maybe Scout groups or Cadets or similar?
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 02:43
  #9854 (permalink)  
 
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30-day interim report

@ Two to Tango
In the April 5 and April 7 statements (press briefings) by the pertinent Malaysian authority - in which the organization and scope of the investigation were outlined, including the designations of three committees as well as other nations as Accredited Representatives - no reference was made to the requirement of an interim report at the 30-day mark, nor to any plans regarding such report. Link to press briefings:
MH370 Flight Incident | Malaysia Airlines

Most likely, the ICAO authorities will have determined that, procedurally, the 30-day clock has been deferred or suspended, given the known facts of the incident - and given also the many unknowns. Moreover, the statements make reference, in a general way admittedly, to the one-month marker. A good and sensible ruling here would be that, by announcing the detailed structure of the investigation effort at the one-month juncture, Malaysia has substantially complied, on the facts (again, some known, many more unknown). E.g., both press briefings do make reference to ICAO standards relative to other aspects of the organization of the investigation, thus suggesting that ICAO tacitly endorses Malaysia's approach.

If anything official has been issued relative to the 30-day interim report, I plead missing it.

Last edited by WillowRun 6-3; 14th Apr 2014 at 03:28.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 02:49
  #9855 (permalink)  
 
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Apr 14 Search Areas

The sonobuoy portion of today's search, roughly a square 25 km on a side, is centered at roughly 26 S, 101.5 E:

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/release...l/mr_021-4.jpg

That appears to fall on the blue arc representing the 0011 UTC "last ping" in the first set of charts published by AAIB:

http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/u...ern-Tracks.jpg

But it's well to the East of the other two arcs representing the 400 and 450 kt loci on the AAIB chart.

So does that mean they're de-emphasizing the inferences from Doppler?
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 02:50
  #9856 (permalink)  
 
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The GAFA

Is it worth mobilizing the people to start searching the WA coastline yet? Maybe Scout groups or Cadets or similar?
The only way to search this coast is by choper. A foot search would be nice to clean up all the junk from the last 300 years of pollution.
North of Perth 1250km of coast line, no access, no people, no water.
A map will show 4 centres of habitation.
Geraldton pop. 35,500 because it is port but then
Kalbarri pop. 1,500 a holiday resort,
Carnarvon pop. 4,500 they grow bananas and tomatoes,
Exmouth pop 2,500 tourism.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 03:45
  #9857 (permalink)  
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JACC News conference at 12:00 midday Perth time

This link is not geo blocked

Live TV | Astro Awani
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 04:09
  #9858 (permalink)  
 
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Going to stop using pinger locator and start using Bluefin 21 AUV.

He certainly laid out the time frame it takes from surface to bottom to surface and the download of data (4 hours alone !).


Oil slick sounds promising in terms of where it is. Be interesting when the results come back.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 04:11
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Frequency drift

Though mentioned several times, is it actually confirmed that the frequency will drift as the battery condition fades (voltage drop?)?

Or does the oscillator circuit simply stop working below a certain minimum voltage level?
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 04:17
  #9860 (permalink)  
 
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Apr 14 Search Areas

Vinnie Boombatz
The sonobuoy portion of today's search, roughly a square 25 km on a side, is centered at roughly 26 S, 101.5 E:

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/release...l/mr_021-4.jpg

That appears to fall on the blue arc representing the 0011 UTC "last ping" in the first set of charts published by AAIB:

http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/u...ern-Tracks.jpg

But it's well to the East of the other two arcs representing the 400 and 450 kt loci on the AAIB chart.
Today's sonobuoy search area is at/near where the Hai Xun 01 heard the pings on 05 April, and it's basically on the #7 arc.
The aerial search areas are on/near the Inmarsat 400 kt path (red) and one of the NTSB suggested paths. Overlay comparing the search areas: http://i.imgur.com/peWnXpJ.png
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