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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 00:29
  #7361 (permalink)  
 
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But even if the crew is overcome by smoke, hypoxia, etc - then there's the question of how the plane stays in the air for seven hours with a fire burning in the hold.

Thanks jugofpropwash for your response. It’s a valid point and something I thought about while composing the post. I certainly don’t have any answers. There was only a small quantity and maybe, if they caught fire, the fire burned out. You would imagine other parts of the aircraft would have also caught, or other pieces of cargo, so it’s a long bow to draw. As we know strange things have happened in aviation, but that’s hardly an adequate answer either.
The last paragraph was purely my conjecture and I don’t think your point alters the thrust of scenario C – a major event. Time will tell and that will only be known when the orange boxes are found, but I think this scenario is far more plausible than the previous ones.
The other point is the heading. The turn back was in a general south west direction but the last known radar trace was roughly west. It’s the same as above, who knows what was in the FMC? Maybe another waypoint or discontinuity - but purely conjecture again.
I made a spelling mistake and edited this out. It’s been a long time since I’ve visited Pprune and in an excellent example of finger trouble think I deleted my post in the process. With apologies to those who read it in the mean time I’ve copied it here:

I guess I’m no different to a lot of us. Throughout this whole tragic episode my anger has been steadily rising. It’s not just the disinformation but the so called experts who’ve conjured up theories based on what is obviously minimal aviation experience, if any. I can’t begin to imagine how this cuts into those poor people who’ve suffered so much already.

MH370 took off and climbed to cruising level. The ACARS sent out its routine 30 minute report. Shortly after voice communication was lost along with the transponder. The aircraft made a turn and the next 30 minute ACARS report didn’t send. Up until this point the flight operated normally with communication routine. From this three theories have been put forward.

A: Someone from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Somewhere seized the aircraft. This someone had an in depth understanding of the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, was a wiz with the Flight Director Autopilot System and had a deft hand when it came to the Flight Management Computer System.
Manipulating the controls, or forcing the pilots to, the hijacker is flush with a sense of satisfaction - this act of piracy will at last focus the world’s attention on the plight of the PFFTLOS.
There’s only one problem here, which should have been evident after a few days – and certainly after almost two weeks.
To add weight to this theory some expert from the Centre for Who Really Cares suggested the standard FIR handoff was a perfect position to turn the transponder off. As this was a sort of ‘No man’s land’ such a devious act would go unnoticed. We could talk about ATC coordination but suffice to say commercial RPT aircraft don’t fly in no man’s land.

B: A decent family man who’s been a loyal employee and worked his way up to check airman in MAS suddenly decides to make a radical political statement. Sure it was a Murdoch publication (so what would you expect?) but is someone in Australia who leans to Bill Shorten’s philosophy a radical extremist?
The FO is a young guy recently promoted from the 737 to the Tripler. His whole career ahead he will shortly marry.
They didn’t ask to be assigned together and if not acting in concert one would have to disable the other. The cockpit door is the most feasible theory but the question remains.
Here the scenario branches to; I’ve had enough - I can’t take it anymore – goodbye cruel world … in seven hours while in the mean time I sip on a brew or two from the Cameron Highlands.

I can’t believe some of these journalists, but then again pathetic journalism is nothing new. With the transponder out the aircraft disappeared off the radar. Radar’s been around since World War II. The transponder, as we know, identifies the radar blip. How do we know the aircraft flew back across Malaysia? It was tracked on radar. MH370 lost its ident but was the same physical object the radar beams bounced off seconds before.

Our simulator sessions are built on operational experience. Every time we do a sim check what happens? We take off and sometime after we have a problem. The problem is always serious enough so as not to continue the flight. We either return to our departure airport or an alternate. It’s a command decision but if serious enough the QRH is explicit – LAND AT THE NEAREST SUITABLE AIRPORT.
The radios are out, the transponder is out and contrary to first reports the ACARS ceased to function sometime between its standard 30 minute reports. It’s probably not a leap in faith to assume this happened when the other communication devices were lost. Who would continue on to Beijing? Through several FIRs, change altitude into metres, three different STARS assigned during the approach and numerous runway changes to add interest.
If you’ve flown a 737 around Malaysia and the region then you get very familiar with the airways and waypoints. Kuala Lumpur would be OK and Penang would be good. There are others as other pilots have pointed out. It would be a quick entry, if not the airway then a quick WMKK or WMKP. Entered into the FMCS and executed Lateral Nav will point the aircraft in the right direction and if not then Heading Select.
There were earlier reports of a climb to 1900’ above the service ceiling and then a dive to 23,000’. I haven’t heard any more of these and assume it went the same way as the erroneous ACARS report. If an event major enough to knock out the communications system then chances are there’ll be other damage. And so to what I believe is the most plausible theory.

C: The aircraft suffered a major problem. The pilots started working through the checklists and decided on an air return. Whatever the problem it was serious and some with greater aircraft engineering knowledge than me have suggested this led to a depressurisation. Whatever happened incapacitated the pilots. The aircraft flew on in LNAV or HDG SEL and at the MCP/VNAV altitude. If in LNAV and passing over the last waypoint the mode changed to HDG HOLD, as per its design. Returning in this direction was roughly South West and further south into the prevailing westerly winds. For a trip to Beijing there was approximately 8 hours endurance. Some used for climb and then traversing West Malaysia would mean, again approximately, 7 hours.

I didn’t make scenario C up. I added a bit from my local knowledge but it’s been out there. So why today do I open the paper and read the same old crap slandering two people, unable to defend themselves, who more than likely were busting their guts trying to save the aircraft and all on it? Some moron talked about ghosting, as if you could fly a 777 just below another aircraft through all the busy airways, some two-way, funnelling in and fanning out, level changes and the rest.

Now I will go out on a limb. It’s pure conjecture and I don’t pretend to have any expertise but it’s something I’m conscious of as I fly both passenger and freighter aircraft. Nearly every time I fly they’re there. In the cargo machines they can be half the load. In the pax aircraft they’re in the hold. I know they’re allowed and shipped in accordance with all the rules and regulations. But that was the case with the other types, before they brought down the UPS and Asiana 744Fs.
It was the one question I had and it wasn’t until today, buried deep in a secondary article, that this question was answered. A small quantity, all packed, shipped and loaded in accordance with the guidelines. But they were there.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 00:30
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@The Ancient Geek

You have it back to front, the size is 22M (72ft) wide and 13M (42ft) long.

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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 00:30
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GPS through INMARSAT - still no tracking ability

I am asking because our aircraft are fitted with SBAS and depending on where RIMs station are located and if signals from geostationary satellites are being received.For the transmission of the SBAS signals currently some INMARSAT satellites are being used, hence my question are they traceable I.E by INMARSAT.
I can understand the concern, but INMARSAT still uses normal SBAS transponders, like on other satellites. They transmit a pseudo-GPS signal on 1575.42Mhz via a "bent-pipe" transponder. The only thing the satellites receive is the SBAS signal from ground stations, which is then retransmitted via the transponder. Thus you cannot be tracked via this means.

Using a normal SBAS transponder makes sense - because this way you don't need a special receiver just for INMARSAT SBAS.

I will quit banging my head, but darn, I love that icon.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 00:33
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Found this quite useful.
Re the graphic Flash8 posted with the red arcs and various possible flight paths shown -

While the area of highest probability to the south is logical, I feel the one in the north should be further back along the upper arc to the southeast. If the aircraft went north, it most likely did it via a convoluted route that avoided radar and may have been at low altitude. That would take additional time and spend additional fuel - meaning they wouldn't have gotten as far, correct?
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 00:38
  #7365 (permalink)  
 
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You are in danger of being percieved as missing the point entirely

The issue is fire fighting by oxygen starvation

not,

people fighting by oxygen starvation
wild goose - The percentage doesn't matter, the air is still far less dense so there will be less oxygen to feed the fire. If you are in a near vacuum and have 100 "air" molecules and 21 are oxygen, you probably don't have enough to feed combustion, though your ratio is still the same.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 00:44
  #7366 (permalink)  
 
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If I suspend my skepticism that MH370 was accurately tracked by primary through the advertised waypoints to a point North of Aceh, one could theorise the person(s) responsible for an intentional diversion dumped the cabin and waited for depletion of the pax O2 while they/he used the crew O2 supply, which while it runs longer, does eventually run out.

The cockpit masks do have to be put on properly, especially above 25,000'. An improperly fitted mask at 35,000' may not maintain useful consciousness.

Even at 12,500 without supplemental O2 you lose a bunch of IQ points -- and can get confused about which altimeter hand is 1000's and which is 100's
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 00:51
  #7367 (permalink)  
 
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If I recall correctly, it was a couple days ago that officials said that the Captain had made a phone call just before departure, and that they were checking on it. Anyone heard any more on that? I would think that would be something that could be checked and presumably cleared pretty quickly.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 01:26
  #7368 (permalink)  
 
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I spy


The message was phoned through while the press conf was in progress and the dimension was misheard and now corrected.

Read ANY media report and it says this in all the ones I have read.

It is a minor point anyway in the scheme of things as he was only being informed,
The Chinese had already passed it to the Australians for action / acting upon.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 01:28
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Assets committed to searching the southern corridor:

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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 01:30
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OK, so this new object spotted by the Chinese allegedly is 22.5 metres by 13 metres floating in the ocean. Why does the picture in the story "New information...Malaysian Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein shows a note from the Chinese ambassador informing him of new satellite images of possible MH370 debris in the Indian Ocean. Picture: AFP Source: AFP" show a piece of paper stating 20 metres long and 30 metres WIDE??????
Chinese whispers. The amount of info bouncing around from various sources is probably being distorted or sensationalised by the time it hits the pages of the news.

On another note, I would of thought any "wooden pallets" in the cargo would be smashed to smithereens on impact.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 01:34
  #7371 (permalink)  
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If a fuel exhausted aircraft impacted the water from altitude then you just wouldn't have 22 metre pieces of debris still floating. Three metres at a push but not twenty two.

When an aircraft impacts the earth or sea it is not uncommon for the tail to break off and remain intact, more or less, so a large piece floating, like the fin, could still be feasible.


Lawyers: Good luck to the ambulance chasers on this one, the pax are covered by the agreed passenger legal liability insurance, usually stated on the ticket, used to be US$75,000 per pax! It won't be the airline that have to face this one, it will be the insurers, suing the airline for distress etc. is a very long shot as you have to prove the airline is at fault and for that you need indisputable facts, so far there are very few! After all that you have to find a court that will be considered eligible to hear the case and enforce their findings.


Endurance: When estimating endurance based on fuel loaded remember the entire flight probably wasn't at FL350 or similar, there may have been considerable height excursions as well as speed and power changes that will have reduced the overall achievable endurance, 08.11 may well have been just that point.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 01:46
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Originally Posted by felix505
WMKK Kuala Lumpur Control radio traffic 1700-1730Z is available as a downloadable archive.
The transcript suggests there are comms from Malaysia 370 (MH370) at 17:01:14 (+8 01:01:14)
The archived radio recording is silent at the time indicated in the transcript. The other times indicated in the transcript also do not bear these communications, through to 01:19:29.

Each downloadable file is 30 minutes long, so that final transmission would be at 19:29 in that 30 min file.
http://archive-server.liveatc.net/wm...2014-1700Z.mp3
LiveATC.Net ATC Audio Archives

One of the transcript links Revealed: the final 54 minutes of communication from MH370 - Telegraph

Maybe I have got the wrong day...

was it WMKK or WMSA last in contact with MH370?
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 01:58
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@jugofpropwash
If I recall correctly, it was a couple days ago that officials said that the Captain had made a phone call just before departure, and that they were checking on it. Anyone heard any more on that?
MORE details have emerged of a mystery woman who reportedly called the captain of Flight MH370 before take-off, raising fears about his motives.

Phone records of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah have reportedly revealed he took a two-minute phone call from a mystery woman using a mobile phone number obtained under a false identity, The Mail Online reports.

Investigators are understood to be treating it seriously because anyone buying a pay-as-you-go SIM card in Malaysia has to fill out a form giving their identity card or passport number.

This ensures that every number is registered to a traceable person. In investigations into the Captain’s life, police are believed to have traced the number to a shop selling SIM cards in Kuala Lumpur.

It was bought “very recently” by someone who gave a woman’s name – but was using a false identity. The news comes as police are understood to be keen to speak to the Captain’s estranged wife.

After waiting for two weeks, they will now formally interview Faizah Khan following pressure from FBI agents assisting the inquiry, the Mail Online reports.

“The whole world is looking for this missing plane and the person who arguably knows most about the state of mind of the man who captained the plane is being left alone,” said a source close to the FBI team.
http://www.news.com.au/world/missing...-1226862354302
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 02:08
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Phone records of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah have reportedly revealed he took a two-minute phone call from a mystery woman using a mobile phone number obtained under a false identity, The Mail Online reports.
Comprehensive stats state that more than 50% of men have had extramarital affairs. Those affairs are carried out in secret and with deception in mind.
We're all human, after all, and lust and passion affect all of us to varying degrees.
Acquiring a "secret" phone in a false ID, that no-one knows about, is one way of keeping an affair reasonably secret.


The whole world is looking for this missing plane and the person who arguably knows most about the state of mind of the man who captained the plane is being left alone,” said a source close to the FBI team
This statement is 100% spot-on, and I cannot believe this line of enquiry wasn't pounced on immediately. Who else knows a mans true nature better, than his wife of many years?
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 02:09
  #7375 (permalink)  
 
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It seems that the Captain made a phone call to a recently purchased pay as you go number recently purchased under a fake ID

Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Search resumes after Chinese satellites spot object in Indian Ocean | News.com.au
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 02:21
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Originally Posted by kappa
Such flight following position information can be provided by an automatic, un-interruptible upload, once per minute, of GPS-derived latitude/longitude, altitude, heading and speed data, on a persistent VHF link when over-land and via a persistent satellite link when out of VHF range, over water. That is not a lot of data, even for what are 30,000 daily overwater airline flights worldwide.
Saying 'that's not a lot of data' is rather like saying you can stick a $200 SSD in the CVR and record for years. It's not a lot of data on your home broadband, but it's a lot of data for a legacy SATCOM system designed decades ago.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 02:23
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dumb press comments

Yes I agree with some comments made a good few threads back about dumb comments and pure speculation as to the cause or causes of this incident. The so called experts of the press are reading all this and then dress it up and poke it out on the air. Ive watched enough crap being aired and then remebered a comment on here in a prior thread.

Just to let all know I am an engineer that has been involved in this industry from year 1970 to date and have seen a few tragic incidents in that time. But never in all of these years have I ever been witness to such an incident of this nature. The Malays as far as I can see have handled this well. Yes a few bumbling incidents on TV but lets face it, no one has ever had to face this before so there was no script to work to. As for the slagging of the flight crews by a good few on here I find that just unacceptable. There is no eveidence as yet of any actions by the flight crews that have been proven to have caused this to be where it is. I refuse to listen or accept any ones statements untill the investigation has been completed and published. All your words are picked up by the press and as I said dressed up to make a story for the next edition.
The flight crews are members of our industry and we should stand by them in this hour and not allow the reputations to be tarnished. Or is it because some of you veiw them as being 2nd class due to nationality so can be slagged off in this way. Come guys for all we know every on that flight may be totaly inocent and victims of a very tragic accident the likes of which this industry has never seen before.
Let the Malays and the other interested searchers conclude this sad sorry situation and we can await the results and act on them as I am sure there will be changes to equipment and SOPs as a result.

As for the press reading this I will bet my next pay check that they will not report on this thread, but I am calling on all to support the crews(air & ground) untill such time as the results are published.

MAS its for sure a situation no one else has ever faced and I must say I admire the way you guys handle it. If the press handled the coverage a bit better then the pax familys would not be so agitated
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 02:25
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Comprehensive stats state that more than 50% of men have had extramarital affairs. Those affairs are carried out in secret and with deception in mind.
We're all human, after all, and lust and passion affect all of us to varying degrees.
Acquiring a "secret" phone in a false ID, that no-one knows about, is one way of keeping an affair reasonably secret.
The phone was registered to a woman. Doesn't that sort of defeat the purpose of using a fake name, if you're trying to hide an affair from the wife? Seems that if he was trying to hide a girlfriend, HE would have bought the burner phone in his name (or in a male name) and given it to her.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 02:35
  #7379 (permalink)  
 
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Latest Malaysian Press Release

Introductory statement

Diplomatic, logistical and technical efforts continue in the search for MH370. As we intensify the search and rescue operations, the overall emphasis remains the same: using all available means to narrow the search areas in both corridors.

1. Operational update

In the northern corridor, in response to diplomatic notes, we can confirm that China, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Laos, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have verbally informed the search and rescue operation that based on preliminary analysis, there have been no sightings of the aircraft on their radar.

With respect to the southern corridor, today two Chinese Ilyushin IL-76s will arrive in Perth to begin operations. The Shaanxi Y-8 which arrived yesterday will be operating from Subang air base in Malaysia. China is also sending an additional two ships from the Andaman Sea to join the five Chinese ships already in the southern corridor. Two Indian aircraft, a P-8 Poseidon and C-130 Hercules, arrived in Malaysia at 18:00 last night to assist with the search.

HMS Echo is currently in the Persian Gulf and is en route to the southern corridor. The ship is equipped with advanced sensors that allow it to search effectively underwater.

2. Australian search area

Five aircraft and two merchant ships were involved in the search and rescue operations in the vicinity of the objects identified by the Australian authorities, which are approximately 2,500km southwest of Perth. Despite improved visual search conditions yesterday, there were no sightings of the objects of interest.

Operations continue, and today they plan to search an area of approximately 10,500 square nautical miles.

The Rescue Co-ordination Centre Australia anticipates that 6 aircraft, 4 military and 2 civilian, will be visually searching the area. Two merchant vessels will also be present during search operations, and HMAS Success was due to reach the search area at 14:30 today.

Generally, conditions in the southern corridor are very challenging. The ocean varies between 1,150 metres and 7,000 metres in depth. In the area where the possible objects were identified by the Australian authorities there are strong currents and rough seas.

A cyclone warning has been declared for Tropical Cyclone Gillian, which is located in the southern corridor. Very strong winds and rough seas are expected there today.

3. Family briefings

The briefing for families in KL yesterday went well. The briefing in Beijing, however, was less productive. Despite the best intentions, I understand there were tense scenes.

I have received a report from the Malaysian high-level team, as well as a copy of the declaration from the Chinese families. I have asked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, together with the authorities in China, to investigate what happened.

We will continue to engage with the families. We are working hard with Chinese authorities and the Chinese working group to create a more conducive environment for the briefings. I have instructed my technical team to do a review of both briefings so that we can improve them.

We appeal to all parties to be understanding during this extraordinary and difficult time. My pledge to all the families, wherever they are, is the same: we will do everything in our power to keep you informed.

4. Transcript

The original transcript of the conversation between MH370 and Malaysian air traffic control is with the investigations team, where it is being analysed.

As is standard practice in investigations of this sort, the transcript cannot be publicly released at this stage. I can however confirm that the transcript does not indicate anything abnormal.

5. Cargo manifest

On the matter of MH370’s cargo, the cargo manifest is with the investigations team, and will be released in due course.

Preliminary investigation of the cargo manifest has not shown any link to anything that might have contributed to MH370’s disappearance.

As was stated yesterday, all cargo carried on MH370 was in compliance with International Civil Aviation Organisation and International Air Transport Association standards.

6. Concluding remarks

Over the past two weeks, the search for MH370 has taken many twists and turns. From satellite images to eyewitness accounts, we have followed every lead and investigated every possibility.

Today we are focused on leads from the satellite images announced by the Australian authorities on Thursday. We continue to be updated by the Australian authorities on an hourly basis.

I know this rollercoaster has been incredibly hard for everyone, especially for the families. We hope and pray this difficult search will be resolved, and bring closure to those whose relatives were on board.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank all 26 countries who are with us in this effort; from ordinary people to the highest levels of government.

I would also like to pay special tribute to the men and women from all countries who are putting themselves in harm’s way in the search for MH370.

As we speak, people are sailing through a cyclone to help find the missing plane. We are immensely grateful to all our partners for their efforts.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 02:38
  #7380 (permalink)  
 
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BrisBoy C: The aircraft suffered a major problem. The pilots started working through the checklists and decided on an air return
I have to agree with you on this one. There could have been a return in the secondary flight plan and this was activated. Could well explain the points being overflown. The plan then had a discontinuity and so the aircraft maintains the last heading. Aircraft continues until eventually runs out of fuel.

There have been a few instances of aircraft landing after the pilots ejected from mil aircraft.

Taken from the aviationist ..During a training mission from Malmstrom Air Force Base, on Feb. 2, 1970, his F-106 entered an uncontrollable flat spin forcing him to eject. Unexpectedly, the aircraft recovered on its own and made a gentle belly landing and skidding for a few hundred yards on a field near Big Sandy, Montana, covered by some inches of snow...The aircraft, returned to active service after the mishap. The Aviationist » The weird story of a U.S. jet that recovered from flat spin and made a gentle landing. Unpiloted

Sure it was a fighter and landed on a flat field covered in a few inches of snow, it still survived enough to be serviceable again.
The 777 is built like a tank just look at the video of the San Fran crash.

The plane could quite possible have 'landed' on the water and now sunk. If this happened then the black boxes would not be activated, unless they are activated if immersed in water.

Probably why all the searching is happening where it is. The last heading / track can be deduced from the pings and a plot drawn. The only problem is what the drift was at the height they were flying.

Everything could be at the bottom of the ocean. The water pressure would most likely crush parts of the fuselage but it is that pressure that will stop anything floating up. Eventually due to ocean currents items will be washed up but hundreds of miles away.

Suicide / hijacking does not add up any more. There is no reason to suspect 2 professional aviators. Hijacking well forget it, a call would have been made somehow, even by the cabin crew activating ELT's.

Lithium Fire that is the number 1 suspect. Just how many Lithium batteries were on board. Why the secret!

Last edited by James7; 23rd Mar 2014 at 02:48. Reason: 'activating' inserted
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