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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 06:33
  #7141 (permalink)  
 
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On the 777 the suitable airports around his position would have been

Ho chi minh, Kuantan, KL, Subang, Langkawi, Penang, Johor Bahru, Sing etc some of those would have been closed at 2 am.

Others like Kota Bahru, Terengganu, Ipoh, Alor setar, etc are a little short for a 777 except for a grave and imminent emergency.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 06:33
  #7142 (permalink)  
 
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Earl: CNN should stop all this technical know how, as it can hurt us all later.
You dont think the bad guys are taking notes?
Security by obscurity is not security, and usually a bad plan. Usually its the bad guys who find out first.

Frankly its a good thing the unlocked EE thing was disclosed - perhaps now something will be done about it. Someone somewhere should be fired for letting that remain unsecured.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 06:45
  #7143 (permalink)  
 
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Coagie: Not so. If the inputs are screwed up, because a sensor is thrown out of calibration from heat or other damage, you could get a specific fault. Heat can cause added resistance, that makes 5 volts, which would be a "1" in binary, low enough, where it shows up as 0 volts, which is a "0". This could feed some radical numbers into the brains of your "complex electronic systems", and cause an intermittent, as the sensor heats up or cools, or consistent, but specific failure, , due to ambient temperature change. I think such a failure of some acceleration sensors was the cause of the Malaysian 777 stall in 2005.
Sensors are duplicated. The systems are duplicated (in the case of the 777 it appears multiple instances run in lock step with cross checking of outputs). Any differing values will be detected. So for your scenario to happen, you'd have to have all such sensors damaged in the same way and feeding exactly the same 'radical' numbers into the system.

The other thing that makes it seem very unlikely is the long time period (many hours) and small number of course changes with large intervals (based on the radar track at least).

Is it possible that systems damage caused the plane to change heading periodically but otherwise fly fine? Sure, but so are many other theories floated on here. Likely? I don't think so.

The 2005 incident you referenced was due to a software bug which caused the system not to reject a known faulty sensor reading. Left alone with no intervention, that one would have been catastrophic. Had that software bug not existed, the faulty sensor would have been ignored.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 06:45
  #7144 (permalink)  
 
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Aus chartered Gulfstreams now on station in Southern search area. Time on station now pretty much limited to crew fatigue. For those advocating the carriage of a spare crew to extend search time, the cabin is full of eyes too..
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 06:47
  #7145 (permalink)  
 
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Search Update - 2:30PM Australian WST (0630GMT).

Two merchant ships are currently in the designated search area and carrying out a search by travelling back and forth through the search zone.

HMAS Success is expected to reach the search area mid-Saturday afternoon, local time (very soon).
The Chinese Government has re-tasked three warships - the Kunlunshan, the Haikou, and the Qiandaohu - to the Southern Indian Ocean search zone.
The Kunlunshan is a modern amphibious transport ship, the Haikou is a destroyer, and the Qiandaohu is a refuelling ship.
The Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon (Xue Long) was fully refuelled and re-provisioned in Fremantle port and left at 6:00PM local time last night (Friday night) for the search zone. The Snow Dragon carries 87 crew.

Two commercial jets (Gulfstream & Global Express) and an RAAF P3 Orion left Perth 6:00AM local time (1000GMT) to carry out search duties in the search area.
The commercial jets have 5 hrs endurance over the search zone, the Orion has only 2 hrs endurance.

Ten volunteers from the local State Emergency Service (SES) have been tasked with search duties (air observers) on the commercial jets.

There have been 15 sorties carried out from Pearce airbase by the RAAF and RNZAF Orions since they arrived Thursday.

Three Chinese Iluyshin-IL76's are expected to arrive in Perth this afternoon to join in the search.
A number of Japanese search aircraft are expected to arrive in Perth on Monday to assist in the search.

Weather in the search area is reported as being exceptionally favourable today, with excellent visibility, and winds down to 10 knots.
The swell never lets up, though.

Last edited by onetrack; 22nd Mar 2014 at 07:16. Reason: addendum ..
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 07:00
  #7146 (permalink)  
 
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I keep thinking this is a heck of a lot of activity for two smudges on a satellite photo. Does anyone know if what the satellite guys have looked at is higher resolution than the jpegs on the AMSA website ? I guess there could be better photos nobody wants to tell us about.

I hope they find something. I can't imagine what it would be like to have a relative on that plane.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 07:03
  #7147 (permalink)  
 
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Security by obscurity is not security, and usually a bad plan. Usually its the bad guys who find out first.
"Bad guys" come in many different types , ranging from the well prepared to the nutter that acts on the spirit of the moment. History shows that a very large proportion of bad guys, in an aviation context, are very high on political or religious ideas and pretty low on technical knowhow. Unlike software hackers the vast majority are not conversant with the finer workings of large commercial airliners why spoon feed that info in the tv just to spice up a bit of "news"?
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 07:08
  #7148 (permalink)  
 
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............and they came back with "good morning."
ATC-talk is really only totally procedural when they're busy, rest of the time they're as human as anyone else, and I think on the Graveyard shift ( Ooops, no pun intended ! ) over N.E. Malaysia / S.E. Vietnam is as borin' as anywhere.

Once finished an ATC position report - in English of course - over the USSR with "Do Svadanya". Guy came back with a torrent of Russian ! Bored out of his mind, just wanted someone to talk to !
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 07:50
  #7149 (permalink)  
 
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Groan. Geoffrey Thomas is at it again.

Australian, self appointed "aviation expert" was just on Australian news program discussing the RT which have been released.

It has already been established that the released transcript has been subject to a double translation which, when it comes to RT phraseology, makes it even less likely to actually reflect the conversation and essentially irrelevant to speculation of cause.

He then went on to say what the required read back from the crew (for a frequency hand off) should have been - and he was COMPLETELY wrong.

Nothing irks me more than a supposed technical/industry expert making things up which are incorrect and disseminating to the public. An aviation expert in RT phraseology is a pilot or ATC, not a journalist.

"Aviation expert"... In his own eyes only.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 07:53
  #7150 (permalink)  
 
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On the 777 the suitable airports around his position would have been

Ho chi minh, Kuantan, KL, Subang, Langkawi, Penang, Johor Bahru, Sing etc some of those would have been closed at 2 am.
Could it have been, that after an unknown chain of events, they tried to line up for 09 of Phuket? That would at least be consistent with the alleged primary radar tracks.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 08:06
  #7151 (permalink)  
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It's getting worse. First the expert GT is on, sprouting rubbish as normal. Then Fox News, just now, showed an interview with the Australian Prime-minister, about the search. Well, I don't know who it was that they interviewed, but I know who the guy is that I voted for, for the PMs job, and it wasn't him been interviewed.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 08:06
  #7152 (permalink)  
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I was sent the following link by another ppruner who was not sure if it was useful. It shows the military radar plot of the LKP. It is hard to interpret a dynamic plot from a single screen shot.

Interestingly, as far as I can see, this is a raw radar plot and I cannot make out any track label on MH370 as screen does not have sufficient definition although the radar has an electronic map overlay.

What I think they have shown with the arrow is MH370 LKP. If they think it is returning from the east what did they think seeing it so far west?

Also this position is west, towards the satellite ground position which suggests that the aircraft had to have an easterly track component to reach the northern arc and a southerly one to reach the southern arc (assuming that Indonesian radar is correct with no track). Either way, pings preceding the last ping should show first movement west followed by movement east.

As usual it is in Mandarin.

??????????????? ??????[??] _????_???

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 22nd Mar 2014 at 09:06.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 08:39
  #7153 (permalink)  
 
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I was sent the following link by another ppruner who was not sure if it was useful. It shows the military radar plot of the LKP. It is hard to interpret a dynamic plot from a single screen shot.

Interestingly, as far as I can see, this is a raw radar plot and I cannot make out any track label on MH370 although the radar has an electronic map overlay.

What I think they have shown with the arrow is MH370 LKP. If they think it is returning from the east what did they think seeing it so far west?

Also this position is west, towards the satellite ground position which suggests that the aircraft had to have an easterly track component to reach the northern arc and a southerly one to reach the southern arc (assuming that Indonesian radar is correct with no track). Either way, pings preceding the last ping should show first movement west followed by movement east.

As usual it is in Mandarin.

??????????????? ??????[??] _????_???
Which Translates as:


March 21 , Malaysian military representatives in Beijing Lido Hotel Malaysia Airlines lost contact with the families of airline passengers to meet military radar screenshot released . Source : CFP

China News Network March 21 the day of 11:00 , Malaysia, the military announced on behalf of the military radar shots in Beijing Lido Hotel. Screenshot shows , Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 lost contact last appeared on the radar screen of the Air Force Ma time at 2:22 on March 8 , from the Macedonian side air base of 200 nautical miles.

Malaysian military representative said the plane was last seen at 2:22 on the radar screen of the Air Force , Air Force Base, 200 sea miles away . Aircraft exhumation , but considered returning the aircraft is a normal phenomenon , determine takeoff point is Kuala Lumpur , it is considered to be friendly.

According to Legal Evening News reported that the military radar , lost contact after flight MH370 signs return, the aircraft turned around , flew over the Malay Peninsula , to Penang direction . But because the plane was taking off from Kuala Lumpur , so the flight was considered friendly , so did not issue a warning signal or intercept command. At 2:02 on the 8th , radar to detect aircraft in the vicinity of Perak Island. Subsequently, the horse near the Strait of Malacca military radar last detected traces of the MH370 .

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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 08:40
  #7154 (permalink)  
 
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Cue points & data for the first 40 min of flight

Following is all the ADS-B data i could gather from 1642 to 1721 UTC :
255 cue points with time, altitude and speed data (and discontinued lat/long, climb rate and squawk data).
Presented as such, these lines are quite ugly, but you can directly copy/paste them in a csv file (semi-colon separator) and work with the numbers if you're interested.

Originally, i wanted to collect this data only for the first 20 points, because they're in a straight line from runway 32R and i thought i could figure a way to deduce MH370's TOW from this climb data, even though i have no clue about MAS's tankering, derating rules etc... but Bloomberg released the TOW yesterday, so, probably pointless finally.
Still, i think this ADS-B data is pretty useful and among the most reliable we were given.



SOURCES/METHOD USED :

- "FR24 Gr" = FlightRadar24 graph (MH370 - Malaysia Airlines - Flight history - Flightradar24). The raw figures (time, alt & speed) for the 185 cue points of the FR24 graph are included in the page's source code, all i had to do was grab them and translate them in the right units.
- "FR24 Pn" = FlightRadar24 "pinned" page (same url). The data you get each time you press the FWD button. Adds location and heading to some of the 185 "FR24 Gr" points.
- "GE" = Google Earth. For the first "FR24 Pn" points (just after takeoff, in the 327° straight line), i got the lat and long data from Google Earth. Presumably it can be done with every other "FR24 Pn" cue point, that's why i marked their missing lat/long data with a "*"
- "FR24 Pb" = FlightRadar24 "playback" page (Flightradar24.com - Live flight tracker!). Oddly enough, the points are not the same as in the "pinned" page. And these ones also include the climb rate, the squawk and the data feeder (registered ADS-B receiver which the data came from)
- "FA" = FlightAware data (Registre de suivi des vols ? MAS370 ? 08-03-2014 ? WMKK / KUL - ZBAA / PEK ? FlightAware). No squawk data on this one, and some minor discrepancies when compared to FR24 heading and velocity data.
- "PF" = PlaneFinder. 3 additional cue points, still better than nothing.

Once all this data collected, i ordered them by growing altitude until FL350, and adjusted the remaining cue points, based on their timestamp (feel free to interpolate the points where seconds are replaced by XX).




T[UTC];LAT[°];LONG[°];HDG[°];ALT[ft];SPD[kts];RoC[ft/mn];Squawk;ADS-B feeder;Data Source
16:42:22;2,7983;101,6890;328;1500;183;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn+GE
16:42:26;;;;1543;185;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:29;2,8033;101,6860;327;1575;188;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn+GE
16:42:32;;;;1603;190;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:33;;;;1622;194;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:35;2,8083;101,6830;327;1650;196;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn+GE
16:42:38;;;;1682;199;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:39;;;;1687;199;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:XX;2,8100;101,6800;327;1700;200;896;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:42:42;2,8129;101,6800;327;1725;201;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn+GE
16:42:45;;;;1757;203;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:46;;;;1789;206;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:48;2,8184;101,6760;327;1825;207;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn+GE
16:42:52;;;;1879;209;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:54;;;;1888;207;;;;FR24 Gr
16:42:57;2,8245;101,6730;327;1950;210;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn+GE
16:43:06;;;;2108;213;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:11;;;;2214;228;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:XX;2,8444;101,6604;333;2400;235;0;;;FA
16:43:20;2,8473;101,6590;336;2375;237;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn+GE
16:43:23;;;;2424;240;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:24;;;;2427;239;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:27;*;*;346;2475;240;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:43:29;;;;2517;241;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:31;;;;2522;240;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:33;2,8600;101,6600;353;2600;242;1280;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Gr+Pb
16:43:41;;;;2872;248;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:46;;;;3016;252;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:XX;2,8751;101,6607;024;3100;257;1980;;;FA
16:43:54;*;*;024;3350;258;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:43:56;;;;3446;260;;;;FR24 Gr
16:43:58;;;;3560;259;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:00;*;*;024;3675;260;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:44:03;;;;3810;261;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:04;;;;3844;260;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:07;*;*;025;3975;261;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:44:XX;2,8953;101,6698;026;4000;262;2820;;;FA
16:44:10;;;;4124;262;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:12;;;;4209;263;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:15;*;*;026;4375;264;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:44:17;;;;4499;265;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:18;;;;4585;265;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:21;*;*;026;4700;265;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:44:24;;;;4835;265;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:25;;;;4866;266;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:28;2,9203;101,6822;026;5000;266;2760;;;FR24 Gr+Pn+FA
16:44:35;;;;5326;267;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:XX;2,9300;101,6900;026;5400;267;3072;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:44:38;;;;5521;268;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:XX;2,9342;101,6891;026;5800;270;2820;;;FA
16:44:45;*;*;026;5850;269;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:44:50;;;;6101;270;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:53;;;;6175;269;;;;FR24 Gr
16:44:58;*;*;026;6450;270;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:45:03;;;;6725;271;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:XX;2,9638;101,7035;026;6900;273;2940;;;FA
16:45:06;;;;6970;272;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:11;*;*;025;7225;273;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:45:16;;;;7460;274;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:18;;;;7473;276;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:23;*;*;025;7675;277;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:45:28;;;;7893;278;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:31;;;;8030;278;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:36;*;*;025;8275;279;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:45:XX;3,0000;101,7200;025;8475;280;3072;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:45:41;;;;8520;280;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:43;;;;8645;280;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:XX;3,0097;101,7254;026;8800;282;2820;;;FA
16:45:49;*;*;025;8900;281;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:45:53;;;;9135;282;;;;FR24 Gr
16:45:56;;;;9265;283;;;;FR24 Gr
16:46:01;*;*;025;9500;284;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:46:XX;3,0334;101,7367;026;9700;285;1620;;;FA
16:46:05;;;;9715;285;;;;FR24 Gr
16:46:07;;;;9907;284;;;;FR24 Gr
16:46:12;*;*;025;10025;286;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:46:24;;;;10357;288;;;;FR24 Gr
16:46:30;;;;10408;304;;;;FR24 Gr
16:46:XX;3,0800;101,7600;025;10600;314;512;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:46:43;*;*;025;10625;318;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:46:55;;;;10848;332;;;;FR24 Gr
16:47:02;;;;10795;345;;;;FR24 Gr
16:47:XX;3,1119;101,7740;026;11000;347;1440;;;FA
16:47:14;*;*;025;11125;355;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:47:28;;;;11485;366;;;;FR24 Gr
16:47:XX;3,1337;101,7844;025;11500;332;1980;;;FA
16:47:35;;;;11791;365;;;;FR24 Gr
16:47:XX;3,1600;101,8000;025;11950;367;2560;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:47:49;*;*;025;12350;369;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:47:XX;3,1807;101,8068;026;12500;369;2220;;;FA
16:48:02;;;;12861;373;;;;FR24 Gr
16:48:09;;;;13215;373;;;;FR24 Gr
16:48:21;*;*;025;13800;375;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:48:XX;3,2351;101,8325;026;14000;376;2640;;;FA
16:48:34;;;;14385;377;;;;FR24 Gr
16:48:XX;3,2500;101,8400;025;14475;377;2816;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:48:40;;;;14769;375;;;;FR24 Gr
16:48:53;*;*;025;15275;377;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:49:XX;3,2828;101,8554;026;15400;378;2400;;;FA
16:49:18;;;;16239;379;;;;FR24 Gr
16:49:XX;3,3302;101,8781;026;16500;385;2160;;;FA
16:49:30;;;;16570;386;;;;FR24 Gr
16:49:XX;3,3500;101,8900;025;16925;387;2304;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:49:XX;;;025;17425;391;;2157;;PF
16:49:54;*;*;025;17475;391;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:50:XX;3,3878;101,9058;026;17800;394;2220;;;FA
16:50:18;;;;18380;396;;;;FR24 Gr
16:50:XX;3,4286;101,9253;026;18700;396;2160;;;FA
16:50:31;;;;18927;395;;;;FR24 Gr
16:50:XX;3,4500;101,9400;025;19225;399;2432;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:50:55;*;*;024;19800;400;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:51:XX;3,4807;101,9496;025;19800;402;2160;;;FA
16:51:20;;;;20687;405;;;;FR24 Gr
16:51:XX;3,5325;101,9736;025;20900;408;1980;;;FA
16:51:32;;;;21065;411;;;;FR24 Gr
16:51:XX;3,5500;101,9800;025;21275;410;1920;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:51:57;*;*;025;21875;416;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:52:XX;3,5924;102,0018;026;22000;418;1740;;;FA
16:52:21;;;;22685;421;;;;FR24 Gr
16:52:XX;3,6466;102,0276;025;22800;426;1800;;;FA
16:52:XX;3,6600;102,0300;025;23100;426;2560;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:52:34;;;;23134;420;;;;FR24 Gr
16:52:59;*;*;025;23850;424;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:53:XX;3,7073;102,0563;025;24000;427;1800;;;FA
16:53:23;;;;24554;428;;;;FR24 Gr
16:53:XX;3,7630;102,0825;025;24800;433;1560;;;FA
16:53:35;;;;24840;432;;;;FR24 Gr
16:53:XX;3,7700;102,0900;025;24850;434;1536;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:53:59;*;*;025;25425;438;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:54:XX;3,8187;102,1087;025;25600;440;1380;;;FA
16:54:24;;;;26010;444;;;;FR24 Gr
16:54:XX;3,8740;102,1346;025;26200;448;1260;;;FA
16:54:36;;;;26220;447;;;;FR24 Gr
16:54:XX;3,8800;102,1400;025;26300;448;1280;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:54:XX;;;025;26475;451;;2157;;PF
16:55:00;*;*;025;26775;452;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:55:XX;3,9316;102,1618;025;26900;454;1380;;;FA
16:55:25;;;;27330;457;;;;FR24 Gr
16:55:37;;;;27645;457;;;;FR24 Gr
16:55:XX;4,0000;102,1900;025;27675;459;1536;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:55:XX;3,9968;102,1926;025;27700;458;1320;;;FA
16:56:01;*;*;025;28200;461;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:56:XX;4,0740;102,2289;025;28600;465;1320;;;FA
16:56:XX;4,0700;102,2300;025;28625;464;1280;2157;F-WMSA2;FR24 Pb
16:56:25;;;;28755;465;;;;FR24 Gr
16:56:38;;;;29039;467;;;;FR24 Gr
16:57:XX;4,1430;102,2615;025;29400;469;1260;;;FA
16:57:02;*;*;025;29550;470;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:57:XX;4,2042;102,2904;025;30000;472;1200;;;FA
16:57:27;;;;30069;473;;;;FR24 Gr
16:57:XX;4,2200;102,3000;025;30175;473;1280;2157;T-WMSA8;FR24 Pb
16:57:39;;;;30301;473;;;;FR24 Gr
16:58:04;*;*;025;30775;476;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:58:28;;;;31241;479;;;;FR24 Gr
16:58:XX;4,3300;102,3500;025;31275;481;1152;2157;T-WMKP2;FR24 Pb
16:58:40;;;;31290;485;;;;FR24 Gr
16:59:05;*;*;025;31900;485;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
16:59:32;;;;32580;485;;;;FR24 Gr
16:59:XX;;;025;32800;480;;2157;;PF
16:59:XX;4,4600;102,4100;025;32825;480;2176;2157;T-WMKP2;FR24 Pb
16:59:45;;;;33341;476;;;;FR24 Gr
17:00:13;*;*;025;34000;472;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
17:00:XX;4,5800;102,4700;025;34475;470;1536;2157;T-WMKP2;FR24 Pb
17:00:37;;;;34591;469;;;;FR24 Gr
17:00:XX;4,7015;102,5251;025;35000;468;960;;;FA
17:00:XX;4,7000;102,5200;025;35000;467;0;2157;T-WMKP2;FR24 Pb
17:00:49;;;;35025;467;;;;FR24 Gr
17:01:13;*;*;025;35025;467;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
17:01:39;;;;35025;467;;;;FR24 Gr
17:01:52;;;;35000;467;;;;FR24 Gr
17:02:18;*;*;025;35000;467;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
17:02:43;;;;35000;467;;;;FR24 Gr
17:02:XX;4,7073;102,5278;025;35000;468;0;;;FA
17:02:XX;4,7900;102,5700;025;35000;468;0;2157;T-WMKP2;FR24 Pb
17:02:55;;;;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr
17:03:20;*;*;025;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
17:03:45;;;;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr
17:03:XX;4,9400;102,6400;025;35000;468;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:03:57;;;;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr
17:04:22;*;*;025;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
17:04:48;;;;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr
17:04:XX;5,0400;102,6800;025;35000;468;0;2157;T-WMKN1;FR24 Pb
17:05:01;;;;35000;467;;;;FR24 Gr
17:05:27;*;*;025;35000;467;;;;FR24 Gr+Pn
17:05:XX;5,1700;102,7400;025;35000;468;-128;2157;T-WMKN1;FR24 Pb
17:05:53;;;;35000;467;;;;FR24 Gr
17:06:06;;;;35000;468;;;;FR24 Gr
17:06:33;;;;35000;468;;;;FR24 Gr
17:06:XX;5,2900;102,8000;025;35000;468;-128;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:06:59;;;;35000;468;;;;FR24 Gr
17:07:12;;;;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr
17:07:38;;;;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr
17:07:XX;5,3900;102,8500;025;35000;469;0;2157;T-WMKN1;FR24 Pb
17:08:03;;;;35000;469;;;;FR24 Gr
17:08:15;;;;35000;470;;;;FR24 Gr
17:08:39;;;;35000;470;;;;FR24 Gr
17:08:XX;5,5300;102,9200;024;35000;471;-128;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:09:04;;;;35000;470;;;;FR24 Gr
17:09:16;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:09:XX;5,6500;102,9700;025;35000;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:09:41;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:10:06;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:10:18;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:10:XX;5,7700;103,0300;025;35000;472;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:10:43;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:11:07;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:11:19;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:11:XX;5,8900;103,0900;025;35000;472;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:11:44;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:12:09;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:12:21;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:12:XX;6,0000;103,1400;025;35000;472;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:12:46;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:13:10;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:13:22;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:13:XX;6,1300;103,2000;025;35000;472;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:13:46;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:14:11;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:14:24;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:14:XX;6,2400;103,2600;025;35000;472;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:14:48;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:15:13;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:15:25;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:15:XX;6,3600;103,3100;025;35000;472;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:15:49;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:16:14;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:16:26;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:16:XX;6,4800;103,3700;025;35000;473;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:16:51;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:17:05;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:17:12;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:17:26;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:17:XX;6,5800;103,4100;025;35000;473;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:17:50;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:18:02;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:18:26;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:18:41;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:18:49;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:18:XX;6,6800;103,4600;025;35000;473;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:19:04;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:19:08;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:19:10;;;;35000;474;;;;FR24 Gr
17:19:15;;;;35000;474;;;;FR24 Gr
17:19:XX;6,8000;103,5200;025;35000;474;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:19:35;;;;35000;474;;;;FR24 Gr
17:19:45;;;;35000;473;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:05;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:11;;;;35000;472;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:XX;*;*;028;35000;472;;;;FR24 Pn
17:20:15;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:22;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:33;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:49;;;;35000;471;;;;FR24 Gr
17:20:XX;6,9300;103,5900;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb
17:21:XX;6,9700;103,6300;040;0;471;0;2157;F-WMKC1;FR24 Pb







A BONUS QUESTION :
It has probably been asked several times, so i will check, but i'm curious : What is, exactly, the "information flow" of ADS-B ? When a cue point seems weird, i can't figure if i'm reading a bad approximation by the ADS-B receiver, the exact number that appeared in 9M-MRO's cockpit, or some GPS data relayed by 9M-MRO then by the ADS-B receiver.
Examples :
- is it KIAS ? GS ?
- the point at 16:47:XX where speed suddenly drops to 332kts
- the final 2 points, where altitude drops to zero, but everything else continues normally

It's also interesting to see that the last 3 HDG figures seem to indicate that the plane was following the flight plan, at least until ADS-B data was disrupted.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 08:41
  #7155 (permalink)  
 
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What I think they have shown with the arrow is MH370 LKP. If they think it is returning from the east what did they think seeing it so far west?
The plot shows segments of a route from Penang thru a danger area direct to VAMPI and further on N571 to IGOGU. This is the last recorded segment West of Malaysia. The LKP is East of Malaysia. Penang is about 220 NM from IGARI or 30 flying minutes.

The plot was shown on a presentation to the relatives. The route had been announced earlier albeit with a Z turn southwest of Penang which can not be seen here. This may have been another airplane that was identified in the meantime.

The Prime Minister had addressed during his press conf that the determination that the trace would belong to flight 370 was made independantly by Malaysian and several foreign agencies.

The plot is from raw primary data therefore no tags or so. The map is overlaid for the presentation.

There are holes in primary radar coverage which speak about the quality of the Butterworth radar. The radar can be seen here 5.462348, 100.387213. It looks more like an elevated ASR than a long range defense radar. The quite long radar traces also speak in favour of a fast turning device, also the cone of silence above Penang. The 4 people sitting in the radar room of Butterworth that night probably had no defense duties but were approach controllers, my guess
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 08:46
  #7156 (permalink)  
 
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Those plots aren't just primary radar. Zoom in and you can see lots of overlapped labels. Of course, these could be SSR labels or air defence tags allocated to primary returns.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 08:47
  #7157 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator
I was sent the following link by another ppruner who was not sure if it was useful. It shows the military radar plot of the LKP. It is hard to interpret a dynamic plot from a single screen shot.

Interestingly, as far as I can see, this is a raw radar plot and I cannot make out any track label on MH370 although the radar has an electronic map overlay.

What I think they have shown with the arrow is MH370 LKP. If they think it is returning from the east what did they think seeing it so far west?

Also this position is west, towards the satellite ground position which suggests that the aircraft had to have an easterly track component to reach the northern arc and a southerly one to reach the southern arc (assuming that Indonesian radar is correct with no track). Either way, pings preceding the last ping should show first movement west followed by movement east.

As usual it is in Mandarin.

??????????????? ??????[??] _????_???
This is curious. One of the notable features here is that the track does not match the original description in the media. You can't really make out the letters, but there's good agreement between lines in the picture and waypoints. The one near the top is GIVAL. The track never goes near it. The one under the left side of the white circle is VAMPI. The track goes from VAMPI along route N571 to MEKAR and NILAM. (You can sorta make out the label for MEKAR, look for white pixels near the left edge of the pic, under the track.)

Though the comment says "200nm from Butterworth AB", this is clearly wrong. MEKAR is ~235nm from either Penang or Butterworth and last known is past MEKAR. I'd estimate that it's about 250nm from Penang.

This also seriously undermines the "hiding under SIA68" theory, since, if this is the correct track, it was nowhere near SIA68 when it was lost. (According to FR24, the closest aircraft was UAE343, Kuala Lumpur to Dubai, same route but about 5 minutes behind.)

P.S. By the way, if you assume that it's stuck in heading mode at this point (which would be heading 285 give or take a few degrees) and you extrapolate the course for 6 hours, you get Yemen. Which is nowhere near Inmarsat arcs. So there had to be at least one additional change of heading. N571 is pretty much a straight line from MEKAR all the way to Dubai, but there's a small turn at MEKAR and it's impossible to tell if it was executed by MH370. Dubai (heading 300) is far from the arcs as well. If we assume Indian ocean, the only way to get to the area where Australians are searching (above 40 degrees of latitude) is to to take a 90 degree left turn within 1/2 hour after going off Penang radar.

Last edited by hamster3null; 22nd Mar 2014 at 09:27.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 09:04
  #7158 (permalink)  
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There have been questions about the rate of climb shown in the transcript to be 'wrong'.

Bad as the double translated transcript is I believe it shows a normal climb departure with an initial clearance to FL180, a further clearance to FL250, and a final clearance to FL350. In each case the revised clearance being issued before the aircraft had reached the cleared level. As a continuous climb to FL350 in 19 minutes it looks perfectly normal.
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 09:13
  #7159 (permalink)  
 
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Things get worse.

This so called transcript appears to be nothing of the sort but someones interpretation of the comunications. It is riddled with flaws like using altitude instead of flight level and not one single readback. Either the authorities need to ensure information is accurate or Malaysian need a huge education programme in ICAO phraseology

This is only going to lead to more speculation as people will be commenting on something that is not accurate. If they cannot get this right, what else can we believe?
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Old 22nd Mar 2014, 09:13
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Sky news reporting that the Chinese aircraft arriving today to assist in the search landed in Perth instead of Pearce, despite the protests of ATC.

"They then took off straight away and headed to Pearce, where the deputy PM was waiting for them."



Any truth in that? Clearing customs or something?
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