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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:38
  #6461 (permalink)  
 
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Noteworthy to me that we here have seen the satellite images but cnn and fox havent shown them yet
CNN did show them quite a while ago. The anchor said they didn't look like much to him. My guess is the indistinct images don't make good TV so they're not showing them over and over.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:39
  #6462 (permalink)  
 
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If you have the focal length of the camera and the height of the aircraft then you have the (approximate) scale of the photo. Then you can calculate approximately the length of the object.

eg focal length 100mm flying height 1000 metres then scale is 0.1/1000. Or 1 to 10000.

You measure the length of the object on the photo say 2.4mm therefore actual length is 10000 times that or 24000 millimetres, 24 metres

As has been repeated many times already the longest shipping container is 40' or 12.2 metres or so.

Last edited by Oldpilot55; 20th Mar 2014 at 07:55. Reason: Removed the comment about stereo pair, doh.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:42
  #6463 (permalink)  
 
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How will they confirm anything with a fly past?
They have stabilised camera on the nose with a powerful lens that can image visible spectrum and thermal images.
Aust PM has gone out on a limb. He has also put Malaysian PM under some pressure
Not how I read the PM question Time and following press conference with SAR.

In fact I'de say he can't lose, the satellite image specialists see a target and military and civil SAR guys make the decision to have a look.
Civil and military guys appear on tv to be articulate and open, they will take the media flack and return it with interest.

PM says good luck and Godspeed as I hope we all do.

It is a good example of an agency getting its message out quickly and clearly so it can be propagated and dominate social media and the web, rather than in the absence of good info, let social media and the web make stuff up which gets propagated ad nauseam.


mickjoebill
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:44
  #6464 (permalink)  
 
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Anybody have an informed opinion on how long it might take an fbi expert to recover deleted files off a computer?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:45
  #6465 (permalink)  
 
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Fuel Starvation Induced Descent Pattern

Edition12
I hesitate to add to pure speculation; but assuming this large object is part of the aircraft, this would mean we're looking at an impact gentle enough to not send big bits to the bottom, less than 12G to not set the ELT off, but solid enough not let anyone on board switch on the ELT if inclined to do so, nor deploy slides/rafts and trail an EPIRB. Does that sound about right?
Can aviation experts make an educated guess regarding the descent pattern followed by a fully loaded B777 as a result of fuel starvation. Does the typical nose up, one wing pointed down, corkscrew rotation hold in such cases. Might explain what kind of debris can be expected at the crash site. Where would be the center of gravity of a fully loaded B777 with empty fuel tanks? Any estimate of terminal velocity ?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:46
  #6466 (permalink)  
 
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My assessment, agree?

I positioned a B777 against the AMSA find... what do you think?



I'm surprised they held a PC so soon, but I wonder if the item was in fact already identified (logo visible?), they're just not admitting that yet, perhaps to "ease" the family into the news of their loved ones fates?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:51
  #6467 (permalink)  
 
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OldPilot55. The height of the "aircraft" is 7057 kilometres if the image came from an IKONOS satellite and 681 km if taken by GeoEye-1. I suspect the latter. The size calibration is a given based on the equipment used. They are two images of the same spot at the close to the same time with different filters.

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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:52
  #6468 (permalink)  
 
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Seafloor

The sea floor in the area where the debris was discovered is around 3000 metres and flat and featureless.

3000 metres is well with range of ROV's.

I have a marine chart image of the seabed from a screenshot. How do I post that?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:54
  #6469 (permalink)  
 
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ps

Things under water appear a little larger, so if they're stating the largest object is approximately 24 meters, how much of that should be 'shrunk' to result in actual size? IF I'm right as to my guess that it's the tail, would it be accurate that it's 20 meters actual length/height? I defer to you experts!
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:54
  #6470 (permalink)  
 
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Not stereo Pair

The photos are a stereo pair. If you have the focal length of the camera and the height of the aircraft then you have the (approximate) scale of the photo. Then you can calculate approximately the length of the object.
No, the photos represent different ways of looking at spectral information. The one on the left is brightness from all wavelengths together (monochrome). The one on the right is false color, showing information about various wavelengths and combinations by the color in the image.

This sort of thing is common in remote sensing. Spectral information can tell you interesting things - it is color vision, except the "colors" are not the ones your eyes see.

That being said, I can't tell you what the colors mean. That's why they have specialists.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:57
  #6471 (permalink)  
 
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Object 2

Object 2

Note this is Object 2 -- different coordinates to Object 1

Last edited by Senior Pilot; 20th Mar 2014 at 08:07. Reason: Image too large
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:57
  #6472 (permalink)  
 
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Anybody have an informed opinion on how long it might take an fbi expert to recover deleted files off a computer?
To identify how many files were deleted and what they were is a matter of minutes. To understand its content can take forever. A file is not like a sheet of paper anybody can readily read. To understand what temporary files of certain programs do contain is a little more complicated. If you want to track back remainders of windows virtual memory file sectors to certain programms, you need to be a real nerd, but may find very conclusive content. There is a good chance that the programm with the highest memory demand recently running was the flight simulator, so there should be a lot of not yet overwritten pieces of virtual memory on that computers hard drive. Windows is not at all optimized for privacy and security...
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 07:58
  #6473 (permalink)  
 
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@PilotMike
On a 777 do you input the s43e80 by typing the letters or do use use an input box with s/n etc?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 08:01
  #6474 (permalink)  
 
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Didn't the Air France and XL/Air New Zealand tails float as well ? How long would they float for ?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 08:01
  #6475 (permalink)  
 
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To the speculators...

Scenario:

Fire/damage sufficient to disable any chance of communicating with outside world.

*Aircraft made at least four changes to its track. Fire/damage did not destroy Satcom system. No communications indicating problem. Fire/damage of that magnitude unlikely to leave aircraft in condition to fly on.

Contra-indicated.

Rapid depressurisation disabled pilots.

* Aircraft made at least four changes to its track. Transponder and ACARS Intentionally disabled.

Contra-indicated

Slow decompression was not noticed by crew.

* Aircraft made at least four changes to its track. Transponder and ACARS intentionally disabled. EICAS system would have alerted crew to high cabin pressure well before incapacitation. Cabin oxy masks would have fallen in cabin at pre-determined altitude, Flight crew would have been alerted by cabin crew.

Contra-indicated.

Aircraft shadowed other aircraft to escape detection

* Aircraft, on a moonless night, would have had to track and intercept target aircraft visually as TCAS turned off with transponder. Dark night and heavy aircraft. Neither pilot seems to be formation rated. Flight at 35000 feet, and above as target aircraft climbs, leaves no performance margin for close station keeping. Air to air refuelling of large aircraft takes place around FL250 due to aforementioned performance limitations. Air defence radars would have picked up two large paints. Aircraft required to fly dangerously close to target aircraft for many hours.

Contra-indicated.

Aircraft had emergency and tracked towards Langkawi

* Not supported by Satcom ping data.

Contra-indicated

Aircraft went north over Asia

* No record of any unidentified aircraft on various countries Air defence radars. Extremely unlikely to find, intercept and hold position with another aircraft flying between FL350-390 for length of time required.

Contra-indicated

Aircraft hijacked by passengers

*Security procedure make this difficult but not impossible. High degree of technical knowledge required to fly revealed track and disable ACARS. No evidence of any terrorist links to anyone on passenger list. Aircraft disappearance not compatible with usual terrorism objectives. Passengers and crew would be unable to enter cockpit to restore control if locked out.

Contra-indicated but possible.

Interference by flight crew

*No revealed motive to do so.

Possible.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 08:02
  #6476 (permalink)  
 
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Mesoman

Agreed.
Yes, it was a mistake. They are different spectrums. I've corrected the post. The scale calculation is correct though.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 08:02
  #6477 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CowgirlInAlaska View Post
I positioned a B777 against the AMSA find... what do you think?
The tail height is 18.5m not 20 meters and that is from the ground to tip of the VS. The actual height of the VS from fuselage is about 10m.
Your superimposed T7 pic looks about 2x too big. Whatever that object is, it can't be the tail (assuming 24m is accurate).
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 08:03
  #6478 (permalink)  
 
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Bono:

Suppose no one was alive on board, but it was happily cruising along at 29500 ft, heading south.

The autopilot would keep this going as long as possible. When fuel starvation sets in, one main tank will be empty before the other main tank. This is because one engine will always consume more, fuel flow wise, than the other.
The first engine flaming out will be corrected by the TAC. No problem. Also, a 777 at zero fuel weight (ZFW) will be able to maintain FL295 with one engine.

A few minutes later the other engine flames out. All generators will drop off, so no electric power is provided. However, the RAT will kick in, providing electrical power to, also, the autopilot. (Actually, only the transfer busses, but the Autopilot is on this)
The autopilot will try to maintain FL295, but is unable to do so due to lack of engine thrust. When top of yellow band is reached, the autopilot will slowly descend with this speed until impact. This is also what happened in london with the BA 777 on the ILS when it flamed out. The A/P flew the aircraft against the ground at heathrow with minimum speed.

All a bit rusty, I last flew the 777 three years back.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 08:07
  #6479 (permalink)  
 
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I'd bet the transfer of power would drop the A/P off......the NBPT ain't that good.

The BA 777 suffered a "Thrust rollback",the engines were still running along with their IDG's powering the Aircraft.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 08:09
  #6480 (permalink)  
 
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Could it be part of fuselage ? Maybe half a fuselage with 2 or 3 rips ? What's the diameter of fuselage ?
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