Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Edition12]

I hesitate to add to pure speculation; but assuming this large object is part of the aircraft, this would mean we're looking at an impact gentle enough to not send big bits to the bottom, less than 12G to not set the ELT off, but solid enough not let anyone on board switch on the ELT if inclined to do so, nor deploy slides/rafts and trail an EPIRB. Does that sound about right?

[Andu]

Any yachtie will tell you that there are literally hundreds of containers that have washed overboard from container ships and that are "lurking just below the surface". I find myself wishing that Tony Abbott had held off from announcing this development until a P3 crew had confirmed the objects were indeed from the MAS 777.

He hasn't, so now I find myself hoping that he got a "set in stone" guarantee from the satellite analysis experts that the debris is not just some junk that's got nothing to do with the 777. If this sighting turns out to be a fizzer, despite all his carefully guarded qualifications to his announcement, he will be made to suffer and to look a total fool by his always ready to criticise political opponents - lead (I hasten to add) by the National Broadcaster.

[fox niner]

Today is equinox. So if the search area is at about 90 degrees east, the sun will set at 1200Z is the search area.

The FMS of the 777 is capable of lat-long insertion as waypoints, so that LNAV can be directed towards a specific location on the globe.

For 41 degrees south and 85 degrees east, the format has to be: S41E085.

[A69]

Here's the satellite images released by Australian authorities.
bit.ly/1ds9Ij4

[pharmaboy]

FWIW, at the press conference when answering it is "just a blob" - he held his hand in a narrow fashion - ie elongated blob. Seemed to think better of whatever he was going to say , then said the blob comment.

Elongated blob would fulfill fuselage shape - though cannot imagine for a second that that would float, but perhaps he changed his description mid sentence because that's what it would sound like

[mm43]

The 180°M Theory

Back in Post #5970 I formed the opinion after looking at wind and magnetic variation, that the heading was set to 180°M when the aircraft was about 200NM west of Banda Aceh, Sumatra.

The winds between 10°S & 20°S were from the east, but from 30°S the westerly jet stream started to have and effect, and became the major factor by 40°S.

On top of that was a rapidly changing variation the further south the aircraft progressed, starting at 1°W near the equator and progressing to 30°W near 45°S. The track that was produced included most of that, and it was then that I decided that the heading had been set to 180°M off Aceh.

There had been no mention of 180°M until I posted the graphic.

[bud leon]

D.S You may choose to build a damning case against the Malaysians because of that possible singular contradiction but I'm not prepared to form an opinion simply by relying on media hearsay. I'd say you might be showing some confirmation bias.

There is no doubt they are not as polished as western spokespeople who not only are speaking in their own tongue but are also highly trained in media communication and issues management. They may even have made some mistakes, they are human like everyone else.

But taking the helicoptor view, ignoring the speculation of vain experts-for-rent and journalists tasked with selling advertising space in an information vacuum, what I see is an evolution of the search area as increasing amounts of information has become available and verified. There is no doubt lessons can be learned from this but casting the Malaysians as conspiratorial, face-saving incompetents is not only lazy and aggressive, it is one way not to learn lessons.

[Skyring66]

The Australian Prime Minister has been guarded in his comments. From the Sydney Morning Herald:

"The Australian maritime safety authority has received information based on satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search," Mr Abbott said.
"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified."
"I should tell the House - and we must keep this in mind - the task of locating these objects will be extremely difficult and it may turn out that they are not related to the search for flight MH370," Mr Abbott said.

Several objects - the largest 24m - have been located on satellite and aircraft despatched to see if they can find them and identify them. Abbott is making an announcement to satisfy intense media interest but is certainly not going to have egg on his face if they turn out to be something quite different.

I doubt, however, that such an announcement would have been made if the objects looked like shipping containers. Australia has been conducting maritime search and rescues in high southern latitudes for many years and have a good record. These people know what they are about, but obviously until someone has a close look at the objects, we won't know more.

Interesting that the objects were described as "awash" or under the surface. To be able to determine that from satellite imagery says a lot about the quality of the images.

[mickjoebill]

The Australian PM announced it, does he have the mail or has he made a fool out of himself for PR purposes? time will tell.

so now I find myself hoping that he got a "set in stone" guarantee from the satellite analysis experts that the debris is not just some junk that's got nothing to do with the 777. If this sighting turns out to be a fizzier, despite all his carefully guarded qualifications to his announcement, he will be made to suffer and to look a total fool by his always ready to criticise political opponents - lead

It wasn't the PMs decision to move all of the aerial assets to the new location and callout more aircraft including one that will be flying at night.
He has told the world why the planes have suddenly moved out of the original search area.

The potential target had been identified by the specialists who are familiar enough with analysing aerial images and the PM as well as the military and civilian commanders, during the press conference, repeated that it may not be wreckage.

They also said that the weather was poor and they may not be able to find it.

We have been warned that SAR in open ocean is very difficult.
Suggest Ppruners who do not have access to the content and context of the press conferences take note! If we want transparency and timely updates don't shoot the messenger!

In respect to US journos giving blow by blow from the jump seat of search planes, the US news media is very competitive and they will risk being wrong to be first and have no problem being dramatic at the expense of being dogmatic.

[500N]

"Interesting to see the photos are taken 16-March at 0416Zulu"


I got the impression at the media conference that they had had these images for a short while even though they didn't admit it and they had analysed and re analysed them before releasing them.

[mmurray]

Satellite pictures on ABC (Australia) website

Here.

[Terry Dactil]

This may help in understanding the situation.

[Anti Skid On]

Thanks MMurray

They have better eyes than me then -it doesn't look like anything, even the white patterns at the side look similar.

[Razoray]

They have better eyes than me then -it doesn't look like anything, even the white patterns at the side look similar.

You need to bring a magnifying glass to the image. If you have an Apple computer the glass is built in. Distinct formations in the image suggest it is something other than a container or junk. Especially a cross section in the rear of the object....the tail?

[Wantion]

Having trouble seeing anything in those images ..other than its something...personally I would have kept it a low key finding until verified.

Hope they know more than us...and it is something tangible!

[Oldmate]

What is the approximate length of a B777 slideraft?

[ChrisW67]

I participated in an AP-3C SAR mission for a sailor overboard in the Indian Ocean (two decades back, he was found). It strikes me that the chances of finding a 24 metre long object are reasonable if it is still floating, they have some idea of surface currents, and the weather holds. A lone bobbing head, lifejacket, or seat cushion not so much, but a debris field of the smaller items should be detectable.

I hope it really is a wing or tail and floating detritus rather than a shipping container.

[slats11]

Three reasons I am hopeful this is real
1. They stressed there were multiple objects close by. That suggests they have not been in he water for that long. Over time objects will separate. There is not that much traffic in that part of the world. Wreckage from a tsunami will not still be floating in formation.
2. I continue to believe there was corroborating evidence that refined the Inmarsat data.
3. Aust PM has gone out on a limb. He has also put Malaysian PM under some pressure - if some theories are thrown into doubt, others become more likely. Not that this pressure on Malaysian PM was the purpose, but it is an inevitable consequence. So I believe he feels he is on strong ground.

[DespairingTraveller]

I think its a little odd that they are saying this debris is 24m long...its a bit precise isn't it? Why not say about 25m - can they really measure such an item by satellite to such a degree of accuracy?

Translation of a dimension originally marked up as 80 feet (by a US analyst, possibly) would do that.

We see lots of that sort of thing in the UK, where the metric and imperial systems are co-existing in an unhappy marriage and are frequently quoted side-by-side. It's by no means uncommon to see a measurement which is clearly a rounded number in one system being unthinkingly translated to some ludicrously precise value in the other... From humble recipe books on up.

[Perth_WA]

AMSA Satellite images

View the Satellite images here:

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/inciden...0718_01_14.jpg

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/inciden...0718_02_14.jpg