Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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FLASH: Possible breakthrough
The Australian-led search for the missing Malaysian Airlines flight has had an apparent breakthrough, with satellite images showing two objects in waters off Perth.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott told Parliament on Thursday afternoon that an Australian P-3 Orion aircraft had been diverted to check out the objects and would be followed by other planes.
The first Orion was due to arrive on the scene about 2pm, he said.
Mr Abbott stressed it was not yet clear whether they were parts of the plane.
But Mr Abbott described the breakthrough as "new and credible information."
"The Australian maritime safety authority has received information based on satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search," Mr Abbott said.
"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified."
Mr Abbott said he had informed his Malaysian counterpart, Prime Minister Najib Razak, and promised to keep him updated.
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority, which is co-ordinating the search, has called a news conference for 3.30pm.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott told Parliament on Thursday afternoon that an Australian P-3 Orion aircraft had been diverted to check out the objects and would be followed by other planes.
The first Orion was due to arrive on the scene about 2pm, he said.
Mr Abbott stressed it was not yet clear whether they were parts of the plane.
But Mr Abbott described the breakthrough as "new and credible information."
"The Australian maritime safety authority has received information based on satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search," Mr Abbott said.
"Following specialist analysis of this satellite imagery, two possible objects related to the search have been identified."
Mr Abbott said he had informed his Malaysian counterpart, Prime Minister Najib Razak, and promised to keep him updated.
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority, which is co-ordinating the search, has called a news conference for 3.30pm.
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@readmyacars plot of ectrapolated ping points based on speed.
John Young AMSA briefing
John Young AMSA (Emergency response division) briefing was very interesting.
Acting on information from NTSB He explained that:
Quote:
"Regular messages from the aircraft, at approximately hourly intervals during its flight. Those transmission were detected by a communications satellite over the indian ocean and with the time of those communications and the distance, Then clarified "They can't plot exact distance but sequentially they can be build up into a route the aircraft took."
The wording here is crucial, it implies that all pings were received and from that, a 'join the dots' plot can be derived. This would be the first confirmation that all pings were received, not just the last one!
Unless the Australians are assuming this is what NTSB has done, this would indicate the aircraft has been plotted heading due south or of course due North as the arcs are mirrored!
John Young AMSA (Emergency response division) briefing was very interesting.
Acting on information from NTSB He explained that:
Quote:
"Regular messages from the aircraft, at approximately hourly intervals during its flight. Those transmission were detected by a communications satellite over the indian ocean and with the time of those communications and the distance, Then clarified "They can't plot exact distance but sequentially they can be build up into a route the aircraft took."
The wording here is crucial, it implies that all pings were received and from that, a 'join the dots' plot can be derived. This would be the first confirmation that all pings were received, not just the last one!
Unless the Australians are assuming this is what NTSB has done, this would indicate the aircraft has been plotted heading due south or of course due North as the arcs are mirrored!
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ABC News - Thursday, 20 March 2014
Possible debris found in Indian Ocean, says Prime Minister Tony Abbott
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Just on australian radio now
Possible debris found in Indian Ocean, says Prime Minister Tony Abbott
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Just on australian radio now
Last edited by harrryw; 20th Mar 2014 at 03:35. Reason: add link
Sprucegoose
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Evidence to date suggests the a/c was not lost by a simple Pan Am 103 bomb or other catastrophic airframe failure.
I suspect that if they are able to recover the FDR we will find a fairly benign situation that has gone horribly wrong. Prior to AF447 who would have thought a perfectly good aircraft would have descended from cruise level into the Ocean?
As for the CVR, I am expecting nothing but silence (as the loop has been overwritten).
Having read the entire 320 pages, I am looking forward to some definitive answers, if indeed they are able to recover the flight recorders.
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Am guessing that the new radar data likely came from the Andaman Islands base which is why the donor wishes to remain anonymous.
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I was just about to say the Australians could be relied upon to find the plane if it was in the area they were searching...
Hopefully the Orion has spotted something, the aircraft will have been over it now for over 30 minutes.
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Map Update
D.S. Map updated with new route, thanks very much for the suggestion. This also raises the GS to 426 kots.
I have added the Due South Theory, which as it turns out, if the aircraft tracks via 200 NW Penang at a GS of 426 kts and then via BEDAX and hits the Inmarsat intercept line at 0011 (0811 local) still at 426 knots it works very closely.
But I still think that IGARI - 200 NW PENANG @ 426 gs is a bit slow.
fg32 the Inmarsat intercept look pretty good given the inherant inaccuracy in how precise it can be. What we do know is that there was no signal at 0111, so we have at last got a boundary to work with.
I have added the Due South Theory, which as it turns out, if the aircraft tracks via 200 NW Penang at a GS of 426 kts and then via BEDAX and hits the Inmarsat intercept line at 0011 (0811 local) still at 426 knots it works very closely.
But I still think that IGARI - 200 NW PENANG @ 426 gs is a bit slow.
fg32 the Inmarsat intercept look pretty good given the inherant inaccuracy in how precise it can be. What we do know is that there was no signal at 0111, so we have at last got a boundary to work with.
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This Australian announcement strikes me as significant as I cannot see why the Australian PM would be in a rush to get it out before confirmation via the P3C; there unless they were fairly certain it was wreckage.
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The P3 is going to eyeball possible debris sighted by a high res satellite. I'd be guessing that some of the high res satellites available could read serial numbers on floating objects, so there's a very good chance that the P3 crew know exactly what to be looking for.
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I wouldn't say he was in a rush. More keeping everyone informed in a calm manner with (as someone said in another thread), no embellishment.
Otherwise you would get a media feeding frenzy between when AMSA announces it will hold a press conference and the actual press conference.
Take the "wind out of the sails" so to speak by letting everyone know at the same time ?
Otherwise you would get a media feeding frenzy between when AMSA announces it will hold a press conference and the actual press conference.
Take the "wind out of the sails" so to speak by letting everyone know at the same time ?
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"Provided the debris is reasonably proved to be from MH370, the world's press will be scrambling to charter planes to fly over that area for photos.
Given that these are "uncharted" waters, what chance is there of that? And who has permission-giving rights or will it be a melee?"
Well, if the Aust Gov't releases the photos, no need and removes any chance of a melee.
And what chance has a charter aircraft got of finding by eye sight a spec in the ocean ?
Yes, Australia could declare a no fly zone which they might need to do if you have multiple search aircraft flying around at various levels.
Given that these are "uncharted" waters, what chance is there of that? And who has permission-giving rights or will it be a melee?"
Well, if the Aust Gov't releases the photos, no need and removes any chance of a melee.
And what chance has a charter aircraft got of finding by eye sight a spec in the ocean ?
Yes, Australia could declare a no fly zone which they might need to do if you have multiple search aircraft flying around at various levels.
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Expect ABC24 will cover it
ABC News 24 live stream - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
edit: I believe it might be geoblocked.
ABC News 24 live stream - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
edit: I believe it might be geoblocked.
Last edited by SierraLimaFoxtrot; 20th Mar 2014 at 04:09. Reason: geoblocking
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I'd put the emphasis on the "middle of an ocean" that just happens to be "off the west coast of Australia by 2000+ kms" !
You could also say it was north of the Antarctic !
You could also say it was north of the Antarctic !
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@AndyJS
AndyJS I still can't think of many scenarios explaining how the plane might have ended up off the west coast of Australia