Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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must try harder
Originally Posted by Jilted
There is absolutely no evidence that a new waypoint was entered other than journalist speculation.
Careful, you're both on the verge of appearing to selectively filter information in the public domain to suit your own purpose/bias/beliefs. This isn't a witch-hunt or religious gathering. Science only please fellas...
Start here, work backwards: https://www.google.com/#q=MH370+waypoint+fms+acars
Original source = members of the investigation team, corroborated by US officials. The MH presser "walkback" was in response to a journo whom had misunderstood "commanded left turn into FMS before last comms" to mean "commanded left turn before last comms", two VERY different prospects to which the MH rep correctly responded "there was no left turn prior to last comms", which certain clueless journos then reported as a backtrack on original [actual] statement!!!
For those paying attention, from several days ago:
"ACARS report at 01:07 included unplanned course update with more than one new waypoint entered"
Which is precisely why the language from all authorities around the world immediately shifted to include phrases like:
"deliberate act"
"human intervention"
"act of piracy"
"it is conclusive"
"hijacking or terrorism"
It's all out there, man, if you're not wearing blinkers or bright pink sunnies that is...
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Link to a simple map showing FIR boundaries in that region, if anyone is interested: http://www.swld.com.au/images/air_asia_FIR.jpg
Not a straight line boundary between Thai and Malaysian airspace.
Not a straight line boundary between Thai and Malaysian airspace.
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Link to Suninmyeyes post in this thread:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8387369
Suninmyeyes is a noteworthy individual. He (she?) has made some of the most insightful, meaningful and professional posts I've seen on this fourm.
Suninmyeyes came up with the most likely and best explanation early in the Asiana thread. Major cudos to Sunimmyeyes once again!
One question, how many pings pings are there? I've seen tell of just a final ping being available but there are also reports that the last 2 pings are essentially similar. I know there was one per hour but did that data persist? How about that noise about the plane must be moving to have a ping? Surely they must mean powered up?
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8387369
First off, thanks for your excellent post (#6078 edit: This post number may have changed) @suninmyeyes. Long on facts, short on fantasy...just the way it should be.
Suninmyeyes came up with the most likely and best explanation early in the Asiana thread. Major cudos to Sunimmyeyes once again!
One question, how many pings pings are there? I've seen tell of just a final ping being available but there are also reports that the last 2 pings are essentially similar. I know there was one per hour but did that data persist? How about that noise about the plane must be moving to have a ping? Surely they must mean powered up?
Last edited by lakedude; 19th Mar 2014 at 23:03.
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"Why is aviation reporting so challenging for the media?"
At last, a question on the thread I can help with.
Anybody who knows something in depth finds that the media treatment of their specialism usually falls somewhere between incomprehension and incompetence. It's not just aviation, although I suspect the more complex systems that are involved, the more the media are inclined to treat it as witchcraft.
At last, a question on the thread I can help with.
Anybody who knows something in depth finds that the media treatment of their specialism usually falls somewhere between incomprehension and incompetence. It's not just aviation, although I suspect the more complex systems that are involved, the more the media are inclined to treat it as witchcraft.
One "fact" that has not been mentioned much here is the (supposed) radio contact between MH 370 and another aircraft in which an MH 370 pilot (likely the FO) was reported to be "mumbling".
As reported (and the source seems to be MISSING MH370: Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times on 9 March):
- the pilot was ahead of MH370
- they were asked by Vietnamese flight control to contact MH 370 just after 1.30am to ask its position, as the Vietnamese could not locate the aircraft
- they did so and established contact: "We managed to establish contact with MH370 just after 1.30am and asked them if they have transferred into Vietnamese airspace."
- but: "There were a lot of interference ... static ... but I heard mumbling from the other end. That was the last time we heard from them, as we lost the connection."
- "The voice on the other side could have been either Captain Zaharie (Ahmad Shah, 53,) or Fariq (Abdul Hamid, 27), but I was sure it was the copilot"
- "Following the silence, a repeat request was made by the Vietnamese authorities to try establishing contact with them."
Based on the timing, the reported destination (NRT), the statement that the aircraft was a 777 and was "far into Vietnamese airspace when he was asked to relay" and the fact that the pilot knew enough to recognise the voices on MH 370, the relevant flight would appear to be MAS 88, KUL-NRT, a 772, scheduled dep 23:35, which was near Da Nang at that time.
**If** this indeed occurred, it seems to me to be pretty important in working out causation as it would show:
- there was something wrong enough to cause incoherence and, it seems likely, no further subsequent contact;
- radio working, with Fariq speaking; but
- crucially: there is no attempt by MH 370 to hide itself (e.g. by simply not answering) and indeed there is action inconsistent with an attempt at stealth
The latter would be hard to reconcile with a rogue flight deck or intruder bent on stealth, unless it is the aftermath of a scenario similar to FedEx 705 with either: a rogue left able to fly stealthily and who does so, or no-one left able to continue flying.
So it would seem to be a major factor in pruning the probability tree to either (1) an accident with incomplete recovery due to incapacitation or (2) an intentional incident on the flight deck that left Fariq able to make that contact but then (a) left no-one able to aviate or (b) left someone aviate who was unable to or chose not to make contact.
So: what is the source and status of this "fact"? I haven't been able to find anything "official" (for what that's worth), but it seems unlikely that the NST would print something like that if it were complete fiction.
As reported (and the source seems to be MISSING MH370: Pilot: I established contact with plane - General - New Straits Times on 9 March):
- the pilot was ahead of MH370
- they were asked by Vietnamese flight control to contact MH 370 just after 1.30am to ask its position, as the Vietnamese could not locate the aircraft
- they did so and established contact: "We managed to establish contact with MH370 just after 1.30am and asked them if they have transferred into Vietnamese airspace."
- but: "There were a lot of interference ... static ... but I heard mumbling from the other end. That was the last time we heard from them, as we lost the connection."
- "The voice on the other side could have been either Captain Zaharie (Ahmad Shah, 53,) or Fariq (Abdul Hamid, 27), but I was sure it was the copilot"
- "Following the silence, a repeat request was made by the Vietnamese authorities to try establishing contact with them."
Based on the timing, the reported destination (NRT), the statement that the aircraft was a 777 and was "far into Vietnamese airspace when he was asked to relay" and the fact that the pilot knew enough to recognise the voices on MH 370, the relevant flight would appear to be MAS 88, KUL-NRT, a 772, scheduled dep 23:35, which was near Da Nang at that time.
**If** this indeed occurred, it seems to me to be pretty important in working out causation as it would show:
- there was something wrong enough to cause incoherence and, it seems likely, no further subsequent contact;
- radio working, with Fariq speaking; but
- crucially: there is no attempt by MH 370 to hide itself (e.g. by simply not answering) and indeed there is action inconsistent with an attempt at stealth
The latter would be hard to reconcile with a rogue flight deck or intruder bent on stealth, unless it is the aftermath of a scenario similar to FedEx 705 with either: a rogue left able to fly stealthily and who does so, or no-one left able to continue flying.
So it would seem to be a major factor in pruning the probability tree to either (1) an accident with incomplete recovery due to incapacitation or (2) an intentional incident on the flight deck that left Fariq able to make that contact but then (a) left no-one able to aviate or (b) left someone aviate who was unable to or chose not to make contact.
So: what is the source and status of this "fact"? I haven't been able to find anything "official" (for what that's worth), but it seems unlikely that the NST would print something like that if it were complete fiction.
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@Tokenbird
Fascinating that the reported flight track appear to follow the FIR boundaries. Would be great to overlay the track on your FIR map. The U turn when a/c touched the Indonesian FIR could be consistent with evasion. This would make sense if pilot thought he might have a tail/intercept/monitored after his crossing of the peninsula. If there was a low altitude over the Peninsula and Straits it would also be consistent with radar evasion. I think we have to give evasion a high probability given the known/likely data points.
Fascinating that the reported flight track appear to follow the FIR boundaries. Would be great to overlay the track on your FIR map. The U turn when a/c touched the Indonesian FIR could be consistent with evasion. This would make sense if pilot thought he might have a tail/intercept/monitored after his crossing of the peninsula. If there was a low altitude over the Peninsula and Straits it would also be consistent with radar evasion. I think we have to give evasion a high probability given the known/likely data points.
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@ xcitation
I've created such a picture on my flight planning software but didn't want to put the picture up here because my software provider might not want me posting screenshots of their software on the internet.
I've created such a picture on my flight planning software but didn't want to put the picture up here because my software provider might not want me posting screenshots of their software on the internet.
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@auraflyer
Authorities hopefully have pulled the CVR from that flight that reported "mumbled contact". If not then it will have been overwritten, however a recording of the channel by a ground station might be available. Either way I am sure it has been analyzed in great detail as it would potentially be a very significant piece of evidence.
Authorities hopefully have pulled the CVR from that flight that reported "mumbled contact". If not then it will have been overwritten, however a recording of the channel by a ground station might be available. Either way I am sure it has been analyzed in great detail as it would potentially be a very significant piece of evidence.
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Oi vey
MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled - Latest - New Straits Times
According to this article the reason that ACARS was switched off was because it was a flight to China and the ACARS service provider used by Air Malaysia does not cover China.
According to this article the reason that ACARS was switched off was because it was a flight to China and the ACARS service provider used by Air Malaysia does not cover China.
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I am not a pilot (I'm not considering flight simming for 24.5 years as being a professional pilot 
)
Theories I heard / read and ruled out (due to my logical approach and analysis of available information and / or simming experience)
1. Kidnapping by aliens
-> Oh, c'mon!
2. Landing at any airfield (especially Diego Garcia or airfields with short rwy)
-> Really? There would have been a bunch of people to notice that. Even if it was Diego Garcia: after such a long time something would have leaked to the media.
3. Iran or North Korea (or any "suspect" country / terrorist "club") captured the plane
-> Sorry, this is way out of their imagination. Although this might have given them the idea for future ops
4. Items in cargo hold might have been of interest for the pilots (or any suspicious persons / groups)
-> this would have required a landing (see point 2.)
5. Pax (IT specialists) might have been of interest for the pilots (or any suspicious persons / groups)
-> this would have required a landing (see point 2.)
6. An experiment was carried out
-> Stealth features on a pax plane? Way out of technological capabilities.
7. Fire (especially on main gear)?
-> Radar data (assuming those are correct) showed that the plane climbed above planned FL. Why should a pilot do this in case of a fire?
8. (has been ruled out already) the plane might have been sighted near Maledives.
-> Last contact was around 1:20 near Malaysia. Flight to Male would have been 5hrs - maybe 6hrs. That would be around 7:00/8:00 Malaysia time or 4:00/5:00 Maledives local time. How can somebody identify that aircraft in the dark?
9. Zaharie Ahmad Shah used his self-made simulator for approaches to Indian, Sri Lankan destinations as well as Diego Garcia / Male
-> So what? Not mentioned in the media: which other airports he used to approach? I like island-hopping in my sim. Diego Garcia and Male were also on my list. Am I suspicious now?
Did I miss some speculation? My approach is to wait for the analysis. In the case of AF447 it took more than two years. In the meantime I just "enjoy" ruling out any theory that isn't logical. It's a shame that so many people that call themselves "specialists" or "professional analysts" start to create their own stories to get some attention when so many humans are missing.
)Theories I heard / read and ruled out (due to my logical approach and analysis of available information and / or simming experience)
1. Kidnapping by aliens
-> Oh, c'mon!
2. Landing at any airfield (especially Diego Garcia or airfields with short rwy)
-> Really? There would have been a bunch of people to notice that. Even if it was Diego Garcia: after such a long time something would have leaked to the media.
3. Iran or North Korea (or any "suspect" country / terrorist "club") captured the plane
-> Sorry, this is way out of their imagination. Although this might have given them the idea for future ops
4. Items in cargo hold might have been of interest for the pilots (or any suspicious persons / groups)
-> this would have required a landing (see point 2.)
5. Pax (IT specialists) might have been of interest for the pilots (or any suspicious persons / groups)
-> this would have required a landing (see point 2.)
6. An experiment was carried out
-> Stealth features on a pax plane? Way out of technological capabilities.
7. Fire (especially on main gear)?
-> Radar data (assuming those are correct) showed that the plane climbed above planned FL. Why should a pilot do this in case of a fire?
8. (has been ruled out already) the plane might have been sighted near Maledives.
-> Last contact was around 1:20 near Malaysia. Flight to Male would have been 5hrs - maybe 6hrs. That would be around 7:00/8:00 Malaysia time or 4:00/5:00 Maledives local time. How can somebody identify that aircraft in the dark?
9. Zaharie Ahmad Shah used his self-made simulator for approaches to Indian, Sri Lankan destinations as well as Diego Garcia / Male
-> So what? Not mentioned in the media: which other airports he used to approach? I like island-hopping in my sim. Diego Garcia and Male were also on my list. Am I suspicious now?
Did I miss some speculation? My approach is to wait for the analysis. In the case of AF447 it took more than two years. In the meantime I just "enjoy" ruling out any theory that isn't logical. It's a shame that so many people that call themselves "specialists" or "professional analysts" start to create their own stories to get some attention when so many humans are missing.
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Tokenbird
I've created such a picture on my flight planning software but didn't want to put the picture up here because my software provider might not want me posting screenshots of their software on the internet.
I've created such a picture on my flight planning software but didn't want to put the picture up here because my software provider might not want me posting screenshots of their software on the internet.
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Egypt Air ground accident
http://www.civilaviation.gov.eg/acci...9-09-2012a.pdf
The entire report and easily could be the issue!
The entire report and easily could be the issue!
@ Interested Party - RUBBISH...
To clarify incorrect information that leads to the wrong scenarios and assumptions:
- I have asked pilot friends and between us we have over 100,000 commercial hours. None of us know how to turn the Acars off in the flight deck. Cannot be done.
- I have asked pilot friends and between us we have over 100,000 commercial hours. None of us know how to turn the Acars off in the flight deck. Cannot be done.
Really.... try MFD > COMM > MANAGER > ACARSFour clicks and ACARS is OFF
(to clarify - this does NOT turn off the transceiver, since ACARS is simply a SOURCE for the selected transceiver unit, which incidentally can be ANY of the VHF, HF or SAT radios fitted, but I'm not going to explain all the mode select logic here...)
Last edited by GarageYears; 19th Mar 2014 at 23:27.
If acars is shutdown that way does it send a report? Can the comms channels not just be switched off?
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@GarageYears
I mentioned the speculations I was aware of. My opinion is -sshhhh, nobody should know it right now - that the aircraft finally crashed. It may be that one (or several) of the crew had intentions to land the aircraft somewhere (I'm not ruling out this rumour) but it did not come true (again: my opinion). Might be the pilot lost control in low level flight (unlikely) or the aircraft ran out of fuel. Still speculations and not founded on any evidence.