Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
OK, jean. OK eliptic.
If captain heads for Langkawi with a catastrophe on his hands, where did it end up? What's your thought on that? Had it landed there, or on that island, a trace would by now probably have been found.
If not, why not?
Second point: if it goes down in the first two hours of flight, signficant amount of fuel on board.
If captain heads for Langkawi with a catastrophe on his hands, where did it end up? What's your thought on that? Had it landed there, or on that island, a trace would by now probably have been found.
If not, why not?
Second point: if it goes down in the first two hours of flight, signficant amount of fuel on board.
1995 era code on an aircraft is perfectly hackable; quite easy in fact.
I spent time working with the 744 FADEC Software so I do know at least a little about what I talk about (as well as having time on the 737 Classic).
To criticize code in the sense of vintage is a complete misnomer. Software tools in the mid 80's were starting to get very serious in terms of system provability and verification, and the Ada compilers were excellent in picking up all sorts of nasty things (static and dynamic). All the development teams were isolated and all produced seriously good provable engineering.
Yes, time has moved on since those early days, but essentially most of the work stands intact as well it should.
Rogue data insertion into the architecture would be completely non-trivial.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Birmingham, UK
Posts: 58
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Indian radar
It's remarkable that India's radar covering the Andaman Islands was turned off at the time MH370 might have flown over because apparently "it was too expensive" too keep it on all the time, although I'm sure they really didn't want to have to reveal that information.
It makes you wonder how many other countries' radar systems are not all they're cracked up to be, which would of course improve the chances of MH370 having successfully flown over other areas.
It makes you wonder how many other countries' radar systems are not all they're cracked up to be, which would of course improve the chances of MH370 having successfully flown over other areas.
Can anyone confirm where the search for underwater ELT pings has occurred?
A strong contender is loss of control and nose dive into shallow water with wreckage jn the 20-40 meter thick mud.
Can the ping be received if it is buried in a few meters of mud?
In the loss of control scenarios (bomb, fire, mechanical) and suicide, it is feasible that massive in flight disintegration need not occur and like Egypt air it impacts nose first, leaving very little floating wreckage or fuel slick. Particularly in the marshy areas around Malacca straights.
In respect to the sat pings they are not verifiable, is the transmitter attached to the airframe? Also no way of knowing if the transmissions have been cloned.
In respect to the claim that a unique un-hackable and secure address is attached to the ping I submit the theory the protocols are not battle hardened to withstand a 21st Century hijacking.
Mickjoebill
A strong contender is loss of control and nose dive into shallow water with wreckage jn the 20-40 meter thick mud.
Can the ping be received if it is buried in a few meters of mud?
If that suggestion of a fire and no comms is correct, then surely it would have come down in the sea and there would be debris?
In respect to the sat pings they are not verifiable, is the transmitter attached to the airframe? Also no way of knowing if the transmissions have been cloned.
In respect to the claim that a unique un-hackable and secure address is attached to the ping I submit the theory the protocols are not battle hardened to withstand a 21st Century hijacking.
Mickjoebill
Last edited by mickjoebill; 17th Mar 2014 at 21:59.
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Southampton, UK
Posts: 4
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
@RifRaf3, what problems do you identify with it?
I'm also inclined to believe that it was catastrophic failure at approximately 01.21.
The confusing picture built up by Malaysian radar data describing flight to the west would fit the presence of a SIA (or other) 777, although you would expect this to have been thoroughly checked.
At a shallow depth, it fits with the timeline, and fits with the oil rig account.
The problems I see are apparent lack of wreckage, the possibility of tidy ACARS shutdown (still claimed?), and what would seem to be the slim chance of functioning Inmarsat equipment in the sea after the catastrophic destruction of the AC. There's also the question of why such huge efforts have been made pursuing anything but this obvious, Occam's razor scenario.
The missing piece would seem to be the six other satellite pings. If they were all the same range, then I can't see any other possibility.
I'm also inclined to believe that it was catastrophic failure at approximately 01.21.
The confusing picture built up by Malaysian radar data describing flight to the west would fit the presence of a SIA (or other) 777, although you would expect this to have been thoroughly checked.
At a shallow depth, it fits with the timeline, and fits with the oil rig account.
The problems I see are apparent lack of wreckage, the possibility of tidy ACARS shutdown (still claimed?), and what would seem to be the slim chance of functioning Inmarsat equipment in the sea after the catastrophic destruction of the AC. There's also the question of why such huge efforts have been made pursuing anything but this obvious, Occam's razor scenario.
The missing piece would seem to be the six other satellite pings. If they were all the same range, then I can't see any other possibility.
The Langkawi scenario would imply incapacitation and continued flight either until fuel exhaustion, or a/c breakup, or loss of control. That's wide open as far as search areas are concerned. If cockpit smoke is so severe as to destroy landing capability a a climb into thinner air might be a last ditch attempt to extinguish the smoke.
Mickjoebill:
If it's underwater, and if the nose hits first, I'd expect the tail not to be buried. IIRC, tail is where FDR and CVR are mounted. (If wrong on location, apologies). By the time the wreckage hits the bottom, acceleration in the "down" direction would be pretty small. Granted, once in a bit of mud, sound of acoustic beacon pings would be muffled, no idea as to the dB loss.
How deep is the water in your consideration of "shallow water." (Muddy bottom granted in the area I think you are talking about).
Dozens of pages ago, a very succinct explanation was provided of how an aircraft at those speeds find hitting water a lot like hitting land, in terms of the decel at impact on the water's surface. FWIW.
If it's underwater, and if the nose hits first, I'd expect the tail not to be buried. IIRC, tail is where FDR and CVR are mounted. (If wrong on location, apologies). By the time the wreckage hits the bottom, acceleration in the "down" direction would be pretty small. Granted, once in a bit of mud, sound of acoustic beacon pings would be muffled, no idea as to the dB loss.
How deep is the water in your consideration of "shallow water." (Muddy bottom granted in the area I think you are talking about).
Dozens of pages ago, a very succinct explanation was provided of how an aircraft at those speeds find hitting water a lot like hitting land, in terms of the decel at impact on the water's surface. FWIW.
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 665
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It is feasible that savvy cabin crew survived the 45000ft excursion
In a cabin above 40,000', surviving beyond a few seconds is a full time business involving pressure breathing and a real oxygen mask (like a fighter pilot would wear) with pressure breathing capability that pins the mask so tightly to the face with an overcentre lever, it's almost painful. If you're not familiar with the term 'pressure breathing', look it up; it's possibly on Wiki.
It would also, very quickly, become unbelievably cold. And I mean COLD, to the point of incapacitation.
More Data Please
- Distance readouts and times from all Inmarsat pings
- 3D Primary radar position readouts and times from at least Malaysia and hopefully Thailand, Indonesia, Burma, China and India if willing to share.
We can then apply DR or a compass to plot possible positions on the various ping arcs. It may even be possible to eliminate one of the 8:11 arcs -- or perhaps shorten them.
North arc possibilities include: CFIT, hard landing, clandestine landing perhaps with a serious quantity of tarps or paint or sand to cover up. Planes trying to stay below radar in the dark in the Himalayas or Pamirs have a good chance of hitting one of them.
South arc: ditch in open ocean or bay of a French rocky island or hard landing -- or plunge into ocean.
I suspect spysats have already had a careful look over the TAAF, terres australes et antarctiques francaises.
How many months would it take for cushions, baggage etc. to drift to the Patagonian fiords? How long would it take for somebody to spot any of it there?
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: NJ
Age: 43
Posts: 52
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
jumpjim. ty for trying to uplink sense to my brain...
but i'm still asea, and based upon "no such thing as a stupid question"
(well maybe except this thread)
perhaps you (or someone) could kindly painstakingly address this:
Q: What EXACTLY are THEY talking about when they reference and discuss the so-called "pre-programmed left turn"....
pre-programmed means what? when? where???
TY (and if u reply u believe there was no such datapoint reported on those terms, thats a good answer too)
but i'm still asea, and based upon "no such thing as a stupid question"
(well maybe except this thread)
perhaps you (or someone) could kindly painstakingly address this:
Q: What EXACTLY are THEY talking about when they reference and discuss the so-called "pre-programmed left turn"....
pre-programmed means what? when? where???
TY (and if u reply u believe there was no such datapoint reported on those terms, thats a good answer too)
I would not rule out a crash into shallow water followed by burial into mud near the point of loss of transponder, but I feel that the evidence of a left turn over the peninsular is stronger. The oil rig 'sighting' is very weak and is offset by other 'sightings' including radar in the opposite directions.
The burial scenario is so total, that unless something like fuel seeps to the surface it has very low probability of exposure and makes searching somewhat futile.
It's like the man at night who lost his wallet and was searching under a streetlight. When asked why he was searching there he answered, "because it's the only place that I'm likely to find it".
In the fire scenario, the ACARS would have had only partial disablement in the climb to account for the later pings and this is all very unlikely. But then whatever occurred is also going to be very unlikely.
The burial scenario is so total, that unless something like fuel seeps to the surface it has very low probability of exposure and makes searching somewhat futile.
It's like the man at night who lost his wallet and was searching under a streetlight. When asked why he was searching there he answered, "because it's the only place that I'm likely to find it".
In the fire scenario, the ACARS would have had only partial disablement in the climb to account for the later pings and this is all very unlikely. But then whatever occurred is also going to be very unlikely.
Freight God
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: LS-R54A
Posts: 307
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I'd advise people to disregard the above quoted. It is wholly wrong on several points. I speak from years of experience operating several different types of medium / long range air defence radars,associated command systems and datalinks. The bread & butter is in the "blips" - the track idents come afterwards in many cases. I could go on but that would be a bit naughty.
I am sure you could go on a bit. So could I!
If the aircraft has NOT been destroyed with the loss of all on board there would have been some distressed cell phone traffic. Or am I missing something here.
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 152
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
different perspective
Actually no mysteries needed.
Close to IGARI something went terribly wrong, probably leading to or including severe hypoxia for most souls on board. After things calmed down somebody felt it was not a good idea to go home with this mess on board. So he/she decided to hide the mess. Set a flightpath that doesn't touch land again and select south pole as final destination.
One tends to think this was carefully staged, but maybe it was just pure chaos, and in the end somebody decided that the rest of the world better shouldn't know. Even a flightsim geek would be able to program such a flightpath.
Deliberate action to avoid radar? No way. The MAF had them on their radar all the time, they just didn't care. But that was obviously not an achievement of anybody on board MH370.
Close to IGARI something went terribly wrong, probably leading to or including severe hypoxia for most souls on board. After things calmed down somebody felt it was not a good idea to go home with this mess on board. So he/she decided to hide the mess. Set a flightpath that doesn't touch land again and select south pole as final destination.
One tends to think this was carefully staged, but maybe it was just pure chaos, and in the end somebody decided that the rest of the world better shouldn't know. Even a flightsim geek would be able to program such a flightpath.
Deliberate action to avoid radar? No way. The MAF had them on their radar all the time, they just didn't care. But that was obviously not an achievement of anybody on board MH370.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Altitude may also be problematical depending on their type of height finding equipment.
OleOle, oh so simple, just a means of saving face.
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: fairly close to the colonial capitol
Age: 55
Posts: 1,693
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The ACARS data path choice, by the way, is there primarily due to uplink/downlink costs - it is always cheaper to use VHF.
Oh Dear God 
Now planes apparently can crash from some 35000ft and simply spear into 150ft of water and embed themselves in 60 feet of mud... all without breaking up.
No.
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Surrey
Posts: 12
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Sobering
The rate of theory accumulation on public forums and the Press about this plus the contradictions, confusion, assumptions and tech deep dives plus every possible scenario from those on the flight deck to those who are a pain in the neck ensures one fact:-
This investigation needs to have credible answers soon. If not then let's hope the Press become more interested in other "news" and let investigating agencies do their job and PPRuNe go back to BAU. The chaos following MH370 is set to overtake whatever chaos or drama the flight itself experienced. Real time news and instant "Social media" and crowd sourcing.
Anyone here recall a b&w movie about a guy trapped in a deep hole in the US and as word spread about the ensuing rescue a small town sprung up at the site of the rescue? A real jamboree until his fate was known and he died. The circus moved out. It could have been called MH370. But the industry and families of those aboard will be left to deal with it and learn long after all the clowns move on.
This investigation needs to have credible answers soon. If not then let's hope the Press become more interested in other "news" and let investigating agencies do their job and PPRuNe go back to BAU. The chaos following MH370 is set to overtake whatever chaos or drama the flight itself experienced. Real time news and instant "Social media" and crowd sourcing.
Anyone here recall a b&w movie about a guy trapped in a deep hole in the US and as word spread about the ensuing rescue a small town sprung up at the site of the rescue? A real jamboree until his fate was known and he died. The circus moved out. It could have been called MH370. But the industry and families of those aboard will be left to deal with it and learn long after all the clowns move on.
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: sestos
Age: 71
Posts: 4
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It is on the ground in western Xinjiang.
I have observed all comments here with interest since Saturday 8 March.
The quality of the technical knowledge on Pprune is, for the most part, the best in the world.
The site.....and the 'Mods' deserve great praise.
Tanto nomini nullum par elgoium
I have not posted here for 12 years.
I was a professional pilot. (7000 hours) Before that, a British Army officer. With experience of terrorism.
For the moment I propose this, for discussion:
The aircraft landed safely in western Xinjiang, the homeland of the Uygurs, at about sunrise on Saturday 8 March. On an unpaved desert strip. The passengers are alive. They are hostages. The plane is now in bits and hidden. It is no longer required.
'Echelon' knows this.
The Chinese are looking there.....furiously. For 3 or 4 days.
I will say more tomorrow.
The quality of the technical knowledge on Pprune is, for the most part, the best in the world.
The site.....and the 'Mods' deserve great praise.
Tanto nomini nullum par elgoium
I have not posted here for 12 years.
I was a professional pilot. (7000 hours) Before that, a British Army officer. With experience of terrorism.
For the moment I propose this, for discussion:
The aircraft landed safely in western Xinjiang, the homeland of the Uygurs, at about sunrise on Saturday 8 March. On an unpaved desert strip. The passengers are alive. They are hostages. The plane is now in bits and hidden. It is no longer required.
'Echelon' knows this.
The Chinese are looking there.....furiously. For 3 or 4 days.
I will say more tomorrow.