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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:39
  #5101 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by overthewing View Post
I believe what he's saying is that MH370, with transponder off, is invisible to any other TCAS system switched on nearby. However, MH370 could still have TCAS switched on, and detect any a/c nearby with its transponder working. His TCAS theory holds water, it seems to me.
If your TCAS is on then you are visible to other aircraft.

Last edited by Lord Spandex Masher; 18th Mar 2014 at 03:30.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:40
  #5102 (permalink)  
 
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I think since every second post is about the pings, we need to put that into perspective.
Firstly its very clever and definitely a line of enquiring worth persuing, however it must still be treated with caution, there are some assumptions made just the same as in any other theory.
Firstly the ping is literally just that a ping, it has no identifiable data with it. Its purpose is purely to check a devices readiness it is not limited to just aircraft satcom systems.
The assumptions that have been made in this particular case is that MH370 satcom unit has pinged one hour after its last transmission or acars shutdown and that MH370 was in fact the unidentified military radar target in the malacca strait at the time of the ping. If the assumptions are correct then we listen out for each hourly ping. If on the other hand the assumptions are not for example the ping came from another source say SQ68 bound for Barcelona, then that line of enquiry ends right there.
According to an Inmarsat official quoted by CNN, these handshakes contain a unique code verifying the identity of the aircraft. Indeed, the whole purpose of the handshake is to verify whether the specific aircraft's system is still responding, so what you are proposing makes no sense.

Help from above: Satellite signals can confirm a plane's identity - CNN.com
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:41
  #5103 (permalink)  
 
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@ ALL THE PRESS

There is a distinction between an aircraft engineer and a Flight Engineer. Please use the correct term.

Regards
FE
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:41
  #5104 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Yancey Slide View Post
Thanks for setting me right. Good, measured press release by them, worth others reading
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:43
  #5105 (permalink)  
 
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overthewing,
It's an interesting theory. It may have already been covered, but if MH370 was at FL295, behind another heavy at FL300, how would that work in respect of wake vortex, which descends and spreads laterally behind the leading aircraft?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:44
  #5106 (permalink)  
 
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4. If this was a case of cabin depressurization, and resulting hypoxia, then the aircraft would not have been able to be turned around to another flight path?
Is it possible that the crew were partially incapacitated from insidious hypoxia caused by a slow decompression and tried to reprogramme the FMS to take them back to Kuala Lumpur. However, they failed to do this correctly and the aircraft turned onto an approximately southerly track, taking them past but not to Kuala Lumpur?

With complete unconsciousness and death following some time later for everyone on board, the aircraft just flew on this southerly track until it's fuel ran out, shortly after it gave its last ping, at which point it was positioned on the southern arc.

In other words, could this still possibly be just a terrible accident? No suicides, no hijackers, no nefarious goings on of any kind?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:44
  #5107 (permalink)  
 
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As an "IT Professional" you should know better ! Exactly how long do you think its going to take someone (or rather, as you well know, a number of someones... known as developers !) to (a) come up with a viable algorithm (b) code it (c) test and debug it ........ seriously man ! Its a non-starter of a hairbrained idea to think someone would expend so much resource !
Most image algorithms you would need are part of your basic photoshop or image tools already - there are some you could probably apply from existing freeware tools without more than 10 minutes testing a few sample images.

There are some simple algorithms as a simple sysadmin that I can think of off the top of my head, that no doubt the sorts of people who work in image analysis and geo-mapping software could probably easily do:

1. Simple divide and conquer - take large areas of ocean, divide into uniform sections. In a parallel process apply a simple averaging of each section to reject any that are all ocean or all cloud. Feed the remaining images up for crowd sourcing in the manner tomnod are. I would not be surprised if they are not doing this already.

2. Same process, but use edge detection (as mentioned above) to find interesting sections and feed them up for more analysis.

There are probably more advanced methods that could be used to identify shapes or eliminate other noise, but the above could certainly cut down the workload and its hardly a difficult thing to do with an elastic platform like Amazon or the sorts of environments Google and Facebook have at their disposal.

I think its a bit naive to outright reject something that is quite technically feasible and hardly difficult for someone used to working with this sorts of technology. Especially at the sorts of places that deal with satellite imagery day in day out.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:45
  #5108 (permalink)  
 
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Apparently the last r/t, the "good night", was made by the FO.

Not that that piece of information will help a lot, but it's more interesting than knowing an alleged bizjet mechanic was on board. Obviously every pax is getting thoroughly scrutinized, and the media will jump on everyone with an aviation background, in the absence of other news. No need to discuss that here...
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:45
  #5109 (permalink)  
 
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FE Hoppy said:

There is some confusion now over the gap in the middle as the explanation given at todays press briefing is what we would call "bobbins" in my part of the world.
Bobbins or not, the implication of the press briefing is that max/min speed calculations are among the data that have been used to bound the arcs or corridors. The diagram below shows roughly what was described (note this is not an official document - just my own interpretation of the words used in the press briefing to answer a question about the extent of the corridors):



As others have suggested, clearly there are circular/zig-zag paths that could leave you on the red line inside the minimum range circle - but there may be other data (including earlier "pings") that allow this possibility to be discounted.

Perhaps one of the watching media reps will ask about this at (or before) tomorrow's press briefing.

Last edited by volcanicash; 18th Mar 2014 at 09:42. Reason: Clarify that this is NOT an official document
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:47
  #5110 (permalink)  
 
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The current 'official' operational theory is this plane was, for lack of a better word, 'stolen' by person or persons unknown who knew what they were doing (disable transponder, ACARS, etc., took flight path to avoid radar detection) and who had meticulously planned the operation in advance. A turn west from/after IGARI was entered into the active flight plan in the FMS; this is known as the last ACARS report indicated this waypoint change event.
So, how come the highly knowledgeable careful planning 'perp(s)' left this big fat clue? -yes, perhaps the were unaware ACARS would report a waypoint change event however if one has carefully planned this type of operation one would certainly not do anything out of the ordinary before disabling ACARS.
So, again the Q
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:49
  #5111 (permalink)  
 
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As an "IT Professional" you should know better ! Exactly how long do you think its going to take someone (or rather, as you well know, a number of someones... known as developers !) to (a) come up with a viable algorithm (b) code it (c) test and debug it ........ seriously man ! Its a non-starter of a hairbrained idea to think someone would expend so much resource !

The best you can hope for in that area is that, seeing as they are in the business of analysing satellite images for people trying to hide stuff, the intelligence agencies already have such an algorithm already in-use and that their masters may permit them to use it for this purpose to see what they can come up with (obviously findings would never be publicly released for obvious reasons, but would be passed in some obfuscated form to the nations taking part in the SAR). But I suspect satellite resources in that part of the world may be busy elsewhere.

As for "crowdsourcing" don't make me laugh. Tomnod is no more than marketing PR excercise for its owners. Have you seen the sort of nonsense the "crowdsourcing" community have been highlighting on the images ? People with no SAR and no satellite imagery analysis are not going to come up with anything of remote use.
I'm not an expert in image processing, but when processing these images I would expect that if you find debris you would see a lot of white-ish colors. So already a "simple" color histogram could already indicate anomalies. The only problem then remains that all clouds would also appear as false positives. But maybe these can also be filtered out somehow ? And even if this is not possible you would already eliminate a lot of area to search over. I'm sure there are a lot of algorithms and filters already available to do the job (maybe with some modification).

Maybe tomnod is indeed a PR stunt, that's why I said it could be checked by specialists.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:50
  #5112 (permalink)  
 
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SgtBundy,

A week is a long time in technology.

If something remotely viable and simple to implement could have been done, it would have been done by now. The Tomnod marketing excercise was rolled out in a couple of days.

Fact of the matter is that implementing and debugging algorithms takes some time and effort... and therefore manpower and money.

Add onto that you're expecting satellite companies to retask their satellites for a vast area of fresh imagery..... who's going to pay for that on top of the development manpower for your magic algorithm.

Your optimism and faith in existing "simple algorithms" is commendable, but that's all it is.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:50
  #5113 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Token Bird View Post
Is it possible that the crew were partially incapacitated from insidious hypoxia caused by a slow decompression and tried to reprogramme the FMS to take them back to Kuala Lumpur. However, they failed to do this correctly and the aircraft turned onto an approximately southerly track, taking them past but not to Kuala Lumpur?

With complete unconsciousness and death following some time later for everyone on board, the aircraft just flew on this southerly track until it's fuel ran out, shortly after it gave its last ping, at which point it was positioned on the southern arc.

In other words, could this still possibly be just a terrible accident? No suicides, no hijackers, no nefarious goings on of any kind?
Except (I understand) they have primary radar "confirmation" of a north-easterly course after the westbound one (ie IGARI - VAMPI - GIVAL ....)

Last edited by Golf-Mike-Mike; 17th Mar 2014 at 14:00. Reason: directions
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:51
  #5114 (permalink)  
 
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Xeptu said:

The difficulty is that as the hours tick by the probability of a ping at the expected time becomes more likely that it could be from a different source, particularly towards Europe on the northern arc as aircraft and satcom units start powering up for their days work.
As previous noted, Inmarsat, while declining to discuss specifics of Flight 370, have said that each handshake always contains a code verifying the identity of the aircraft and it is "virtually impossible" to change an aircraft's identifying code or to confuse one aircraft with another. (Source CNN).
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:52
  #5115 (permalink)  
 
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7.5hrs later the last recorded Ping picked up by Imarsat.Means the aircraft was on land and in one piece with power on.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:52
  #5116 (permalink)  
 
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If SQ68 had no message to send, the acars would remain silent and the satcom would ping. There is definitely no identifiable data in a ping

EDIT: If data is to be sent either way then it will be preceded by a connection request (handshake) and yes that has identifiable date of course, I understood we were dealing with a ping.

Last edited by Xeptu; 17th Mar 2014 at 14:07.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:53
  #5117 (permalink)  
 
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shadowing NO

This has been extensively covered and debunked.

A pilot told us he once flew across india shadowing a LARGER aircraft, the post sounded like a military excerise I assumed from it he was in a fighter and the biggy was a tanker.

he stated he had to sit almost under it's wing, now to know that the pair of aircraft must have been in contact with the radars tracking them.

In that scenario the biggy would inform him of any flight path / alt changes about to happen, not the stealth shadowing scenario.

Also you could only shadow from radar in on direction., so if crossing air defence you are still likely to be picked up at radar overlap points.

James bond was not flying it and Cubby Broccoli was not plotting the flight path
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:54
  #5118 (permalink)  
 
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If you're TCAS is on then you are visible to other aircraft.
I'm afraid I don't know enough about TCAS to know what will happen if the a/c using it has no working transponder. Certainly, it won't co-ordinate with nearby TCAS systems as a collision advisory. But does the pilot get to see some kind of display of a/c in the vicinity? Does it still give data, but with no alarms going off?

And I don't think TCAS on /transponder off makes you visible to other a/c? Does it?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:55
  #5119 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone have an editable version of that map and could plot the flight data of SIA68 onto that? I have done some playing around with the flightaware data and can confirm that, if the westwards sightings are half way correct, it could be possible to let MH370 sneak under the radar hood of SIA68 at about IGREX, They could even squawk the same and any radar would interpret these double echos as faulty.

Anyone aware of the radar coverage around IGREX and later NW? If this theory holds, MH370 could sneak out later for i.e. Myanmar or Pakistan or or or ...
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 13:56
  #5120 (permalink)  
 
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No transponders....no TCAS.
Except for MH370, the other Aircraft would never know.
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