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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:31
  #4801 (permalink)  
 
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Can I put the VATSIM idea out there, please, helmet back on again too
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:31
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Turin

The fix ELT on the 777 can be set off manually in the flight deck or by impact (G-switch) The aircraft also carrys 2 ( depending on airline this number) portable 406 MHz ELT. The are activated by water and located by the doors. The have a floatation material over it and an antenna. Unless it is manually release from its stowage it will not float to the surface like a bouy and transmit. so it will sink to the bottom. The CVR and FDR have an ultrasonic beacon bolted on each of the and they will transmit away underwater
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:34
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Wonder if anyone can put the Asia chart up from here

http://www.planningcharts.de/
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:38
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Could a commercial pilot please take us through the following for clarification, which I'm sure has already been covered in the great morass of this thread's history?

Air Traffic Control: Routes are segmented, aren't they? In other words, the pilot's last words were "All right, good night." What was said by ATC in the previous transmission, of which this was the answer? And doesn't it follow that at the time when leaving one segment of ATC, and being handed off to the next, that there is a change of radio frequency, with the next segment expecting the transponder I.D. Wouldn't the a/c be queried by the next ATC? Or does it fly into a blank distance with no ATC? At some point, ATC somewhere must have been calling them repeatedly.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:38
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redmin888

Thanks for the full explanation I wasn't aware of the ability to set the ELT off from the f/d. I'll be looking for that switch tomorrow, be sure.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:44
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Satellite footage from DigitalGlobe, middle of Malacca Strait



Zoom and contrast adj on lower left corner


source : Tomnod
(Replace "challenge" by "api" in url to get the coordinates)
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:46
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Originally Posted by TheShadow
Think in terms of two pilots locked in their cockpit - with only a marginally visible horizon, no altimetry, no heading info, no cockpit lights, no navigability. They tried to turn back once things started to go sour - but once your systems are taken out, you need some sort of roll-out heading advisory. At that westerly turning juncture, having decided to turn back, it all became a world of hurt. No flight instruments make Jack a dull boy. That was probably as good as it would ever get for that hapless crew.
TheShadow ... not sure what you are saying? No altimeter, no heading etc? Even with all of the electronic flight instruments inop you still have your backups. Analog altimeter, artificial horizon, Airspeed, and compass. Everything you need to fly the aircraft.


And the pilots have to have had an awareness of where they were at when everything went down, and a good understanding of the general area. Turn towards land - and fly the aircraft and find an airport.

At altitude, even at night, with generally decent weather, it would seem it should not be that hard to keep the aircraft in the air, find land and an airport ...
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:53
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I dont get it about the angular rings from inmarsat.

There seems to be about 300-450km between each 5 degree ring.

Inmarsat is at 35.786 km altitude. 5 degrees from that will be about 3110km... just would like to se where they get this scaled rings from ?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:58
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This thread has certainly brought out the "analysts" whose textbooks are films like "To Catch a Thief," "James Bond," "Mission Impossible" or the "Oceans #" movies. I would prefer to take instruction from analysts whose "texts" were actual science classes, SAR or aviation experience.

That said, as someone who is a professional in decision analysis, the smart money should be on a chain of events that are consistent with one another. Not a parley bet of several one million-to-one chances.

What appears to be an important chain of consistency in terms of all of the information that we have is that every significant occurrence seems to have the effect, intended or not, of making it harder to track the location of this plane.
  • Comms termination as are crossing FIRs
  • ACARS termination
  • Travel backtrack between Malaysian and Thai airspace at FL295
  • Feint to the north, then heading to the south
I have seen no simple explanation of why all of these strange events should occur other than because some sentient individual is willing them. All of them suggest that this individual doesn't want this plane to be found, ever. If this person wanted to head to the Stans, why didn't they commandeer one of the many flights from KL that head towards Europe? Far few tracks would need to be covered. The idea that this plane secretly landed is beyond far-fetched. Further, I see hundreds of millions of dollars being spent by dozens of governments looking at sea, not at land.

While I have no crystal ball, it seems certain that this individual had to have extensive knowledge of T7 systems, as well as extensive knowledge of flight surveillance systems in SE Asia. This individual would also have to be well-placed to effectuate this plan on the plane. One of the flight deck crew seems to be the most likely possibility. Shooting the companion pilot or getting him off the flight deck and then turning off the A/C packs and opening the outflow would incapacitate everyone behind the flight deck door in short order -- especially if the altitude was in the >FL350 range.

The aforementioned analysis is based on consistent logic. I am not a psychologist and cannot venture a guess as to why this pilot may have done this. Hatred at MAS, hatred at the Malaysian government, upset at home situation -- or perhaps wanted to end his career as a lost icon that lives forever in aviation history -- such as Amelia Earhart or D. B. Cooper.

All of this suggests that this plane headed southwest into the furthest and deepest location of the Indian Ocean -- say halfway between Australia and Diego Garcia. Given the remoteness of this area, its bad weather for surface navigation, and its great depth, this is where the plane was crashed.

While I hold out hope that we may find some floating evidence of the crash, I am betting that in my remaining lifetime the actual plane will not be found, and no final proof will be established as to exactly what happened, or why.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 23:59
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points of reference regarding aircraft data comm systems

Like all modern aircraft with EICAS/ECAM display systems, most of the 777 cockpit panels are merely control interfaces, or in Boeing vernacular, CDU's. The actual units are generally racked in the EE bay and not at all user friendly as to disablement.

The transponders are an easy disable - switch them to standby. Done. However, to prevent the ACARS system from transmitting data requires a bit more work. On the 777, ACARS is an integrated part of the AIMS and as such, has no off switch. One can disable the reporting module of the AIMS by either pulling specific CB's located in the EE bay (ACARS modem), de-racking the primary units (2 - ACARS modem LRU's) located in the EE bay AIMS cabinet, or (simplest method) by accessing the ACARS page on an FMS CDU and switching the data link to an unused frequency, deselecting ACARS downlink, or putting all 3 VHF radios in voice mode.

Similarly the SATCOM system is also fully integrated and while there is a control page available via the FMS CDU, there is no off switch. The cockpit CDU can however change birds and channels, but according to a senior maintenance engineer, this action would trigger a logoff signal to be sent heavenward. That signal is not part of the current set of known facts.

According to information we have so far, it appears the ACARS was disabled, while the SATCOM system remained active, allowing the aircraft to be known to be flying 4-5 hours after last comms were received.

As a side note, under current software revision, there is an FMS CDU page which will show the status of an active SATCOM link - and again going by facts known at this time, the interlopers were likely unaware of this CDU function or failed to understand the system fully. The information so far suggests the interlopers were knowledgeable at least to the level of an experienced 777 pilot, with some additional knowledge of the rarely used FMS pages to disable the ACARS.

Last edited by vapilot2004; 31st Mar 2014 at 22:43. Reason: ACARS correction
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:01
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Position information based on the last received satellite pings has been released.

It seem obvious that if Search and Rescue have position information from theses pings they will have the same information from older pings. From this info they should give a pretty good idea of which direction the aircraft headed.

Why they haven't released the data on the other pings?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:02
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Backseat Dane,

I'm sorry if this has been touched upon before, but a search in this thread for "fake flight plan " doesn't return any hits. So:

Could whoever piloted MH370 have filed a "fake" IFR flight plan for "Whatever flight XXX/Private XXX" in advance and then, when the aircraft had been disappeared over the ocean in an area without ATC and radar coverage, simply present himself as "Whatever flight XXX/Private XXX" in accordance with the filed flight plan to ATC when entering controlled airspace, set the ACs transponder to the designated squawk and then all of a sudden be a legit flight being able to travel in controlled airspace without anyone including military types noticing (for the time being at least)?

Or would ATC know in advance that "Whatever flight XXX/Private XXX" had in fact never taken off from it's filed origin and therefore flag it as trouble? Does - or rather must - the ATC handing the aircraft off into uncontrolled airspace advise the ATC in the other end that "Whatever flight XXX/Private XXX" is approaching in accordance with filed flight plan?

(With a Mode S XPDR I guess you really can't unless ATC doesn't couple the transponders ID with the ICAO database or doesn't notice the discrepancy, but can the pilot of a 777 toggle the transponders mode and run in ie mode A/C?)

((Asking because I'm trying to weed out a conspiracy that's pretty much off the top))
My thoughts also! Especially for an onward flight!

Re my post 4508

Just a thought.
I spent several years building my own aircraft, and although I am pretty competent with electronics, I am by no means an expert.
However I bought an off the shelf mode S transponder, set the hex code myself, installed it then test flew the aircraft. All done with no airframe or avionics experience, as is the case with a lot of home builders out there.
If you were able to smuggle a mode S transponder aboard that T7 I suspect it would be relatively easy for an electronically savvy guy to hook it up and set what ever hex code he desired thereby cloning another aircraft.
I am sure a licensed avionics engineer will shoot me down if I am way off the mark here.
But it may just explain why this guy appears to have been able to fly his aircraft wherever he wanted.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:02
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TFOR 2:

I have been "lost" when X controller forgets to hand me off and eventually I fly out of radio range. After some screwing around I find the freq for Y controller and they either want to know what took me so long or who the hell I am

So........if you wanted to vanish, a freq change is a good place to do it

BTW - For *some* routes, there are sections that have no comms at certain altitudes. New Orleans to Tampa has one such area at 12,000 and below that is about 100 miles long. I do not believe this route is one of these.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:08
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A few hours ago in post #4761 I posted a link to an extremely lucid post in which a gentleman/woman with a clear mind, no apparent agenda, and enough intelligence to know what s/he did and did not know, went to a lot of trouble to write a very long summary of much of what has been covered here, over and over again over hundreds of pages.

When I looked to see if the post had survived moderation, it was still there. But no one had mentioned it in subsequent posts, either to say 'yeah, that guy sure did a useful summary' or the contrary.

Being basically grumpy, I conclude that the bulk of the chatter here is coming from people who just want to see their opinions in writing, and/or have no interest in actually reading what others have posted.

That's my opinion; I've read this thread from page one and have made two other contributions: very early, I researched and posted a link to the Federal Register entry in which the FAA was announcing the AD regarding satcom antenna/skin crack, then the link to that summary.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:15
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Interesting to see the guy who put the fake FR 24 video on youtube dahboo7 had all his videos removed and was almost arrested, he subsequently set up a new Chanel dahboo77 and put all the videos back, some people live on the edge.
I don't think MAS 370 is meant to be found we may never know.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:17
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[QUOTE=alwaysontime;8381491]Some drones are the size of light aircraft and yes several jets have been brought down by light aircraft collisions in the past
QUOTE]

The trick is for the captain to shut down some comms just before the collision have the collision then sign off the current controller with a laconic americanism then put the SSR/ADS to standby. Obviously learned the stiff upper lip from the English school
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:21
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The fix ELT on the 777 can be set off manually in the flight deck or by impact (G-switch)
If someone deliberately hijacked the aircraft they wouldn't want the ELT to activate, so wouldn't use a flight deck switch, and why have such a switch anyway, if you need the ELT you need the ELT, I guess the only reason would be in the case of an accidental activation - heavy landing ? (!!)

If the aircraft has landed deliberately on some secret airstrip, highly unlikely I guess, then it woudn't activate and the same reason as above would apply.

Maybe ? one could land on the ocean, as per the Hudson ditching, softly enough to not activate it, tho' I doubt it, so I guess the only answer is that it has deliberately not been switched on, or activated on contact with the ocean then promptly sank and was swamped. The water activated ones mentioned already are intended for use in liferafts by survivors, I doubt that they too could continue working X-fathoms down.

So - I don't think lack of an ELT signal is too big a mystery ? i.e. it's drowned, or it's deliberately repressed.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:25
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Originally Posted by rigbyrigz
Just from the perspective of technical feasibility, with no real theory (new or proposed) resulting:

a) pilot (or someone) pre-programs left-turn VAMPI before IGARI is reached. This is before 1:07 and so appears as an ACARS event
If the pilot or the F/O had pre-programmed VAMPI after IGARI, then you would see the aircraft turning left over IGARI or, much probably, slightly before IGARI. That simple. This is what you see every day when your aircraft is following the flight plan stored in the FMC. The right turn observed on the secondary radar and confirmed by official sources does not support a scenario with VAMPI programmed as next waypoint. No way. In my opinion, the turn from 25 to 40 is a clear indication that the aircraft was still following the original flight plan to BITOD. And if you track any other flight of MAS370 (now MAS318) on flightradar24, you can see that this is exactly what happens every day with that flight as soon as it reaches IGARI.
I have no clue what the aircraft did after it turned off the transponder and disappeared from radar. However, I think it is safe to say that it was still following its original standard flight plan WMKK-ZBAA until the last blip reported by the secondary radar.

b) ACARS off or gone, no more events logged and reported

c) pilot (or someone) programs or turns 40 degree course correction for reasons unknown, but could be to lessen suspicion of Vietnam ATC. No ACARS so no record of this
I don't get your point. What do you mean with "someone programs a turn to 40"? If you push HDG and select 40, then the FMC is overridden and the aircraft follows your inputs, no matter whether the next waypoint programmed on FMC is also on 40, or maybe 265, 190 or whatever. And which is the logic in pre-programming a waypoint clearly off-course (VAMPI) then? Sorry, I can't see the rationale.

d) as soon as 40 degree turn is achieved, then left 180 degrees to VAMPI, no ACARS now so no report of this...
"As soon as 40 degree turn is achieved" means that the aircraft was still following its original flight plan on FMC to BITOD. Very simple. I can't see any other explanation.
Obviously it may actually have turned 180 left after it disappeared from radar, however I see no evidence that a "left-turn had been pre-programmed on the FMC" as reported by Daily Mail and other junk media. The behavior of MAS370 on radar does not support this claim.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:30
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CNN were saying a few hours ago that they had reason to believe the final pings, one hour apart, were from approximately the same location - possibly the exact same location and that suggested the plane was on the ground at the final ping. They haven't "unsaid" that but they don't seem to be talking it up now.

Might explain the reluctance to provide info on earlier pings if true. At least until absolutely verified or otherwise.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 00:31
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Can a B777 land on unpaved surfaces?
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