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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:22
  #3961 (permalink)  
 
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Ben There,
it certainly is in the U.K.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:28
  #3962 (permalink)  
 
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“All right, roger that”

I never heard such a phrase. Where did he get "All right" from? Bizarre.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:29
  #3963 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AN2 Driver View Post
What this boils down to is that if the flight crew are involved in this, which I refuse to believe until I see unrefutable proof,
In the past 15 years, there have been 3 deadly crashes caused by flight crew suicide. This is about 30% of all deadly accidents happening during cruise flight (not counting 9/11).

Nothing has been done to prevent similar flight crew actions in the future; hardened cockpit doors made it even easier.

So without prejudice towards this specific flight crew, deliberate flight crew actions cannot be dismissed as a possible cause based on past experience.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:30
  #3964 (permalink)  
 
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777 avionics were reported by the US Govt Federal Register as accessable to a hacker. I'm not going to post the link or any details, because I don't want to help anybody looking for a way in. Supposedly the issue has been fixed, and seems beyond the capability of garden variety hijackers but its something to be wary of.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:33
  #3965 (permalink)  
 
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HeathrowAirport

Its obvious you have never operated into China... quite common to have an extra couple of hours fuel for the unexpected behavior of Chinese ATC
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:37
  #3966 (permalink)  
 
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("Roger that" seems to come from American TV, I'm continuously trying to stop trainees using it.)

Strange to get two pilots responding, both appearing to be non standard.
I would not judge by phraseo. It si more than normal that on home ATC frequency you are more than relaxed, and you will not repeat frequency you repeated probably hundred times before. You can check on liveATC.net how pilots on home country frequencies almost never do readback correctly, when handed over to new control. Even if this is was handover to Vietnam control, I would not see this strange or suspicious.

And I would say, that if you know how to disable ACARS, you would probably know these ~50 ICAO phrases well enough. As you can get them freely, unlike of T7 detailed system descriptions.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:48
  #3967 (permalink)  
 
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The FUB et el...

Many posts will be being deleted because they are plain stupid, or because the subject is security sensitive.

As someone who is well involved on this industry, I am already extremely nervous at the amount of detailed system/procedural information already discussed here. It just doesn't help future airline security...

I am just as keen as anyone else to see this queer mystery unravelled, but I am not about to share my professional knowledge. Others need to think before posting.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:51
  #3968 (permalink)  
 
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Frankly, todays press conference has shook me to the core of my own inner beliefs in whom to trust and whom not. I still am in denial that any crew could do something like that, so in a way I hope there will be ANY other explanation than that one. We can fix planes, we can increase security but to repair trust is something which is as unlikely as the whole mess we find ourselfs in right now.
And when was the last time an airline pilot hijacked their own aircraft?

Answer, about a month ago:

Co-pilot hijacks Ethiopian Airlines, flies to Geneva for asylum - CNN.com

Tankering fuel to China is not unusual at my outfit. I would imagine fuel is somewhat subsidized at KUL for local carriers.

If that plane indeed zigzagged NORDO eastward staying on the airways to avoid military scrutiny, as others have observed, it probably wasn't the work of an amateur.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:52
  #3969 (permalink)  
 
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As someone who is well involved on this industry, I am already extremely nervous at the amount of detailed system/procedural information already discussed here. It just doesn't help future airline security...
Excellent point Goeasy. The procedures we use have been developed over the years to ensure security and now I am watching them openly discussed and displayed for all the world to see. Not saying that it ever could be prevented, but if we are not security conscious 100% of the time then we are not doing our job properly.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 15:54
  #3970 (permalink)  
 
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Its obvious you have never operated into China... quite common to have an extra couple of hours fuel for the unexpected behavior of Chinese ATC


I agree
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:01
  #3971 (permalink)  
 
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Security through obscurity is never a good thing, it just gives a false, warm sense of security. If a bad guy is going to do something and he is an insider guess what, he or she would know what buttons to press. It might stop Mike the Plumber rushing the flight deck and using his bottle of vodka as a battering ram, but if Nigel the co pilot is going to do bad stuff, he is going to do it regardless.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:02
  #3972 (permalink)  
 
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hacking the 777

Indeed it is possible. I wrote a book about just such an event, back before the first a/c was delivered. The book was entitled The Last High Ground, and while the story bears absolutely no resemblance to what we're seeing now (uncommanded throttle-ups and t/r deployments were the plot point), the code inserted into the a/c systems was considered accurate and threatening enough by Boeing for them to ask the publisher to delete it. Which we did.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:04
  #3973 (permalink)  
 
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If something that pops up on PPRuNe is enough to give an 'amateur' troublemaker the means to take over a plane, then it seems to me it's a vulnerable area that should be identified and dealt with. Airing it is only responsible - especially if the issue has been ignored by those in authority.

Anyone taking a professional approach to the task of hijacking is likely to have access to other resources, such as data from actual pilots and ATC staff, wouldn't you think? I don't think they're going to be scouring PPRuNe for handy hints.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:05
  #3974 (permalink)  
 
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I can also remember some report of an Airline Captain on his last flight before retirement loosing the plot and barrel rolling an Airline full of PAX.

You cannot discount crew loosing the plot and committing suicide deciding to take the whole ship with them.
Respected Family Men have lost the plot and wiped out their whole family wife and kids.

If its one nutcase Pax then if the crew are lax on securing the Cockpit while using the WC etc then it is feasible that a Pax pushed in locked the door killed the crew and did his wicked deeds.

As stated I cannot see organised terrorism behind this because of a lack of claims for the Evil deed.
Organised terrorism need the publicity and coverage to promote their cause and to date there have been no serious claims to carrying out such an act.

I still bar the crew or errant Pax lean towards a massive decompression with emergency descent minus the A/P

Pace
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:07
  #3975 (permalink)  
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Grrr FWIW re last ping and shutoff of ACARS

The following is MY compilation of WSJ-FOX- and Malay Prime Minister of what ** seem* to be reasonably factual along with reading the last 20 pages of posts.

1) Flight path- zig zag along boundaries of radar coverage were deliberate and planned

2) Pings from ACARS ( hello ? hello ? ) were probably on a one hour basis after reaching ' cruise " Thus it would be possible to fly for about 1 hour AFTER the last ping- and dump it in the drink before the next scheduled ping.

3) It is also possible to get into lower bay ( required to shut down ACARS- ping ) and could be done with AX if nothing else ( special screwdriver may normally be required ?? )

4) passengers could have long since been out of picture via decompression at 20K plus for longer than passenger ox supply- while pilot(s) or baddie would still have sufficient Ox ( need to find out ETOPS requirements for Pilots OX )

5) IF ACARS shut down deliberately - then at least one hour radius from two positions on "ARC" would be a probable search area.

6) US navy/pentagon/ probably not sent to sea based on hunch - but more likely on data not yet released due to security issues.

7) Comparing cessna in red square is ridiculous - 777 is slightly larger and a bit more metal . .

8) By now, IF plane had landed - it would have been spotted

9) A feature or terrorism is FUD and zipping lips is very effective

10) still seems to be a mixup on time issues

11) 40K feet climb and stall seem to be not likely

12) IMO EVEN with various military assets, subs, sonar bouys, etc ELT pinger range in deep water may be limited for a variety of reasons best known by sonar operators. MAD devices may help . .
but at best about 3 weeks left to find ELT pinger..

12) IMO - other theories, area 51 style, gold bullion, refueling, hostages, arfe fodder for the coming 25 books on the subject via Tom clancy style- but should be relegated to the twilight zone or alternate universe types.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:10
  #3976 (permalink)  
 
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@Perth WA

Australia still waiting for a request to review radar?
Reported today (15th March):
No Cookies | Perth Now

AMSA says no reliable information about report MH370 tracked to ocean off Australia

THE Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said it had no reliable information to indicate Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 may have approached Australia.

AMSA was responding to a single report today that the last satellite transmission from the missing jet was traced to the Indian Ocean off Australia.
<snip>

“MH370 may have flown beyond its last known position, about 1000 miles west of Perth, and that location may not be an indication of where the plane ended up,” the report states.

A search in Australian waters would be in the jurisdiction of AMSA.

A spokesman said: “AMSA has not received reliable information indicating that Malaysian Airlines’ flight MH370 may have approached Australia or entered the Australian search and rescue region.

“Should verified information or request for assistance be passed to AMSA from authorities coordinating the search for flight MH370, it will be assessed on its merits.

“Australia is assisting the search efforts with two Royal Australian Air Force P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft deployed to the region.

“The Bloomberg report will be passed to coordinating authorities for their assessment in the context of all of the other information they have available to them.”
---------------------------

interesting quote:
“Should verified information or request for assistance be passed to AMSA from authorities coordinating the search for flight MH370, it will be assessed on its merits.

So... Australia hasn't reviewed its primary radar data etc yet for any sign of MH370... Considering the IMARSAT data now available re the possible location west of Perth, I think this should have already been checked.
I didn't read it that way at all.

I used to deal with LoRs (Letters of Request - officially issued documents from investigating authorities to foreign jurisdictions) and due to legalities, it's not possible to confirm a sensitive negative (or positive) without official hoops being jumped through.
I think AMSA are saying is that they need a specific, officially-issued LoR (or similar) in order for them to respond officially and to confirm the area that they know the plane didn't fly over. And that currently nothing's leaping out at them.

Regarding reviewing the data, that should all be gathered and in the process of being 'de-sensitised' by now.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:22
  #3977 (permalink)  
 
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INMARSAT Coverage

Some satellite visibility plots and satellite antenna pattern plots here:

BGAN Coverage Map & Details

Spot beam footprints:

http://www.groundcontrol.com/images/GC-Map33.jpg

More on INMARSAT 4:

ESA Telecommunications:BGAN Extension Phase 1

and another footprint map:

http://telecom.esa.int/telecom/media...-Obj4-hres.jpg

The spot beams might be dedicated to higher bandwidth communications, and might not be used for ACARS data. Without knowing more, it is risky to assume that a received "ping" could be located within a single spot beam. See comments by TelcoAUS #3862.

Snowfalcon2 #3849 and rh200 #3809 comment on poor accuracy of using signal strength for location. Agreed, and uncertainty in the aircraft's antenna gain degrades it even more.

Current satellite locations:

INMARSAT 4-F1
143.5 E
LIVE REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING AND PREDICTIONS: INMARSAT 4-F1

INMARSAT 3-F1
64.55 E
LIVE REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING AND PREDICTIONS: INMARSAT 3-F1

INMARSAT 5-F1
62.58 E
LIVE REAL TIME SATELLITE TRACKING AND PREDICTIONS: INMARSAT 5-F1
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:23
  #3978 (permalink)  
 
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As I told it from the begining it is SURE that the plane is hijacked. What pilot would fly for hours after a problem, seriously ?

Some pilots talk about security here, but hey, as I told it in another thread, nowadays it VERY EASY to go in a plane and learn.

Just have money and do some P2F program available for anybody on earth. Being in a cockpit of a big jet and learn it, you just need some money nowadays. Just be a client
No need of forums to learn about any safety issue.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:28
  #3979 (permalink)  
 
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Quote:

“All right, roger that”

I never heard such a phrase. Where did he get "All right" from? Bizarre.

Agreed, I have been unhappy with the phrases used since they were first reported. Are MAS procedures such that sloppy phraseology would be used? Certainly not with the Big Airline I flew for.
If not, was it the crew trying to indicate a HJ? Or HJacker using the R/T?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 16:33
  #3980 (permalink)  
 
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I recall that near the start of this thread that there was some suprise as to the tone of the words used by the Captain/FO/Someone before being told MH370 was being handed over to HCMC. The actual last words were “All right, good night.”

Things have changed dramatically since then as we now know that just a few minutes earlier, he or another had disabled the ACARS so the whole event had actually just started.

These words and his tone of voice must be hugely significant and pose many questions. Assuming these transmissions are recorded it would be easy to work out who was actually speaking, was there signs of anxiety in his voice, were these the words he had used on previous occasions, were there signs he was signalling he might have been under duress ?

All it would need is for a close friend or family member to listen to the recording and many of these questions could be answered.

I am in no way implying the Captain 'did it' but like others I find it astonishing that only now is his home being investigated. How many times have we heard heart rending appeals by parents of missing children on TV only to find later that they had in fact murdered their child. Thorough investigation means just that, and IMO his and the FO's house/apartment should have been searched very early on, as soon as no wreckage was found.

(Mods, I hope that the fact I have read every single post on this extraordinary thread gives me some right to comment)
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