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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:43
  #3861 (permalink)  
 
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the speculation is now back on a possible terrorist act, but making an aircraft disappear without spectacle doesn't seem to be the MO for radical terrorists.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:45
  #3862 (permalink)  
 
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Simple crewing question...that I think hasn't been discussed here yet.

Since when were both pilots rostered on MH370 flight? Was it long term planning random assignation, specific request of one or both pilot or was it a last minute crew assignation decided by Crew planning?
In case of foul play, which is highly suspected, we can guess that whatever happened to MH370, it has required serious planning and preparation.
This could at least give an indication if pilots could be involved or not.
Good question and one investigators should looking into.

From a purely legal angle, this incident is still in limbo as there is technically not yet an "accident" to investgate. ICAO gives primary responsibility for an accident investigation to the country in whose territory the aircraft came down in with "party to" rights guaranteed to the nations of registry and manufacture. If the incident occurred in international waters, primary investigatory responsibility is on the nation of aircraft registry with party to the investigation rights guaranteed to the nation of aircraft manufacture. From that perspective, the only two nations guaranteed to be part of the investigation are the US and Malaysia. Unfortunately, the latest satellite telemetry has caused even greater uncertainty over the issue of which nation will have primary responsibility for conducting the investigation. Moreover, it is not altogether clear that there has been an accident. KUL-ALA/UUAA (Almaty, Kazakhstan) was well within the range of the aircraft as fuelled. Until there is wreckage found, this matter will remain in limbo.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:45
  #3863 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ana1936 View Post
Only the Indian Ocean (64E) INMARSAT was involved in the last ping(s) and so they have ruled out areas (on the 40 degree circle) that overlap with coverage by POR in the Pacific and AOR-E over the Atlantic to the West.
Cheers that does explain it. Although on my original map, the gap is not symmetrical around the equator as I would have expected.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:46
  #3864 (permalink)  
 
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My guess is that there would be at least one passenger or crew with a mobile device not in flight mode. If this were the case, then could it's signal be tracked as the aircraft flew along and would the data be kept on file with telecommunication providers?
In theory, yes. The phone may try to perform a location update, especially if it senses a new network such as at a border crossing. But (and referring to e g China Mobile statements) if the location update request fails the home country network will probably not be notified. Most such requests probably fail due to weak radio connection.

In this case there may be a trace recorded in the visited network's database. But since such unsuccessful requests are from the visited network's viewpoint just nuisance data taking up storage space, it is doubtful if it's stored for any length of time. Network operators probably will not make public exactly how this works in each network, but it is conceivable that the accident investigators can be allowed to sift through this data if it exists.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:47
  #3865 (permalink)  
 
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ana1963

Ping return time to satellite is a known speed therefore distance can be calculated.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:48
  #3866 (permalink)  
 
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The two "corridors" are defined as follows.

Draw a circle on the earth with centre 64 degrees East on the equator and radius 4840 km as measured on the earth's surface.

(This is the 40 degree circle from satellite IOR).

Then erase those parts of the circle which are under the coverage of satellites POR (to the east) and AOR=E (to the West).

See coverage map here
http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/u...ember-2013.jpg

This will leave you with the two arcs marked red on the Malaysian map.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:49
  #3867 (permalink)  
 
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"If they can lose a 777, it doesn't bode well for them picking up a bomb laden hostile fighter."

And we all know who lost FOUR medium jets in their backyard at the start of this millennium, don't we???!!!!

The sheer and utter arrogance leaves me bemused if not slightly annoyed!!!

Last edited by BARKINGMAD; 15th Mar 2014 at 11:49. Reason: Lousy spelling
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:51
  #3868 (permalink)  
 
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Possible alternative

Not sure if this is possible (only fly domestically) if this was well planned, couldn't the pilot/hijacker have already entered a flight plan into the system earlier that day, then when at the cross over from one FIA to another, turn off the xpndr, change course and altitude, then fly along for a bit (with all other communication turned off) then at another FIA boundary call along the lines of "xxx centre, this is embraer 107 at FL290 for xxx, we are experiencing xpndr issues..." The controller looks up the flight plan and pilot flies along giving position reports etc under the previously entered flight plan call sign? Would the new controller check with the previous region? The best way to hide a tree is in a forest, they simply became another flight with a malfunctioning xpndr (unless they can mod the hex code or just run mode c) and proceed normally. What other flight plans or flights just happened to be going the same direction on the same day and time?
As good a theory as any or completely off the mark?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:52
  #3869 (permalink)  
 
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Going back to reports of mobile phones ringing - maybe that was when the aircraft was still airbourne, over land and after it was overdue at destination?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:52
  #3870 (permalink)  
 
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We may never know what happened on board this plane. If somebody can switch off the ACARS and Transponder then they may have the ability to switch off the CVR and FDR.
They can't (Easily) do that BUT the CVR only records 2 hours and the DFDR may simply tell us, roughly, what we already know.

So we may never get to the facts of what actually happened and why??
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:54
  #3871 (permalink)  
 
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Comms with Ground - Debunking and Spectulation

MikeBanahan

If there is a conspiracy involving collaborators on the ground, it has already been pointed out that satellite phone contact would probably work from inside the plane, especially near a window. A small hand-held VHF set would be problematic and give very restricted reliable range of miles or tens of miles unless you were lucky.
I respectfully disagree - I've operated scanners on commercial aircraft and received VHF/UHF simplex @5W from hundreds of KM away. I understand that the aircraft implies some challenging RF attenuation characteristics, but it would be entirely possible to establish simplex VHF using a small dipole attached to the window of the flight deck.

I cannot, however, disagree with the fact that it would be possible to establish communications using a satellite phone from the flight deck.

There are a few choices of satellite phone providers: in a theoretical scenario where the person or people operating the aircraft after its disappearance communicate with ground crew using satellite technology, only a few providers become applicable:

Iridium: Iridium operate a large constellation of satellites in low earth orbit - if the parties in question used Iridium to communicate, it is highly likely that the phone was in visibility of multiple satellites. The number of satellites in the Iridium constellation would make it an excellent choice for someone who NEEDED comms with ground crew.

Thuraya: Thuraya operate a number of satellites in geosynchronous orbit, meaning that establishing a link from the flight deck window would require the satellite to be positioned correctly, or for the aircraft to be maneuvered into a position where line of site is achievable.

GlobalStar: GlobalStar has been plagued by network problems and have operational issues. They would be a poor choice for ground communications and anyone who needed communications for successful completion would be unlikely to choose GlobalStar.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:56
  #3872 (permalink)  
 
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Next steps for tonight/today ...

Now we have the two red arcs.

There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:59
  #3873 (permalink)  
 
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Dexta

Highly unlikely.
The ATCO would have checked adjacent ATCCS to discover why the info had not been passed by them.
I cannot imagine that he would simply have accepted such a flight without investigation.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 11:59
  #3874 (permalink)  
 
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Next steps for tonight/today ...

Now we have the two red arcs.

There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
Assuming the plane has flown straight. If it has flown zig-zag or circles that would not help.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:00
  #3875 (permalink)  
 
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Emergency Locators

Previous post removed about ELT.

I will tone it down.

Complete lack of any ELT, emergency locators, would mean that the aircraft is at the bottom of the ocean or landed somewhere but the crew subdued and not able to activate any of the beacons.

These of course could be used in the air but no evidence of their use.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:07
  #3876 (permalink)  
 
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Tailgating scenario

Those without any experience in tailgating are allowed to post whilst those with actual experience and politely skeptical are modded out.

Military radars are extremely sensitive and a B777 is a huge target compared to a stealth fighter. Tailgating would depend on slant range and it's unlikely that you would get across India via an air route without being detected by one of many military radars. You might get by an ATC radar that depended solely on transponders.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:07
  #3877 (permalink)  
tuj
 
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Malaysia PM: Malaysia Airlines probe refocusing on passengers, crew - CNN.com
Air traffic controllers outside Kuala Lumpur said they lost contact with the plane on March 8 at 1:30 a.m. local time, about 45 minutes after takeoff. The Prime Minister said its last communication with a satellite was at 8:11 a.m. the same day, but its precise location at the time was unclear.
Investigators are using such signals to determine how long and far it flew after it went incommunicado.
Flew on for nearly 7 hours? Is this a red herring? The newest search box is HUGE...surely someone could narrow this down?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:08
  #3878 (permalink)  
 
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ANA1936

Of course, how stupid of me, just the IOR satelite!

So intersect that with a fuel/flt time arc from the last "known" point and, assuming the various pings suggest a constant track, it is indeed likely to be toward the western end of the northern arc.

But someone knows the arcs of each of those pings ... and the northern arc in my opinion would remain at roughly the same distance from the satelite whilst the southern could well vary in distance considerably.

Last edited by daikilo; 15th Mar 2014 at 12:14. Reason: more thought
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:09
  #3879 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rory166 View Post
May I invite anyone who wants to post anything other than hard information to our new and exciting chat about MH370 on the spectators balcony.
It can be found here -> http://www.pprune.org/spectators-bal...eculation.html
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 12:11
  #3880 (permalink)  
 
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@ana1936:
There are (at least) two further constraints on final location under reasonable assumptions.

For now I think that we can assume that the plane did not stop to refuel in the early hours of 8/3 (but we may reconsider this later).

One is the flying time of less than 6 hours from near Penang to the final resting place (but presumably not much less).

The other is the fuel which would give a similar upper bound.

Thus we just need to draw another circle on the map of radius about 5000km centred on the last radar blip (off Penang).

Then we intersect circles and arcs and should get just one or two possible approximate locations.
You ought to add one more constraint: erase any portion of the shaded circles and arcs which would require crossing a known radar range. While we can't be sure the radar operator was alert and inquisitive on the night in question, we can be sure that data will be reviewed and analyzed the same way the Malaysian radar data was shared with investigators.

I personally would put my next paycheck on that analysis already being done by now.
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