Lionair plane down in Bali.

[nippysweetie]

Reuters reporting that co-pilot lost sight of runway on finals, captain took controls then they hit 'wall of water' at between 400 and 200ft.

They opted to GA but aircraft 'started to sink uncontrollably'.

[Jet Jockey A4]

Exclusive: Lion Air crash pilot felt jet "dragged" from sky

Some comments before the article...

1 - So I thought all co-pilots were not to fly the aircraft below 5000 feet?!

2 - It seems the captain took over the controls too late and perhaps at a too low of an altitude to recover.

3 - And the routine part of a "Go Around" is far from the truth IMHO.
Our check pilots report that "Go Arounds" are where a lot of pilots fail to perform the routine properly because it is one that is the least practice in real world flying. I for one, can't remember the last time I had to "go Around" in real world line flying.

Article by Tim Hepher

PARIS (Reuters) - The pilot whose Indonesian jet slumped into the sea while trying to land in Bali has described how he felt it "dragged" down by wind while he struggled to regain control, a person familiar with the matter said.

All 108 passengers and crew miraculously survived when the Boeing 737 passenger jet, operated by Indonesian budget carrier Lion Air, undershot the tourist island's main airport runway and belly-flopped in water on Saturday.

Officials stress it is too early to say what caused the incident, which is being investigated by Indonesian authorities with the assistance of U.S. crash investigators and Boeing.

But initial debriefings, witness comments and weather reports have focused attention on the possibility of "wind shear" or a downdraft from storm clouds known as a "microburst".

Although rare, experts say such violent and unpredictable gusts can leave even the most modern jet helpless if they are stronger than the plane's ability to fly out of trouble - with the critical moments before landing among the most vulnerable.

"If you have a downdraft which exceeds the performance of the plane, then even if you put on full thrust you will go downhill and you can't climb out," said Hugh Dibley, a former British Airways captain and expert on loss-of-control events.

The cause of the crash has potential implications for the reputation of one of the world's fastest-growing airlines, which is fighting to be removed from a European Union safety black list even as it buys record volumes of Airbus and Boeing jets.

According to initial pilot debriefings, details of which have been described to Reuters, flight JT-904 was on an eastwards approach to Bali's Ngurah Rai Airport at mid-afternoon on Saturday following a normal flight from Bandung, West Java.

The co-pilot, an Indian national with 2,000 hours of relevant flying experience, was in charge for the domestic trip, which was scheduled to last one hour and 40 minutes.

HEAVY RAIN

As the Lion Air plane was coming in to land, with an aircraft of national carrier Garuda following behind and another about to take off on the runway just ahead, the co-pilot lost sight of the runway as heavy rain drove across the windshield.

The captain, an Indonesian citizen with about 15,000 hours experience and an instructor's license, took the controls.

Between 400 and 200 feet, pilots described flying through a wall of water, according to the source. Bursts of heavy rainfall and lost visibility are not uncommon in the tropics but the aircraft's low height meant the crew had little time to react.

With no sight of the runway lights or markings, the captain decided to abort the landing and perform a "go around", a routine maneuver for which all pilots are well trained.

But the captain told officials afterwards that instead of climbing, the brand-new 737 started to sink uncontrollably.

From 200 feet, well-practiced routines unraveled quickly.

"The captain says he intended to go around but that he felt the aircraft dragged down by the wind; that is why he hit the sea," said the source, who was briefed on the crew's testimony.

"There was rain coming east to west; very heavy," the source said, asking not to be named because no one is authorized to speak publicly about the investigation while it is under way.

A passenger on board the jet painted a similar picture of an aircraft getting into difficulty only at the last minute.

"There was no sign at all it would fall but then suddenly it dropped into the water," Tantri Widiastuti, 60, told Metro TV.

Lion Air declined to comment on the cause of the crash.

WRITE-OFF

According to the Flight Safety Foundation, bulletins for pilots at around that time indicated a few storm clouds at 1,700 feet. A moderate wind blew from the south-southeast but flicked in a wide arc from east-southeast all the way to the west.

The source said there was no immediately obvious evidence of pilot or technical error but investigators will pore over the speed and other settings, as well as interactions between the pilots, to establish whether the crash could have been avoided.

Both pilots were given urine tests by the Indonesian police and were cleared for drugs and alcohol, the source said.

Neither pilot has been named.

According to Indonesian media reports, five Lion Air pilots have been arrested for drugs in the past two years, raising questions over whether drug abuse or overwork are widespread.

The airline's co-founder has denied this and told Reuters last year he was working closely with authorities to ensure Indonesia's tough drugs laws are obeyed.

Delivered in February, the aircraft itself had only had one technical problem: a landing light that had to be replaced.

Now lying broken-backed beneath a 15-foot (4.6-meter) sea-wall yards (meters) short of its destination, the $89-million Boeing has been written off. It was on lease from Dublin-based firm Avolon.

Pictures of the stricken jet lying in water and the fact that all on board survived brought back images of the "Miracle on the Hudson," in which an Airbus A320 ditched safely in New York after dramatically losing power due to a bird strike.

But industry experts say the suspected involvement of wind shear draws far more chilling parallels with the crash of a Delta Air Lines Lockheed Tristar while on approach to Dallas airport in 1985 that killed 134 passengers and crew.

Delta Flight 191 led to the creation of new warning systems and better procedures for dealing with low-level wind shear, or sudden changes of wind direction or speed.

According to Boeing, the 737-800, its most popular current model, is equipped with a "Predictive Windshear System". On approach, an aural warning says, "Go around, windshear ahead".

Nowadays, pilots agree the best strategy for dealing with possible wind shear is to avoid it entirely, said Dibley, who is a senior official at the UK's Royal Aeronautical Society.

But if the "wind shear" warning blares out, the automatic response is to cancel the landing and go around again, he said.

DELICATE BALANCE

Pilots can sometimes prepare for risks, such as a possible loss of the right sort of wind on landing, by keeping a buffer of extra speed to help them get out of trouble, he said. It is a delicate balance as too much speed could make the jet overrun, which in the case of Bali means hitting a road or yet more sea.

"If your speed is too slow and you hit a downdraft you will just sink. So one question is how much extra air speed the aircraft was carrying," Dibley said.

There was no immediate information on what cockpit signals were available to the crew, how fast the Lion Air jet was flying or what sort of scheduling roster the crew had been flying.

Founded by two brothers and travel entrepreneurs, Lion Air has been growing at a record pace to keep up with one of the region's star economies. Last month, it signed a deal with Europe's Airbus for 234 passenger jets worth $24 billion. Two years ago, it signed a deal with Boeing for 230 planes.

At the same time, however, Indonesia has been struggling to improve its civil air safety after a string of deadly accidents.

In 2007, Lion Air was among a number of Indonesian airlines banned by the EU for lax safety standards.

The ban was progressively lifted, starting in 2009, but although it has had one fatal accident, Lion Air remains on the EU's banned list - a predicament it has dismissed as unfair.

(Additional reporting by Neil Chatterjee, Andjarsari Paramaditha and Chris Nusatya; Editing by Eric Walsh)

[truckflyer]

First Indian national with 2000 hours experience, maybe!

First hand experience, which I saw from a European TRTO, they had contracts / have contracts, where they train Indians who come trough an Indian agency. They pay approx. 50.000 Euro, this includes TR and placement with Lion Air, where they are paid, can't recall what they told me what they would be paid, but it was close to "peanuts"!

During my short time I observed around 40 Indian pilots doing this training, and I did overhear several conversations by the trainers, telling the students what to expect with regards to CRM!
CRM would be more or less non-existent, compared to what we would expect in Europe, and they would be a little more than a flap operator, however I did see the instructors was trying to give these young Indian pilots some positive advice to try to improve this mindset, that exists in these countries!

So back to the 2000 hour FO, how much does these 2000 hours really mean, if the FO has not been allowed to develop his own skills!
It would not surprise me if he was from this TRTO, as they was constantly getting fed pilots from India for Lion Air!

[hotnhigh]

Did they push toga or just followed the flight directors into the sea?

[nippysweetie]

One thing we can be sure of is that the aircraft did, indeed, sink. Twice.

[Clear_Prop]

Thanks for posting that, Jet Jockey.

That article almost had me convinced until I read "said the spokesman who had been briefed on the pilots' testimonies" - by the CEO and his damage limitation henchmen no doubt, who likely haven't even heard the pilots' testimonies!

[despegue]

Flaps at ditching look like 40 or 30. In a go-around flaps are set to 15 in normal circumstances, exept in windshear, where ne does not change configuration.
The aircraft was probably light due to the light load so performance should have been very good.

[NSEU]

The airline said it planned to suck the remaining fuel from the undamaged tanks in the plane's wings before towing it at high tide to avoid destroying the area's coral reefs.

....
2. there was still fuel left

There will always be a significant amount of fuel in the tanks which cannot be accessed by the pumps. For maintenance purposes, fuel tanks have to be completely drained using sump drains.

Auto Relight.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to Mr Boeings book "whenever the EECs detect a flame-out".......

At less than 500' on the approach it's a bit late for the AUTOMATICS to start attempting to relight don'tya think?

Depending on the engine type, Autorelight has the ability to relight an engine before you even realise you've had a flameout. The system looks at engine deceleration and is smart enough to know the difference between slamming the thrust levers to idle and flameout.

[bubbers44]

I wonder what the radar display showed on their approach. We have all done low altitude missed approaches at DH with no runway but radar usually lets you know if you should attempt the approach quite easily. The cell they encountered would have been quite visible on radar in my opinion.

[Lookleft]

What is beyond doubt is that the aircraft was in a low energy state when it hit the water. This is an extract from an incident report into a similar 737 incident in Australia

Had the aircraft encountered those conditions just before the go-around was initiated,the time taken for the crew to recognise and then react to the situation may have resulted in a more serious outcome. At that stage, the aircraft would have been at an altitude of about 200 feet, with the engines operating at a relatively low thrust setting,and with the landing gear and wing flaps in the landing configuration. Entry into a 3,300 ft/min downdraft at that point would have given the crew less than 5 seconds to execute the prescribed B737 windshear recovery manoeuvre to prevent collision with the ground.(ATSB 200100213)

Could be the Lion Air crew started their GA just a bit too late. The low energy state could have been the result of a high thrust setting reducing the sink rate to a survivable rate when it hit the water.

[bubbers44]

Count out 5 seconds. Maybe half a second to initiate the go around could be done by any competent pilot.

[sevenstrokeroll]

bubbers makes a good point about wx radar...and as we know, there is a bit of an art to tilt esp at low altitudes.

as to windshear recovery...we are almost always at a low energy state as we approach the runway. five seconds is a LONG TIME...throttles to firewall pitch to 15 and hang in there.

just a marginal wx operation? visual deception or mis cue, whichever you like to call it.

and the more gadgets, the more we will repeat accidents in the twilight zone of pilot judgement...

[sevenstrokeroll]

precip lost lift

one thing that has not been mentioned is pinpoint precip in such high volumes that lift is litteraly washed from the wings...studied by NASA for some time.

I'd also like to remind some of the DC9 crashin KCLT in the early 90's...right around the time of the OJ simpson stuff.

crew went around in heavy rain ( I was there, on the ground...worst stuff I've ever seen...sky was GREEN) did not go to firewall thrust or even full go around thrust...no warning of rain from ATC...seq report back then didn't even have rain on it.

part of the problem, besides the thrust issue, was loss of visual ref and miscues...plane crashed...some 30 dead.

we also learned that the windshear gadget on the 9 wouldn't work in a bank over 15 degrees...

we shall see...but if things are bad and you don't have one hand on the throttles ready to JAM EM FORWARD MANUALLY, you might have lots of explaining to do.


oh...and there was an early 737-300 series that lost both engines in heavy rain, TACA, they landed on a leveee....maybe loss of thrust due to heavy rain...we shall see.

[GBV]

Very similar to One-Two Go crash in Phuket. Probably pilots lost visual contact with runway didn't know what to do or how to conduct a proper go-around and just crashed into the sea.

[bubbers44]

Us old timers were spring loaded to go around if 200 ft found us still in the clouds. The go around was simple, max power with pitch to 15 degrees reduce flaps, positive rate gear up. The latest Air France 777 situation where they tried to go around around at 330 ft but descended to 87 ft before climbing was I think another example of automation dependency. They depend too much on the autopilot and button pushing to handle things. The annunciator went from cat III to cat II with an alert. I guess they didn't push the right button.

[Centaurus]

Assuming the pilot decided to go around from 200 ft. unless he immediately manually opens up to go-around thrust while simultaneously rotating the aircraft to up to 15 degrees body angle up, then chances are the aircraft will continue to descend during the attempted manoeuvre until the rate of descent is arrested by pointing up to go up.

Many very low altitude go-arounds we see during simulator training often catch the crew by surprise if they were not expecting it, with the result in the pilot pitching tentatively to only 10 degrees and that delays the climb out for a few seconds. Although selection of TOGA is mandatory in a go-around that low, if the AT is already switched off as it should be in the non-precision approach on manual flight (see Boeing FCTM) then the pilot must aggressively select the thrust levers to open. The FD will initially go to approximately 15 degrees with TOGA, but the main point is the pilot flying has to be "aggressive" in his power and pitch up.

Any hesitation in decision making at that very low altitude and any hesitation in actually carrying out the physical handling side of the manoeuvre (for whatever reason), will most likely result in a descent of 100-200 ft before finally getting away from the ground. At that altitude (200 ft) that the Lion Air 737 was at, and forward vis was drastically reduced due heavy rain on the windcreen, it means the pilot would have to be very good at basic manual instrument flying. And that now becomes another story...

[Lookleft]

one thing that has not been mentioned is pinpoint precip in such high volumes that lift is litteraly washed from the wings...studied by NASA for some time.

Have look at the report I quoted. Its mentioned in there. The crew may not have encountered a TS but the volume of water may have been enough to reduce the performance of the aircraft such that the GA commenced at a low level was not going to prevent the impact with the water.

[bubbers44]

Centaurus, nobody in my generation of pilots would descend more than 30 ft below 200 at missed approach because we didn't need an autopilot, we just hand flew most of our approaches. We would rather hand fly it than take our chances with the AP. None of us would have landed in the water using radar and hand flying skills. Radar will tell you where the cells are low level if you point it up over 5 degrees and flying skills means you don't have to look down to find a button to push. Automation is great but it makes a lot of pilots forget how to fly. Most of the time because of the airline SOPs not letting them because of their low time. I thought Air France was teaching manual flying skills again, guess not. Not in their budget?

[Hardbutt]

Bali Runway 09 VOR approach only. Minimums 470 feet.

[Hardbutt]

Another case of 'Automatiocitis' methinks.