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Lionair plane down in Bali.

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Lionair plane down in Bali.

Old 13th Apr 2013, 18:47
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Boeing should just permanently base an incident response team in Jakarta...would save them a fortune in airfare.

Whatever the cause may be LionAir and other select Indonesian carriers don't exactly have the best history with regards to operations, so I can certainly understand initial reactions. My first thought was...huh, big surprise, another unstabilized approach leading to a hull loss.

Time will tell if that's the case here or not.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 19:18
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From another forum (so second, third hand information):

"A friend I have working for Lionair just sent me this, from the indonesian media, words from a pilot at holding point RW09:

Were were taxing to depart, we´ve just seen the tail hit the water, within a minute we were surrounded by fire trucks. There was a big TS at the end of the runway. Wind shear for sure, we could see everybody going around...."
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 19:45
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Wind Shear

...is certainly not to be ruled out (yet), although the METAR posted earlier showed "NOSIG."

The event as reported so far (including rain columns visible in the background of the picture) is consistent with wind shear, but also consistent with other possibilities.

One way or the other, this one will likely be solved fairly rapidly, unless it turns out to be an obscure mechanical problem that takes digging.

Last edited by pattern_is_full; 13th Apr 2013 at 19:51.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 19:55
  #144 (permalink)  
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Is this the normal "parked" position of the windshield wipers on a B738?

Took a look at several photos of 737-800s.

The windshield wipers are not in the stowed position. So they were in operation during the approach and were in this position when electrical power was lost, likely at impact with the sea surface.

Because wipers are never operated on a dry windshield, (everyone who flies knows this) and because these guys fly in this environment all the time and likely use the wipers frequently for tropical showers etc., their use indicates that there was rain on final approach.

The recorders will tell us when they started and what comments were made. We could posit an entirely-routine approach to a familiar airport in rain showers which went wrong very quickly.



PJ2

Last edited by PJ2; 13th Apr 2013 at 22:30.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 19:57
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Sky News is still reporting that the aircraft touched down and then ran off the end of the runway. Try to keep up Sky!
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:00
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Don't know much about Bali, but as far as WX reports are concerned, they may not tell the whole picture. Try China, Philippines for METAR or ATIS, sometimes they don't even mention rain at the airfield, wet runway, etc... so a shower has passed, nobody on approach has been notified, and on short final or close to flare you realize the runway's wet... would have LOOOVED to know that beforehand.

@P40warhawk: 2000h SE useless? same as 200h cadet? I beg to differ. Getting the hang of aircraft handling, regardless of aircraft type, does not come with 200h, no matter how good you are. And if I ever had to hire a 200h pilot or a 2000h pilot, ESPECIALLY if the 2000h were performed single pilot on light aircraft, I would not hesitate one second.

@cessnapete: if the training brings safety and not the flying hours, like ou claim, then all cadets should be captains right away, right? Airlines would save a hole bunch of money and safety would be exactly the same. Good luck, the day it happens, I'll go by boat or train.

Flex

Last edited by FLEXPWR; 13th Apr 2013 at 20:02. Reason: typos
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:04
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Sky News is still reporting that the aircraft touched down and then ran off the end of the runway
Yes, Sky News on-line are still reporting this as a runway excursion but Sky News TV has been reporting since late afternoon that the aircraft came to grief 'whilst landing'.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:05
  #148 (permalink)  
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Re Sky News, that just illustrates that it is more important to be first than it is to be accurate. That applies everywhere - Sky News is not unusual - the U.S. is notorious for riding off in all directions before someone else does and Canada's three newspapers are not a lot better.

Actually, it's turning into a good thing because people wanting to know about events just do their own research by visiting numerous sites to make up their own minds, and ignore the standard wire-news sources because they know such sources no longer put a premium on good journalism.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:15
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how did I know the plane was a 737-800? The images from FOX tv this morning showed the side of the plane it Boeing 737-800 was painted on the side. Later, with better views, I agreed.

But i didn't see the position of the thrust reversers...anyone have a good picture ( my computer is very old and doesn't show them)? Were the reversers deployed?

AS to METARS and the like...wx can change rapidly and might not be included.

Windshear might lead a pilot to carry more speed and then over run the runway...does anyone have the total length of the runway in question?

While there is still reasonable question as to undershoot or overshoot...any markings of the plane touching down on the runway? did it land long?

airplanes of this type are built in three main pieces, the front where pilots are, the main, and the rear...so breaking in pieces is sort of normal...and yes, some people can get out the split.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:18
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PJ2, I am so glad to see you on board this discussion. With more information we may be able to understand what happened. Clearly Boeing is going to be eager to show there is no fault with their airplane that caused it to undershoot; bad enough that the dreamliner is still grounded with hot battery problems.

I am looking forward to the recovery of the recorders.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:27
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Flaps seem to be in the 30 or 40 position, not something I would expect for a glide-in approach.
Radar readings according to avherald have a constant v/s with a roughly constand groundspeed but 100 ' low on profile. Again not consistent with a dual failure on approach.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:29
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If radar data confirmed the aircraft was fairly consistently about 100 feet below a 3 degrees glide path then it sounds more like pilot error than a sudden wind shear event. Or in experience in dealing with recovery from such event.

Last edited by 1a sound asleep; 13th Apr 2013 at 20:33.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:30
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sevenstrokeroll

No, there are no markings on the runway because it didn't get anywhere near the runway. It crashed into the sea some way short of runway 09. There are several internet sites where you can watch the approach, but I won't post the links as this isn't the spotters forum.

Accident: Lionair B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, landed short of runway and came to stop in sea
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:34
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digusting F14

Thankfully nobody was killed (except hopefully P2F)
You are as distasteful as it gets.

Maybe you don't like this kind of operation, and I sure don't, but to wish death in an accident on a colleague who sees no other way to keep his liscence in a world of greed and profit margin uber alles is the lowest , most aweful talk I have heard in along time.
Be ashamed and get the f@ck out of here...

Sincereley,
Nic
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:36
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Indonesian authorities reported the aircraft just had 146 hours / 48 minutes of flying when it crashed. Is this a record?

On board 4 foreigners: 2 Singapore, 1 French, 1 Belgium

Pilot from Indonesia, co-pilot from India.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:40
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Admiral, I suspect he was referring to P2F as a concept rather than a particular person.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:45
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Where is the METAR? No one has published the METARs for the last 18 hrs preceding the accident
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 20:54
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As others have suggested it appears to have landed short of the runway.




Interesting to see the position of the aircraft in relation to the runway.
The captain is reported to have 10,000 hours plus so let's wait to find out what really went wrong.

Last edited by Ye Olde Pilot; 13th Apr 2013 at 20:58.
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 21:06
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What about the possibility of fuel contamination as well?
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Old 13th Apr 2013, 21:06
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I second that, YOP. Alot of speculation on here from armchair heroes. Something fishy is going on here, it seems to me exceedingly illogical that a brand new 737 with 150 hours on it plants itself in the ocean with the sole reason that they might have been using a P2F first officer or something similar.

It just does not make sense. Although it might have been a contributing factor, we have no idea about any mechanical or meteorological circumstances that might have contributed to this. As the crew reportedly had the capacity to make a mayday and a brace for impact call, something tells me that they were very aware of what was happening to them and where they were headed.

I am looking forward to some facts. Last but not least, the cabin crew seems to have done a good job evacuating everybody so at least a +1 for that.

faust

PS: I started out as a 148TT hero on a turboprop [Q400]. If you get trained well and fly with experienced skippers, that should not be a problem. Airlines with excellent safety records have been doing this for decades.
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