A Sukhoi superjet 100 is missing
The datas (FDR, CVR) will hopefully show in the future, what led to the disaster.
Lots of assumptions here. But given they apply, then staying in the orbit, or climbing in that orbit would have been an option. To continue with further descent when unaware of the terrain is suicide.
No good plan, you might hit something or run out of fuel.
If flying VFR, there is no sound reason to enter IMC with an air transport aircraft in mountaneous terrain. I would try both, stay out or get out of the mountains (climbing above MSA would be apropriate, would improve communication with ATC as well) and stay VFR by all means, and continue VFR on the planned routing. until communication with ATC is established.
There should be no need to pull up steep. When familiar with the performance of the aircraft planning ahead, staying clear of obstacles and maintaining VMC saves the day.
We should ask the question, what the task in the Bogor training area was. It´s kind of unusual to use a training area just to reverse course. That could have been done also under IFR in a level turn.
The descent in the wrong area finally brought them down to an altitude, where hitting ground was possible.
A_Van
Assume now that the ATC did not react to the crew at that point (e.g. was busy as it was a rush hour). What the crew had to do in this situation, i.e. a demo/experimental flight, Indonesian airspace with potential specifics vs Russia, Europe, US? Repeating the right-hand orbit once again waiting until the communication is re-established? Go on implementing the flight plan (U-turn and further descend)?
Assume now that the ATC did not react to the crew at that point (e.g. was busy as it was a rush hour). What the crew had to do in this situation, i.e. a demo/experimental flight, Indonesian airspace with potential specifics vs Russia, Europe, US? Repeating the right-hand orbit once again waiting until the communication is re-established? Go on implementing the flight plan (U-turn and further descend)?
Keep going with the same course and altitude? If the latter, the crew would be moving towards the mountains as it likely happned.
And if they were under VFR, this might not be a problem – e.g. they might be thinking «OK, let's wait for ATC and then make a turn after we pass the peak». But immideately after entering the mountains, they found themselves in a bad weather and the problems began.
Perhaps, they reported change to IFR, even tried to get up to the Grid MORA, but not pulling up steep enough.
We should ask the question, what the task in the Bogor training area was. It´s kind of unusual to use a training area just to reverse course. That could have been done also under IFR in a level turn.
The descent in the wrong area finally brought them down to an altitude, where hitting ground was possible.
Last edited by RetiredF4; 25th May 2012 at 23:43.
Psychophysiological entity
When being checked out on a new type, my LTC likened some of the traps one could fall into as a 'long dark corridor.'
I think this was almost a literal interpretation of the analogy. A nice easy VFR flight around the mountain and a turn one ridge too early - perhaps with that orographic sheet masking the left ridge.
With the speeds and times we've suggested there could well have been just a few seconds of utter disbelief as it became apparent there was no opening ahead. No real time to do anything in an aircraft that refuses to be pointed at the stars.
I think this was almost a literal interpretation of the analogy. A nice easy VFR flight around the mountain and a turn one ridge too early - perhaps with that orographic sheet masking the left ridge.
With the speeds and times we've suggested there could well have been just a few seconds of utter disbelief as it became apparent there was no opening ahead. No real time to do anything in an aircraft that refuses to be pointed at the stars.
Assume that the picture drawn by Gerry Soejetman is close to reality:
http://2.bp.********.com/-cg7Nm_jPuv...-R2.-RZjpg.jpg
http://2.bp.********.com/-cg7Nm_jPuv...-R2.-RZjpg.jpg
Welcome to PPRuNe. For some strange reason, the word "b l o g s p o t" is banned. Here is a TinyURL pointing to the picture you refer to:
http://tinyurl.com/6m5cteu
Originally Posted by Loose Rivets
A nice easy VFR flight around the mountain and a turn one ridge too early - perhaps with that orographic sheet masking the left ridge.
With the speeds and times we've suggested there could well have been just a few seconds of utter disbelief as it became apparent there was no opening ahead. No real time to do anything in an aircraft that refuses to be pointed at the stars.
With the speeds and times we've suggested there could well have been just a few seconds of utter disbelief as it became apparent there was no opening ahead. No real time to do anything in an aircraft that refuses to be pointed at the stars.
The Australian Army lost a Twin Otter in PNG a few years ago doing exactly that. Turned up the wrong valley on a training flight and couldn't outclimb the rising terrain. Accident Report
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97004 wasn't registered as civil aircraft, it's experemental.
MAK is not working on this case, stop mentioning it.
It's entirely in hands of Ministry of Industry and Trade (MINPROMTORG).
MINROMTORG doesn't have expertise for such cases, so you shoudn't expect anything from them. It'll fall entirely on Sukhoi and NTSC to investigate this case.
MAK is not working on this case, stop mentioning it.
It's entirely in hands of Ministry of Industry and Trade (MINPROMTORG).
MINROMTORG doesn't have expertise for such cases, so you shoudn't expect anything from them. It'll fall entirely on Sukhoi and NTSC to investigate this case.
Psychophysiological entity
Indeed, following my notion in 313 that both pilots might have been looking at a ridge on their side* - comfortable with the fact they were passing a solid mountain - dash8flyer presented in post 316, fine graphics of a scenario that I find the most plausible.
My recent post is really just an amplification of what I feel is still the most probable series of events, but with the image of that vertical sheet of cloud brought to the fore, allowing the logic that both pilots may have assumed the ridge on their right was the only one.
* Above, in terms of both pilots seeing a ridge on their side only, I had in mind them still having to look down slightly during the first part of the valley. Neither pilot would have been able to see the ridge on the opposite side until that terrible moment when ridge heights were visible from both sides.
Under the penalty of getting one of those Edit thingies, I must add that of course the above scenarios do imply a fairly serious limit to forward visibility.
.
My recent post is really just an amplification of what I feel is still the most probable series of events, but with the image of that vertical sheet of cloud brought to the fore, allowing the logic that both pilots may have assumed the ridge on their right was the only one.
* Above, in terms of both pilots seeing a ridge on their side only, I had in mind them still having to look down slightly during the first part of the valley. Neither pilot would have been able to see the ridge on the opposite side until that terrible moment when ridge heights were visible from both sides.
Under the penalty of getting one of those Edit thingies, I must add that of course the above scenarios do imply a fairly serious limit to forward visibility.
.
Last edited by Loose rivets; 26th May 2012 at 17:01.
Yeah, Rivets, you might have the most plausible scenario.
In a galaxy far away, we flew in similar terrain and had similar WX during half the year if we were west of the Annames Mountains. We had downward sloping terrain to the west, so flying north we were fairly sure that turning and climbing to the west would get us outta trouble. OTOH, we had terrain-following radar that looked out miles ahead. We could set a terrain clearance and get vertical guidance to use or not use. I don't foresee this in our commercial jets, and the terrain warning systems in use today don't seem to offer as much "protection/warning" until late in the game. out...
In a galaxy far away, we flew in similar terrain and had similar WX during half the year if we were west of the Annames Mountains. We had downward sloping terrain to the west, so flying north we were fairly sure that turning and climbing to the west would get us outta trouble. OTOH, we had terrain-following radar that looked out miles ahead. We could set a terrain clearance and get vertical guidance to use or not use. I don't foresee this in our commercial jets, and the terrain warning systems in use today don't seem to offer as much "protection/warning" until late in the game. out...
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a new angle?
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Problem report: 27 pages indicated but I cannot see beyond 25
My view of this thread has been stuck on page 25 for 30hrs or so.
The footer now indicates that this is page 25 of 27.
Any ideas? [And will I be able to see them if there are any?]
The footer now indicates that this is page 25 of 27.
Any ideas? [And will I be able to see them if there are any?]
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More precisely:
Posts erased, either by the mods or by their author, are kept into the database (and still available to mods & admins). They also are still accounted for by the board regarding pages count but each page displays the correct number (20) of visible posts. This causes a mismatch.
As a commun user, you're not able to see thoses erased posts, nor to go to the "apparently missing" pages.
Note we're on page 26, not 25.
Posts erased, either by the mods or by their author, are kept into the database (and still available to mods & admins). They also are still accounted for by the board regarding pages count but each page displays the correct number (20) of visible posts. This causes a mismatch.
As a commun user, you're not able to see thoses erased posts, nor to go to the "apparently missing" pages.
Note we're on page 26, not 25.
Last edited by AlphaZuluRomeo; 27th May 2012 at 08:35.
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Published today:
24 minutes of radio silence?
Originally Posted by Margareth S. Aritonang, The Jakarta Post, 05/28/2012
House to probe Sukhoi accident - The House of Representatives' Commission V overseeing transportation arranged on Monday a meeting concerning the Sukhoi Superjet 100 accident with transportation institutions.
Officials from the Transportation Ministry and the National Transportation Safety Committee (KNKT) were among the participants at the meeting.
"We will require an explanation from the Transportation Minister regarding the 2009 Law on Transportation because the accident at Mt Salak, Bogor likely happened because the law was violated," Commission V chief Yasti Soepredjo Mokoagow told reporters minutes before the meeting began.
She added that the House's transportation commission would also check updates of the investigation into the accident, which claimed the lives of all of the passengers and crew on board....
Officials from the Transportation Ministry and the National Transportation Safety Committee (KNKT) were among the participants at the meeting.
"We will require an explanation from the Transportation Minister regarding the 2009 Law on Transportation because the accident at Mt Salak, Bogor likely happened because the law was violated," Commission V chief Yasti Soepredjo Mokoagow told reporters minutes before the meeting began.
She added that the House's transportation commission would also check updates of the investigation into the accident, which claimed the lives of all of the passengers and crew on board....
Originally Posted by Margareth S. Aritonang and Sita W. Dewi, The Jakarta Post, 05/28/2012
Minister publishes Sukhoi accident chronology -Transportation Minister E.E. Mangindaan unveiled on Monday the chronology of the recent Sukhoi Superjet 100 accident, which killed 45 people, before the House of Representatives' Commission V overseeing transportation. The minister, along with officials from the Transportation Ministry and the National Transportation Safety Committee (KNKT), was among the participants at a commission meeting arranged to look into the accident.
The Russian-made, commercial airplane, which was on a promotional flight, slammed into Mt. Salak in Bogor, West Java on May 9, killing all people on board. The accident has sparked concerns about air transportation safety standards in the country.
The chronology of events was as follows:
2:21 p.m. The aircraft, which was on its second demonstration flight, flew to a height of 10,000 feet after taking off 30 minutes earlier.
2:24 p.m. The plane requested to descend to 6,000 feet.
2:28 p.m. The plane requested to turn 360 degrees above the Atang Sanjaya airbase.
2:52 p.m. Atang Sanjaya’s air traffic control (ATC) in Bogor, West Java called in the airplane, which had disappeared from the ATC’s radar.
2:55 p.m. Soekarno-Hatta airport’s ATC reported to the air traffic service coordinator that the airplane had gone missing.
3:35 p.m. The airplane’s situation was declared “uncertain”.
4:05 p.m. Soekarno-Hatta’s ATC contacted the National Search and Rescue Agency.
4:55 p.m. An alert phase for the airplane was declared.
6:22 p.m. A distress phase was declared as the airplane was thought to have run out fuel.....
The Russian-made, commercial airplane, which was on a promotional flight, slammed into Mt. Salak in Bogor, West Java on May 9, killing all people on board. The accident has sparked concerns about air transportation safety standards in the country.
The chronology of events was as follows:
2:21 p.m. The aircraft, which was on its second demonstration flight, flew to a height of 10,000 feet after taking off 30 minutes earlier.
2:24 p.m. The plane requested to descend to 6,000 feet.
2:28 p.m. The plane requested to turn 360 degrees above the Atang Sanjaya airbase.
2:52 p.m. Atang Sanjaya’s air traffic control (ATC) in Bogor, West Java called in the airplane, which had disappeared from the ATC’s radar.
2:55 p.m. Soekarno-Hatta airport’s ATC reported to the air traffic service coordinator that the airplane had gone missing.
3:35 p.m. The airplane’s situation was declared “uncertain”.
4:05 p.m. Soekarno-Hatta’s ATC contacted the National Search and Rescue Agency.
4:55 p.m. An alert phase for the airplane was declared.
6:22 p.m. A distress phase was declared as the airplane was thought to have run out fuel.....
Last edited by Antek22QR; 30th May 2012 at 08:57.
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BMKG: Weather Problem Did Not Disrupt Sukhoi’s Flight
Ezra Sihite | May 28, 2012
BMKG: Weather Problem Did Not Disrupt Sukhoi?s Flight | The Jakarta Globe
Ezra Sihite | May 28, 2012
BMKG: Weather Problem Did Not Disrupt Sukhoi?s Flight | The Jakarta Globe
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That weather man from BKMG is off the mark.
Salak and Pangarango have their own weather. It can be sunny and clear skies in Bogor where the weather station supposedly is and heavy cloud and rain in the hills.
Just walking on Salak one never takes it's weather for granted.
Salak and Pangarango have their own weather. It can be sunny and clear skies in Bogor where the weather station supposedly is and heavy cloud and rain in the hills.
Just walking on Salak one never takes it's weather for granted.
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Code:
24 minutes of radio silence?
Apparently the aircraft was cleared to a specific reserved area to make a demo flight that included some orbits (360s) .once the instructions to enter the area and to perfom the first orbit were issued , it is normal for ATC anf the crew not to call each other .the next calls will be when the aircraft crew request to leave the area to go back to land , or if another aircraft would enter the area . So 24 min without calling each other is normal under the circumstances . This is not a radio comm problem .
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In my experience, when an aircraft is cleared by an ATC for air-work in a designated location, it is usually also asked to "report on completion" of the air-work.
"If" this aircraft was cleared for only one orbit (as stated in the quoted recent press release and as reported previously) 24-minutes-long radio silence from both sides appears to me to be rather unusual....
"If" this aircraft was cleared for only one orbit (as stated in the quoted recent press release and as reported previously) 24-minutes-long radio silence from both sides appears to me to be rather unusual....
Last edited by Antek22QR; 30th May 2012 at 09:05.
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If this aircraft was cleared for only one orbit
The key to this is in the pre de briefing details. I have been involved in airshows organisations and the details of every and each flight presentation or demo flight is discussed and agreed upon in a large briefing between actual Pilots , Show organisers and ATC each day . How long this particular demo was planned for is therefore recorded somewhere.
Wait a bit more for the details.
Again , this "radio silence "as you call it , is not a cause of this accident