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New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

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New eruption starting in Iceland? (merged)

Old 22nd May 2011, 15:20
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Hmmmmm....Thursdays looks interesting for the UK/Europe

Metcheck.com - Atlantic Jet Stream Forecast - [Updated on 22 May 2011 at 16:00] - Weather Feeds - Live Data - Long Range Weather Forecasts
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Old 22nd May 2011, 15:26
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The London VAAC are at it again. Severe cavok in Reykjavik all day, northerly winds (Grimsvotn are 200 kms east) and yet they close.

Was nothing learned last year when they repeatedly closed in similar circumstances? And finally when something could be seen here (and felt in your face and mouth, everything was open.

Now they say this could reach UK and Danish Airspace on Tuesday.

Why is there a VAAC in London (where nothing has erupted in thousands of years) serving only the British Isles and Iceland, when Toulouse and Montreal could easily split this area between them?
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Old 22nd May 2011, 15:33
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Latest according to Sky News is that if the plume continues at its current intensity it'll reach northern Scotland by Tuesday, with the rest of the United Kingdom, France and possibly Spain by Thursday / Friday.

Let the fun begin...

In all seriousness though, these ash clouds can be pretty devestating for not only the passengers who are affected but also for the airlines, ground handlers and so on. Was there any appearance of insurance policies that covered ash clouds for these? Hopefully this won't become an annual event.
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Old 22nd May 2011, 15:54
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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1306068174.png
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Old 22nd May 2011, 15:58
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774
fvxx01 egrr 221101
va advisory
dtg: 20110522/1200z
vaac: London
volcano: Grimsvotn 1703-01
psn: N6425 w01720
area: Iceland
summit elev: 1725
advisory nr: 2011/005
info source: Icelantic met office
aviation colour code: Unknown
eruption details: Grimsvotn erupted around
20110521/1900z. At 22/0900z plume height estimated by
radar 15-17km.
Obs va dtg: 22/1200z
obs va cld: Sfc/fl200 n6628 w02308 - n6333 w02607 - n6129
w02319 - n6145 w01421 - n6456 w01014 - n6725 w00834 -
n6519 w01709 - n6628 w02308 fl200/fl350 n6211 w01720 -
n6441 w01026 - n6747 w00619 - n6820 w01048 - n6747 w01252
- n6812 w01850 - n6655 w02201 - n6456 w02522 - n6303
w02053 - n6211 w01720 fl350/fl550 n6420 w01719 - n6602
w01326 - n6814 w01411 - n6834 w01813 - n6824 w02131 -
n6747 w02327 - n6506 w02505 - n6435 w02019 - n6420 w01719
fcst va cld +6hr: 22/1800z sfc/fl200 n6051 w01218 - n6313
w01252 - n7011 w00150 - n6849 w01207 - n6619 w01732 -
n6743 w02246 - n6747 w02855 - n6451 w02641 - n6258 w02940
- n6107 w02714 - n6051 w01218 fl200/fl350 n6222 w01720 -
n7045 w00128 - n7004 w00856 - n6944 w01828 - n6853 w02341
- n6704 w02918 - n6206 w02042 - n6222 w01720 fl350/fl550
n6446 w01709 - n6857 w01325 - n7004 w01828 - n6841 w02607
- n6751 w02940 - n6441 w02138 - n6446 w01709
fcst va cld +12hr: 23/0000z sfc/fl200 n6056 w00856 -
n6610 w01122 - n7228 e01255 - n7107 w00641 - n6921 w01817
- n6905 w02308 - n6751 w03251 - n6343 w03047 - n6007
w02907 - n6023 w00823 - n6056 w00856 fl200/fl350 n6201
w01635 - n6747 w01111 - n7211 e00955 - n7330 e00910 -
n7244 w00704 - n7114 w02042 - n6913 w02641 - n6738 w03121
- n6140 w02201 - n6201 w01635 fl350/fl550 n6422 w01658 -
n6952 w01444 - n7135 w01455 - n7030 w02629 - n6812 w03358
- n6519 w02500 - n6422 w01658
fcst va cld +18hr: 23/0600z sfc/fl200 n5922 w02855 -
n6046 e00023 - n6403 w01337 - n6841 w01004 - n7157 e01114
- n7244 e02740 - n7404 e01458 - n7330 w01444 - n6913
w03302 - n6738 w03432 - n6007 w02952 - n5922 w02855
fl200/fl350 n6145 w01517 - n6713 w01635 - n7301 e00504 -
n7224 e03412 - n7410 e02418 - n7527 w00749 - n7104 w02844
- n6659 w03528 - n6056 w02449 - n6145 w01517 fl350/fl550
n6451 w01602 - n6937 w01658 - n7244 w01410 - n7244 w02545
- n6659 w03816 - n6524 w03358 - n6641 w02556 - n6417
w01839 - n6451 w01602
rmk: Plume clearly visible from imo office in reykjavik .
Plume visible on infrared and ash imagery. Heavy ashfall
reported in areas around the volcano. Ashfall visible on
various webcams in se-iceland. Extreme lightning activity
still detected
nxt advisory: 20110522/1800z=
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Old 22nd May 2011, 16:15
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Was nothing learned last year when they repeatedly closed in similar circumstances? And finally when something could be seen here (and felt in your face and mouth, everything was open.
As you can see by looking at the VAAC forecasts, ash at the surface doesn't mean there's ash at altitude. I'd imagine that ash has less of an effect if you're flying through ash for 2 minutes on the way up/down than if you're flying through the stuff for a prolonged time during cruise - although someone with more knowledge of ash effects upon jets can probably clarify that.

The eyeball is a rather poor sensor when it comes to particles too small to see

serving only the British Isles and Iceland, when Toulouse and Montreal could easily split this area between them?
Probably because the UK met office has better quality (and well validated) forecasts for that region of the world. Toulouse and Montreal don't - Iceland is likely to be outside the high accuracy area of their forecasting models.
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Old 22nd May 2011, 16:18
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Well maybe this photo shows better where it is headed.

The eyeball is a rather poor sensor when it comes to particles too small to see
If there is enough of these as in ash, they will be sensed by the eye as... mist or ash!

Last edited by oceancrosser; 22nd May 2011 at 16:21. Reason: Edited to show picture
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Old 22nd May 2011, 16:27
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Old 22nd May 2011, 16:33
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Has anyone got an idea on the density of the ash as most airlines have approvals to operate into areas of moderate concentration (not sure of the exact figures).

I remember our lot saying that had this been in place during the last eruption that we would have only been grounded on one day instead of 7.

There is a good chance that even if the ash makes it this far south it will be in sufficiently low concentrations that we will all keep flying.
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Old 22nd May 2011, 16:38
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I don┤t recall the figures, but when it comes close to the limit, the ash is well visible in reduced visibility.
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Old 22nd May 2011, 17:29
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From what i have been reading the ash is alot heavier and thicker than last time, so hopefully it wont travel as far.
i also read somewhere that eurocontrol did a simulation in april and they could operate 70 percent of flights if eyakacackerflower happened again.


i honestly believe the the media hyped it up out of all proportion last time.

this time they seem a little bit mor reserved. lets hope it stays the case


a very worried cargo agent..
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Old 22nd May 2011, 17:31
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Has Eric been on TV yet ?
No but the other one has Mr David. Learmount.

Time to check the insurance policies - I'm off to the ME on Thur
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Old 22nd May 2011, 18:12
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As well as pyroclastic material, (ash), there will be a considerable amount of gas up there too.
HF, SO2, CO2, H2S, and HCl are all common volcanic products. Not good if inhaled by flight-crew or pax. The folk who investigate volcanic clouds usually wear breathing apparatus.
Just a thought....
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Old 22nd May 2011, 19:09
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It will be interesting to see the airline pitch on it this time. The impression I get is that they will push for flights to go ahead, I would guess that pilots will be told to fly. Last time closing the airspace was the right thing to do. Let's hope , if this is required again, the authorities again stick to what is right and don't bow to the lobbying of the airlines.
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Old 22nd May 2011, 19:35
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The latest charts from London VAAC, with the general Volcanic Ash Advisory show clearly that all of European airspace will remain free from risk for another 24 hours, with the risk beginning to encroach on the very most northern part of Scandinavia later in the period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1306084960.png

The latest European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting charts also look extremely favourable for keeping any ash distribution well away from the majority of European airspace from Day 4 - Day 8, taking today as Day 1. The British Isles appear to be most at risk from transient incursions, although all indications continue to suggest that the Weather pattern will remain fundamentally different to that which evolved during the eruption in 2010.

Transatlantic Ops are likely to be disrupted though in terms of a more southerly routing imminently.
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Old 22nd May 2011, 20:51
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for the mo, the only disruption on the atlantic will be southerly tracks and longer flight times......better bring my cross word solver!
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Old 23rd May 2011, 08:53
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Somebody asked about concentration charts. Here they are:

Met Office: Air ash concentration charts North Atlantic area Public

There is very little "low" or "medium". It seems to be "high" or "nothing at all".
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Old 23rd May 2011, 09:39
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Looking at th charts everything from leads north wards will be closed by 0600 tomorrow. I best pack extra socks!
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Old 23rd May 2011, 10:15
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Looking at th charts everything from leads north wards will be closed by 0600 tomorrow. I best pack extra socks!
Where are you reading that from????

The London VAAC charts, updated at 0600 for 0000 on Tuesday indicate that whilst ash contaminated air will enroach upon the outer parts of Scotland and the Atlantic Seaboard of Ireland - these levels will be within the deemed ''acceptable'' limit - apart from potentially the airports of Barra and Benbecula by this time.

This corresponds with a brief surface flow out of the NW as today's depression tracks NE towards Scandinavia. Note that above FL200, the Southward displacement of ash is far less considerable. This surface flow, as well as at upper levels, should back westerly during Tuesday across the British Isles, as a ridge of High Pressure approaches from the south, preventing further Southward progression of Volcanic Ash.

Met Office: Air ash concentration charts North Atlantic area Public

That approaching ridge should also ensure that the majority of the European continent remains risk free, at least for the moment.
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Old 23rd May 2011, 10:19
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Looking at th charts everything from leads north wards will be closed by 0600 tomorrow. I best pack extra socks!
Really? What charts are you looking at to think that?
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