Ash clouds threaten air traffic
Air Traffic Live showing BHL43A approaching East Coast of Scotland as I type.
I thought airspace was closed !!
Ah, prolly Bristows coming in from the rigs to Aberdeen
I thought airspace was closed !!
Ah, prolly Bristows coming in from the rigs to Aberdeen
Last edited by El Grifo; 17th Apr 2010 at 13:01. Reason: penny dropping
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I think Peter we was correct that NATS is simply implementing a pre-determined course of action for such an event, but I doubt they imagined that the closure of controlleed airspace would continue this long or cause such an incredible cost and disruption to the struggling aviation industry. It is fairly obvious that this catastrophe simply cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely. Someone will have to take the bit and make a practical decision. A similar event occured in the nineties when the Vatnajokull volcano erupted in Iceland. Aircraft were simply rerouted around the area with no resulting incidents and this was some ten years after the Eric Moody episode! IMHO in the weeks and months ahead this whole episode will prove to be an understandable overeaction. Yes ash is damaging to A/C and engines but only in v high concentrations such as were experienced by BA009.
NATS have admitted they dont even know what the concentrations are and yet they have made this kneejerk reaction which I cant help feeling is down to an element of paranoia concerning aviation ever since 9/11.
In future I doubt if airspace will be closed in this fashion for similar events. MET will issue the warnings and it will be down to individual airlines to decide how to avoid the danger. After all it is their A/C that are on the line and no airline is going to deliberately risk passengers or A/C in a foolhardy flight which could ruin their reputation and be financially disastrous. But why should they suffer financial ruin through no fault of their own because of an overcautious bureaucratic ban?
NATS have admitted they dont even know what the concentrations are and yet they have made this kneejerk reaction which I cant help feeling is down to an element of paranoia concerning aviation ever since 9/11.
In future I doubt if airspace will be closed in this fashion for similar events. MET will issue the warnings and it will be down to individual airlines to decide how to avoid the danger. After all it is their A/C that are on the line and no airline is going to deliberately risk passengers or A/C in a foolhardy flight which could ruin their reputation and be financially disastrous. But why should they suffer financial ruin through no fault of their own because of an overcautious bureaucratic ban?
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@ Jez,
They (CAA) are deffo most happy about it, promise - heard from a few reliable sources - at least some flying is going on which is good news as any more loss of revenues will almost certainly result in more good guys losing jobs - not good for anyone
They (CAA) are deffo most happy about it, promise - heard from a few reliable sources - at least some flying is going on which is good news as any more loss of revenues will almost certainly result in more good guys losing jobs - not good for anyone
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quote AnthonyGA:
"...I don't know if the airlines or other losing parties here are willing to make this sacrifice, but it certainly would be useful if someone did, because this is a perfect opportunity to gather data on the effects of volcanic ash, which would make it far easier to determine what levels of ash (if any) are acceptable for aviation..."
Looks they are already at it - LH´s D-ABTE (b744) just arrived @ FRA after a low level hop from MUC
It might become a busy afternoon for the mx.
"...I don't know if the airlines or other losing parties here are willing to make this sacrifice, but it certainly would be useful if someone did, because this is a perfect opportunity to gather data on the effects of volcanic ash, which would make it far easier to determine what levels of ash (if any) are acceptable for aviation..."
Looks they are already at it - LH´s D-ABTE (b744) just arrived @ FRA after a low level hop from MUC
It might become a busy afternoon for the mx.
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I think that's bordering on insanity. How about if the engines powering the "test-bed" became clogged and it crashed? So you're willing to risk life and limb for this venture?
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jetsun - others seem to be managing to get out in the lower levels VFR and all with the blessing of the CAA so maybe possible for you ?? just seems odd that some can and some cannot IMHO - sooner revenue flights are up and running again the better.
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That Ural Airline A321, landed in Vienna, flight moskau-rimini was vfr fl95!!!!!!
VFR!
Well, no doubt it needed the fuel, but I really doubt the visual inspection afterwards is done accurate
VFR!
Well, no doubt it needed the fuel, but I really doubt the visual inspection afterwards is done accurate
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'kneejerk' raction
@coolguy
The so called 'knee jerk reaction' you allude to is the product of careful analysis of all available data. This is updated every 6 hours, but is being worked on round the clock.
The airlines are being kept in the loop every step of the way and are taking a very active part in the process.
This period of 'knee jerk reaction' has seen SAR helicopters getting airborne in Scotland, flying low level and coming back covered in ash. Do you think it is a reasonable risk for passenger jets to get airborne with that in mind?
I like to think I'm fairly intelligent and can take a balanced view on things - I'm also not averse to taking calculated risks if I know the full picture. However the decision to allow passenger jets to fly in potentially dangerous airspace is well above my pay grade and level of responsibility as it is above, I would suggest, the pay grade or level of responsibility of any of the posters on this thread...
It is right to ask questions and try to push the boundaries of what is or might be feasible, but don't you think it is rather significant that the airline operators are not jumping up and down complaining about the restrictions?
Go to the Met office site that is linked above (post 603) and compare the met graphics that have been released over the past 24 hours. You will see a significant change in the shape of the predicted (note the word) coverage for certain time spans i.e. over 4 graphics the same DTG is covered because of the 6 hourly updates.
Look particularly (in the case of the UK) at the corridor sneaking into the west cost of Scotland. Given the unpredictability of the shape of the coverage, I'd be rather reluctant to make a dash for the west coast of Scotland (in this instance) just because is shows a clear lane in one time period... this does not show what happens the 3 hours either side as the 'lane' opens and closes...
There probably is scope for flying within the forecast area if the particles are below a certain concentration - but until someone comes up with a figure that is deemed acceptable or 'safe' then prudence says stay on the ground.
We all know you can't mitigate against everything, flying always contains a certain amount of 'managed' risk, but at the moment it seems that not enough is known to make that call. As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, what this prolonged episode does possibly do, is provide data that can be used in the future to make similar events less restrictive or more manageable.
It is probably fair to say that this incident is occuring in an area where traffic density is much greater than in other previous incidents and thus the effect is much greater.
Unfortunately it seems that the level of data we currently have (collectively on a global scale) for passenger jet flights in areas of Volcanic Ash is sufficiently lacking, such that the internationally accepted advice is - do not fly in it at all.
The so called 'knee jerk reaction' you allude to is the product of careful analysis of all available data. This is updated every 6 hours, but is being worked on round the clock.
The airlines are being kept in the loop every step of the way and are taking a very active part in the process.
This period of 'knee jerk reaction' has seen SAR helicopters getting airborne in Scotland, flying low level and coming back covered in ash. Do you think it is a reasonable risk for passenger jets to get airborne with that in mind?
I like to think I'm fairly intelligent and can take a balanced view on things - I'm also not averse to taking calculated risks if I know the full picture. However the decision to allow passenger jets to fly in potentially dangerous airspace is well above my pay grade and level of responsibility as it is above, I would suggest, the pay grade or level of responsibility of any of the posters on this thread...
It is right to ask questions and try to push the boundaries of what is or might be feasible, but don't you think it is rather significant that the airline operators are not jumping up and down complaining about the restrictions?
Go to the Met office site that is linked above (post 603) and compare the met graphics that have been released over the past 24 hours. You will see a significant change in the shape of the predicted (note the word) coverage for certain time spans i.e. over 4 graphics the same DTG is covered because of the 6 hourly updates.
Look particularly (in the case of the UK) at the corridor sneaking into the west cost of Scotland. Given the unpredictability of the shape of the coverage, I'd be rather reluctant to make a dash for the west coast of Scotland (in this instance) just because is shows a clear lane in one time period... this does not show what happens the 3 hours either side as the 'lane' opens and closes...
There probably is scope for flying within the forecast area if the particles are below a certain concentration - but until someone comes up with a figure that is deemed acceptable or 'safe' then prudence says stay on the ground.
We all know you can't mitigate against everything, flying always contains a certain amount of 'managed' risk, but at the moment it seems that not enough is known to make that call. As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, what this prolonged episode does possibly do, is provide data that can be used in the future to make similar events less restrictive or more manageable.
It is probably fair to say that this incident is occuring in an area where traffic density is much greater than in other previous incidents and thus the effect is much greater.
Unfortunately it seems that the level of data we currently have (collectively on a global scale) for passenger jet flights in areas of Volcanic Ash is sufficiently lacking, such that the internationally accepted advice is - do not fly in it at all.
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just my little contribution, luckily just got in on thursday and not flying till tuesday at the earliest.
most of you are talking about nats, it's decisions and the traffick arriving into the uk. i know you live on an island and that makes for a certain outlook, i guess, but all of the other civil aviation authorities of northern europe have taken the same decision.
and an aircraft arriving from say spain would have to fly through (at least) france, where the airspace is closed, not only contolled airspace, ALL civilian airspace. so no vfr, ifr or other imagination.
let's just weather this out, try and understand thoses who are stuck somewhere.
out for the day now
most of you are talking about nats, it's decisions and the traffick arriving into the uk. i know you live on an island and that makes for a certain outlook, i guess, but all of the other civil aviation authorities of northern europe have taken the same decision.
and an aircraft arriving from say spain would have to fly through (at least) france, where the airspace is closed, not only contolled airspace, ALL civilian airspace. so no vfr, ifr or other imagination.
let's just weather this out, try and understand thoses who are stuck somewhere.
out for the day now
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"airliner through the ashes
News reporting that an Airbus 321 optd by Ural Airlines routed Moscow - Rome diverted into Vienna this morning. ( reasons are not quite clear I'd say, press say they "ran out of fuel"
)
Austrian mx is now giving said aircraft a throughout check."
What news agency released this info?
Are you referring to this flight of A320?
http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/9727/cap1f.jpg
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/3660/cap2n.jpg
This one was diverted over the Poland and returned back to Russia (I guess)...
Note the FL190.
News reporting that an Airbus 321 optd by Ural Airlines routed Moscow - Rome diverted into Vienna this morning. ( reasons are not quite clear I'd say, press say they "ran out of fuel"
)Austrian mx is now giving said aircraft a throughout check."
What news agency released this info?
Are you referring to this flight of A320?
http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/9727/cap1f.jpg
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/3660/cap2n.jpg
This one was diverted over the Poland and returned back to Russia (I guess)...
Note the FL190.
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"and an aircraft arriving from say spain would have to fly through (at least) france, where the airspace is closed, not only contolled airspace, ALL civilian airspace. so no vfr, ifr or other imagination."
This is changing quickly too,though, as Maastricht has opened up Benelux... So as long as you aren't landing in Belgium or the Netherlands, you can fly over it now....
This is changing quickly too,though, as Maastricht has opened up Benelux... So as long as you aren't landing in Belgium or the Netherlands, you can fly over it now....
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As anotherthing said,
I am one of the great masses whose arrangements for the next few days have been comprehensively
up.
But I give credit to the people who have had to make tough decisions - and if they erred on the side of caution good for them. As a long-term lurker (ok call it voyeur) on the forum I am more than occasionally worried by an attitude problem in some quarters of the industry ...
No doubt all pilots would claim to be infallible, but that doesn't mean all non-flying employees connected with the airline industry are complete morons, which seems to be the prevailing flight-deck view.
End of rant.
"The so called 'knee jerk reaction' you allude to is the product of careful analysis of all available data. This is updated every 6 hours, but is being worked on round the clock.
The airlines are being kept in the loop every step of the way and are taking a very active part in the process.
This period of 'knee jerk reaction' has seen SAR helicopters getting airborne in Scotland, flying low level and coming back covered in ash. Do you think it is a reasonable risk for passenger jets to get airborne with that in mind?
I like to think I'm fairly intelligent and can take a balanced view on things - I'm also not averse to taking calculated risks if I know the full picture. However the decision to allow passenger jets to fly in potentially dangerous airspace is well above my pay grade and level of responsibility as it is above, I would suggest, the pay grade or level of responsibility of any of the posters on this thread..."
Which seems a very sane comment to an outsider such as me. Some of the posts in this thread show a negativity - cynicism, suspicions of conspiracy theories, predisposition to distrust any official decisions - that seem downright irresponsible to me, and positively barking in some cases. The airlines are being kept in the loop every step of the way and are taking a very active part in the process.
This period of 'knee jerk reaction' has seen SAR helicopters getting airborne in Scotland, flying low level and coming back covered in ash. Do you think it is a reasonable risk for passenger jets to get airborne with that in mind?
I like to think I'm fairly intelligent and can take a balanced view on things - I'm also not averse to taking calculated risks if I know the full picture. However the decision to allow passenger jets to fly in potentially dangerous airspace is well above my pay grade and level of responsibility as it is above, I would suggest, the pay grade or level of responsibility of any of the posters on this thread..."
I am one of the great masses whose arrangements for the next few days have been comprehensively
up. But I give credit to the people who have had to make tough decisions - and if they erred on the side of caution good for them. As a long-term lurker (ok call it voyeur) on the forum I am more than occasionally worried by an attitude problem in some quarters of the industry ...
No doubt all pilots would claim to be infallible, but that doesn't mean all non-flying employees connected with the airline industry are complete morons, which seems to be the prevailing flight-deck view.
End of rant.
now 0700 tomorrow
Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Saturday April 17, 1445
The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland is moving around and changing shape. Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until at least 0700 (UK time) tomorrow, Sunday 18 April.
There may be some airspace available within Scotland, Northern Ireland and England north of Leeds up till 1900 (UK time), which may enable some domestic flights to operate under individual coordination with ATC. We will be coordinating this closely with airlines and airports. We would repeat, it is most unlikely that many flights will operate today and anyone hoping to travel should contact their airline before travelling to the airport. After 1900 (UK time), Met Office forecasts show the ash cloud progressively covering the whole of the UK.
We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 2100 (UK time), today.
Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Saturday April 17, 1445
The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland is moving around and changing shape. Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until at least 0700 (UK time) tomorrow, Sunday 18 April.
There may be some airspace available within Scotland, Northern Ireland and England north of Leeds up till 1900 (UK time), which may enable some domestic flights to operate under individual coordination with ATC. We will be coordinating this closely with airlines and airports. We would repeat, it is most unlikely that many flights will operate today and anyone hoping to travel should contact their airline before travelling to the airport. After 1900 (UK time), Met Office forecasts show the ash cloud progressively covering the whole of the UK.
We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 2100 (UK time), today.
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Ash maps
The next 24 hours are looking a bit grim with the corridor to Scotland closing and the ash travelling west towards Newfoundland. Could this close Canadian and USA airspace ??
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271508253.png
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271508253.png
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Every cloud has a silver lining!
Do there recents events mean European airlines have met their EU CO2 emission targets simply by parking up their planes for a few days now?
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And Germany takes the lead...
VALIDITY: 2010/04/17 1200 UNTIL 2010/04/19 1000 ESTIMATED
.
IN RESPECT TO THE CURRENT SIGMET FOR GERMAN AIRSPACE, DFS WILL
ISSUE IFR CLEARANCES FOR FLIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FL200.
PILOTS ARE REMINDED THAT IN ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT SIGMET THE
AIRSPACE BELOW FL200 IS CONSIDERED TO BE CONTAMINATED WITH
VOLCANICASH.
.
IFR FLIGHTS HAVE TO BE CONDUCTED ON PILOTS OWN RISK, SHOULD THE
NECESSITY OCCUR TO DESCEND BELOW FL200 DUE TO ACFT MALFUNCTIONS.
.
DFS GERMANY
VALIDITY: 2010/04/17 1200 UNTIL 2010/04/19 1000 ESTIMATED
.
IN RESPECT TO THE CURRENT SIGMET FOR GERMAN AIRSPACE, DFS WILL
ISSUE IFR CLEARANCES FOR FLIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FL200.
PILOTS ARE REMINDED THAT IN ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT SIGMET THE
AIRSPACE BELOW FL200 IS CONSIDERED TO BE CONTAMINATED WITH
VOLCANICASH.
.
IFR FLIGHTS HAVE TO BE CONDUCTED ON PILOTS OWN RISK, SHOULD THE
NECESSITY OCCUR TO DESCEND BELOW FL200 DUE TO ACFT MALFUNCTIONS.
.
DFS GERMANY
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Originally Posted by tcmel
And Germany takes the lead...