Ash clouds threaten air traffic
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Third planet from the sun
Posts: 383
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Have a look at this: ICAO EUR Doc 019: "Volcanic Ash Contingency Plan"
Nowhere in this document does it say that the entire region where ash clouds MIGHT occur should be closed to traffic.
Am I wrong in assuming that if you stay well clear of any noticeable ash fume or cloud by daylight VMC, you risk absolutely nothing?? I think not!
So why not at least send mil A/C up there by daytime VMC and let them look for the actual location of visible ash clouds and keep airliners away from those area's?
I can understand that night-time and/or IMC conditions are a different story, but what is happening now seems overkill.
Why don't we get some advice from Italian ATC and authorities? At least they have plenty of experience with ash-clouds from their volcanoes!
Hoping that some official dares to stand up to stop this nonsense.
Best regards,
Sabenaboy
Nowhere in this document does it say that the entire region where ash clouds MIGHT occur should be closed to traffic.
Am I wrong in assuming that if you stay well clear of any noticeable ash fume or cloud by daylight VMC, you risk absolutely nothing?? I think not!
So why not at least send mil A/C up there by daytime VMC and let them look for the actual location of visible ash clouds and keep airliners away from those area's?
I can understand that night-time and/or IMC conditions are a different story, but what is happening now seems overkill.
Why don't we get some advice from Italian ATC and authorities? At least they have plenty of experience with ash-clouds from their volcanoes!
Hoping that some official dares to stand up to stop this nonsense.
Best regards,
Sabenaboy
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Age: 37
Posts: 23
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Europe
Jet stream forecast gets worse early next week! That image linked is Tuesday evening...
Jet stream forecast gets worse early next week! That image linked is Tuesday evening...
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Between FL280 and FL410
Age: 56
Posts: 23
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You're pretty much correct Sabenaboy , however I did fly yesterday into AMS around 1730lt , visually from the south circumnavigating our way to the ILS , first time experience for me , but it was very hard to see , very sparse , very little colour difference , not really comfortable , I think a mistake is easily made ( the NASA DC8 )
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 543
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
***WARNING***
Would all the spotters and breathless enthusiasts please refrain from posting on this thread. There is a forum dedicated for all your wild speculation and 'eye rolling' and 'head shaking' questions called "Spotters Balcony".
If some of you continue to use this thread and the R & N forum to make posts that continue to make the professionals that are actually involved in all this cringe and shake their heads in despair at the amateurish level of intelligence as displayed, you will get yourselves banned.
Just a warning to some of the posters who have had their posts already deleted. Do not try and argue the point on this thread.
If some of you continue to use this thread and the R & N forum to make posts that continue to make the professionals that are actually involved in all this cringe and shake their heads in despair at the amateurish level of intelligence as displayed, you will get yourselves banned.
Just a warning to some of the posters who have had their posts already deleted. Do not try and argue the point on this thread.
Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult
Join Date: May 2007
Location: On the western edge of The Moor
Age: 67
Posts: 1,100
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Thinking aloud!
Different airframes have different engines, some having a choice of different types
Each individual engine type is type tested
I recall from books/documentaries that each individual volcano can produce differing ash compositions that possibly cannot be replicated.
So if airframe type A with engines type B were to fly through the ash cloud of volcano X, all that would prove is that combination would/would not work
So to prove it was safe every airframe type with every engine type would have to fly through the ash cloud to ensure flight safety
i.e. you would need to type test every engine type with every volcano!
Of course that means multiple flights and a proportional increase in the risk of an unnacceptable event.
So again would you as an individual or member of an organisation be willing to accept the responsibility if one of these test flights ended in tragedy. I don't mean litigation but the knowledge that you may have been resposible for loss of life?
Sorry but I thought the aviation industry had the highest safety standards!
EDIT Though I realise that some of the go fly in the ash school may not be directly involved in the industry
Different airframes have different engines, some having a choice of different types
Each individual engine type is type tested
I recall from books/documentaries that each individual volcano can produce differing ash compositions that possibly cannot be replicated.
So if airframe type A with engines type B were to fly through the ash cloud of volcano X, all that would prove is that combination would/would not work
So to prove it was safe every airframe type with every engine type would have to fly through the ash cloud to ensure flight safety
i.e. you would need to type test every engine type with every volcano!
Of course that means multiple flights and a proportional increase in the risk of an unnacceptable event.
So again would you as an individual or member of an organisation be willing to accept the responsibility if one of these test flights ended in tragedy. I don't mean litigation but the knowledge that you may have been resposible for loss of life?
Sorry but I thought the aviation industry had the highest safety standards!
EDIT Though I realise that some of the go fly in the ash school may not be directly involved in the industry
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Sandpit
Posts: 366
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Apologies Danny2 whilst I don't fly in the Arena of Western Europe I am not a spotter. I thought the light humour would be well received but apparently not.
My degree is in Geology, and I do fly, however like most of the speculations on this thread I am not qualified to make any judgement on the current situation and whether the closure of most of Northern Europe's airspace was the right call or not. I, like 90% of people here, do not have the necessary facts in front of me nor do I have more than a general understanding of the effects of volcanic ash on turbine engines to make a meaningful input.
I am assuming this may earn me a ban but if I were moderating I would be perhaps moderating out the opinion disguised as fact rather than a few flippant posts trying to raise a laugh out of all this.
My degree is in Geology, and I do fly, however like most of the speculations on this thread I am not qualified to make any judgement on the current situation and whether the closure of most of Northern Europe's airspace was the right call or not. I, like 90% of people here, do not have the necessary facts in front of me nor do I have more than a general understanding of the effects of volcanic ash on turbine engines to make a meaningful input.
I am assuming this may earn me a ban but if I were moderating I would be perhaps moderating out the opinion disguised as fact rather than a few flippant posts trying to raise a laugh out of all this.
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Europe
Age: 56
Posts: 169
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Sitting at the eastern end of the med trying to get to blighty to get Jr back to school. the local carrier has cancelled all flights to the UK for the foreseeable future. Its interesting seeing this from the perspective of SLF, even though i have to get back to being a real jet pilot next week. Being asked for my opinion about travel by other SLF but cant really give them a decent answer as even if London opens, it doesnt necessarily mean Germany, France, Holland etc will and im not sure what the local operator will do anyway, but thankfully have a direct line to ops. This article from the mail on line has a good pic that shows the extent of the area affected. The diagram is to the bottom of the article;
Volcanic ash cloud: 100,000 Britons stranded in Europe as air traffic chiefs extend lockdown to 7am | Mail Online
Enjoy the days off chaps. I feel there might be a few to come yet.
GW
Volcanic ash cloud: 100,000 Britons stranded in Europe as air traffic chiefs extend lockdown to 7am | Mail Online
Enjoy the days off chaps. I feel there might be a few to come yet.
GW
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Kent
Posts: 41
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
first.officer
this doesnt really answer your query however, jet aircraft departing south east airports such as biggin/southampton etc is causing confusion to the general public seeing/hearing them, been listening to a local radio station and quite a high number of people phoning in asking why there are jets flying low level. These aircraft are obviously departing VFR but the general public dont understand the concept of different flight regulations.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: .
Posts: 309
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Nowhere in this document does it say that the entire region where ash clouds MIGHT occur should be closed to traffic.
If the ash cloud is forecast to cover the entire region then they suggest that operators avoid the entire region. It's quite simple.
So why not at least send mil A/C up there by daytime VMC and let them look for the actual location of visible ash clouds and keep airliners away from those area's?
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Land of the Northern Lights
Posts: 22
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
the shetland coastguard carried out a mission this morning for those doubting the presence of ash here is a snippet from the bbc news report:
Whilst there a bit of the normal journo spin they flew low level VFR below 1000ft.
"The Shetland Coastguard helicopter crew decided to fly through not only ash, but low visibility caused by rain and mist on Friday morning.
The casualty was taken to Gilbert Bain Hospital in Lerwick.
Pilot John Grant told BBC Scotland there was evidence of ash deposits on the helicopter on their return. "
The casualty was taken to Gilbert Bain Hospital in Lerwick.
Pilot John Grant told BBC Scotland there was evidence of ash deposits on the helicopter on their return. "
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 1,608
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
sabenaboy
Not the case - the particulate matter is diffuse and not concentrated in clouds. Italians deal with frequent-erupting lava-emitting volcanoes. This one is rare-erupting and explosive. GCSE geography...
With concentrations above the NASA DC8 incident, why would you risk flight safety by pressing on?
Enjoy the good weather while it lasts!
Am I wrong in assuming that if you stay well clear of any noticeable ash fume or cloud by daylight VMC, you risk absolutely nothing??
With concentrations above the NASA DC8 incident, why would you risk flight safety by pressing on?
Enjoy the good weather while it lasts!
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Denmark
Age: 79
Posts: 158
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Latest info from an Icelandic expert.........
Published in Iceland Review Online lately......
16/04/2010 | 17:00
Geophysicist: Hard to Predict How Eruption Will Develop
Professor in Geophysics Páll Einarsson said it is hard to predict how the volcanic eruption in Eyjafjallajökull will develop. Geophysicists usually base their predictions on experience and little in known about previous eruptions in Eyjafjallajökull.
The only eruption on which they have some information occurred in 1821. “And it is limited what we can learn from one eruption. […] Volcanoes change during eruptions so the next eruption will occur in a changed volcano,” Einarsson told visir.is.
The 1821 eruption lasted for more than one year and resulted in significant ash fall. It stopped once in a while but then resumed. Einarsson said it is likely that the current eruption will carry on for some time—yesterday morning it grew in strength.
However, it has also happened that eruptions come to a sudden end. “But this is part of a longer course of events which began last summer. If the eruption stops suddenly in this location it is likely that it will resume in another location.”
Einarsson said the eruption in the Eyjafjallajökull volcano moved from the best possible location on the Fimmvörduháls mountain pass, the only place in the area that is ice free, to the worse possible place, where the icecap is thickest and where there is most risk for glacier bursts and ash fall.
I suppose that this (local) expert assessment is realistic - unfortunately!
So it appears that some unorthodox solutions have to be introduced in order to be able to fly in spite of the high altitude ash clouds. First Officer's suggestions in his post#471 could be a realistic possibility.
16/04/2010 | 17:00
Geophysicist: Hard to Predict How Eruption Will Develop
Professor in Geophysics Páll Einarsson said it is hard to predict how the volcanic eruption in Eyjafjallajökull will develop. Geophysicists usually base their predictions on experience and little in known about previous eruptions in Eyjafjallajökull.
The only eruption on which they have some information occurred in 1821. “And it is limited what we can learn from one eruption. […] Volcanoes change during eruptions so the next eruption will occur in a changed volcano,” Einarsson told visir.is.
The 1821 eruption lasted for more than one year and resulted in significant ash fall. It stopped once in a while but then resumed. Einarsson said it is likely that the current eruption will carry on for some time—yesterday morning it grew in strength.
However, it has also happened that eruptions come to a sudden end. “But this is part of a longer course of events which began last summer. If the eruption stops suddenly in this location it is likely that it will resume in another location.”
Einarsson said the eruption in the Eyjafjallajökull volcano moved from the best possible location on the Fimmvörduháls mountain pass, the only place in the area that is ice free, to the worse possible place, where the icecap is thickest and where there is most risk for glacier bursts and ash fall.
I suppose that this (local) expert assessment is realistic - unfortunately!
So it appears that some unorthodox solutions have to be introduced in order to be able to fly in spite of the high altitude ash clouds. First Officer's suggestions in his post#471 could be a realistic possibility.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Paris
Posts: 11
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Sorry, I have tried to go through this thread looking for the info, with no luck.
But has anyone sent up a research aircraft, with suitable probes, to see how much ash there really is in the various layers and locations?? The 747 (BA 009) that had ash problems was in thick ash, not the wisps we have had today. I've not seen a glimmer of ash on any cars, and yet all the airports closed.
But has anyone sent up a research aircraft, with suitable probes, to see how much ash there really is in the various layers and locations?? The 747 (BA 009) that had ash problems was in thick ash, not the wisps we have had today. I've not seen a glimmer of ash on any cars, and yet all the airports closed.
Join Date: May 2004
Location: airports
Posts: 137
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271440382.png
1200Z tomorrow still looking bad for England Wales.
1200Z tomorrow still looking bad for England Wales.
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Europe
Posts: 716
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I see some ask whether or not overflight of the area can be carried out above FL350. However, ask yourselves, especially for twin engined aeroplanes, what would happen when you have an engine failure right over the ash area?
I see some ask whether or not overflight of the area can be carried out above FL350. However, ask yourselves, especially for twin engined aeroplanes, what would happen when you have an engine failure right over the ash area?
Cool Mod
Join Date: Apr 1998
Location: 18nm N of LGW
Posts: 6,185
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Note:
While some of you fail to heed our warnings about posting rubbish and peurile nonsense - we mods WILL delete them in a trice. We have better things to do than constantly following every post to see if it has any commonsense in it. So once again take heed. WE decide what makes a contribution to a debate and right now there are precious few posts that do.
All that can be said by the authorities has been said and that's it!
While some of you fail to heed our warnings about posting rubbish and peurile nonsense - we mods WILL delete them in a trice. We have better things to do than constantly following every post to see if it has any commonsense in it. So once again take heed. WE decide what makes a contribution to a debate and right now there are precious few posts that do.
All that can be said by the authorities has been said and that's it!