Aeroflot B737 Down near Perm
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Video of this plane landing taken three months before...
Boeing 737-500 VP-BKO, ïîñàäêà â Ïåðìè - Âèäåî / Ëþáèòåëüñêîå âèäåî / Ñ çåìëè - Avsim.su - Microsoft Flight Simulator, X-Plane, àâèà, ñàìîëåòû, àýðîïîðòû, âèðòóàëüíûå àâèàêîìïàíèè, àâèàðåéñû, ÷àðòåðíûå ðåéñû
Boeing 737-500 VP-BKO, ïîñàäêà â Ïåðìè - Âèäåî / Ëþáèòåëüñêîå âèäåî / Ñ çåìëè - Avsim.su - Microsoft Flight Simulator, X-Plane, àâèà, ñàìîëåòû, àýðîïîðòû, âèðòóàëüíûå àâèàêîìïàíèè, àâèàðåéñû, ÷àðòåðíûå ðåéñû
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Given this image,
I'd say he came in from "far" side of the image (upper right) towards the camera (camera is bottom left), cutting trees. But the rail line goes in a trench here (significantly lower than surrounding terrain), so he skipped first (upper in the image) line of rail, hit the second (lower in the image) line, and impacted the upslope (the side of trench on which the camera is). He was at angle to the track (I'd say close to 45 degrees) and the track is somewhat protected by the edges of the "trench". Hence the limited damage to the rail itself.
I'd say he came in from "far" side of the image (upper right) towards the camera (camera is bottom left), cutting trees. But the rail line goes in a trench here (significantly lower than surrounding terrain), so he skipped first (upper in the image) line of rail, hit the second (lower in the image) line, and impacted the upslope (the side of trench on which the camera is). He was at angle to the track (I'd say close to 45 degrees) and the track is somewhat protected by the edges of the "trench". Hence the limited damage to the rail itself.
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Translation of bits of posts from the accident thread on a Russian pilots’ forum that seem to make sense:
Regarding GA:
FMS on a 735 is designed to hook on to VOR/DME beacons, which are very few in Russia. In Perm, there is actually none. As a result, by the time they approached Perm from Moscow, significant error in location identification has built up. Even if there was GPS onboard, it is known for grossly erroneous readings over Russian territory. GLONASS, Russian analogue of GPS, has not yet been deployed.
There is no ILS with heading 32 in Perm, only ILS 212.
So, of all the miracles of navigation, only ADF, a technology from the 1930’s, might have remained of use onboard that plane. In a 2-man crew, without the navigator, it might be a hell of a job to do an IMC approach at night using only one set of ADF.
Captain’s request for the 212 approach heading is an indication of attempted ILS landing.
Regarding sudden climbing turn to the left:
There are hills to the east of Perm. When shooting a 32 ILS, they are seen forward right. So if GPS was mispositioned it could send a warning of close terrain and prompt the captain to turn left.
Regarding captain’s behaviour:
1)He requested heading 212 because this was the easiest mode of approach for him and he felt unconfident about other headings.
2)He botched up reporting his position to the ATC controller at some point during the approach and did not want to admit to the controller that he lost his orientation.
3)Because of loss of situational awareness he misinterpreted instructions of the controller as he could no longer figure out where was right and left.
4)His control inputs (nose up instead of nose down) is indication of his struggle with the loss of speed and look more like hectic actions then indented maneuver.
5)Captain’s actions are indicative of his desire to conceal the mistakes characteristic for a trainee.
6) Captain was in the home-itus state, which urged him to get on the ground as soon as possible instead of making a standard GA, which he was afraid of doing (because of night, rain, dark, no lights on the ground, loss of SA)
Regarding GA:
FMS on a 735 is designed to hook on to VOR/DME beacons, which are very few in Russia. In Perm, there is actually none. As a result, by the time they approached Perm from Moscow, significant error in location identification has built up. Even if there was GPS onboard, it is known for grossly erroneous readings over Russian territory. GLONASS, Russian analogue of GPS, has not yet been deployed.
There is no ILS with heading 32 in Perm, only ILS 212.
So, of all the miracles of navigation, only ADF, a technology from the 1930’s, might have remained of use onboard that plane. In a 2-man crew, without the navigator, it might be a hell of a job to do an IMC approach at night using only one set of ADF.
Captain’s request for the 212 approach heading is an indication of attempted ILS landing.
Regarding sudden climbing turn to the left:
There are hills to the east of Perm. When shooting a 32 ILS, they are seen forward right. So if GPS was mispositioned it could send a warning of close terrain and prompt the captain to turn left.
Regarding captain’s behaviour:
1)He requested heading 212 because this was the easiest mode of approach for him and he felt unconfident about other headings.
2)He botched up reporting his position to the ATC controller at some point during the approach and did not want to admit to the controller that he lost his orientation.
3)Because of loss of situational awareness he misinterpreted instructions of the controller as he could no longer figure out where was right and left.
4)His control inputs (nose up instead of nose down) is indication of his struggle with the loss of speed and look more like hectic actions then indented maneuver.
5)Captain’s actions are indicative of his desire to conceal the mistakes characteristic for a trainee.
6) Captain was in the home-itus state, which urged him to get on the ground as soon as possible instead of making a standard GA, which he was afraid of doing (because of night, rain, dark, no lights on the ground, loss of SA)
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Regarding captain’s behaviour:
1)He requested heading 212 because this was the easiest mode of approach for him and he felt unconfident about other headings.
2)He botched up reporting his position to the ATC controller at some point during the approach and did not want to admit to the controller that he lost his orientation.
3)Because of loss of situational awareness he misinterpreted instructions of the controller as he could no longer figure out where was right and left.
4)His control inputs (nose up instead of nose down) is indication of his struggle with the loss of speed and look more like hectic actions then indented maneuver.
5)Captain’s actions are indicative of his desire to conceal the mistakes characteristic for a trainee.
6) Captain was in the home-itus state, which urged him to get on the ground as soon as possible instead of making a standard GA, which he was afraid of doing (because of night, rain, dark, no lights on the ground, loss of SA)
1)He requested heading 212 because this was the easiest mode of approach for him and he felt unconfident about other headings.
2)He botched up reporting his position to the ATC controller at some point during the approach and did not want to admit to the controller that he lost his orientation.
3)Because of loss of situational awareness he misinterpreted instructions of the controller as he could no longer figure out where was right and left.
4)His control inputs (nose up instead of nose down) is indication of his struggle with the loss of speed and look more like hectic actions then indented maneuver.
5)Captain’s actions are indicative of his desire to conceal the mistakes characteristic for a trainee.
6) Captain was in the home-itus state, which urged him to get on the ground as soon as possible instead of making a standard GA, which he was afraid of doing (because of night, rain, dark, no lights on the ground, loss of SA)
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I stand corrected - I had not seen those track shots before.
Do I have the rest of the picture right?
Attempting ILS for RWY 21
wind 060 at about 10 mph (5mps) - favors NDB RWY 3 approach but negligible for 737 so the ILS is preferred.
Controller says he was too high and climbing, then a left turn off the localizer/centerline heading of 212 degrees, rapid descent and crash?
Crashed short of the airport while still inbound - no go-around at the marker or airport?
Do I have the rest of the picture right?
Attempting ILS for RWY 21
wind 060 at about 10 mph (5mps) - favors NDB RWY 3 approach but negligible for 737 so the ILS is preferred.
Controller says he was too high and climbing, then a left turn off the localizer/centerline heading of 212 degrees, rapid descent and crash?
Crashed short of the airport while still inbound - no go-around at the marker or airport?
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Translation of bits of posts from the accident thread on a Russian pilots’ forum that seem to make sense:
Regarding GA:
...Even if there was GPS onboard, it is known for grossly erroneous readings over Russian territory. GLONASS, Russian analogue of GPS, has not yet been deployed.
Regarding GA:
...Even if there was GPS onboard, it is known for grossly erroneous readings over Russian territory. GLONASS, Russian analogue of GPS, has not yet been deployed.
There are currently 31 active GPS satellites, enough to ensure constant coverage everywhere. In fact, the chief of the Russian Space Agency (Roscosmos), Anatoly Perminov, was recently quoted as saying that in 2010, "...the GLONASS accuracy parameters will approach the accuracy of the GPS system." Apparently, achieving current GPS accuracy (over Russia, I assume) is a future goal of the GLONASS project.
Think about it. GPS was originally developed and deployed by the U.S. military. Does anyone really think there would be problems with accuracy over Russia, of all places?
Last edited by Mark in CA; 16th Sep 2008 at 22:31.
Boeing Blew Out as Balloon - Kommersant Moscow
The doubts about the beginning of fire root in the evidences of witnesses insisting that the jet inflamed in the air and looked like a comet. Besides, unlike the left engine, the right one, No. 856332, that was made August 9, 1992 and operated for 41,965 hours (the jet was registered in the Bermuda Islands and operated 44,521 hours) is very much deformed and completely burned. The trend is that some 90 percent of the people that saw an air crash speak about the fire and air explosion, and this information is usually wrong.
The fire in the engine didn’t cause the crash, one of the investigators said on condition of anonymity. Boeing 737 was solid till it hit the ground at a 30-degree angle. The plane broke to small pieces after the collision and the immediate fire of fuel that splashed out the fuel tanks (over 5 tons of aviation kerosene). If the jet had broken in the air, it would have broken into big fragments, the investigator explained.
The fire in the engine didn’t cause the crash, one of the investigators said on condition of anonymity. Boeing 737 was solid till it hit the ground at a 30-degree angle. The plane broke to small pieces after the collision and the immediate fire of fuel that splashed out the fuel tanks (over 5 tons of aviation kerosene). If the jet had broken in the air, it would have broken into big fragments, the investigator explained.
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So, it seems that the engine exploded ,the pressurisation failed ,the crew were situationally unaware ,there was a train in the way as they landed , the aircraft was registered in Bermuda, there were some dodgy guys aboard that other dodgy guys might have wanted dead. . . . . no wonder it crashed then. Might as well cancel the investigation and save the money to buy another football player.
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Intergovermental aviation committee informs about the fact that the technical commission POPPY on the investigation of the crash of aircraft the Boeing-500 of airline “Aeroflot- north” is formed in complete agreement with the rules of the investigation of aviation incidents and incidents in the Russian Federation.
In the composition of commission participate the representatives Of [rosaviatsii], [Rosaeronavigatsii] and other specialists of civil aviation. In accordance with the Convention on International Civil Aviation (appendix 13 “the investigation of aviation incidents and incidents”), will take part the representatives of the USA as developer and producer of aircraft, France as the developer of engine, and also Great Britain as the representative of [lizingodatelya] and state of registration.
Official information about the work of technical commission and corresponding results will be placed on the site of intergovermental aviation committee.
Technical commission POPPY continues the necessary volume of the works of the stage of the field investigation on the spot of incident. Entire flying and technical documentation of aircraft is studied by commission, is analyzed the information of the means of the ground-based of the inspection, including of radar piloting of air vessel.
With inspection and opening of onboard registrars in the technical center POPPY was discovered serious damage of both the tape-drive mechanisms of both the vocal and the parametric of chart recorders. For the interpretation of records taking into account their poor state additional works with the use of special equipment are required. The being appeared in media outlets information about the technical state of air vessel, connected with its operation in China proceeds neither from the committee nor from the specialists of technical commission POPPY.
In the composition of commission participate the representatives Of [rosaviatsii], [Rosaeronavigatsii] and other specialists of civil aviation. In accordance with the Convention on International Civil Aviation (appendix 13 “the investigation of aviation incidents and incidents”), will take part the representatives of the USA as developer and producer of aircraft, France as the developer of engine, and also Great Britain as the representative of [lizingodatelya] and state of registration.
Official information about the work of technical commission and corresponding results will be placed on the site of intergovermental aviation committee.
Technical commission POPPY continues the necessary volume of the works of the stage of the field investigation on the spot of incident. Entire flying and technical documentation of aircraft is studied by commission, is analyzed the information of the means of the ground-based of the inspection, including of radar piloting of air vessel.
With inspection and opening of onboard registrars in the technical center POPPY was discovered serious damage of both the tape-drive mechanisms of both the vocal and the parametric of chart recorders. For the interpretation of records taking into account their poor state additional works with the use of special equipment are required. The being appeared in media outlets information about the technical state of air vessel, connected with its operation in China proceeds neither from the committee nor from the specialists of technical commission POPPY.
With inspection and opening of onboard registrars in the technical center POPPY was discovered serious damage of both the tape-drive mechanisms of both the vocal and the parametric of chart recorders. For the interpretation of records taking into account their poor state additional works with the use of special equipment are required. The being appeared in media outlets information about the technical state of air vessel, connected with its operation in China proceeds neither from the committee nor from the specialists of technical commission POPPY.
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AAIB involved in investigation
AAIB Press Release
AAIB Press Release - 16 September 2008
AAIB PARTICIPATE IN RUSSIAN AVIATION ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION
The Air Accident Investigation Commission of Russia's Interstate Aviation committee (MAK) is leading the investigation into the accident to a Boeing 737-500 that crashed near Perm, Russia, on 14 September 2008. The aircraft (VP-BKO), operated by Aeroflot-Nord but registered in Bermuda, was on a scheduled flight from Moscow to Perm with 6 crew and 82 passengers on board all of whom are reported to have received fatal injuries.
The UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB), assisting the Governor of Bermuda (a British Overseas Territory) under the terms of a Memorandum of Agreement, has dispatched two Senior Inspectors of Air Accidents to participate in the investigation. Representatives from Bermuda's Department of Civil Aviation are acting as advisors to the AAIB team.
AAIB PARTICIPATE IN RUSSIAN AVIATION ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION
The Air Accident Investigation Commission of Russia's Interstate Aviation committee (MAK) is leading the investigation into the accident to a Boeing 737-500 that crashed near Perm, Russia, on 14 September 2008. The aircraft (VP-BKO), operated by Aeroflot-Nord but registered in Bermuda, was on a scheduled flight from Moscow to Perm with 6 crew and 82 passengers on board all of whom are reported to have received fatal injuries.
The UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB), assisting the Governor of Bermuda (a British Overseas Territory) under the terms of a Memorandum of Agreement, has dispatched two Senior Inspectors of Air Accidents to participate in the investigation. Representatives from Bermuda's Department of Civil Aviation are acting as advisors to the AAIB team.
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Unless said GPS innacuracy over Russia is the result of jamming or spoofing, it is nor readily apparent why GPS accuracy over Russia (or ANY specific area on the earth)is any different from one place to another.
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This one is official (like directive), italics mine
source local but reasonably reliable
....
Flight was with no anomaly until completing 4th turn (I reckon to final?) with no anomalies reported (neither pilots nor ATC).
After competing 4th turn (to final), distance 13 km (from runway) at altitude 600 meters aircraft begun intensive climb, at distance 8km and 1100 meters
ATC commanded to go around (or do you call it "missed approach"?) because aircraft went outside the designated approach profile.
Crew did not acknowledge. Aircraft started to descend rapidly while turning left (although approach schema requires right turn).
... found fully destroyed ...
... skipped weather data ...
... skipped aircraft make and certification ...
Two deferred items as per MEL,
1. TCAS inop
2. 12 sep 2008 auto thrust disconnected (disabled) ....
All flights with A/T inop are suspended until further notice.
Flight was with no anomaly until completing 4th turn (I reckon to final?) with no anomalies reported (neither pilots nor ATC).
After competing 4th turn (to final), distance 13 km (from runway) at altitude 600 meters aircraft begun intensive climb, at distance 8km and 1100 meters
ATC commanded to go around (or do you call it "missed approach"?) because aircraft went outside the designated approach profile.
Crew did not acknowledge. Aircraft started to descend rapidly while turning left (although approach schema requires right turn).
... found fully destroyed ...
... skipped weather data ...
... skipped aircraft make and certification ...
Two deferred items as per MEL,
1. TCAS inop
2. 12 sep 2008 auto thrust disconnected (disabled) ....
All flights with A/T inop are suspended until further notice.
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I wouldn't trust eyewitness` reports about engine fire. Sometimes they report about UFO... 
It could be pumpage caused by high AOA during stall.
A message of the russian aviation authorities has been published today. It describes all technical and weather detailes but the most interesting and important is the fact that autothrust had been disabled on this plane on Sept 12th, one day before it crashed.
This failure is described in MEL and it's allowed to fly without AT but the authorities prohibited it until further instructions.
Don't want to make any conclusions but it gives some information to think about...
It could be pumpage caused by high AOA during stall.
A message of the russian aviation authorities has been published today. It describes all technical and weather detailes but the most interesting and important is the fact that autothrust had been disabled on this plane on Sept 12th, one day before it crashed.
This failure is described in MEL and it's allowed to fly without AT but the authorities prohibited it until further instructions.
Don't want to make any conclusions but it gives some information to think about...
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I wonder how we ever managed to fly without auto thrust on the classics?
Anyway let's wait for the offical investigtion report. Then let's forget it and wait for the information leak. Unfortunatelly quality of air-crash investigations has fallen dramatically during last 10-15 years in Russia. Too much money are involved and it's so hard for investigators to stay independent...
BUT all secrets reveal soon or later
Last edited by demid; 17th Sep 2008 at 12:11.
Unfortunatelly quality of air-crash investigations has fallen dramatically during last 10-15 years in Russia.