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kenya airlines 737-800 missing

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Old 8th May 2007, 02:25
  #161 (permalink)  
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Early investigation focuses on engine failure

Investigators combing through the wreckage Monday focused on the possibility the jet lost power in both engines during a storm and tried to glide back to the airport before plunging nose-first into the swamp.
........
After being delayed an hour by storms, the Nairobi-bound Boeing 737-800 sent a distress signal shortly after takeoff from Douala early Saturday, then lost contact 11 to 13 minutes later. It took searchers more than 40 hours to find the wreckage, most of it submerged in murky orange-brown water and concealed by a canopy of trees.
A coast guard officer, Capt. Francis Ekosso, said late Monday that one of the two flight recorders had been found, a development that could help investigators determine what happened to Flight 507. He did not know the device's condition or whether it was the data recorder or the cockpit voice recorder.
Officials said it was too early to tell what caused the crash, but investigators concentrated on the stormy weather as a possible contributor.
Experts were considering a theory the jet's two engines flamed out because of the weather and the craft did not have enough altitude to glide back to the airport, said an official close to the airline's investigation in Kenya's capital, Nairobi. He agreed to discuss the matter only if not quoted by name because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
More:
http://www.newspress.com/Top/Article...12435640386957
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Old 8th May 2007, 03:16
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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News from Seattle (former home of Boeing):
Underlined area is my emphasis.

Kenya Airways crash raises many questions

Whatever happened on Kenya Airways Flight 507 that caused the new Boeing 737-800 to crash in an African jungle over the weekend could open a new chapter in jetliner accident investigations.

If the crash turns out to have been caused by mechanical failure, it would be the first involving several newer jetliner models from Boeing and Airbus that have exceptional safety records.

But the accident could also have been weather related, pilot error or even sabotage, an aviation expert said.

So far, there are only questions about why the plane went down shortly after taking off Saturday from Douala in the West African nation of Cameroon. It was headed for Nairobi. All 105 passengers and nine crewmembers were killed.

"At this point, it's a smoking-hole mystery," said John Nance of Tacoma, a former 737 pilot, author and aviation safety consultant for ABC news.

"We know we have lost one. We have no idea why."

He discounted press reports from the scene that the plane may have lost power in both engines while flying through a storm.

Whatever the cause turns out to be, this is hardly the kind of jetliner crash that for years has raised concerns about aviation safety in Africa. Typically, those accidents involved old jets operated by airlines with questionable maintenance and safety records.

Kenya Airways is highly regarded. It is experiencing phenomenal growth and has been moving aggressively to modernize its fleet. The airline was the first in sub-Sahara Africa to operate Boeing 777s and has ordered nine of Boeing's 787 Dreamliners.

And the 737-800 that crashed was not an aging plane. It was new, delivered by Boeing last October to Singapore Aircraft Leasing Enterprise, which leased it to Kenya Airways. The airline took delivery of two more 737-800s from the leasing company last year.

The jet that crashed had accumulated fewer than 500 cycles, according to Boeing. Each time a plane takes off and lands counts as one cycle.

This was only the second crash ever of one of Boeing's next-generation 737s in which passengers were killed. The first occurred in the heart of the Amazon jungle over Brazil in September when a 737-800 operated by Gol collided at 37,000 feet with a private jet. The private jet did not have cockpit equipment turned on that could have alerted the pilots they were on a collision course with the airliner.

All 155 people onboard the Gol 737 were killed. The private Legacy business jet, manufactured by Embraer, managed to land despite significant damage.

The Gol 737-800 was even newer than the Kenya Airways 737-800. It had been delivered to the Brazilian carrier by Boeing only a month before the mid-air collision.

Until the Gol accident, the only fatal accident involving a next-generation 737 occurred when a Southwest 737-700 was unable to stop after landing in a snowstorm at Chicago's Midway Airport. The plane went through a fence at the end of the runway and hit at least two cars, killing a 6-year-old boy in one.

Boeing makes four next-generation 737 models -- the 737-600, -700, -800 and -900. The first to enter airline service was the 737-700, with Southwest in December 1997.

Rather than an all-new design, these next-generation planes are based on the older "classic" 737s, but with extensive improvements and new systems.

More than 2,000 next-generation 737s are in operation with airlines around the world. The 737-800 entered airline service in the spring of 1998. It has become the best selling of the next-generation models. Through April, airlines had ordered 2,174 of the 737-800s, according to Boeing. About 1,000 of those have not yet been delivered.

Four other Boeing and Airbus planes that entered airline service in the 1990s -- the 777, 717, A330 and A340 -- have never had fatal accidents.

Boeing's 777, the company's last all-new jetliner, entered service in 1995. About 600 have been delivered to airlines around the world. The A340 and the A330 have been flying passengers since 1993. More than 700 are in operation.

Aviation experts say the lack of fatal accidents with these newest jets underscores the advances that have been made in aviation safety.

And that's what is puzzling about the Kenya Airways crash, said Nance, the safety consultant and former 737 pilot for Alaska Airlines.

Early media reports said investigators are focusing on weather. The plane apparently had delayed its takeoff for about an hour because of a storm.

James Ouma, chief pilot for Kenya Airways, told reporters that the Douala airport does not have weather radar. But the 737-800 has its own weather-radar system.

The Associated Press quoted an official close to the investigation as saying the jet may have flown through an intense storm that caused both engines to fail and the pilots were trying to glide the stricken jet back to the airport.

But Nance said the wreckage pattern does not fit that kind of accident. The 737 apparently nose-dived into a swamp about 12 miles from the airport. Unless the pilots stalled the plane, Nance said, it should have been able to make a crash landing in the jungle. But the accident scene suggests a more catastrophic impact, he said.

One possibility, Nance said, is pilot disorientation. But the 737-800 has instruments that would have warned the crew they were getting close to the ground.

"They would have to be really out to lunch for that to have happened," Nance said.

Massive flight control failure is another possibility, Nance said, but such an accident would be unprecedented for this kind of plane.

Sabotage is more likely, Nance said, or an accidental explosion in the baggage compartment.

Even an attack on the cockpit crew can't be ruled out, Nance said.

The National Transportation Safety Board in the U.S. said it is sending a team to the crash site to help in the investigation. So is Boeing.

The 737-800 carried two black boxes that will help investigators determine the cause of the crash, assuming they are found and the critical data can be retrieved. One black box would have recorded conversions in the cockpit between the two pilots and the sounds of any alarms going off. The other is the flight data recorder, which will tell investigators what was happening with the jet's hundreds of systems, including the engines and flight controls.

Boeing said the flight data recorder on the jet is one of the latest models and was able to record 1,000 parameters of information. For investigators, that could provide a gold mine of clues about what went wrong.

The Associated Press quoted a coast guard officer as saying late Monday that one of the jets' two black boxes had been recovered.
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Old 8th May 2007, 04:06
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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News from Seattle (former home of Boeing):
Underlined area is my emphasis.
That is quite a news story, all things considered.

Please identify th paper or other medium where this was published?
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Old 8th May 2007, 04:19
  #164 (permalink)  
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To answer one question in page 4,
Would a magnetic anomaly detector, i.e. one of those things you hunt subs with on Nimrods, P3s S3s etc detect a large metal mass ?
It would detect surface or underground anomalies/geological variations.
So yes.


Now back to the crash theories.
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Old 8th May 2007, 05:27
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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I found it interesting as well.

Arcniz, that story was from the Seattle Post.
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Old 8th May 2007, 06:25
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Arcniz, that story was from the Seattle Post.
Thanks vapilot2004. With that kind of press, Seattle sure is one serious aviation town. More power to 'em.
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Old 8th May 2007, 08:23
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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As everyone is speculating how about this.

AP disconnect in turbulence, aircraft aggressively tossed around in same turbulence, two pilots new to the newly introduced pfd/nd combo option. (previous fits efis...fact). Loss of orientation /scan..unusual attitude followed by loss of control.

I bring this up only as the previous report mentioned the dreaded pilot error.

These 800s were new the pilots may have been still bedding in on the pfd. Overload may have screwed with their scan.
Not being judgemental just thinking back to my first few hrs on the pfd pr any new scan.
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Old 8th May 2007, 08:56
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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The original of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer article about the accident is here :

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/busine...2_crash08.html
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Old 8th May 2007, 09:14
  #169 (permalink)  
 
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Farty. Two airline pilots beaten by dissorientation and lose it in a classic spiral into the ground?????? Come now guys..........Really!!!??
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Old 8th May 2007, 09:36
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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When I flew in this part of Africa for one of North Africa's best airlines, it was common for airliners, including my 727-200, to be greatly overloaded. I am not claiming that airline operators are deliberatley party to this dangerous practice, rather that they are not interested enough to actually do something about it. Typical overloading that I have witnessed is huge weights of hand luggage. One also wonders how much check-in luggage is counted as standard weights and how much understating of cargo weight occurrs.
I have also personally observed a pilot, who knew his aircraft was overloaded, take-off downwind on a hot day because it was convenient for his departure track. Instead of max take-off power on the brakes, a standing start from idle power showed disregard for the risk. Rotation at 10K below V1 was needed to get airborne in the remaining runway length. There is always the chance for out of range C of G under these circumstances as the load & balance calculations are a myth.
Space for baggage / cargo is the accepted limiting factor, not weight. An aircraft is considered just like a flying truck.
Of course this type of activity would need to be driven by corruption and we all all know there is no corruption in Africa.
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Old 8th May 2007, 10:03
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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Balmy: It can indeed happen... I believe spatial disorientation was the cause of Sharm El Sheick's crash a few years back. Not saying it's the cause here, though.

Autoflight: Hmm... It sounds like we flew for the same African operators... Good description! I would hope though that a reputable airline like Kenyan would have better practices than this... Even though anybody can be badly loaded without it even showing on the loadsheet... It wouldn't be the first time on the continent that an airplane takes off way overloaded without the pilots even knowing about it...

Anyways, who knows what happened...
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Old 8th May 2007, 10:38
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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Treetop.....Naahh......2 airline drivers overcome by spatial dissorientation and unable to catch it before they go farming......from probably 12,000ft+ (or at the very least 8,000 odd)........Nnaaahh......now you are scaring me.....????

If this were to be a possibility we would seriously need to review the way we do things in this industry.

We obviously dont know yet what caused it and dont have many clues but..........Apparently no radio call....... 20 odd miles from take-off.......and it seems they made a big hole....... but my guess is it would have to have been sudden and very serious. I dont think this is an double flame-out, or an A/P disconnect. Something went bang or broke big time.
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Old 8th May 2007, 11:32
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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Spatial disorientation can't be discounted. We don't like to think it happens, but check it out.

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Old 8th May 2007, 11:42
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Different type and era. However, it can happen anywhere. If memory serves me right, these guys didn't have time to make a Mayday call. From ASN:

Status: Final
Date: 06 OCT 1981
Time: 17:12
Type: Fokker F-28 Fellowship 4000
Operator: NLM Cityhopper
Registration: PH-CHI
C/n / msn: 11141
First flight: 1979
Total airframe hrs: 4485
Cycles: 5997
Crew: Fatalities: 4 / Occupants: 4
Passengers: Fatalities: 13 / Occupants: 13
Total: Fatalities: 17 / Occupants: 17
Airplane damage: Written off
Location: near Moerdijk (Netherlands)
Phase: En route
Nature: Domestic Scheduled Passenger
Departure airport: Rotterdam Airport (RTM/EHRD), Netherlands
Destination airport: Eindhoven Airport (EIN/EHEH), Netherlands
Flightnumber: 431
Narrative:
During the weather briefing (44 minutes before take-off) the crew was warned for an area with thunderstorms with 3/8 cumulonimbus at 1200 feet, wind 210 /15-25 knots and 5km visibility. At 17:04 the F-28 took off from Rotterdam for a flight to Hamburg via Eindhoven. At 17:09 the crew noted heavy rainfall in thunderstorms on the weather avoidance radar and received clearance to avoid this area. At 17:12 the aircraft entered a tornado, which resulted in loads increasing to +6.8 G and -3,2 G. The right wing separated and the aircraft crashed out of control out of 3000 feet.


Events:

Weather - Turbulence/crosswind etc - (no windshear)
Airplane - Airframe - Wing
Result - Loss of control

Sources:
Willem Wendt
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Old 8th May 2007, 11:48
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Overloading ....

Just note that with a load of 105 pax the aircraft was only about 2/3 full, and even less compared to certified maximum capacity. I know this doesn't account for weight/balance issues, fuel load or cargo, but not full on the pax side and presumably baggage in proportion.
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Old 8th May 2007, 11:50
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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Danger underestimate weather

Balmy,

I have an idea you know Africa but sounds like you underestimate the weather up in that part of Africa.....the sort of weather between Disdo the 11 nm ILS reporting point for rwy 30 and the runway itself will swallow a B737 and spit it out in kit form, so the chances of disorientation in severe turbulence can not be ruled out....

Sounds like they took off in severe thunderstorms and downpour.....loosing control of that size aircraft so close to the ground was fatal, not enough height to recover.

Anyhow it was a sad day for aviation and family of those who lost their loved ones, hope they will find what went wrong on that night

R
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Old 8th May 2007, 11:55
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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Auto & Treetop

I spent many hours watching folks like you in LOS at the old (new old, not old old) term, Ikeja side. I'd sit and wonder, hey chaps got a load sheet?. Maybe we had a Guiness & Gulda together in the Hungry Man at the Ikeja Airport Hotel (our Hilton the new block at the back & the disco!!) back then. 'twas the GPA guys with the 73s that really made me laugh, "get the **** off my feckin aeroplane, yer feckin moron, yer too feckin fat fer the feckin door"

Not good times, but glad I did it and learnt a hell of allot.
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Old 8th May 2007, 12:02
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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Balmy,
Two UK accidents......Embraer E110 Bandeirante, ex Leeds and Classic B747 ex Standsted both lost with after A/H problems and crew becoming disorienated. It happens................nobody is perfect
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Old 8th May 2007, 12:15
  #179 (permalink)  
 
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Crew Disorientation

Witraz,
In fairness to all crew I think we should state that the STN B747 crash was caused by the Captain's disorientation, his insistance on focusing on his ADI, ignoring the comparator horn, and his refusal to return the banking despite his FO's screams - Clearly more to do with CRM than simple disorientation of the whole crew...
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Old 8th May 2007, 12:22
  #180 (permalink)  
 
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balmy,
On the subject of upset and loss of control generally
I have seen much disorientation by all types of pilots in the sim 400 to 14000 hrs etc. The 800 with pfd option is a new configuration for kq intuitive scans take time to develop. High stress levels before that ,and it goes to rat**** quickly. Watching my own airlines upset training with familiar pilots in the sim was entertaining. watching guys new to the pfd plant aircraft after efato is also amusing in the sim. who knows it may have played apart.
It only takes one wrong or aggressive input after a sudden disconnect and upset to put the whole thing out of kilter to the point that the best you will do is pull the wings off in 10000 feet.Many things can cause an upset.
This is not about a skill thing its human factors and disorientation.Even with upset training its bloody hard to push thru and get a grip before structural limits are breached. Its not a c172 unusual attitude its potentialy a **** load of energy out of control quickly
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