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Adam Air lost contact

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Adam Air lost contact

Old 6th Jan 2007, 09:45
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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Weather!!

Please God there may still be some hope of survivors from this loss.

One thing that strikes me, at a first glance and pre empting the accident reports, is the number of large public transport lost in severe weather over the last 12 months.
1....737-200 Africa (Nigeria I think)
2....Tu 154.(just north of Black Sea, Russian Carrier I think)
3.....Now Adam air with severe weather the prime suspect.

Perhaps with Global Warming severe weather is becoming more severe, or perhaps we really need, as an industry, to press for a re-evaluation of pilots and operators methods and strategies for dealing with same.

While some I fly with are very weather conscious, others leave a lot to be desired.

This is a general comment on severe weather ops and in no way suggests that the Adam Air crew were negligent in relation to this issue.

God speed the SAR mission.
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Old 6th Jan 2007, 12:01
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Old China,

You could be right, read the thread about continued ops at EDI on New Years Eve when the winds were gusting 55-85KT, and in the event of an emergency the slides would have been horizontal down the side of the aircraft. In one case the wind was too strong to open the cargo doors, but the aircraft still departed outbound pax to LHR, with inbound pax bags still in hold, and outbound pax bags left in EDI

It is rumoured that recently an LHR inbound short haul, flew right through the storm which was busy creating the tornado that knocked the roofs off of a whole street.

With the multiple back up systems and fantastically strong designs of Mr Boeing and Mr Airbus, and all of the automation available together with first class training of crews, flying on modern fleets with reputable airlines appears to be almost workable in those conditions.

However on the outside of the herd are less reputable operators, with less cash, lower standards for crews and very old equipment, where the cockpits have a similar level of backup and automation as the light twin that I fly (not very much). I think that as worse weather has crept up on us, it may now be beggining to pick off those whose safety margins are already significantly eroded.

Perhaps you are right and there needs to be a review, before the conditions start to bite the main part of the herd.
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Old 6th Jan 2007, 14:05
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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Phsycics are getting involved !!

It's getting better and better !

"Searchers slaughtered a buffalo in a traditional ceremony and consulted psychics Friday, the fourth day after an Adam Air jetliner went missing over Sulawesi."



http://www.thejakartapost.com/detail...106.@01&irec=0
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Old 6th Jan 2007, 14:54
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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Phsycics are getting involved !!

Let's leave science out of it, the Psychics are now looking!
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Old 6th Jan 2007, 18:32
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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interesting snippet

Interesting snippet in the online edition of Der Spiegel (German newsmag, usually quite reliable).

In brief, the article states that the ELT has stopped transmitting today , but more interestingly paraphrases the last known transmission by the 737 as 'we are fighting crosswinds and need reliable coordinates'. If true, a hint of a nav system malfunction ?
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Old 6th Jan 2007, 19:35
  #106 (permalink)  

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If Der Spiegel says that the transmitter stopped transmitting at a certain time, then it also should know approximately from where it was transmitting, shouldn't it?

Re the NTSB, the FAA and Boeing, they are there mostly as window dressing. You can be sure the NTSB is not going to hold a public news conference on this one.

As far as the psychics and shamons are concerned, they also have to make a living. Yet on another subject, I don't think this incident has anything to do with global warming.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 03:39
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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Cool

Hello,

If Der Spiegel says that the transmitter stopped transmitting at a certain time, then it also should know approximately from where it was transmitting, shouldn't it?
Well.... not at all....
If Der Spiegel.. know as many of us...how long is the battery duration after the safety device is triggered.... (begin to emit if any......) it's no need of psychics for know the end of transmission (if any...)

Just a tough ....

Regards.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 06:10
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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The ELT wont work very well if it's at the bottom of the ocean!
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 10:23
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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Guys, I posted this comment from Der Spiegel not because of the ELT, but because of the (if true), last known transmission by the 737: 'we are fighting crosswinds and need reliable coordinates'.

In view of a previous AA 737 going hundreds of miles off course because of faulty navigation equipment, I think this is the interesting part of the article.

Has this been reported elsewhere?
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 16:59
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Perhaps someone can clarify something that may be puzzling others besides myself. Unctuous’s post No 48 and other linked maps show an elliptical flight path, around the south of Sulawesi, rather than a direct one which would have been pretty much over the centre of the island. Would that have been the usual route or would this one have been influenced by weather?
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 18:00
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by broadreach
Unctuous’s post No 48 and other linked maps show an elliptical flight path, around the south of Sulawesi, rather than a direct one which would have been pretty much over the centre of the island.
I don't know that this is the case for this specific flight, but the shortest distance between two points on a sphere (e.g., the Earth) will appear curved when translated to a flat two dimmensional map using some charting techniques.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 18:07
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Aerocat, it had occurred to me as well that it might be the projection but I don't think it's the case here. Prior to posting I checked Google Earth which, when you zoom in, tends to smooth that distortion out.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 18:10
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You're right, I just got a straight piece of paper and marked out the great circle track on a globe. It would've looked pretty much like a straight line on that map, so that's not the reason.
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 18:47
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LatviaCalling
If Der Spiegel says that the transmitter stopped transmitting at a certain time, then it also should know approximately from where it was transmitting, shouldn't it?
Re the NTSB, the FAA and Boeing, they are there mostly as window dressing. You can be sure the NTSB is not going to hold a public news conference on this one.
As far as the psychics and shamons are concerned, they also have to make a living. Yet on another subject, I don't think this incident has anything to do with global warming.
Would you like to clarify your point about the bolded above?
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Old 7th Jan 2007, 22:28
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The line on a map depicting the great circle will certainly be a straight line in this case, because the entire intended route in very close to the equator and even crossing it. there is no curving-distortion that you may see on trans-atlantic flights for example.

The stupid curved flightpath is complete nonsense and drawn by a journo...
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 03:16
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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ELT transmissions

What amazes me is that there was no transponder fixes. Given the comments on Adam Air Maintenance it could be faulty. With the newer ELT there is a broadcast on 406 to the SAR Satellite system that would give a very specific GPS position. One must consider either that the ELT was not working or it went into the water.

In the water there is a Pinger attached to the FDR and or the CVR which activates in water, but the search group must have a receiver. That is a question that very few address until the need arises, unfortunately.

I'm sure the FAA / NTSB and other agencies will assist with technical help as will Boeing. Of course their main interest is to find the reason for the crash and evaluate wether there is a manufactor or regulation change to be recommended.

Good luck to the search parties.
JerryR
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 05:12
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JerryR
With the newer ELT there is a broadcast on 406 to the SAR Satellite system that would give a very specific GPS position. One must consider either that the ELT was not working or it went into the water.
The ELT in question more than likely had no position input option installed. Without GPS/IRS input data to the ELT, immediate location is not possible. We must then rely on multiple satellites to triangulate.

The triagulation method requires several birds to be 'in view' (xx degrees above the horizon and within the bird's footprint) and relaying the ELTs signal. Some of the satellites required can be out of view for an hour or more. Even in a situation where all birds are in view, there will not be an immediate resolution of the ELT position. It can take some time and multiple transmissions to accurately interpret the broadcasts from the ELT although this is usually not more than a few minutes.
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 06:11
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172 driver has a point


let's just say that all the fancy and semi fancy nav stuff quit...and indeed the x winds aloft were bad.

and no radar coverage.

does anyone recall a crappy airline (can I say crappy?) called SPIA? (south pacific island airways).

there were stories that the one 707 they had was flown on trans oceanic routes with just a whiskey compass for nav.

now let's say, just for argument's sake, that this operation didn't keep things up to snuff nav wise on this 737? And the plane is hundreds of miles from the area of search. it may be sheer luck that eventually finds this plane.


or maybe some sharp guy with real winds aloft information and a hunch...


oh well, I prefer flying over land...you can always read the name of the town on the water tower.


(ps...does anyone remember that movie about the c47 /dc3 that was lost...decided to follow the coastline till they found a town...even their compass wasn't working...turned out they were following the coastline of an island and kept going round and round...YIKES)
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 07:32
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Originally Posted by vapilot2004
The triagulation method requires several birds to be 'in view' (xx degrees above the horizon and within the bird's footprint) and relaying the ELTs signal.
The "triangulation" or positioning of the ELT signal is done with only one satellite using a Doppler shift of the signal due to the satellite moving in relation to it. There is no need for multiple satellites to be in view of the ELT (this is a feature of the GPS system instead). However, with the 121.5 MHz signals there is a need for a second pass to resolve on which side of the satellite ground track the ELT is, due to the lower frequency making giving less separation between shifts on the sides due to Earth's rotation.
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Old 8th Jan 2007, 09:21
  #120 (permalink)  
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Navy ships searching for missing Indonesian jetliner finds metal on sea bed
The Associated Press: January 7, 2007

MAKASSAR, Indonesia: An Indonesian navy ship has detected metal on the ocean floor that might be the wreckage of a jetliner that disappeared one week ago with 102 people on board, a top commander said Monday.

A more sophisticated U.S. Navy ocean mapping ship taking part in the search for the Boeing 737 was heading to waters off Sulawesi Island's western coast to do a more detailed survey, said Gatot Sudijanto.

"If that metal turns out to be what we are looking for, then thanks be to God," Sudijanto, adding it was found in three locations within a several kilometer radius at a depth of 1,500 meters to 2,000 meters.
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