Aerospace Notebook: 'Father' of 747 says it might endure

[ukwannabe]

Having flown the B747 100/200/400 combi, pax, freighter and extended range freighter, you can't beat it...in my opinion. Whichever deivative it just looks right, and I still turn my head around after deplaning to look at it. The ERF is a wonderful aircraft, long legs and will carry almost any reasonable commercial cargo. The A380 is like the jumbo's ugly fatter sister, again in my opinion. How true is the urban legend that the A380 will be an autoland aircraft primarily? If that is the case then I can't see true pilots wishing to fly it. The last 50 feet is what makes the job the most fulfilling, using the seat of your pants, and not your eyes to read the FMA's, just my opinion.

[panda-k-bear]

Focal, won't all those packages balk at having to slide down from the top deck of such an enormously high upper deck?

Earl, it'd cost a darn sight more to only fly it during peak season and leave it sitting on the ground for 8 months a year.

[AUTOGLIDE]

The A380 will do just fine. The 747 will go down is history as the aircraft that brought long haul travel to the masses, but in 10 years the 747-400 will look ancient compared with A380, much like a 747-1/200 does with a -400. Times change!

[Onan the Clumsy]

If you want size and cargo ability (and elegance), then how about:



Sorry I don't have photoshop or I could have painted her white replaced the swastikas with a red and blue stripe.

[Onan the Clumsy]

But in fairness both demises were the result of enemy action.

[Bomber Harris]

I guess if a couple of airline pilots were in a bar and they overheard two budding ppl's with 15 hours flying between them discuss how to flare a 747 and get a greaser....they would have chuckle at the misconceptions...

I wonder what aircraft designers and marketeers who devote their life to this subject make of us guys and gals, who have been trained to move the switches and grapple with the controls, give comment on how they are messing up a multi billion dollar industry.......

however....it would be a boring industry without comment!!!

[HowlingWind]

both demises were the result of enemy action.

We're talking about the Hindenberg and the Titanic here, are we not?

Please explain how these events were due to "enemy action."

Thanks in advance.

[RogerTangoFoxtrotIndigo]

747 adv will probably be dead by Tuesday

You can quite easily bolt a 5m fuse plug on to a 747-400 but meeting QC4 will mean an end to the tripple slotted flaps which will mean a new wing design. A billion or 2.

Then you have to work on that seat mile thing with oil at $48 dollars per barrell.

And while in on it a lot of bull is written about the huge number (555) of passengers that will be cramed in like cattle, well JAL have been putting 569 passengers in a 747-400 since 1991 boeing and American neigh sayers seem to have forgotten that.

Anyway the 747adv could well be dead by tuesday if CX as come to the A380 launch party as is being strongly rumoured. JAL, BA and SAA will then be forced to join up to compete on level terms and all prestige launch customers for the 747Adv will be gone. BA would be murdered if all its profitable routes were serviced by competitors A380's.

I am convinced that some of the leasors have already placed orders for BA.

[MarkD]

One area 744Fs have had to partially cede to the Antonov is large engine transport because of the width of the fans, requiring less disassembly to make them fit. Are 380s going to be able to carry these engines or is the max width similar?

[Hand Solo]

BA would be murdered if all its profitable routes were serviced by competitors A380's.

Pure speculation. That assumes the passengers positively prefer the A380 to the 744, something we know nothing about at this stage.

I am convinced that some of the leasors have already placed orders for BA.

Not according to the two board members I've spoken to in the last six weeks.

[RogerTangoFoxtrotIndigo]

BA would be murdered if all its profitable routes were serviced by competitors A380's.

Pure speculation. That assumes the passengers positively prefer the A380 to the 744, something we know nothing about at this stage.

>>>> Passengers prefer cheap flights. BA will be facing A380's to SIN SYD DXB JFK BKK and maybe HKG and NRT

I am convinced that some of the leasors have already placed orders for BA.

Not according to the two board members I've spoken to in the last six weeks.


>>>> Dont know who you are but I doubt if any directors would be giving that kind of information out to drinking buddies.

[Hand Solo]

No but they're quite willing to discuss the aircraft with the flight crew they meet, indeed I've found them very pro-active in visiting the flight deck whenever they're on BA metal. No orders for A380 until at least 2009, 747advanced still firmly in the frame, the board want to see what the reality of the A380 is in service rather than relying on projections. Besides there's certainly no point having it in service before T5 is up and running as current BA infrastructure at LHR just can't cope with it.

As for passenger preferring cheap flights, well there's a lot more goes into the equation than just fuel burn and not all of BAs customers are price driven. The airline seems to have coped reasonably well with the 744 on many routes versus competition from the A340 and 777, both of which are more efficient aircraft. If you start from scratch with a 380 and a 744 the 380 will win, but compare starting from scratch with a 380 with a sizable established 744 fleet and the economics are less clear cut. You also seem to have missed the point that we can't fill a 380 to DXB and the SIN, BKK, and HKG routes leave LHR late at night and arrive LHR early in the morning so the aircraft will have to sit around at LHR unused all day. That does not help lower ticket prices!

[RogerTangoFoxtrotIndigo]

Well if BA are not planning to order before 2009 they will not be in service until 2011/12 which seems a long way off. I don’t see it like that, if the A380 is a success it will bring down ticket prices OR maybe VS/SQ will give a few extra inches of legroom and fly a premium economy main deck, for those who don’t buy on price. BA's hand will most likely be forced well before 2009, delivery slots being limited (unless they already have an arrangement)

The point is that a prudent carrier should keep flexible and make contingencies.

747Adv still in the frame? Explain please. How can it be in the frame when its not even on the drawing board, or are you talking about the 747-500, 747-600, 747-700 or the 747QLXR (which could be delivered to airlines in 2003 according to an article I found web crawling), are RR going to build an engine for it, they don't offer one for the 747-400ERF. Get real, we have seen the last 747 derivative.

[Hand Solo]

The point is that a prudent carrier should keep flexible and make contingencies.

747Adv still in the frame? Explain please

Self explanatory really. Nothings ruled in, nothings ruled out, and that's straight from the very highly placed horses mouth. Seems pretty flexible to me. If Boeing offer a new 747 derivative BA will look at it and do the maths. Perhaps BAs hand will be forced, but if they're going to buy the 380 they have to buy LOTS. Just a dozen or so won't do, they'll need a big fleet and someone to take the old 744s off their hands too. It doesn't look theres a great deal of forcing going on at the moment, especially as VS have delayed the delivery of their 380s by 18+ months.

[Onan the Clumsy]

Please explain how these events were due to "enemy action"

Well the Hindenburg was destroyed by a bomb placed there by a group who wanted to remove some of the glory the Nazis were experiencing around the world. Unfortunately it was late arriving and so blew up before all the passangers were de-derigibled. (at least that's what this book I read said).

As for the other one, in the words of Mrs Mittleshmit "That's where my claim falls to the ground" Titanic you say. I thought it was the Lusitania. Enemy iceberg?

[422]

Change is good,
That is what makes this industry so vibrant and exciting.

Some changes did turn out below expectations, but
still the lessons learnt far out weigh the anti-change sentiments.

Give the 380 a chance ,
seat back , relax and enjoy the show.

Look on the bright side, if Airbus falters , we still have good old
744 to see through the day.

So how much is the bet: ladbrooks any one?

salute the 79.8m wing-span.

[747FOCAL]

RogerTangoFoxtrotIndigo,

It's not that RR does not offer an engine for the 747-400ERF.

RR would love to put the RB211-524G/H on it. The 747-400ERF did not get deriv engines from GE and Pratt did it?

Maybe you should ask the folks under the flight path at Heathrow why there is no offering for the RR engine on the 744ERF.