Pessimistic outlook from Bell:

Bell sees delayed recovery in commercial helicopter market
And the latest delivery stats for the third quarter from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association show a 25% year-on-year slump in turbine helicopter deliveries.

I/C

I/C,

I broadly agree with the general 'lower for longer' outlook. However, that is predicated on today's events; tomorrow's events can lift that price in a heartbeat. I think a geo-political change with negative impact on the global oil supply is more likely than a huge advance in alternatives to hydrocarbons in the next 2 years.

I/C and MGD locked in a close battle to see who breaks 1600 posts first....

Everybody seems to think that the FAIR price for oil is in the US$100+ level; it isn't. The price today is the same as 2004 adjusted for inflation and before that IT WAS LOWER, at times a lot lower. I don't seem to remember offshore pilots crying over their futures then.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I...ices_Table.asp

I certainly wasn't, I was raking it in.

minigundiplomat,

Very true. Which makes a farce of the high-priced, mass-produced 10-year forecasts which fill my spam folder most months (even Honeywell now only projects within a 5-year forecast horizon).

nowherespecial,

Woo-hoo! It's been a while since I looked at my post c...

http://i.imgur.com/2dbnEFn.jpg

:E

I/C

Completely Agree

NWS,

You're so banal - like I'd post just to reach a number......

Rotor & Wing Magazine :: Bristow Says Offshore Sector Faces Unmatched Headwinds

Not just CHC facing problems. If BRS are struggling to make any money with their pretty sensible capital structure, other operators will have more pain to bear first in a lower for longer environment.

'And it's MGD at the line by 3 posts'... Well done guys. A pleasure to watch 2 heavyweights duke it out.

Helicopter services firm HNZ Group shares sink on dividend suspension
I/C

That is not stopping NHV opening a base in Aberdeen in the faces of CHC, Bond and Bristow.

They have to have somewhere to park all the idle 175s they bought....

ABZ is a declining market at the moment; still big but shrinking. The fields are mature and the oil companies there are more open minded than ever to share cost on helicopters. Why NHV think now is a good time to get in is anyone's guess. They've had a year almost to delay this, maybe contracts mean that they had to 'take delivery' of it but there are so many other places their money could be spent.

Surely that capital would have been better spent on the Ghana work they already are on or tendering for?

Did any one else notice.....
 

That, unlike in the not too distance past, a terrorist event such as t'other day would have caused oil to rise......strange how we've all been taken for mugs for so long.
I guess it will rise when the Saudis say it will.
Bad news for those who produce meaningless forecasts.

Nowherspecial with such crystal clear insight and business strategy why are you not the MD of a multi national........?

Nowherespecial is certainly correct regarding Aberdeen. The 'consultations' with the offshore workforce regarding rota changes are now working towards their end points. The number of flights required for a 2 on, 3 off rota versus 3 on, 3 off will see a pretty dramatic reduction in flying - and those changes are only going to really kick in over the next couple of months. The reductions to date have been driven by the cuts in drilling and project support.

Most operators have already been through two phases of 'cost/headcount reduction'. The helicopter operators are further down the grapevine and that is coming their way.

It will be a considerable time before offshore rotas go back to 2 and 3.

DB, working on it. Although I detect sarcasm.

As the NS is such a high cost environment its difficult to see rosters reverting even if/when the oil price goes back to $100+.

Good to see competition coming to replace those aged AS332Ls.:)

Where have you seen any Ls recently!?

Obviously with the lesser clients who hopefully now will finally be moving to Shell's 7/7=1 strategy.

One could opine that the OEMS have missed a trick. H771 or B771 have a nice ring about them;)

Don't feed him please.