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Hill Helicopters HX50

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Hill Helicopters HX50

Old 5th Jan 2024, 09:33
  #1441 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by topradio
For me that's the very definition of a Ponzi
Not really...
A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new investors. Ponzi scheme organizers often promise to invest your money and generate high returns with little or no risk. But in many Ponzi schemes, the fraudsters do not invest the money.
As far as I can see it's simply a case of a few investors actually being speculators.
It's the way the world goes round...
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Old 5th Jan 2024, 10:47
  #1442 (permalink)  
 
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I heard Hill took another 200 orders at the recent two day Duxford 'launch'.

​​​​​​Its uncertain how many ordered the fiberglass blades though .
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 02:05
  #1443 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VM325
Not really...


As far as I can see it's simply a case of a few investors actually being speculators.
It's the way the world goes round...
Agreed. The two additional units I bought are more speculative. No different than the stock exchange. If you wanna bet on a pony, go for it. If I were as devious to develop a ponzi this articulate, I would have ran by now. Mr Hill seems pretty content to stick it out. Crab man, if you had the extra cash, tell me you wouldn’t be interested yourself. You seem to be the most vocal naysayer…
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 04:43
  #1444 (permalink)  
 
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Crab man, if you had the extra cash, tell me you wouldn’t be interested yourself. You seem to be the most vocal naysayer
Crab has been in the industry long enough to see airframe and engine manufacturers of long, long experience having difficulties with new products. I remember the S-76A and the troubles with its engine, the famous BBQ plates installed to prevent a double engine failure following an incident which did just that, got to make more single engine landings than I care to remember as the engine matured, the loss of a good friend at Aberdeen when a rotor blade came off due to inadequate design/engineering was a high light.

I wish Hill all the very best and hope they have a trouble free introduction to service, but on the other hand I would not be surprised to read these pages one day detailing an fatal accident caused by airframe or engine engineering issues. A new engine in a new airframe is double trouble, as the S-76A showed.
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Old 6th Jan 2024, 07:01
  #1445 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jetexec
Crab man, if you had the extra cash, tell me you wouldn’t be interested yourself. You seem to be the most vocal naysayer…
To be fair, there are a few others who feel similar to Crab and who definitely have the money.

But what's the point in repeating the same concerns and issues for the Hillievers to dismiss because JH told them it will all be alright?

If a few people have hesitated over handing cash over to Hill because of what they read in this thread, I guess I would regard that as a victory.

And as always, if we're all wrong and JH pulls the rabbit from the hat, I for one am happy to plead for forgiveness. But we are WAY away from that point, the hard yards are still to be done by Hill.

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Old 6th Jan 2024, 14:42
  #1446 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by megan

I wish Hill all the very best and hope they have a trouble free introduction to service, but on the other hand I would not be surprised to read these pages one day detailing an fatal accident caused by airframe or engine engineering issues. A new engine in a new airframe is double trouble, as the S-76A showed.

Magan, I can agree with this. I have told many that the day that one of these new helicopters records it's first flight, the stock will certainly go up. The day one crashes will leave a hole in many hearts, no matter the cause-while we wait for the details of the crash while investigators do their thing. I can remember the first couple R66 crashes.......the world waited with anticipation while the investigators probed through the cause. I don't think that the 66 had any inherent design problems, and that most incidents were pilot related just like most cases. I'll never deny that there are will be design problems and setbacks. I don't post here to defend my decision to invest, I only post to put a positive spin on someone doing something that to me appears plausible. We'd be stuck in the dark ages if no one stuck their neck out to improve on what we have. How many "kickstarter" projects reach fruition? I know that the few I had thrown money into did not, but at least someone tried to create something new with some great ideas. I personally have bet on some bad ponies. Calling it a "kickstarter" is probably a better comparison than describing it as a ponzi scheme, but it is all good banter. The Jetranger has a weak tail rotor (I missed an actual incident by 10 minutes this past Boxing Day where one was written off), 214ST threw blades, the S76 (as already stated) had issues. Hell, the 407 I fly had early issues, and it took some lives until the problem was resolved. So yes Magan, I can agree with what you say. There will be risk and some will become test pilots, I just don't agree with calling it a Ponzi. In knowing Jason, I think that is unfair. In running my own business, I have heard the phrase "we can't do that" so many times that I honestly think we could have gone by the way of the Dodo bird had I had listened to all the doubters. There are some people out there who have a vision and an intelligence level to do things that others can't visualize, but maybe they don't have the means ($$) to get it done. In Hill's case, I think he put it all together by have a unique design, and secondly, by hiring his marketing team (Ruban and Mischa). Those are two ingredients that are necessary to produce anything new. Again, I'm not here to 'pump my own tires'. I met a lot of people from around the world at the event who were entrepreneurs and had business savvy. For most, it was not the last of their deposable income that they were investing, but for some it was. The truth is, if you sell 12-1300 widgets of any kind that took several years to procure, there will be some along the way whose circumstances change in the blink of an eye that would prompt them to sell their investment. Some are speculators, but in the case of others, all it takes is a bad report from your Doctor or maybe a disolvement of a marriage to change your investment strategy in the blink of an eye. We all know someone like that I bet. We are susceptible to anything. I wish only success to the Hill team and all the investors! Hell, I wish all of you success in your endeavours!
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Old 7th Jan 2024, 11:54
  #1447 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jetexec
"If you had the disposable money, would you consider purchasing a Hill Helicopter?". This poll (if answered honestly by the brave anonymous posters) may shake out many living with champaign dreams on beer budgets.
If I had such disposal money, then first a PPL(H), then check if still enough disposable money for a Gazelle plus say 10 years of funds for fuel, parts and maintenance. Bliss. If still disposable money thereafter, yep, would be willing to risk a deposit on a HX50 and support the venture. Oh, but it is beer budget for me, having just purchased a used 90 size RC helicopter!! Think I can afford fuel and replacement parts for it... 👍
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Old 7th Jan 2024, 21:35
  #1448 (permalink)  
 
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I also bought two more HC50 slots after the event, for the £150k final retail discount. They’re up to 1200 orders (combined HX/HC) as of 1-2 weeks ago.

I don’t plan on accepting delivery of these. They are pure investment. I’ve already paid the deposits, which helps fund the certification efforts which will be long and expensive. I think there’s low technical risk, and medium time risk (read: it will take longer, but it will happen), which is fine by me. I will sell my slots to somebody in 5-10 years who wants to jump the 2-4 year queue for their business. The finance (holding) cost is around half the deposit but only a small percentage of expected profits.

I am essentially arbitraging the information asymmetry, my risk profile versus others, financial position and age/investment horizon.

Nobody is forced to buy anything. If you do your own research and you want one, get one. If you think it’s bull****, then buy my slots in 8 years. I’ll be happy to sell to you for a queue-jump premium above current retail price.
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 02:29
  #1449 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Shagpile
I am essentially arbitraging the information asymmetry, my risk profile versus others, financial position and age/investment horizon.
Speculative investments are like that: high risk - high reward animals. and yes the way you keep the edge is by having a better inteligence on the risk reward factor. I just question the quality your information asymmetry, I don’t think its enough to mask out the risks pending. risk of non completion, risk of major design shortcoming, risk of time horizon running way over expectation ....

The new crop of hill buyers-investors are like angel investors believing in a new model - hoping to make money on on that vision?

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Old 8th Jan 2024, 11:13
  #1450 (permalink)  
 
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It’s nothing like Angel investing, which is investing large amounts of money into early stage high risk of failure startups (usually new untested ideas at the forefront of tech). Investors write off most of their investments and hope for the one or two 10-100x unicorns for their returns.

Hill Helicopters is more akin to a “normal” company. Making a machine that is made up of tried and tested ideas using modern manufacturing techniques. Relatively simpler path and predictability from R&D to product prototype to production. It’s a well defined outcome state to success (make the damn thing fly, certifiable, then mass produce it!).

Not to say these things aren’t hard, but there’s far fewer unknown unknowns that have historically been proven to be solvable.
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 16:03
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Originally Posted by Shagpile
Not to say these things aren’t hard, but there’s far fewer unknown unknowns that have historically been proven to be solvable.
But at what costs and eventual profitability?

From a technical standpoint, as someone who has designed multiple clean sheet rotors and blades, the machined aluminum grip-horn in addition to the CF retention and bearing approach gives me pause. And where is the blade tooling or info on the layup (not the FG, wood, and foam ones from the mockup reveal)? Fatigue test setup for any of these rotor components?
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 17:45
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Originally Posted by SansAnhedral
But at what costs and eventual profitability?

From a technical standpoint, as someone who has designed multiple clean sheet rotors and blades, the machined aluminum grip-horn in addition to the CF retention and bearing approach gives me pause. And where is the blade tooling or info on the layup (not the FG, wood, and foam ones from the mockup reveal)? Fatigue test setup for any of these rotor components?

Aluminium blade grip? Really?
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 18:10
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Originally Posted by 212man
Aluminium blade grip? Really?

Check out 5:19 - hard to tell if it is even peened (?)
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 19:35
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"Shagpile , 7th Jan 2024 22:35
I also bought two more HC50 slots after the event, for the £150k final retail discount. They’re up to 1200 orders (combined HX/HC) as of 1-2 weeks ago.'

Is it your personal cash or are you an investment manager gambling other peoples .money?
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 20:53
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Originally Posted by SansAnhedral
https://youtu.be/8sB4lE6tQaU?t=318

Check out 5:19 - hard to tell if it is even peened (?)
Not sure how you were able to work out the material just from a video clip? Keep in mind that this initial assembly may only to be to test construction of a concept so need not be final materials or surface treatments.
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 20:57
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1,200 orders, about £60 million in deposits, and no running engine, nothing tested, no blades, no running gearbox, and no factory.

That's quite an achievement.




Last edited by hargreaves99; 9th Jan 2024 at 09:28.
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Old 8th Jan 2024, 21:07
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I have no skin in the game, I will never have enough spare cash to buy one even if I wanted to (I don't).

My criticisms come from knowledge of helicopters (of which I have some) and not my knowledge of investing (of which I have none).

If he does it, then fair play, but I don't think what will be produced will be what was originally promised and the investors will have to suck up the shortfalls in capability and performance.
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 03:12
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Originally Posted by 212man
Aluminium blade grip? Really?
Has worked for years on the H500 - there are no blade retention loads in the grip only pitch change and pitch bearing axis. Retention is though the strap pack which are nickel steel by the looks. H500 "grips" or pitch housings for the correct term are cast Mg alloy and basically this is a copy.

Mr Hill is right there is nothing new in the head and mast. Depending on the circumstances there could be technology "licencing" or "patent" issues?

The swashplate control levers look like they fell off a H135 or 145!
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 08:14
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Originally Posted by RVDT

Mr Hill is right there is nothing new in the head and mast. Depending on the circumstances there could be technology "licencing" or "patent" issues?
Then what was that BS few months ago when Hill couldn't talk about his new rotor head until patent protection is done?
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Old 9th Jan 2024, 08:53
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Originally Posted by admikar
Then what was that BS few months ago when Hill couldn't talk about his new rotor head until patent protection is done?
It's just taken me less than a minute to search for the patent in question.
Here's a clue.
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