Hill Helicopters HX50

[DroneDog]

I wish them the very best, so many great innovations are there in the cockpit design and layout.

[helihub]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

I get the impression a lot of the people who have paid deposits view it as an "investment" and have no intention of owning/flying one. Either they "sell" their place in the order queue when production starts, or they sell the aircraft when they take delivery.

You are assuming that the paperwork a purchaser signs when placing a deposit allows the trading of "their place in the queue". It would never surprise me if Hill have adopted the practice some supercar manufacturers use whereby a purchaser cannot sell until X months/years after taking delivery

[Agile]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

I get the impression a lot of the people who have paid deposits view it as an "investment" and have no intention of owning/flying one. Either they "sell" their place in the order queue when production starts, or they sell the aircraft when they take delivery.

In business I studied an investement model for what is called "real options"
in oposition to the options related to financial security, real options are attached to something "real"

its the participation you take in a project those outcome is uncertain, an oil driller commonly issue real option to finance drilling for oil.
no oil is found you lose the money, or, on the other hand, if oil is found and you make out big.

Valuation of real options is a complex science, but one could put together an intresting financial case study on that.
although I assume most investor in the HX50 rely on gut feeling.

[hargreaves99]

Factory planning decision delayed again....

Now delayed until 25th May 2023

Planning Applications - Staffordshire Moorlands District Council

About 200 public objections and about 5 in favour

[hargreaves99]

http://publicaccess.staffsmoorlands....ageName=322186

It looks like Environmental Health have raised concerns about noise and site contamination issues.

Recommendation and Conditions

Environmental Health cannot make a recommendation for approval at this time due to a lack of detail / information in the application, notably with regard too;
• Amenity – Further clarification is required on helicopter movement in and out of the site and timings for operations for the reasons stated above.
• Contamination & Construction
- Further clarification is required as to the differences in the proposed site size / layout / activity and the previous scheme, to understand if the agreed investigation (Eastern side) and remediation strategy for “Phase 1b .remain applicable (conditions 25 and 27)

etc

[HeliHenri]

.
thank you for monitoring almost daily all the news about this so sensible subject on this forum called "The mysterious project HX50".
.

[pba_target]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

http://publicaccess.staffsmoorlands....ageName=322186

It looks like Environmental Health have raised concerns about noise and site contamination issues.

Recommendation and Conditions

Environmental Health cannot make a recommendation for approval at this time due to a lack of detail / information in the application, notably with regard too;
• Amenity – Further clarification is required on helicopter movement in and out of the site and timings for operations for the reasons stated above.
• Contamination & Construction
- Further clarification is required as to the differences in the proposed site size / layout / activity and the previous scheme, to understand if the agreed investigation (Eastern side) and remediation strategy for “Phase 1b .remain applicable (conditions 25 and 27)

etc

That's not "concerns" per se, that's a pretty standard request for more detail. The only thing I'd say is that it's probably a sign Hill doesn't have a decent planning consultant, otherwise they'd have nailed the amenity section at least, unless they're being deliberately vague to give themselves wiggle room later.

[hayes67]

Originally Posted by helimutt

I have to agree. Is this a teenage / youth product with a YouTube backend or is it a serious product for a serious targeted audience? If I was in the market place I’d be switching off after 30 seconds of that.

Just watched another update and while I'm extremely excited about the whole process and have nothing but admiration for Jason, I have now hit the bloody point where I have to skip huge chunks to avoid the kid..... please make him go away!!

[hargreaves99]

I notice a distinct lack of updates regarding the engine, gearbox, blades etc

[206 jock]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

I notice a distinct lack of updates regarding the engine, gearbox, blades etc

But there's a video on Youtube that shows one bearing being produced for the gearbox. To be fair it shows how much process goes into creating each bearing...something that Hill will have to do for every component in the main gearbox, the head, the t/r gearbox, the engine, the starter motor etc etc.

There's another of the monthly sessions later today. No doubt the Hillievers will be lapping it all up...

[Bell_ringer]

Originally Posted by 206 jock

No doubt the Hillievers will be lapping it all up...

Does that make us Hillistines?

[hargreaves99]

You Tube

Some quotes from Jason Hill

"company is very strong financially"...
"an order book worth £308 million"...
"whatever happens we are never going to run out of money"...
"there is no danger that this helicopter won't be delivered"..
"nothing will stop this helicopter getting to market"
"as with all development programmes, the risk that you take, and the risk that's very clear in the contract is that it takes a little bit longer than we say it's going to take"
"the first flight is scheduled for the end of this year"

[Bell_ringer]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

"company is "very strong financially"...
"an order book worth £308 million"...
"whatever happens we are never going to run out of money"...
"there is no danger that this helicopter won't be delivered"..
"as with all development programmes, the risk that you take, and the risk that's very clear in the contract is that it takes a little bit longer than we say it's going to take"

Presumably he can only get his hands on the cash when they actually start shipping a product, until then they have to exist on the deposit revenue which is finite with new orders levelling off at some point. In any case we are already a quarter in to 2023, so he better get his skates on if he intends anything to fly this year, an ambitious task since they are still polishing the ballbearings..

[Agile]

Originally Posted by Bell_ringer

an ambitious task since they are still polishing the ballbearings..

Very applicable joke! I don't get why such a focus on doing everything himself, and still believe that he has way too much on his plate.
Then he sticks with so many distractions, the door lock seriously?!!! who cares...

That said the fact that he has real airframes to show is a big lift, that helps him a lot in getting credibility.
The engine, the rotor head and the avionic, once I see that I could turn more positive.

[206 jock]

"as with all development programmes, the risk that you take, and the risk that's very clear in the contract is that it takes a little bit longer than we say it's going to take"
"the first flight is scheduled for the end of this year"
Lol, as my son would say. Make s a mockery of all the other promises too really.

I had a PM from CRAN last October, before I figured out that he was Jason (funny that this poster has been VERY quiet since I called him out). He said " it might take a bit longer than they are aiming for...most things in the engineering business do"

If there is a flight before the end of 2023 I will eat my hat and my shoe. And if there is a flight before the end of 2024, I'll still eat my hat, but not my shoe.

As Agile says above, why does Jason feel the need to do EVERYTHING in the business? That's not healthy from a product or a financial perspective.

[SansAnhedral]

Originally Posted by hargreaves99

Some quotes from Jason Hill

"company is very strong financially"...
"an order book worth £308 million"...
"whatever happens we are never going to run out of money"...
"there is no danger that this helicopter won't be delivered"..
"nothing will stop this helicopter getting to market"
"as with all development programmes, the risk that you take, and the risk that's very clear in the contract is that it takes a little bit longer than we say it's going to take"
"the first flight is scheduled for the end of this year"

[hargreaves99]

this question/answer made me smile

[nikoel]

Are you kidding me? Accepting orders with Bitcoin? No risk, trust us bro? It's almost as if they don't even care about appearing legitimate anymore. Those other quotes feel like they are coming from a crypto exchange right before a recent collapse that is headquartered in the Caribbean.

Even Tesla, with all their resources, knew they needed to start with a solid platform (Lotus Elise) so they could focus on designing the engine and battery. And despite their seemingly foolproof strategy, they still faced failures until Musk continuously pumped money into the project. Hill, on the other hand, has a much more challenging vehicle with far fewer resources, yet they're directing some of their attention towards ball bearings and door latches. Have these smaller, peskier issues like I don't know blades, engine, avionics, a software suite been already solved

It's understandable for someone outside the company to question why there are so many artificial and/or self imposed obstacles in the design and manufacturing process. According to what was posted in 2020, a prototype was supposed to be flying last year. How can they realistically expect to have a finished product by the end of 2023 when they can't even create a carbon shell in three years?

I genuinely hope for those who pre-ordered your helicopter this is not the case with Hills, but this reminded me of an other unrelated man of ill intent who was in a similar position; cashing out progressively via a handsome salary whilst simultaneously trying to attract as many people as possible for their their deposits. He used those pre-orders to gain grants and loans. When after a few years the inevitable happened because the money stopped flowing, threw their hands up and loudly proclaimed 'Yes we tried! We were real innovators here, and whilst we failed today we were not afraid to try. Thank you to everyone who believed in us'

[Jetexec]

Originally Posted by nikoel

Are you kidding me? Accepting orders with Bitcoin? No risk, trust us bro? It's almost as if they don't even care about appearing legitimate anymore. Those other quotes feel like they are coming from a crypto exchange right before a recent collapse that is headquartered in the Caribbean.

Even Tesla, with all their resources, knew they needed to start with a solid platform (Lotus Elise) so they could focus on designing the engine and battery. And despite their seemingly foolproof strategy, they still faced failures until Musk continuously pumped money into the project. Hill, on the other hand, has a much more challenging vehicle with far fewer resources, yet they're directing some of their attention towards ball bearings and door latches. Have these smaller, peskier issues like I don't know blades, engine, avionics, a software suite been already solved

It's understandable for someone outside the company to question why there are so many artificial and/or self imposed obstacles in the design and manufacturing process. According to what was posted in 2020, a prototype was supposed to be flying last year. How can they realistically expect to have a finished product by the end of 2023 when they can't even create a carbon shell in three years?

I genuinely hope for those who pre-ordered your helicopter this is not the case with Hills, but this reminded me of an other unrelated man of ill intent who was in a similar position; cashing out progressively via a handsome salary whilst simultaneously trying to attract as many people as possible for their their deposits. He used those pre-orders to gain grants and loans. When after a few years the inevitable happened because the money stopped flowing, threw their hands up and loudly proclaimed 'Yes we tried! We were real innovators here, and whilst we failed today we were not afraid to try. Thank you to everyone who believed in us'

I'm #24 on the order list and still feeling good. I love reading the posts shooting this project down. If you're right, I owe you one, but if we had to rely on all naysayers to hold things up, nothing in the world would be a success. Who would have figured Elon would blast astronauts in the atmosphere after only starting an electric car company. Here's a thought, anyone posting a negative thought, tell us first how many atoms you've split in your lifetime. I would love to hear your success stories.

[Bell_ringer]

Originally Posted by Jetexec

I'm #24 on the order list and still feeling good. I love reading the posts shooting this project down. If you're right, I owe you one, but if we had to rely on all naysayers to hold things up, nothing in the world would be a success. Who would have figured Elon would blast astronauts in the atmosphere after only starting an electric car company. Here's a thought, anyone posting a negative thought, tell us first how many atoms you've split in your lifetime. I would love to hear your success stories.

That should come with a whataboutism warning.
The comparison to Musk does sum up the Hilliever pysche quite well, it has become quite a religion to the anointed.
But, since you drew the comparison, Musk didn't need punters money to make it work, it also took him quite a long time to get anything into the air, successfully. Plenty of failures along the way. Doing new things takes time, and there will be setbacks.
Iirc Elon also had the common sense not to try make his own ballbearings.

To be clear, to the cult members, no one is wishing for Hill to fail, quite the opposite, but there is just a whiff of BS that permeates everything they release into the public domain, so that is something Hill actually has in common with Musk.