AW139 Crash in Bahamas - 7 Killed

[megan]

My money is on this was a mechanical failure caused event....rather than the stock CFIT thing

Not a betting person SAS, but one thing I know is it doesn't matter how much experience one has, you're only as good as your last flight, the next may prove to be the one you cock up right royally. Can recall two 747's that barrel rolled on take off at night into the dirt (water in one case), one a freighter and other a pax, no survivors.

[sprag47]

Boeing 747, Air India flt 855, 1 Jan 78. Departed Bombay on a moonless night out over the Arabian Sea. 213 pax, 18K-hour captain. A mile offshore climbing through 1200' MSL and rolled almost inverted and hit the water 35 deg nosedown at 380 mph. Captain's ADI failed but he ignored the standby and the 1st officer's ADI. 1st officer pretty much just sat there in disbelief, apparently.

[gulliBell]

Originally Posted by Thomascoupling

...1st officer pretty much just sat there in disbelief, apparently.

Yep. Seen that all the time in the simulator. They won't say or do anything to save themselves at the critical moment they should be taking affirmative action to save themselves. They arrive at the scene of the smoking hole in silence, sitting on their hands. Although sometimes, flicking through a checklist and not much else (not suggesting of course that scenario applied in this AW139).

[sprag47]

Originally Posted by gulliBell

Yep. Seen that all the time in the simulator. They won't say or do anything to save themselves at the critical moment they should be taking affirmative action to save themselves. They arrive at the scene of the smoking hole in silence, sitting on their hands. Although sometimes, flicking through a checklist and not much else (not suggesting of course that scenario applied in this AW139).

Nor was I suggesting the same cockpit scenario for the AW-139 tragedy....just that some really bad s..t can happen very quickly even with the best pilots and equipment.

[Bell_ringer]

Both scenarios are feasible. Given the conditions and phase of flight, CFIT has claimed many a good man in similar circumstances. Equally, two experienced pilots in a capable aircraft going out this way would raise other questions.
In either case, it is pretty vulgar betting beer on the cause of death of 7 people.

[industry insider]

Sas wrote:

My money is on this was a mechanical failure caused event....rather than the stock CFIT thing

If it was a serious mechanical failure, it could have wide ranging (temporary) consequences for the 139.

[gulliBell]

That depends on what they find...a previous repair or maintenance issue specific to this particular aircraft wouldn't affect the rest of the 139 fleet. It might be as simple as something not bolted on properly, or whatever.

[industry insider]

That depends on what they find...a previous repair or maintenance issue specific to this particular aircraft wouldn't affect the rest of the 139 fleet

Really? Thanks for pointing that out to me.

“Could” used to indicate a possibility.

”Temporary” lasting for only a limited period of time; not permanent

[gulliBell]

You were right, I wasn't disputing anything. A serious mechanical failure could have wide ranging consequences for the 139. As it did for the 169.

[FC80]

Not only is Crab the best pilot in the world, he’s also the best parent in the world!

is there anything he can’t dole out patronising post-event wisdom on?

[SASless]

it is pretty vulgar betting beer on the cause of death of 7 people.

If we were making wagers before the event....I would agree with you to an extent.

How many times have you flown with someone and thought to yourself....."This guy is going to kill himself one day!"...knowing he might just have passengers with him when he does?

If you did think that and said nothing to anyone....especially the nimrod in question at the time....then I see that as doing just that...wagering on the manner of death of people in the future.

[Kiwi500]

I’m with Bell Ringer on this.....rumour mill, forum or whatever, betting pints on who is correct on this doesn’t sit well. We accept that families and loved ones looking for answers on here is not their best move but whether it be mech failure or CFIT it’s the same result. I’m always happy to shout a pint for anyone more experienced or proficient than I (which I am always hopeful is most) that would share their knowledge so I’m hopefully never the subject of a bet. Think about it boys and girls.

[Viper 7]

I'm in the CFIT camp on this one.
This incident has all the holes in the cheese. Dark night, black hole departure, possible circadian rhythm, and perceived pressure from the medical event.

[[email protected]]

Well done FC80, that added a great deal to this thread - you must be so proud.

[Toroidal Vortex]

Crab, is your skin getting a bit thin with age? Don't dish it out if you can't take it

[[email protected]]

Originally Posted by Toroidal Vortex

Crab, is your skin getting a bit thin with age? Don't dish it out if you can't take it

Hmmm, first post Toriodal Vortex to support a knob comment from FC80??? Never seen that before, a new nomdepprune being used to try and save face............

Hardly thin-skinned and I'd love to see where you think I dished it out to deserve such tosh.

Love and kisses.....

[sea plane]

It was a moonless night down here. I do not think it was CFIT (Controlled Flight Into Terrain). This accident speaks more of a spatial disorientation with Uncontrolled Flight into the water due to the level of destruction to the aircraft. We see this all the time down here on moonless nights, transitioning over land to over open water.

Anyone that says these pilots were too experienced to have that happen... you need to reassess yourself and realize it can happen to any pilot regardless of time and experience. If a pilot is not current in the exact conditions of this night then they are at risk. It can happen to any of us.

I flew that night. It was DEEP IMC over the water. DEEP, DARK. Challenging flight conditions for sure. I fly the moonless nights over water regularly down here. It is hard core.

It was 2 am, factor in the time, fatigue, pressure....it can happen to even the best, most experienced pilots. These guys certainly seem top notch but again, spatial disorientation with a very deep hole departure can lead to a crash for any of us....high or low time.

[etudiant]

It may be prejudice, but I'm in the mechanical failure camp. The tail being 500 ft from the main fuselage, after a low altitude crash into shallow water, seems difficult to explain otherwise.

Also in the back of my mind is a memory of an earlier Leonardo helo killing the management team of a major NJ casino by an unexpected rotor failure. It suggests they make Ferrari aircraft, super performing, but with frailties.

[Photonic]

Originally Posted by etudiant

It may be prejudice, but I'm in the mechanical failure camp. The tail being 500 ft from the main fuselage, after a low altitude crash into shallow water, seems difficult to explain otherwise.

I'm not a pilot, but I've hired helicopter pilots for photo shoots and I know that area, and similar places in South Florida and the Caribbean. It may not be that hard to explain the 500 foot distance if that's what it turns out to be. Tidal action can be very strong in shallow water, especially when funneled out of even shallower bays and inlets between islands. A separated tailboom is one of the lighter parts of a helicopter, so I think more information is needed about local tides and currents before assuming it's difficult to explain. The location of the separated main rotor blades, if they've been recovered, might offer some clues.

[sea plane]

Five hundred feet for scattering of aircraft debris (even large parts) is not very far when you consider a hard, uncontrolled impact in the case of spatial disorientation. Water can easily move/shift debris fields. We also have to take into consideration the first-moment scattering of aircraft parts that resulted from the actual, initial impact. Rescue personnel and investigators did not reach the scene until more than 12 hours after the accident. Things move. For all we know the aircraft hit the water and cartwheeled a distance as it broke apart.

I flew that night. It was a moonless night and hard core IMC. (July 2 was the new moon/no moon and this was just the night following). A perfect recipe for disorientation and and an uncontrolled crash into the water.