What would you do?
Thread Starter
What would you do?
One day your Safety Officer walks into your office and tells you "statistically we are do for a fatal accident." He predicates his statement upon the historical fleet average hours between fatal crashes. You have aircraft in forty-five locations consisting of a mix of VFR Single Engine Aircraft and IFR multi-engine aircraft.
As the Managing Director, what do you do?
As the Managing Director, what do you do?
Hovering AND talking
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Firstly, I would correct his English and explain that the word is "due" and secondly, I would explain statistics and probability to him! 
If I roll a die three times and get sixes each time, what is the probability of me getting a six on the fourth roll?
Assuming I'm running a tight ship anyway (all maintenance and training up to date etc), and that the operation has been accident-free for the last x numbers of years, I would ensure that complacency doesn't set in and that standards are maintained.
Cheers
Whirls
If I roll a die three times and get sixes each time, what is the probability of me getting a six on the fourth roll?
Assuming I'm running a tight ship anyway (all maintenance and training up to date etc), and that the operation has been accident-free for the last x numbers of years, I would ensure that complacency doesn't set in and that standards are maintained.
Cheers
Whirls
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1. Hire somebody so that i can blame him/her in case all turns down into pieces.
OR
2. Sell the company before that day comes
OR
3. Read a book to get even more up to speed on statistics, have a word with the training director / CP to check where we are in terms of standards _and_ following them and make sure all company regulations are in place and everybody in charge lives them to the standard required. If somebody does not comply (because he/she knows all better then anybody else), discuss it 1:1 and get rid of that person if they refuse to follow as long as your history is clean.
AND
4. Discuss the principles of statistics with your safety director (but make sure you got the basics from that damn book first, at least if he did).
OR
2. Sell the company before that day comes
OR
3. Read a book to get even more up to speed on statistics, have a word with the training director / CP to check where we are in terms of standards _and_ following them and make sure all company regulations are in place and everybody in charge lives them to the standard required. If somebody does not comply (because he/she knows all better then anybody else), discuss it 1:1 and get rid of that person if they refuse to follow as long as your history is clean.
AND
4. Discuss the principles of statistics with your safety director (but make sure you got the basics from that damn book first, at least if he did).
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Why do you ask?
If I was a manager, I would find this statement melodramatic and (personally) question my safety manager’s motives.
My response to these statements would be to sit my safety manager down and discuss the following:
What data is driving this statement?
What have we identified as the biggest contributors to these events?
What data/methods did you use to identify these risks/threats?
What is our current exposure to these risks/threats?
What mitigation have we implemented to reduce exposure to these risks?
Are there additional forms of mitigation/elimination we have yet to implement?
Which aircraft/locations do you feel are at the biggest risk?
What is it about these aircraft/locations that increase our exposure?
Is there anything we can do to minimize/mitigate exposure in these specific locations? Show me the data driving these statements.
If I was a manager, I would find this statement melodramatic and (personally) question my safety manager’s motives.
My response to these statements would be to sit my safety manager down and discuss the following:
What data is driving this statement?
What have we identified as the biggest contributors to these events?
What data/methods did you use to identify these risks/threats?
What is our current exposure to these risks/threats?
What mitigation have we implemented to reduce exposure to these risks?
Are there additional forms of mitigation/elimination we have yet to implement?
Which aircraft/locations do you feel are at the biggest risk?
What is it about these aircraft/locations that increase our exposure?
Is there anything we can do to minimize/mitigate exposure in these specific locations? Show me the data driving these statements.
Thread Starter
Whirls,
The existing company stats were based upon past occurrences which still resulted despite training, standards, etc meeting all requirements legal and administrative. The Safety guy has a point.....by risk analysis his numbers are correct...they are at the number of hours where an accident should be expected. The training guy and CP say they have met all the requirements, engineering says nothing is amiss in his shop. Yet the forecast remains.
If you average one fatal accident per year and it is thirteen months since the last one....would not even a bean counter sense the other shoe is waiting to fall?
You are a numbers cruncher among your many talents (plucking a Banjo not being one of them I hear), statistical sampling has a place in forecasting events within a business as evidenced by the use of Actuaries by insurance companies.
Should the MD take overt action or merely cross his fingers, stroke his rabbit foot, and whistle in the dark?
The existing company stats were based upon past occurrences which still resulted despite training, standards, etc meeting all requirements legal and administrative. The Safety guy has a point.....by risk analysis his numbers are correct...they are at the number of hours where an accident should be expected. The training guy and CP say they have met all the requirements, engineering says nothing is amiss in his shop. Yet the forecast remains.
If you average one fatal accident per year and it is thirteen months since the last one....would not even a bean counter sense the other shoe is waiting to fall?
You are a numbers cruncher among your many talents (plucking a Banjo not being one of them I hear), statistical sampling has a place in forecasting events within a business as evidenced by the use of Actuaries by insurance companies.
Should the MD take overt action or merely cross his fingers, stroke his rabbit foot, and whistle in the dark?
Hovering AND talking
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If you average one fatal accident per year and it is thirteen months since the last one....
What caused these accidents? They may have been one a year but were they all in, say, May? Was there a common factor?
I once heard (although I suspect it was an apocryphal tale) that the French Government realised that more schoolchildren were in killed in coaches in July than in any other month. So they made it illegal for schoolchildren to ride in a coach in July!!!
Cheers
Whirls
PS - Oi, I have a banjo gig tomorrow night so there
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If the organisation had taken no action following the previous events, then you may reasonably expect another event in the near future (or not - that's probability for you!). But it's highly likely that each event was followed by an investigation and changes to procedures - therefore making a recurrence much less likely.
Chief Bottle Washer
Originally Posted by SASless
One day your Safety Officer walks into your office and tells you "statistically we are do for a fatal accident." He predicates his statement upon the historical fleet average hours between fatal crashes. You have aircraft in forty-five locations consisting of a mix of VFR Single Engine Aircraft and IFR multi-engine aircraft.
As the Managing Director, what do you do?
As the Managing Director, what do you do?
Thread Starter
SP,
The question would be more along the lines of what are the folks in OZ doing right that every other airline appears to not be doing right that facilitates the Qantas safety record?
The question would be more along the lines of what are the folks in OZ doing right that every other airline appears to not be doing right that facilitates the Qantas safety record?
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The Safety guy has a point.....by risk analysis his numbers are correct...they are at the number of hours where an accident should be expected. The training guy and CP say they have met all the requirements, engineering says nothing is amiss in his shop. Yet the forecast remains.
A couple statistics however direct from the police driver's handbook which give pause for thought:
*if you have had an accident in one three-year period you are twice as likely to have another accident in the next three years
*if you have had an accident for which you could be held at least partly responsible, you are four times more likely to have a similar accident in the next year
... Drivers tend to repeat the type of accidents they have. if you have hit another vehicle from behind you are twice as likely as the average driver to do so again
I can only hazard a guess but I think it's likely that the same is true for aviation, do a small number of pilots account for a significantly larger number of accidents? Perhaps pilots who're happy accepting higher levels of risk, or pilots who don't learn from their mistakes? If so, conversely if you've gone a long period without having an accident it's likely you and others (eg engineering) are getting things right.
Also... yeah your Safety Officer could do with a lesson in basic stats; excluding factors such as complacency through familiarity, the probability of you having a fatal accident on your next flight is likely very similar to the probability of you having a fatal accident on the last few... since you've obviously survived this long I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it!!
Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult
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meeting all requirements legal and administrative.
So what has been done to get out of the "minimum" requirements
What has been done to, possibly, exceed the minimum
If nothing well??
If the organisation had taken no action following the previous events
Consider this, most of the AirLaw, SOP's etc you operate to were formulated as a result of accidents & exist for your Health & Safety when flying, so whats the problem on the ground??
I have been involved with H & S for years and take the view that it is there to ensure myself & my colleagues go home in the same "condition" we arrived at work in try that thought sometime!
Hovering AND talking
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Westie, I don't think anyone really has anything against Health & Safety per se but maybe they do have something against the manner in which it is implemented; certainly, I doubt anyone would blame it fpr their "woes"!!!
H&S in my office means we can't have kettles but have to use a water boiler attached to the kitchen wall. Fair enough you may think, but it has
been installed over a stainless steel draining board which means that any boiling water which drips onto it can bounce up to arm height!!! The same implementation which said I couldn't have my handbag by the side of my desk whilst not repairing the loose floorboards at the side!!!
However. statistics, probability and expectation theories can produce any "result" you want!!!
Cheers
Whirls
Anyway, what are you doing here!!!????
H&S in my office means we can't have kettles but have to use a water boiler attached to the kitchen wall. Fair enough you may think, but it has
been installed over a stainless steel draining board which means that any boiling water which drips onto it can bounce up to arm height!!! The same implementation which said I couldn't have my handbag by the side of my desk whilst not repairing the loose floorboards at the side!!!
However. statistics, probability and expectation theories can produce any "result" you want!!!
Cheers
Whirls
Anyway, what are you doing here!!!????
If you dont believe in stats then how about this approach:
The Safety guy walks in and hands you a paper with the following:
"The next aircraft accident for our company will be a ________________ involving (pilot) ______________."
Interesting this was given to us in an air assault unit. Since you know your peers, you may know who is at risk, weak aviator, hot dog...etc. If your name came up, the Safety guy pulled you aside, to make you aware of concerns and hopefully a chance to change it.
One source is data gathered from reports submitted from the bases (EMS company). You still would have flawed data in the reporting because someone will not submit a report if they feel it will be used against them later, not worth reporting or "better not say anything, self protection". Worst case nothing will change.
The Safety guy walks in and hands you a paper with the following:
"The next aircraft accident for our company will be a ________________ involving (pilot) ______________."
Interesting this was given to us in an air assault unit. Since you know your peers, you may know who is at risk, weak aviator, hot dog...etc. If your name came up, the Safety guy pulled you aside, to make you aware of concerns and hopefully a chance to change it.
What data is driving this statement?
What have we identified as the biggest contributors to these events?
What data/methods did you use to identify these risks/threats?
What is our current exposure to these risks/threats?
What mitigation have we implemented to reduce exposure to these risks?
Are there additional forms of mitigation/elimination we have yet to implement?
Which aircraft/locations do you feel are at the biggest risk?
What is it about these aircraft/locations that increase our exposure?
Is there anything we can do to minimize/mitigate exposure in these specific locations?
What have we identified as the biggest contributors to these events?
What data/methods did you use to identify these risks/threats?
What is our current exposure to these risks/threats?
What mitigation have we implemented to reduce exposure to these risks?
Are there additional forms of mitigation/elimination we have yet to implement?
Which aircraft/locations do you feel are at the biggest risk?
What is it about these aircraft/locations that increase our exposure?
Is there anything we can do to minimize/mitigate exposure in these specific locations?
There are no limits
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Our last accident was two years ago.
Before that we had one or two per year.
We do not expect to have another.
Perhaps we are doing the right thing by ignoring the statisticians !!
Before that we had one or two per year.
We do not expect to have another.
Perhaps we are doing the right thing by ignoring the statisticians !!
Hovering AND talking
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If you dont believe in stats then how about this approach:
The Safety guy walks in and hands you a paper with the following:
"The next aircraft accident for our company will be a ________________ involving (pilot) ______________."
The Safety guy walks in and hands you a paper with the following:
"The next aircraft accident for our company will be a ________________ involving (pilot) ______________."
Or, as in the case of the French Government, I'd sack the pilot and sell the aircraft; that way, I would know I'd never have another accident!!!
Cheers
Whirls